- 1.Image pageU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookBloomberg
BRIEF: EconomicsJoseph BrusuelasOctober 2012
2. Published by Bloombergs Economics Newsletter - Take a free
trial at Bloombergbriefs.comor enter BRIEF on Bloomberg
terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookImage page Summary
Executive Growth is tracking at 1.5 percent in the third quarter of
2012 Q412 growth of 1.5 percent vs. 2 percent consensus forecast
10-year rate likely range bound between 1.5- 2 percent EUR/USD
depreciation. $1.28 at year end Recession risk due to approaching
fiscal cliff The U.S. economy is downshifting amid broadening
globaldeceleration Job growth around 100,000 per month with slight
risk of unemployment rate rising to 8 percent by end of year Risks
to the outlook: External Sector: Euro zone, Middle East tensions
Public policy: 2012 impact from 2013 fiscal cliff Political
Economy: U.S. presidential electionEmail [email protected]
or call 212-617-7664 2 3. Published by Bloombergs Economics
Newsletter - Take a free trial at Bloombergbriefs.com or enter
BRIEF on Bloomberg terminal U.S. Q412 Economic Overview and
OutlookImage page Cyclical Growth Scenario Remains Intact Core
Scenario: Below Trend (2.5 percent) Growth Structural adjustment
continues Fiscal drag, household and public sector deleveraging
Elevated unemployment persists Modest consumption and low inflation
Email [email protected] or call 212-617-7664 3 4. Published
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Economic Overview and OutlookImage page Cyclical Growth Scenario
Remains Intact Alternative: The Long Malaise Liquidity trap
ensnares economy Policy Mistake: Premature fiscal & monetary
tightening Persistent deflation and deleveraging Low Probability:
Cyclical Outperformance Policy directed at 27 percent of first
mortgages in negative equity or near-negative equity positions
Acceleration in hiring quickly brings down unemployment Corporate
sector deploys cash Inflation risk Email [email protected]
or call 212-617-7664 4 5. Published by Bloombergs Economics
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on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and
OutlookBloomberg Consensus: Survey of ForecastersQ2 12Q3 12 Q4 12Q1
13 Q2 13 Q3 13Q4 13 Real GDP 1.70%1.80%2.00% 1.90%2.30% 2.50% 2.70%
CPI1.90%1.60%1.90% 1.70%2.00% 2.10% 2.10% Core PCE 1.81%1.70%1.80%
1.70%1.80% 1.90% 1.85% Unemployment 8.17%8.07%8.10% 8.10%8.00%
7.90% 7.80% Central Bank Rate0.25%0.25%0.25% 0.25%0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
2-Year Rate0.30%0.23%0.31% 0.37%0.45% 0.56% 0.69% 10-Year Rate
1.65%1.63%1.74% 1.90%2.05% 2.21% 2.41% EUR/USD 1.271.29
1.281.271.261.25 1.25%Email [email protected] or call
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terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookImage page Overview
U.S. Rates Bloomberg consensus forecast indicates higher 10- and
30-year rates. Fed Operation Twist to continue at $44 billion per
month pace Current Rates: 2-Year: .26 percent 10-year: 1.74 percent
30-year: 2.97 percent Fourth Quarter Consensus Survey Rate Forecast
2-Year: .31 percent 10-year: 1.9 percent 30-year: 2.85 percent Risk
to that forecast: Slowing U.S. economy Euro zone sovereign crisis
U.S. fiscal cliff Email [email protected] or call
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Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookJobs and
Growth 400 6Q412 Growth Tracking at 200 4Quarterly Average
(Percentage)Quarterly Average (Thousands) 0 2-200 0-400 -2-600
-4-800 Total Change in Employment (LHS)Real GDP Y/Y
(RHS)-1000-61995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 20092010 2011 2012 Source: BloombergR2=.77Email
[email protected] or call 212-617-7664 7 8. Published by
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Bloombergbriefs.com or enter BRIEF on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412
Economic Overview and OutlookLabor Market Slack58 11 Employment to
Population Ratio (LHS, Inverted) Unemployment Rate (RHS)59 10 960
861PercentPercent 762 663 564 465 3 1990 1992 1994199619982000 2002
2004200620082010 2012Source: BloombergUSERTOT, USURTOT INDEXEmail
[email protected] or call 212-617-76648 9. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookEmployment Snapshot Reflects Tough
Economy250225200 Includes September Household Survey 175 150
125Thousands 100 75 50 250 -25 -50 3-Month Average6-Month
Average12-Month Average -75 Total Change In Employment Private
PayrollsHousehold SurveySource: BloombergNFP TCH, NFP PCH, USEMNCHG
INDEX Email [email protected] or call 212-617-7664 9 10.
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Economic Overview and OutlookSlow Grind Back To Full Employment
Scenario 1: Structural Break Scenario 2: Cyclical Recovery 7%
NAIRU7% NAIRU5.5% NAIRU5.5% NAIRUMonthly Job Gains 151,000
151,000151,000 151,000Labor Force Participation
63.50%63.50%63.50%63.50%RateAverage Annual
0.92%0.50%0.92%0.50%Population GrowthYears to Full Employment 3
Years1.5 Years 7 Years 4 Year Email [email protected] or
call 212-617-7664 10 11. Published by Bloombergs Economics
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on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookPolicy
Uncertainty 300Policy Uncertainty Index1985-2007
Average=95.2European Sovereign Debt Crisis2008-Present
Average=164.3US Debt Ceiling Dispute 250Banking Crisis/Obama
Elected Lehman Bros/TARP9/11 200Balanced Budget Act 2nd Gulf War
Index 1St Gulf WarClinton EraFed Rate 150Cuts,
StimulusBlackMondayLTCM 10050 19861988 1990 19921994 1996 19982000
2002 2004 2006 20082010 2012 Source: policyuncertainty.comEmail
[email protected] or call 212-617-7664 11 12. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookProjected Path of Long- and Short-Term
Rates 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 Percent 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00
0.50 US 10-Year (LHS) 3-Month, 2-Year Forward (RHS) 0.00 Oct-07
Oct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11 Oct-12 Source: BloombergUSGG10YR INDEX,
G0025 2Y3M BLC2CURNCY Email [email protected] or call
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Bloomberg terminal U.S. Q412 Economic Overview and Outlook FX
OverviewImage page Dollar appreciation versus euro- and-trade
weighted basket of currencies eases: Near-term test of $1.30
against the euro Likely to move toward $1.28 by end of the third
quarter Euro zone recession supports modest USD appreciation Risks
to the outlook: Fiscal concerns at year end Weak labor market
outlook More forceful Fed actionEmail [email protected] or
call 212-617-766413 14. Published by Bloombergs Economics
Newsletter - Take a free trial at Bloombergbriefs.comor enter BRIEF
on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and
OutlookEUR/USD: Likely Test of $1.28 600 1.18 1.23 500 1.28EUR/USD
(RHS, Inverted) 400Basis Points 1.33 300 1.38 200 1.43 100
1.48German-Italian 10-Year Spread (LHS)EUR/USD (RHS, Inverted) 0
1.53 2011 2012Source: BloombergEUR Curncy, GDBR10, GBTPG10
INDEXEmail [email protected] or call 212-617-766414 15.
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Economic Overview and OutlookReal Trade Weighted Broad Dollar Index
115QE 1 Begins QE 2 QE 3 110 105 Index 100 95 90 20062007 2008
2009201020112012 Source: Bloomberg USTWBROA INDEX Email
[email protected] or call 212-617-766415 16. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookImage page U.S. Manufacturing Outlook
Manufacturing growth slowing Noticeable pullback in capital
expenditures Slower external demand US fiscal cliff Global
production decelerating Weak U.S. aggregate demand European
recession China recessionEmail [email protected] or call
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Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and
OutlookManufacturing Growth Slowing Noticeably Industrial
Production and Growth6.010.05.0 Y/Y Percentage Change (Quarterly
Average)4.05.0 3.0Y/Y Percentage Change2.0 0.0 1.00.0
-5.0-1.0-2.0-3.0 -10.0-4.0GDP CYOY Industrial Production-5.0 -15.0
1996 1998200020022004 200620082010 2012 Source: Bloomberg IP YOY,
GDP CYOY INDEXR2=.76Email [email protected] or call
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Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookSlower
Manufacturing Growth ISM Manufacturing, Services and Growth65.0 6.0
5.060.0 4.0 3.0GDP Y/Y Percentage ChangeIndex (Quarterly
Average)55.0 2.0 1.050.0 0.0 -1.045.0 -2.0 -3.040.0 -4.0ISM
Manufacturing Survey (LHS)Weighted ISM Manufacturing & Non-Man
(LHS) -5.0GDP Y/Y (RHS)35.0 -6.0 1998 2000200220042006200820102012
Source: BloombergNAPMPMI, GDP CYOY INDEXEmail
[email protected] or call 212-617-766418 19. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookCapital Expenditures Falling: Slower
Growth Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft 25 2015Year Over
Year Percentage Change1050-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 RecessionsCapital
Goods New Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft and Parts -30 2000
200120022003 20042005 2006 20072008 20092010 2011 2012 Source:
BloombergCGNOXAY% INDEXEmail [email protected] or call
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Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookGlobal
Manufacturing Cools65 160 0Y/Y Percentage Change (Index)55 050Index
045 040 035MSCI World Index (RHS)US ISM (LHS) China PMI (LHS)30Euro
Zone PMI (LHS) JP Morgan Global PMI (LHS) -1 200620072008 2009 2010
20112012 Source: Bloomberg Email [email protected] or call
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terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookFinancial Conditions
Overview Forceful action by ECB and Fed behind improved financial
global financial conditions Improved pace of credit creation Both
demand and supply of credit is improving This has not resulted in
an increase in monetary velocity Email [email protected] or
call 212-617-7664 21 22. Published by Bloombergs Economics
Newsletter - Take a free trial at Bloombergbriefs.com or enter
BRIEF on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and
OutlookBloomberg Financial Conditions IndicesFinancial Conditions
Turn Easing2 10-1 Index(Z-Score)-2-3-4-5US Financial Conditions
Index EU Financial Conditions Index-6 2010 20112012 Source:
Bloomberg BFCIUS, BFCIEU INDEX Email [email protected] or
call 212-617-766422 23. Published by Bloombergs Economics
Newsletter - Take a free trial at Bloombergbriefs.com or enter
BRIEF on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and
OutlookCredit Markets HealingPrivate Credit Creation & Nominal
Growth20% Nominal GDPTotal Credit Creation Private Financial
Instiutions15% Year Over Year Percentage Change10%5%0% Adjusted
R2=.64-5%19621967 1972 19771982198719921997 2002 2007 2012Source:
Federal Reserve, BloombergEmail [email protected] or call
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Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookCredit
Markets Healing, Not Translating to Rising VelocityVelocity of
Money 2.2 M2 2.12 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1960 19641968 1972 1976 1980
19841988 1992 1996 2000 20042008 2012 Source: BloombergVELOM2
INDEXEmail [email protected] or call 212-617-766424 25.
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Bloombergbriefs.comor enter BRIEF on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412
Economic Overview and OutlookHousing Outlook and Overview Modest
cyclical recovery Recovery in starts driven by demand for
multifamily dwellings Prices have stabilized Some metro-areas
experiencing price appreciation Overall housing recovery still
years away Inventory Pricing Tight credit Attractive rates support
sales albeit at historically low levels Email
[email protected] or call 212-617-7664 25 26. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookHousing Outlook Shadow inventory
rising. Pace of foreclosures key to recovery Housing drag on
economy persists 23.7 percent of homeowners have negative equity
4.9 percent near-negative equity Shadow inventory a drag on
recovery Negative equity and overhang of supply is blocking
themonetary transmission mechanism Likely to need a policy response
to target underwaterhomeowners and the shadow inventory to move
back towardgrowth path Email [email protected] or call
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terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookHousing Starts
Stabilize 2.5 Multi-Family StartsSingle Family Starts2Millions
(Annualized Pace) 1.5 1 0.50 2000 200120022003 2004 2005 20062007
2008 2009 20102011 2012Source: Bloomberg NHSPS1, NHSPS5 INDEX Email
[email protected] or call 212-617-766427 28. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookTraditional Buyers Re-entering Market
Percentage of Existing Home Sales 35Aug-11Aug-12 30 25 20 15 105
Distressed Sales Foreclosures Short SalesFirst Time Buyers All Cash
InvestorsSource: Bloomberg Email [email protected] or call
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terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookCentral Bank Policy
Outlook and Overview Five Cs of U.S. Monetary Policy Communications
Commitment Conditionality Composition Credibility Email
[email protected] or call 212-617-7664 29 30. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookCentral Bank Policy Outlook and
Overview Forward guidance to remain unchanged Maturity extension
program continued through 2014 Possible unsterilized treasury
purchases due to fiscal cliff Email [email protected] or
call 212-617-7664 30 31. Published by Bloombergs Economics
Newsletter - Take a free trial at Bloombergbriefs.com or enter
BRIEF on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and
OutlookMonetary Policy at the Zero Bound FOMC Projections of
Year-End Levels of the Fed Funds Rate (Median Projections as of
January, June and September 2012)4.5% January Median FOMC
Projection 4.00%4.0% June Median FOMC Projection Sept. Median FOMC
Projection3.5%3.0%2.5%Percent2.0%1.5%1.00%1.0%0.5% 0.25%0.25%
0.25%0.0%2012 201320142015 Longer RunSource: BloombergEmail
[email protected] or call 212-617-766431 32. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookMonetary Policy at the Zero Bound
Federal Reserve SOMA Maturity Distribution 300,000 9/22/2011 (Wt
Avg Years to Maturity 6.09) 10/3/2012 (Wt Avg to Maturity 9.48)
250,000 200,000Millions 150,000 100,00050,0000 2011202420422012
2013 202120222014 2017 2023 2027 20312032 20332034 2037 2041 2015
2025 2035 2019 2029 2039201620202026203020362018202820402038
Source: BloombergDEBT FEDEmail [email protected] or call
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terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookMonetary Policy at
the Zero Bound Diminishing Wealth Effects from Fed Purchases 1500
End of QE1End of QE2 1400 Standard and Poors 500 1300 12001100
1000900800 S&P Gains 80% S&P Gains 30%S&P 500 Gains 22%
During700 Operation Twist I & II600 2009 2010 20112012 Source:
Bloomberg Email [email protected] or call 212-617-7664 33
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trial at Bloombergbriefs.com or enter BRIEF on Bloomberg
terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookMonetary Policy at
the Zero BoundTaylor Rule Model Estimates of the Fed Funds Rate8
Fed Funds RateHawks Baseline Taylor Rule Estimate Doves Sept.
Median FOMC ProjectionBaseline Rudebusch Model642Percent0-2-4-6
2006 20082010 2012 2014 2016 2018202020222024Source: Bloomberg
Email [email protected] or call 212-617-7664 34 35.
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Economic Overview and OutlookFiscal Drag Medium-term policy shift
Discretionary spending declining Potential fiscal shock in first
quarter of 2013 Q113 GDP -2.2 percent Q213 GDP -1.3 percent Email
[email protected] or call 212-617-7664 35 36. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookFiscal Cliff Impact Estimated
ImpactTax ChangesSpending ChangesBush Tax Cuts-221Automatic
Sequestration-652% Cut in Payroll Tax -95Expiration of Emergency
Unemployment -26 BenefitsPartial Expensing of Investment
-65Scheduled Reduction in Medicare Payment-11 RatesTax Provisions:
Affordable Health Care Act-18Other Revenue Increases/Spending-105
ReductionsImpact of Tax Changes-400Impact of Spending
Changes-207Gross Impact on Spending Changes -607Less Secondary
Effects on Economy47Net Impact on Fiscal Deficit -560Potential Hit
on GDP4%Source: CBO, Bloomberg Email [email protected] or
call 212-617-766436 37. Published by Bloombergs Economics
Newsletter - Take a free trial at Bloombergbriefs.com or enter
BRIEF on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and
OutlookGrowth Cliff 3.02.7Bloomberg Consensus Forecast Bloomberg
Brief GDP Estimate With Fiscal Cliff2.5 2.32.02.0 2.0 1.9 1.91.51.5
1.31.0Percentage 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0-1.3 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2
-2.5Q312Q412Q113 Q213Q313Source: BloombergEmail
[email protected] or call 212-617-7664 37 38. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookEmployment and the Fiscal
CliffUnemployment Rate Likely to Rise 10.0 Bloomberg Consensus
Forecast 9.8 Bloomberg Brief Forecast With Fiscal Cliff 9.6 9.4 9.2
9.0 8.8Percentage 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.47.2 7.02010 2011
2012Q312 Q412Q113Q213 Q313Source: BloombergEmail
[email protected] or call 212-617-766438 39. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookCompeting Fiscal VisionsCompeting
Fiscal Visions26 Obama Plan ActualForecast CBO Baseline25 CBO
AlternativeFederal Spending as Percentage of GDP Ryan
Plan2423222120191817 1990 1994 1998 200220062010 20142018 2022
Source: CBO, OMB, House Budget CommitteeEmail
[email protected] or call 212-617-7664 39 40. Published by
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Economic Overview and OutlookCompeting Fiscal VisionsEntitlement
Spending vs. Net Fixed Business Investment16 Net Business Fixed
Investment Actual Forecast Mandatory Entitlement Spending14Spending
as a Percentage of GDP121086420 1962 196719721977 1982
1987199219972002 20072012 2017 2022Source: Bloomberg, CBOEmail
[email protected] or call 212-617-766440 41. Published by
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Bloombergbriefs.comor enter BRIEF on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412
Economic Overview and OutlookFiscal Drag Federal Government
Spending12.0Actual Projected11.010.09.0Percentage of
GDP8.07.06.05.04.03.0DefenseNondefenseTotal2.0 1972
1977198219871992 1997200220072012 2017 2022 Source: Congressional
Budget OfficeEmail [email protected] or call 212-617-766441
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trial at Bloombergbriefs.comor enter BRIEF on Bloomberg
terminalU.S. Q412 Economic Overview and OutlookDeficit
DynamicsFederal Deficit: Baseline vs. Alternative -11.0Deficit or
Surplus ActualForecast -10.0Alternative Fiscal Scenario -9.0 -8.0
-7.0 Percentage of GDP -6.0 -5.0 -4.0-3.0 -2.0-1.00.0 1.02.03.0
1972 197819841990 19962002 2008 20142020 Source: CBOEmail
[email protected] or call 212-617-766442 43. Published by
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Bloombergbriefs.com or enter BRIEF on Bloomberg terminalU.S. Q412
Economic Overview and OutlookDebt DynamicsFederal Debt: Baseline
vs. Alternative120 Debt Alternative Fiscal ScenarioActual
Forecast11010090Percentage of GDP80706050403020194019501960
19701980 1990 2000 20102020Source: CBOEmail
[email protected] or call 212-617-7664 43 44. Free Trial
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