US CRE Regional Deep Dive - ACC and Big East Conference Regions

NCAA Football Conference Webinar

October 2014

Auction.com Research

Atlantic Coast Conference

ACC Region Economy and Demographics*

3

ACC Region Recovery Chugging Along ACC Region Employment Approaching Pre-

Recession Level ACC Region Job Count Growing on Par with

US

Regional Population Growth Outpacing Nation

Sources: Census Bureau, BLS, Maximus Advisors *ACC region defined as: DC,FL,GA,MD,NC,PA,SC,VA

ACC: Underrated

4

Raleigh-Durham Warehouse   Job Count Reaching Devilishly High Levels

Valuations Will Remain High, Driven by Booming Biotech in Research Triangle

Sources: BLS, Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Raleigh Warehouse Vacancies Will Reach New Lows

ACC: Overrated

5

Washington, DC Metro Area  

DC Region Employment Growth Leveling Off Recently

Regional Population Growth Has Slowed

Sources: Census Bureau, BLS, Maximus Advisors

ACC: Overrated

6

Washington, DC Metro Area   DC Office and Multifamily Valuations Will

Remain Range-Bound Through 2018

Suburban Maryland Valuations Moving Slower Than a Terrapin; Multifamily to

Decrease

Sources: Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Northern Virginia CRE Valuations Leveling Off

ACC: Bold Prediction

7

Miami Hospitality  

Hotel Occupancies To Decline Amid Supply Additions Sweeping In Like a Hurricane

RevPAR Growth Will Slow Due to Increased Supply

Sources: STR, Maximus Advisors forecasts

ACC: Cellar Dweller

8

Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Employment Has Been Range-

Bound for Years… …While Population Growth is Non-Existent

Sources: BLS, Census Bureau, Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Valuations Look to Remain Flat Through 2018

Big East Conference

Big East Region Economy and Demographics*

10

Big East Region Underperforming US

Big East Job Count Has Surpassed Prior Peak…

…But Job Growth Lagging US Pace

Regional Population Growing Only Half US Pace

Sources: Census Bureau, BLS, Maximus Advisors *Big East region defined as: CT,MA,NY,NJ,RI

Big East: Underrated

11

New York City Office New York City Office Employment Storming

Ahead

Sources: BLS, Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Vacancies Will Approach 8% by 2018

Vacancies Have Descended Despite Massive New Supply

Big East: Overrated

12

Boston Apartment Boston May Be Overbuilding… Boston Apartment Vacancies Flying Like an

Eagle Due to Massive New Supply Additions

Sources: BLS, Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Apartment Vacancies Already on the Rise, Will Plateau Near 6% as Supply Overtakes Demand

Big East: Bold Prediction

13

New York City Hospitality RevPAR Growth Stunted by Massive Supply

Pipeline NYC Hotel Occupancies to Fall Off in

Coming Years

Sources: STR, Maximus Advisors

NYC Hotel Valuations Will Remain Quiet Through 2017

Big East: Cellar Dweller

14

New Jersey

Argh Matey! New Jersey Population Growth Slowing

New Jersey Payrolls Still Well Below Pre-Recession Peak

Sources: BLS, Census Bureau, Maximus Advisors

Big East: Cellar Dweller

15

New Jersey

Central NJ Valuations Losing the Hunt for Buried Treasure

Northern NJ Valuations Heading Nowhere; Multifamily Walking the Plank

Sources: Reis, Maximus Advisors forecasts

Thank you for joining us for our NCAA Webinar series!

Peter  Muoio,  Ph.D.  646-­‐352-­‐9510  pmuoio@auc<on.com    

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