Urban Land Institute May 1, 2013 Here We Grow Again! Demographic: Who will make up our growth.

Urban Land InstituteMay 1, 2013

Here We Grow Again!Demographic: Who will make up our

growth

Lessons From the Past Maricopa County Population

1955 AND 2010

1955 Population 470,000

2010 Population 3,800,000

29.6%

4.6%

1.6%

3.4%

0.2%1.9%

58.7%

Maricopa County Population by Race/Hispanic Ethnicity

White, Not Hispanic

Hispanic

Black or AfricanAmerican,Not Hispanic

Native American, Not Hispanic

Asian, Not Hispanic

Two or more Races, Not Hispanic

Census 2010

Other, Not Hispanic

< 2029.3%

20 to 2914.2%30 to 39

13.9%

40 to 4913.6%

50 to 5911.8%

60 to 698.8%

70+8.3%

2010 Census

< 2029.8%

20 to 2915.3%30 to 39

15.9%

40 to 4913.8%

50 to 5910.0%

60 to 696.7%

70+8.5%

2000 Census

Maricopa County Age Distribution

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.0

29.5 28.1 30.0 32.8 35.3 36.8

26.7 27.0 29.7 32.0 33.0 33.6

U.S. Maricopa County

Median Age

2010 Population 3.8 Million

2040? Population 6.2 Million

Maricopa County Population: 2010 and 2040? Projections

Employment Situation

Data Source: Office of Employment and Population Statistics, Arizona Department of Administration

Graph 4: Maricopa County - Employment gains/losses (annual change), 2002-2012

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

-1,400

22,80062,300

101,900 93,800

27,300

-50,100

-144,600

-33,200

23,90038,400

Employment gains/losses - year-over-year

Increased Mobility – Net Migration in Positive Territory

Net Migration is Rebounding

Source: Arizona Vital Statistics, Arizona Department of Administration

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale Metro Area Population, Natural Increase and Net Migration

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (40,000)

(20,000)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

- 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000

15,704

Net Migration Natural Increase Population

Maricopa County Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20503,000,000.00

3,500,000.00

4,000,000.00

4,500,000.00

5,000,000.00

5,500,000.00

6,000,000.00

6,500,000.00

7,000,000.00

7,500,000.00

8,000,000.00

3,824,058.004,063,700.00

4,506,900.00

4,935,400.00

5,359,500.00

5,776,300.00

6,174,900.00

6,554,400.00

6,925,300.00

4,217,427.00

4,762,473.00

5,276,074.00

5,756,690.00

6,207,980.00

6,626,269.00

7,009,664.007,355,582.00

7,661,423.00

3,786,659.004,101,784.00

4,516,090.00

4,948,423.00

5,390,785.00

5,839,201.00

6,296,219.00

6,768,117.00

7,264,731.00

2012 Projections 2007 Projections 2003 Projections

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

.50M .75M1.30M

1.77M

2.72M

3.67M

5.13M

6.40M

.19M .33M .66M .97M1.51M

2.12M

3.07M3.82M

6.40M

7.49M

8.85M

10.22M

3.82M4.51M

5.36M6.17M

Total PopulationState of Arizona - historical Maricopa County - historicalState of Arizona - 2012 Projections Maricopa County - 2012 Projections

1940 to 1950

1950 to 1960

1960 to 1970

1970 to 1980

1980 to 1990

1990 to 2000

2000 to 2010

2010 to 2020

2020 to 2030

2030 to 2040

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

250k

553k469k

947k947k

1465k

1271k

146k

332k 304k

542k613k

950k

752k

1084k

1367k 1366k

683k

853k 815k

Population Change

State of Arizona - historical Maricopa County - historicalState of Arizona - 2012 Projections Maricopa County - 2012 Projections

1940 to 1950

1950 to 1960

1960 to 1970

1970 to 1980

1980 to 1990

1990 to 2000

2000 to 2010

2010 to 2020

2020 to 2030

2030 to 2040

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

4.15%

5.68%

3.12%

4.38%

3.03%3.42%

5.95%

7.18%

3.84%

4.55%

3.47%3.77%

0.0223781435384673 0.015760877789834

60.016920910133011

4 0.0144508661163878

0.0221285842591570.016566554935606

0.0174759177018378 0.014263672935532

8

Population Growth Rate

State of Arizona - historical Maricopa County - historicalState of Arizona - 2012 Projections Maricopa County - 2012 Projections

Pinal County Population

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

376,369 415,000493,200

580,200681,600

800,700

934,900

1,081,000

1,240,200

364,587 486,363

609,720

732,282

852,463

968,928 1,081,737

1,192,103 1,302,950

199,715 216,215 231,229 244,422 255,695 264,982 276,057 280,632 288,529

2012 Projections 2007 Projections 2003 Projections

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

West Central East

Population Change

2030>2040

2020>2030

2010>2020

Draft 2 Review – Subject to Change

30%

34%

25%

12%

14%

14%

6%

14%

15%

Draft 2 Share of County Population- Subject to Change

24%

39%

37%

2010 Population

West

Central

East

32%

36%

32%

2040 Population

West

Central

East

28%

37%

35%

2030 Population

West

Central

East

25%

38%

37%

2020 Population

West

Central

East

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

West Central East

Employment Change

2030>2040

2020>2030

2010>2020

31%

31%

57%

11%

13%

28% 33%

17%

15%

Draft 2 Review – Subject to Change

Draft 2 Share of County Employment- Subject to Change

18%

41%

41%

Total Employment 2030

West

Central

East

16%

42%

42%

Total Employment 2020

West

Central

East

14%

44%

42%

Total Employment 2010

West

Central

East

21%

40%

39%

Total Employment 2040

West

Central

East

For More Information Contact:

Eric AndersonTransportation [email protected]