U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Effects Status and Trends: Linking Science to Resource Management Decision Making and Policy.

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Climate Effects Status and Trends: Linking Science to Resource Management Decision Making and Policy

Data Management Workshop Briefing September 16, 2009

Issues in Understanding and Responding to Climate Effects

To effectively respond to climate change, we must understand whole-systems and feedback responses

We must understand more than the islands we study or manage: context will matter

To anticipate change, we must focus on system resilience and thresholds: Initial climate effects will be episodic, and by the time a problem is noticed in a specific location it will likely be chronic

We therefore need long-term records and data at the full range of spatial and temporal scales

We need the answers yesterday

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Funding to start from scratch prohibitive. Funding to start from scratch prohibitive. What structure would allow us to organize What structure would allow us to organize existing and new capabilities?existing and new capabilities?

We need long-term records and We need long-term records and experiments at fixed sites and short-term experiments at fixed sites and short-term site-specific answers.site-specific answers.

Current funding is highly distributed. Current funding is highly distributed. Mechanisms for developing integrated Mechanisms for developing integrated approaches and data are mixed.approaches and data are mixed.

We need to meet both national and regional We need to meet both national and regional needs for scienceneeds for science

How do we deal with this?How do we deal with this?

Data Integration – A Critical NeedData Integration: A Critical Need

Current monitoring and data collections systems are not well-integrated across DOI Bureaus . . . let alone across other local, state and federal agencies.

We will need data sharing, management, assessment, and

access at an unprecedented scale.

Chemical, energy, and water budgets to track changes in ecological function

The Watershed Approach

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National Climate Effects Network

A vision for a National climate effects early-warning system composed of :

A collaborative multi-scale “network of networks” sharing data to answer more questions than we can answer separately.

Partnerships among operational and research institutions: NSF (NEON, LTER, AON, etc), USFS, DOI, NOAA Climate Services, NGOs

Science support for cost-effective resource management and policy decision-making

Efficient multi-scale performance monitoring and ground-truthing for adaptation and mitigation (e.g. Carbon sequestration)

Support services (data management, communication, etc.)

“To develop a national framework for integration and coordination of environmental monitoring and related research through collaboration and building upon existing networks and programs.”

Charge Given to CENR by Clinton Administration,July 1996:

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PROBLEM:PROBLEM:It is not possible to assess the complex It is not possible to assess the complex

changes, interactions, and feedbacks changes, interactions, and feedbacks caused by climate change at every caused by climate change at every specific location where resource specific location where resource managers need us to -be, managers need us to -be, or by separate or by separate discipline-specific initiativesdiscipline-specific initiatives. .

THE NECESSARY ASSUMPTIONS:THE NECESSARY ASSUMPTIONS:The dominant processes controlling The dominant processes controlling

ecosystem function are similar; ecosystem function are similar; however, ecosystem condition is highly however, ecosystem condition is highly variable.variable.

The logistical issueThe logistical issueThe logistical issueThe logistical issue

The CENR Framework For Environmental Monitoring and Research

(Source of the Heinz “Roadmap to the Future”)

The Watershed as a Landscape Frame of Reference

FIA Plot (hypothetical)USGS Gage

Riparian StudyResearch Area

Intensive areas (hypothetical)

Survey points (hypothetical)

Climate Gradients in the Lower 48

Change will happen first at ecosystem boundaries

(ecotones)

National Climate Effects Network Surveys

CORE study areas (proposed)

Survey points (hypothetical)

•Vegetation Type (FIA)

•Vegetation Health (FHM)

•Soil chemistry

•Wildlife census

•Surficial Geology

•Water quality

•Forest Fragmentation

•Precipitation and air temperature networks

•Active layer thickness (north)

Proposed Regional Survey Datasets

The resulting 224 band layer image is known as an “image cube”. When the data from each band is plotted on a graph, it yields a spectrum.

Hallet, USFS

AVIRISAirborne Visible/InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer

Remote Sensing: Building new tools through an integrated ground-truthing network

Localized Detailed Measurements

Spatial Variables Through Time

If NDVI < 0.40 C fluxes = f(X1, X2, X4)If NDVI >= 0.40 C fluxes = f(X1, X4, X6)

C Flux Mapping Model Tree

C Flux Maps

METHODS: Develop Empirical Models to Predict Carbon Fluxes Spatially and Temporally

Northern Great Plains

Sagebrush Steppe

Kazakh Steppe

Boreal?

The predictive potential of phenology requires a new data resource—a national network of integrated

phenological observations and the tools to access and analyze them at multiple scales.

• A continental science and monitoring initiative• Includes agencies, NGOs, academia, public• Target is 30,000K+ observation locations• Includes plants + animals, using contemporary

+ legacy data• Includes on-line data entry, maps, downloads• Integrates with other science networks• Incorporates education: “more kids in the

woods”• Remote sensing facilitates scaling from ground

to atmospherewww.usanpn.org

Where we are now:

A National Climate Effects Network (CEN) and National Climate Services are DOI and Congressional expectations.

Pilots of various concepts have sprung up across the US

A coherent strategy that makes efficient use of our national capabilities has not developed at this point.

The time is right for recommendations.

Carbon Sequestration Water Availability Water Quality Increased Flood and Drought Risk Coastal Impacts Associated with Sea-

level Rise Melting Permafrost and Sea Ice Impacts on Native Peoples Outbreaks of Pests, Invasive Species,

and Diseases Species Migration and Habitat Change Threatened and Endangered Species Wildland Fires

Work has already been done on defining key management and policy issues

Many issues, but also common data needs

Ecosystem Forecasting

Streamgages

USGS Geospatial Datasets

Carbon Sequestration Assessment

USGS D

NAWQA

NOAA

Climate Services

Forest Inventory and

Analysis (USDA-FS)

Decision-Support Center

National Climate

Change and Wildlife Center

NPS Monitoring Programs

DATA INTEGRATION FOR CLIMATE EFFECTS

CLIMATE EFFECTS NETWORK ENHANCEMENTS

Can we integrate services and enhance existing programs to address climate effects?

Data Management Vision and Goals(updated from 2008 DOI Framework document)

Vision Statement: “To create a data management system through which DOI and its partners can access, assemble, and synthesize ecological data for natural resource management, delivering the right information to the right person at the right time using a standard means of access to authoritative Ecological Resources Data.”

Principles:

Cost-effective data management and access to Ecological Resource Data and information.

Optimized Ecological Resources Data management processes and services that are responsive to customer needs.

Productive collaboration in ecological data-related activities and investments across DOI.

Manage the entire ecological data life cycle.

Data synthesis to facilitate usability by all customers.

Recommendations

1. Emphasis should be on the modernization of data systems by each bureau using DOI and industry standards that allow efficient searching, discovery, and data sharing.

2. Implement short-term (1 to 3 years) solution to address the immediate need for more efficient data and information management and dissemination across multiple data systems.

3. Build on existing capacity to develop a DOI-wide data and information management and dissemination system (e.g. Modify the Biological Resources Data Management Framework developed in 2008 by a 17-person interagency DOI team)

DOI Executive Order• DOI Climate Council Formed

– Sec, Dep Sec, Bureau Chiefs

• DOI Climate Impacts Response Centers– Incorporate LCCs, Wildlife Centers,

GCPO Apps/Decision Support, etc.– Looking for input on where to locate– Unified set of boundaries (a challenge)– Funding still to the Bureaus directly

DOI Executive Order• CEN as a science foundation for these

centers • Coordinated through National Climate

Change Program Office at DOI• 1st Council meeting next week• Working groups may be re-constituted

based on that meeting.• MY Conclusion: None of this affects the

objectives of this workshop.

DOI Executive Order

Recommendations:

• Prepare a white paper on data management and dissemination

• Goal, strategy, timeline, funding and FTE needs

• Have ready by mid-October (LCCs and USGS/FWS partnership on that schedule.

Discussion

DATA MANAGEMENT TEAMSteve Fancy (Chair), David Wilson, Cheryl Morris,

Craig MacKinnon, Tim Moriarty

Key Challenges:

Data and information sharing and integration are the key to collaboration among DOI bureaus and their many partners in addressing the significant climate change challenges.

Developing an effective and efficient means of finding, retrieving, using, and sharing the best available data and information. This will require both a top-down and bottom-up approach to addressing Department-wide data management issues.

The key to data sharing and integration is modernization of data systems using reusable and sharable building blocks (“web services”) based on DOI and industry standards to allow data exchange across multiple data systems.

Vision Statement: “To provide earth system information for understanding, tracking, and forecasting the effects of climate change on ecosystems, natural resources, and society; and to develop and assess adaptation or mitigation responses to those changes in the most cost effective, timely, and scientifically-rigorous manner possible.”

Principles: Begin with users’ needs Sound decisions are based on sound science Information producers and users will collaborate across the entire

process Integration of science and management requires an adaptive approach

and processes that encourage and apply learning We will build connections across disciplines and organizations We will ensure institutional stability

Guiding Principals for Collaborative Observation, Research, and Decision Support

Climate Effects Support Services

Data management and dissemination systems

Common protocol development and data comparability screening

Adaptation and mitigation strategy development

Communication and outreach

The Climate Effects Dilemma

Valuable historical records are available but scattered, so system-level observation is poor.

Most science funding is short-term.

How climate change will disrupt ecosystem function and human activity is uncertain.

Answers to relevant management issues are needed now in many areas, and very soon in many others, but we don’t know what adaptation or mitigation strategies will work.

Map of real-time streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of the year (United States)

An Earth Systems Science Agency

(Addressing serious environmental and economicchallenges in the United States will requireorganizational changes at the federal level)

Mark Schaefer (DOI), D. James Baker (NOAA), John H. Gibbons (OSTP), Charles G. Groat

(USGS), Donald Kennedy (FDA),Charles F. Kennel (NASA), David Rejeski

(OSTP-CEQ)

POLICYFORUM- Science July 2008