URBAN SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT WITH A HOLISTIC APPROACH FOR THE NATIONAL DISTRICT IN SANTO DOMINGO, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Martha Liliana CARREÑO 1 , Omar D. CARDONA 2 , Mario A. SALGADO‐GÁLVEZ 1 , Cesar A. VELÁSQUEZ 1 , Alex H. BARBAT 1 1 Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña, Barcelona, Spain 2 Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales, Ingeniar Ltda., Colombia contact: [email protected] F PhR1 Expected Annual Economic Loss w PhR 1 F PhR2 Expected Annual Deaths w PhR 2 F PhR3 Expected Annual Injuries w PhR 3 F PhR4 Expected Unemployed w PhR 4 F PhR5 Expected Homeless w PhR 5 SANTO DOMINGO, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Moncho’s equation F R USRi R Ph T 1 PHYSICAL RISK SOCIAL FRAGILITY LACK OF RESILIENCE F SF1 Mortality rate w SF1 F SF2 Population density w SF2 F SF3 Population with fair or poor health w SF3 F SF4 Slums‐squatter neighbourhoods w SF4 F SF5 Social disparity w SF5 F LR1 Hospital beds w LR1 F LR2 Health human resource w LR2 F LR3 Available public space w LR3 F LR4 Development level w LR4 F LR5 Operating capacity in case of emergency w LR5 PHYSICAL RISK INDEX, R Ph AGGRAVATING COEFFICIENT, F TOTAL RISK INDEX, R T INVOLVED VARIABLES AND EVALUATION PROCESS 5 1 w i i i RPh RPh Ph F R 5 1 5 1 w w j j j i i i LR LR SF SF F F F F R T UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015‐2030 Geneva, Switzerland, 27 ‐ 29 January 2016 A fully probabilistic risk assessment was conducted using a building by building resolution level for the National District, Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. A national probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was developed to generate a set of stochastic events. Different building classes were identified and vulnerability functions assigned to them for the damage and loss quantification. Direct physical losses were quantified and grouped by neighborhoods based on official cadastral data. From those results, physical damages and casualties were obtained to calculate the physical risk. Risk was also evaluated from a holistic perspective taking into account the expected physical damage but also social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which can increase the second order effects. Together with the physical damage, this evaluation considers social and organizational issues as well as institutional aspects related to the community development. Descriptors are used in order to capture aggravating conditions of the direct physical impact, as well as second order and, sometimes, intangible impacts of earthquakes that combined with the physical impact, allows estimating the urban seismic risk index. These results are useful in the socialization of risk levels in order to communicate it to the stakeholders besides identifying its causes. The obtained results can be used for decision‐making processes through the identification of zones that may be potentially problematic after the occurrence of an earthquake. Besides helping to understand disaster risk, this study also strengthens the disaster risk governance and management, two of the priorities of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. ABSTRACT From a holistic perspective, risk is a function of the potential physical damage and a set of vulnerability factors i that correspond to the vulnerability conditions of the context under analysis. The physical vulnerability is obtained from the susceptibility of the exposed elements to hazards. The vulnerability of the context depends on the social fragilities and issues related to lack of resilience of the disaster prone socio‐technical system. To reduce risk, it is necessary to intervene through corrective and prospective actions the vulnerability factors. Disaster risk management requires an institutional structure and public policies and actions to implement the changes needed on the exposed elements to reduce risk. Three indexes are calculated: Physical risk index R Ph , is based on the convolution of hazards and the physical susceptibility of the exposed elements, and in this study has been assessed by using the CAPRA platform. Aggravating coefficient, F, is obtained from other fragility and resilience factors of vulnerability, based on indicators related to the social context and capacities. Urban Seismic Risk Index, USRi, is the total risk R T , obtained from the physical risk aggravated by an impact factor in each unit of analysis. Holistic evaluation post‐processing tool RESULTS CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT INGENIAR Replacement value (USD) Average annual loss (USD) (Earthquake)