Urbanization, Population, and the Opportunity for Ibadan to Develop

1

Urbanization, Population, and the Opportunity for Ibadan to Develop

Building a strong city with a high quality of life

2

Urbanization in Nigeria

Ibadan’s Population Dynamics

Population & Development: the crucial links

What can we do?

3Photo by meaduva

Urbanization in Nigeria

4

Nigeria experienced and is still experiencing one of the fastest rates of urbanization in the world

With growth rates in urban areas almost double those in rural areas

Photo by Shiraz Chakera

5

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

80,779

162,394

Popu

latio

n (in

mill

ions

)

World Population Prospects 2009

Nigeria Urban/Rural Population

Urban Population

Rural Population

After 2010, Nigeria became more urban than rural

Focusing on the urban population is key to Nigeria meeting its overall economic and development goals.

Nigeria will not be able to meet its MDGs or Vision 2020 without addressing the growing urban population.

6

Photo by Bonnie NU

RHI

7

The National Urban Development Policy calls for: Providing adequate shelter for all Poverty reduction and economic empowerment Ensuring environmental sustainability Good governance and development

“The urbanization process is irreversible in Nigeria and must therefore be turned into opportunities for growth”

Presentation by Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, Nigeria 2005

Nigeria has a Vision for Urban Development

8

Photo by Bonnie NU

RHI

However, there are challenges with policy implementation which is resulting in poor quality of life for city residents, especially among the urban poor.

One of the key challenges in policy implementation of the urbanization plan is the rapid growth in the population of cities.

This creates a situation where the government is unable to:• Maintain and expand infrastructure• Provide adequate, high quality social

services• Create an environment that is conducive to economic development

9

Ibadan’s Urban Population

Photo by Bonnie NURHI

10

•Ibadan South East

•Ibadan South West

•Ibadan North East

•Ibadan North

•Ibadan North West

Let’s focus on these urban areas:

11

1.5 million population in the 5 LGAs

33% of married women use a modern method of family planning

On average, each women has just under 4 children

More than 130 maternal deaths per year

Current Situation of Ibadan

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79

80+

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Population (thousands)

Age

in Y

ears

36% of the population are less than 15 years old

Source:

Age Structure2011 Population of Ibadan, projected using the 2006 census

12

FemaleMale

13

Population and Development


14

Photo by Bonnie NU

RHI

A much larger working age population comparedto the population in young dependent ages was akey factor in the Asian development miracle.

As families became smaller, dependency significantly declined.

Greater emphasis on population quality than quantity meant increased investments by the state

More and better educational opportunities emerged Greater productivity Investment in modern agriculture

Population and Economic Development are Linked

15

Vicious Circle

High Rates of Fertility

Very Young Population with Many Dependent

Children

Large Groups of Women Entering Reproductive Age

More Women Having Children

Larger Populations to be Supported

Need for More Infrastructure and Services to Meet Needs

of the Population

More and More Resources Needed

Struggle to Keep up with Current Services,

Inability to Expand

Lack of Opportunity

Poverty

Gender Inequality

Poor Health

IlliteracyFamily Planning

16Photo by Bonnie from NURHI

A key component to the success of the Asian tigers was investment in family planning

This led to improved quality of life and escalated economic development

17

Ibadan Urban Nigeria

Jordan Morocco Indonesia Thailand0

20

40

60

80

100

3326

42

55 57

80

Birt

hs p

er W

oman

(ave

rage

)

Modern Contraceptive UsePercentage of Married Women using a Modern Contraceptive Method

Source: NURHI/MLE Household Survey, 2011 and DHS and RHS Surveys

18

Less than 20% of women and less than 15% of men want a child in the next 2 years

1 in 4 women and 1 in 5 men do not want any more children

1 in 5 women have an unmet need for family planning

Less than 1 in 4 of the poorest women are using a modern method

Almost half of women say it would be a “big problem” if they were to become pregnant in the next few weeks

2011 NURHI/MLE Baseline Survey

Couples in Ibadan Want to Plan their Families

Ibadan has an opportunity to improve the quality of life of its population

Scenario 1: Maintain Current Trends What if things continued as they are now?

Scenario 2: Investment in Family Planning What will happen if there is an investment in family planning and unmet need is met?

2 Potential Futures:

20

Abuja FCT Kaduna Ilorin Ibadan Benin Zaria

NURHI aims to increase family planning by 20 percentage points in each city by providing quality services that couples can access

Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (NURHI) is a Project that is Supporting Quality Family Planning in 6 Nigerian Cities:

.

21

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

1,458,928

1,874,613

2,123,444

Num

ber o

f Peo

ple

(mill

ions

)

Total PopulationsActual and projected total populations of the Ibadan urban areas

Ibadan NURHI Projection

Ibadan Base Projection

Difference of more than 200,000 people

22

Impacts on Diff erent SectorsHealth Education

Infrastructure Economy

23Nigeria National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development : January 2004

“All stakeholders need to appreciate the linkages of population factors with broader development issues like housing, education, health, agriculture, energy, environment, gender concerns, food security and the security of life and property.”

24

Health

25

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1459

2123

1,875

Num

ber o

f Nur

ses

WHO 1:1,000 recommendation

Number of Nurses RequiredAssuming WHO standard of 1 nurse per 1,000 population



26

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

Hea

lth R

esou

rces

Req

uire

d(m

illio

ns) 60

mill

ion

Nai

ra s

aved

20

11–2

015 2,548

2,250

3.4 billion Naira saved 2011–2035

Human Resources for Health by African Health Workforce Observatory 2002

Health Resources RequiredBased on Per Capita Health Spending



27

Cumulative savings generated by achieving the NURHI Scenario

instead of the Base Scenario

Per Capita Spending in Health

2011–2015 Savings

2011–2035 Savings

Actual:1,200 Naira 60 million 3.4 billion

Recommended:5,100 Naira 254 million 14 billion

Human Resources for Health by African Health Workforce Observatory 2002

NURHI Health Savings 2015 & 2035Comparison between actual and recommended per capita spending

28Nigeria Millennium Development Goals: Report 2010

“The key challenges to reducing infant mortality include population, declining resources and wide geographic variations.”

Major challenges to reducing maternal mortality include “a dearth of skilled personnel and a shortage of family planning facilities”.

29

Family Planning Acts by Reducing Births in the Following Categories, Called the 4 Too’s:

Too young: women who give birth before age 18

Too old: women who give birth after age 35

Too many: more than 5 births

Too close: births spaced less than 24 months

Family Planning Eliminates Risky Births

30

Year Ibadan Base Projection


2011 63 63

2015 62 52

2035 55 48

Nigeria DHS

Risky BirthsPercentage of births with any risk factor

High risk births can result in maternal and infant deaths and are very expensive to attend to at health facilities.

31

20112013

20152017

20192021

20232025

20272029

20312033

20350

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Num

ber o

f Mat

erna

l Dea

ths 766 Maternal Deaths Averted

2011–35

126

88

Number of Maternal Deaths



75 Maternal Deaths Averted 2011–15

32

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

4382

6,287

Num

ber o

f Und

er 5

Dea

ths

Number of Under 5 Deaths Deaths to Children 0-4 years

3,654 U5 Deaths Averted 2011–15

45, 065 U5 Deaths Averted

2011–15Ibadan NURHI Projection


33

Year Ibadan Base Projection


2011 74 74

2015 71 49

2035 55 38

Infant Mortality RateNumber of deaths to babies less than 1 year old for every 1,000 births

Infant Deaths Averted:1,867 between 2011-201518,133 between 2011-2035

34

Reduction in the number of maternal, infant, and child deaths

Freed up resources that can be invested in strategies to improve quality and access to essential health services

Increase in life expectancy

Reduction in the strain on health staff and infrastructure

Health Benefits of Investing in Family Planning

35

Education

36

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

100,000

200,000

300,000

197,910

246,985

179,168

Num

ber o

f Sch

ool A

ged

Child

ren

(tho

usan

ds)

Primary School Aged ChildrenNumber of Children Aged 6-11



37

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

6,597

8,233

5,972

Num

ber o

f Prim

ary

Teac

hers

Based on Ministry of Education Standards

Number of Primary Teachers RequiredBased on 1 teacher per 30 students



38

Graduate+NCE; 86.5%

Unspecified; 1.5%

Below NCE; 12.0%

Ibadan has a high percentage of qualified teachers.

National Bureau of Statistics: Social Statistics in Nigeria 2009

Quality of Primary Teachers

39

Current policy goes beyond universal primary education and has set a target of universal basic education.

40

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

332,819

406,769

296,228

Num

ber o

f Bas

ic E

duca

tion

Aged

Ch

ildre

n (t

hous

ands

)

Basic Education Aged ChildrenPrimary and Junior Secondary (Ages 6-15)



41

Reduction in the strain on teachers and infrastructure

Assist Ibadan in meeting the Education Sector goal of universal basic education

Freed resources that can be invested in strategies to improve the quality of education and prepare the next generation to participate in the global economy

Education Benefits of Investing in Family Planning

42

Infrastructure


43

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

416836

606698

535,604

Num

ber o

f Hou

ses R

equi

red

Housing Requirements for a Growing PopulationAverage household size of 3.5 people



Difference of 71,094

Spectrum Projections using data from NURHI/MLE Baseline Data, 2011

44

Annual Production of Waste (in kilograms)

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

244953843.3

356526247.6

314,747,523

Annu

al K

ilogr

ams o

f Was

te P

rodu

ced

(mill

ions

)

Babayemi et al. 2009

Solid Waste Generation



Photos by Bonnie NURHI

45

Reduction in the strain on housing requirements

Reduction in the amount of trash that is generated and improvement in the sanitation condition of the city

Likely lower the percentage of people living in slums or other forms of temporary housing

Infrastructure Benefits of Investing in Family Planning

46

Economy


47

20252026

20272028

20292030

20312032

20332034

20350

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Num

ber o

f New

Jobs

Req

uire

d

Spectrum Projection

New Jobs Required

Ibadan Base ScenarioIbadan NURHI Scenario

More than 70,000 fewer new jobs required 2025–2035

48

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

520,891

624,259

448,527

Num

ber o

f Chi

ldre

n D

epen

dent

s

MLE Survey 2011

Number of Child Dependents



49

“With a high population growth rate of 3.2%, the teeming population tends to exert a massive demand-pull on existing resources, thereby constraining the growth of the nation’s GDP per capita.”

Nigeria Vision 20:2020 Economic Transformation Blueprint

50

Reduction in the strain on employment requirements

Reduction in the number of dependents which will assist families to move out of poverty

Likely reduction in the percentage of people in the working ages that are unemployed

Economic Benefits of Investing in Family Planning

51

What Can We Do?


52

Couples in Ibadan want to plan their families, they want family planning

Photos by Bonnie NURHI

Improving access and utilization of high quality family planning services will:

Thereby support Ibadan in becoming the prosperous, developed, and thriving city it is intended to be.

Enable couples to achieve their own reproductive intentions (having the number of children they want, when they want them)…

Result in happy, healthier families, that are more economically secure…


Policy Response

54

Oyo state has an approved family planning policy

Pilot NHIS state offering free maternal and child health care

Adequate health infrastructure to provide family planning services

Presence of qualified health personnel

Wide acceptance of family planning

Started integration of family planning services into existing MCH U5/MDG Fund

Ibadan is Already Moving…

55

Implement the family planning component of the existing reproductive health policyShow commitment to preventing maternal and child deaths

The State Assembly should pass a bill that guarantees access to high quality family planning services for all people living in Ibadan/Oyo State

Increase budgetary allocation for family planning from 1M Naira to 10M NairaStock outs of family planning commodities continues to be a major barrier to access

Ensure the timely release of funds budgeted for family planning and guarantee their use for family planning servicesLack of funds is limiting access and uptake of family planning services

Speak out, and encourage others to speak out, supporting family planningFamily planning discussions should happen with multiple audiences, in many forums, with all decision-makers.

The more we talk about family planning, the more we all contribute to an environment where couples are able to meet their own reproductive intentions.

… but there is more to be doneImportant Next Steps

56

“Family Planning is something I support because we need to space our children, support safe motherhood and we need to take care of our children.”

Nigeria’s Minister of HealthNovember 2011

Urbanization, Population, and the Opportunity for Ibadan to Develop

Documents