'Urban growth: Contemporary challenges' Centre for Science and Environment New Delhi, June 22, 2009.

'Urban growth: Contemporary challenges'

Centre for Science and Environment New Delhi, June 22, 2009

Urban roots

Patna: A thriving trading city during 17th and 18th century

Cities emerged along the riverine trade routes – linked to indigenous economy

Traditional cities decayed as colonial port cities grew in prominence

Kolkata

Chennai

Beginning of public transport and also motorisation

We built walkable cities

Kolkata

Unprecedented urban growth

1950-2006: The urban population of the world has increased from 739 million to 3.2 billion. By 2025 around 65 per cent of the world’s population is projected to live in cities. By 2010 more than 75 per cent of the world’s urban population will live in poorer countries (State of the World 2007).

More than 40 per cent of the world children are estimated to be living in polluted cities of developing world (WHO).

A billion more will be added over the next three decades in Asia – almost adding a whole new India. More than half of them will be living in cities

What about India?

Urban growth: A mixed trend

Exponential annual growth in urban population during 1940s, 50s and 70s … Agrarian crisis pushed people out of villages. They came to cities in search of livelihood …..

80s and 90s: Urban growth rate drops – from 3.8% in the 70s to 2.7% in 90s. Share of urban population increased slowly from 17.3%in 1951 to 27.78% in 2001. The share of migrants in the total incremental urban population dropped from 21.7% in 80s to 21.0% in the 90s. This co-relates well with drop in the rate of urbanisation during the nineties.

Urban population is projected to grow in the coming decade.

The total urban population is already as big as 287.56 million which is almost equal to the total population of the United States.

Problem of skewed growth

Top heavy growth: The million plus cities (Class I) are growing faster than the smaller cities – growth is not evenly distributed. Bulk of industrial and manufacturing concentrate around a few large cities…..

Asymmetrical growth: Total towns increased from 1827 in 1901 to 4368 in 2001. Million plus cities increased from 24 in 1901 to 393 in 2001. Share of urban population in these cities increased from 26% in 1901 to 69% in 2001. The remaining 30% distributed in the remaining 3979 towns and cities.

Stagnation at the bottom: The transformation of rural settlement as urban centres is not so pronounced. Lower rung towns largely stagnating. Some have grown due to infrastructure investments and rural to urban migration.

Shadow growth: Top rung cities that have grown due to in-migration and aerial expansion show strong trend towards suburbanisation.

Inequity, social and environmental imbalances in cities

Big cities have not been able to absorb labor and investments within the formal sector of economy leading to problem of slums and informal economy. 21% of urban population live in slums. Nearly 40-50 per cent of people live in slums of Mumbai.

About 25.7% of the urban population live below the poverty line. While in class I cities 12 per cent of the households are below poverty line, in medium towns it is 23% -- even higher than rural areas.

Urban planning has tried density control through physical planning but failed to check in-migration or address the issue of basic services.

Social and environmental impacts of these trends are severe as there is also high level of inequity in the provision of basic services in cities. Poor are pushed to periphery.

The challenge of urban governance

• Gregarious use of energy, resource metabolism of cities and their enormous wastes challenge urban governance.

• This demands very strong regulatory capacity to address these problems and to improve liveability of cities.

• Change planning mindset. Urban planning and design should aim for public health, low carbon and energy footprint, and urban community wellbeing.

• Implement integrated policies to minimise resource use, and waste generation and improve liveability of cities.

• Improve urban municipal governance

How are we going to manage this growth?

The issue is not about growth but about distribution, equity and urban governance

Air pollution and mobility crisis: Cities are being built for a small group of car owners, disregarding the mobility needs of the majority of urban population. Pollution and congestion costs high.

Solid waste and hazardous waste: 120,000 tonnes of garbage everyday in Indian cities. But very limited disposal, re-use and recycling capacities. Waste to energy remains a non-starter. Colonisation of land for waste disposal is leading to conflicts.

Water and waste water: Per capita water supply ranges from 9 lpcd to 584 lpcd across urban India. Only 72 cities have partial sewerage facilities and 17 have some primary treatment facilities and …..

Energy impacts: Cities are products of abundant cheap energy. Wide gap in demand and supply, wastage. One third of India living in cities consumes 87% of nation’s electricity. Remains energy inefficient. Both direct use of energy like fuels for vehicles, electricity, heating, cooling, etc and also embodied energy of building materials, and consumer items etc. are high and wasteful.

Land constraints: Urban sprawl build more inefficiencies

Maximum city

`Vision Mumbai’ (Mackinsy Plan)… Build another Shanghai… it hits out at poor… reduce slums… build free ways and expressways….What about equity? 49% of population are in slums……..

Urban sprawl – glitzy towns in dark shadows…..

Privatised new towns……Town of affluent but infrastructure of poor-- 70% of water needs from ground water; Groundwater table falling at a rate of 1 to 1.2 meters annually; dropped by 16 meters in last 20 years-- Only 40% of the DLF area connected by sewer line-- Only 70-75% of solid waste transported; No landfill site-- Poor public transport connectivity -- Due to acute power shortage heavy dependence on generator-sets-- Violation of development rules related to open spaces and community services

If cities grow big its scale and density also make waste treatment, recycling facilities, and public transport more efficient.

…..But efficiency gains can be limited in Indian cities due to poor urban governance…..

Positioning the debate

• Air pollution, public health, energy and vehicles…..

Exploding the myth of safe air

Particulates and other air toxins like benzene can be lethal even in small doses

WHO mandates no safe level

WHO recommends not only eliminating extreme cases of high pollution but decreasing average exposure levels among all.

Ultrafine particles 0.65 microns

Magnified 200,000 times

Public health policy still ignores the link between air pollution and health

How far tiny particles penetrate your lungs

Fine particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5): Trigger lung cancer, respiratory and heart problems. Very high levels in cities.

Oxides of nitrogen: Forms smog and ozone. Triggers respiratory and heart problems. A growing national problem

Carbon monoxide: Reduces oxygen carrying capacity of blood. Impairs hearth and nervous system. High levels but on the mend.

Sulphur dioxide: Very low levels. But contribute to deadly sulphate particles. Toxic.

Benzene: Carcinogenic: Triggers blood cancer

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Cause cancer. Dangerous even at trace levels.

Tiny killers – particulates – most dangerous in Indian cities

More challenges…..Newer technology solutions have further splintered the particles into an invisible size that defies measurement.

Caught in trade offs. Technologies needed to control particulate emissions have increased other harmful and health damaging pollutants like NOx and its attendant problem of ozone.

Daily dose of poison and combat priority

India: Proliferating hotspots

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

PM10 SO2 NO2

CriticalHighModerateLow

Source: Estimated based on CPCB data, Source: Estimated based on CPCB data, comparison with residential area standardcomparison with residential area standard

Half of the cities are critically polluted due to high PM10, even NO2 is rising Half of the cities are critically polluted due to high PM10, even NO2 is rising in many of them – a twin troublein many of them – a twin trouble

Opportunity for integrated action…..Nearly 56 cities have city action plans. The process has accelerated in 8 cities.

City based plan identifies the combination of local, state, and central actions and emission controls strategies for pollution control.

The city based action must be strengthened further to define target reduction, and related control measures, with schedule for implementation and compliance

Build strong interface between national air quality planning process and city based action

Delhi is an important example……

City based clean air action plan takes root…

2000-04: Delhi fought hard to get breathing space

Deadly particles:

After a short respite the curve turns upward

Source: CPCB

RSPM

0

60

120

180

Res. Areas Ind. Areas

mic

rogr

am/ c

ubic

met

re

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

NOx levels: rising steadily

Source: CPCB

NOx

0

10

20

30

40

50

Res. Areas Ind. Areas

mic

rog

ram

/ cu

bic

me

tre

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

NAAQS (R) 60 microgram per cubicmetre

Deadly particles The PM10 trend in key citiesThe PM10 trend in key cities

0

50

100

150

200

250

Solap

ur

Ahmed

abad

Vara

nasi

Chen

nai

Pune

Kolka

ta

Kanp

ur

Jodh

pur

Hyder

abad

Delhi

Patn

a

Bang

alor

e

Luck

now

Farid

abad

Mum

bai

mic

rog

ram

/cu

bic

met

er

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Standard

Source: Estimated based on CPCB data, Source: Estimated based on CPCB data, comparison with residential area standardcomparison with residential area standard

Evidence of action in big cities. Falling PM10 levels. But still unacceptable Evidence of action in big cities. Falling PM10 levels. But still unacceptable levels. There is still a long way to golevels. There is still a long way to go

The new threatNONO22 trend in key cities trend in key cities

Source: Estimated based on CPCB data, Source: Estimated based on CPCB data, comparison with residential area standardcomparison with residential area standard

NOx levels are rising in many cities. Kolkata is among the NOx hotspotsNOx levels are rising in many cities. Kolkata is among the NOx hotspots

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Solap

ur

Ahmed

abad

Varana

si

Chenna

i

Pune

Kolka

ta

Kanpu

r

Hyder

abad

Delhi

Banga

lore

Luck

now

Faridab

ad

Mum

bai

mic

rogr

am p

er c

ubic

met

er

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Standard

Energy Climate Challenge

(1) The great guzzle…..

The great guzzler: Transport sector uses up nearly 40 per cent of total consumption of oil and oil products

Explosive vehicle numbers: Four wheelers increased five fold in two decades. Consumption of fuels by vehicles in 2035 could be six times that of the 2005 level. This increase to be driven by light-duty vehicles, at an annual average growth of 10 per cent by 2030.

LCVs will burn up nearly the same amounts of total energy consumed by the entire transport sector today. Heavy-duty vehicles will still splurge the most.  Can we afford this when nearly 85 per cent of our crude oil needs will be imported at exorbitant rates by 2030? (WEO 2007)

Shift of freight from railways to trucks: Share of railways down to 26%. Transport energy demand in India would grow even faster if all highways planned are constructed. (WEO 2006)2006)

Pressure of high commuting demand: By 2030-31 on an average Indians will travel thrice as many kilometers as they traveled during 2000-01.

2) Great guzzle…

Strong consumer interest in fuel efficiency: Urban Indians increasingly spending more on conveyance. Monthly expenditure data from the CSO shows that between 1993-94 and 2004-05, the share of expenses on transport has gone up -- from 11.3% to 17.1% and that on food has declined.

CO2 mitigation a challenge in the transport sector: IEA’s WEO 2006 estimates transport’s share to CO2 emissions from oil is around 35% in India.

Higher fuel prices hurts. It hurts more if vehicles are fuel inefficient.

Rolling stock of inefficient vehicles will continuously lock up huge amount of energy

Sheer numbers of cars will undercut the fuel savings possible from public transport.

Are we losing it?

Small and medium cars will remain dominant. But……Shift towards heavier and powerful cars expected at a faster rate.

This will negate efficiency gains..

The subtle link….

• Local pollution can enhance the warming effects….• HC + NOx lead to regional ozone but also to background hemispheric ozone• CO becomes CO2 but consumes OH radicals along the way increasing CH4• Diesel PM increases PM10 & PM2.5 & ultrafine PM but also black carbon

• Now the emerging science says that warming gases can enhance local public health impacts as well…e.g., each increase of 1 degree Celsius caused by carbon dioxide, can enhance PM and ozone build up. The resulting air pollution can lead thousands of additional deaths and many more cases of respiratory illness and asthma etc. (Mark Jacobson 2008)

Fight for efficiency…..

• Pressure building up for fuel economy standards. Industry resistant

• Auto fuel policy asked for mandatory voluntary declaration of fuel economy levels of car models This has not been enforced.

• Integrated Energy Policy 2006…….– The Integrated Energy Policy 2006 proposes improvement in

vehicle fuel economy by 50 per cent by 2030. Oil requirement can go down by nearly 86 million tonnes by 2031-32.This means a saving of US$ 36 billion at the rate of nearly US$ 57 per barrel of crude oil

• This amounts to 65 per cent of total current consumption and in terms of carbon dioxide

• emissions reduction it is equal to removing 7 million of today’s four wheeled vehicles.

Regulatory challenges

Challenge of air quality governance

• A spate of laws in India..• December 1984: Bhopal Gas Disaster • India learns the pain of industrial growth. • 1986: The Environment Protection Act is passed. • Environmental Impact Assessment mandated. • Environmental audits introduced.• But by the mid-1990s things were out of hand.

Pollution in cities, ….toxic contamination growing.

Air quality planning: Challenge of governance

• The paradox: Trend toward strong environmental laws.

• But governments do not act.

• Role of civil society and Judiciary becomes important

• Public interest litigation (PIL) provides opportunity to the civil society to drive policies

Judiciary intervenes as the executive fails.

Total air quality management approach missing

Multiple agencies contribute either directly or indirectly to the norm setting process related to emissions and fuel quality for vehicles, transportation measures and setting of overall policies for ambient air quality.

The Planning Commissions in one of its report has stated that the SPCBs have been reduced to “only Industrial Pollution Control Boards”. Implementation of the regulations related to the vehicular pollution, for instance, does not fall within the jurisdiction of the CPCB and SPCBs.

Fractured governance

Role of civil society and Judiciary becomes important.

Public interest litigation (PIL) provides opportunity to the civil society to drive policies

Judiciary intervenes as the executive fails.

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Industrial Areas Residential, Rural &other Areas

Sensitive Areas* General Areas

Existing Annual Standards Proposed Standards

mic

rogr

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RSPM

SO2

NO2

Existing annual average standard

Proposed annual average standard

Air quality standards to be more stringent

India has adopted national ambient air quality standards

Time bound air quality targets are not set to meet standardsNo punitive action on state governments for not meeting the

ambient air quality norms.

Abatement plans are not designed to meet local air quality demands

Weak air quality surveillance impedes informed decision making

Ensure enforcement of air quality standards, accountability and compliance.

Clean air targets still elusive

Trend towards auto dependent cities………

Toxic diesel…..

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Num

bers

Diesel car Diesel Jeep Diesel Van

Agency Red alert on diesel exhaust

US EPA (2002)

Likely human carcinogen

CARB (1998) Toxic air contaminant

HEI (1995) Potential to cause cancer

NIOSH (1988) Potential occupational carcinogen

IARC (1989) Probable human carcinogen

WHO IPCS (1996)

Probable human carcinogen

1998: Diesel cars only 2% of the new car sales in Delhi. 2007: Diesel cars nearly 30% of new car sales2010: Projected to be 50% of the sales

Diesel cars more fuel efficient. Diesel cars more fuel efficient. But carbon content of diesel higher. But carbon content of diesel higher. So So CO2 emissions increase if more CO2 emissions increase if more fuel is burnt. fuel is burnt. PM and NOx emissions are several times higher. Diesel soot is Diesel soot is also a warming agent. also a warming agent.

Technology lag…..

•Between 1996 and 2005 the amount of fuel used for each 100 km driven by new cars in the UK decreased by 6% as a result of improvements in efficiency.

•Emissions of CO2 from private cars rose by 4% in the same period, mainly because of increasing distances travelled by car, which rose by 10%.

•PM10 emissions declined by 29% between 1996 and 2000 but subsequently decreased by only a further 3% … the improvements offset by an increase in the use of, and emissions from, diesel cars.

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.350.4

0.45

Petrol cars (>1400cc) Diesel cars (<1600cc)

Tox

ics

(gm

/km

)

Post 2005 Models NOx emissions

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

PM (g

m/k

m)

135

140

145

150155

160

165

170

175

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

CO

2 (g

m/k

m)

“New diesel cars in India are clean” - A Myth?Post 2005 diesel car model: High levels of PM, NOx and air toxics; Overwhelms the

CO2 advantage: A crippling trade-off

NOxNOx PMPM

Total air toxicsTotal air toxics CO2CO2

Solution exist to make diesel vehicles clean. But we do not have policies to enable them….

Source: ICCT

Reinvent the idea of mobility

0.2

0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 3

.8

8.0

17

.2

27

.5

45

.6

61

.4

0.1

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.6 4

.2 6.3

9.4 1

1.3

0.0

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20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2004,

in m

illio

ns

Two wheelers, car, jeeps and taxis Other vehicles

It took 30 years to reach the first million mark for personal vehicles in 1971.

Another 20 years to add two more million

Then in 10 years (1981-91) increased by 14 million

Another 10 years (1991-2001) – jumped by 28 million

This decade just in four years (2001 to 2004) we have added 16 million

Explosive numbers: A special challenge

Source: Computed on the basis of MOSRTH motor vehicle registration data

Vehicle registration in India: India’s urban population has grown 4.6 times, vehicle numbers have increased 158 times

Where is the space for more cars?

Availability of Road Length in Delhi

1922 1922

20702087

2103 21038.457.88 7.9

7.446.98

6.46

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006

in k

ilom

eter

s

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

in k

ilom

eter

s

Average length of road per 100 square kilometers Road length per thousand vehicles ( in kilometers)

Between 1996 and 2006 total road length in Delhi has increased by about 20 per cent. But cars increased by 132 per cent

Delhi has 21 per cent of its area under roads; only quarter of its population own cars; cars and two-wheelers together drive less than 20 per cent of its people -- and yet roads are choked

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

Dhola Kuan to Raja Garden

Raja Garden to Azadpur

Azadpur to I.S.B.T.

I.S.B.T. to B.S.Gurudwara

B.S.Gurudwara to AIIMS

AIIMS to Dhola Kuan

PCU per hour

1990 2004

Nearly 123 per cent growth on many roads (in PCU/hour)

Source: Based on City Development Plan of Delhi, 2006, Eco Smart

Peak volume traffic has increased phenomenally

Speed Plummets

Cars encourage urban sprawl

The “Gurgaon” cataclysm

Development and density controls also encourage move towards suburbs; e.g. Satellite towns around Delhi, Mumbai suburbs etc.

Uncontrolled suburbanisation: Gurgaon, 32 kilometer from Delhi: 1961: 37868 population. 2001: 1.66 million. Car dependent city -- unfettered growth despite severe water constraints. 70% of water demand met from ground water. Alarming drop in ground water level. No land for solid waste disposal.

Satellite townships have created 3.42 million daily trips -- of these 37 per cent of the trips are made from Delhi to NCR, 42 per cent from NCR to Delhi and the rest of the trips occur in NCR but outside Delhi – add to pollution and congestion.

Result congestion….

Peak hour traffic speed plummets…It can be as low as 10 hours per hour in Delhi, or 7 km per hour in Kolkata…

Congestion costs can be as high as Rs 3000 to 4000 crore per year.

ASSOCHAM study: the commuting population could be losing Rs 420 million human hours in congestion. Each day 2.5 hours are lost in commuting to destinations.

Strike at the very root….

Restrain personal vehicle usage.

Build public transport

International Energy Agency estimates 100 per cent difference in oil use in a future scenario dominated by high quality bus system as opposed to that dominated by personal vehicles in Delhi

ADB study projects that in Bangalore an increase in public transport share from 62 per cent to 80 per cent can save 21 per cent of fuel consumption.

Public transport is our strength. But wrong policies discourage them

-- Buses still meet more than 60 per cent of our travel requirements. Build on this strength.

-- Without intervention increase in mobility will change the modal split in favour of personal vehicles. -- Share of public transport may drop from 75.7% in 2001-02 to 44.7 % in 2030-31. On a per passenger basis a car uses six times more energy than a bus. (IIT Kanpur)

Wrong policies discourage buses

2,90,431

30,521

2,725

5.69

2.39

0.44

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Two wheeler Cars Bus0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total annual tax per vehicle Total tax per vehicle-km

Tax per vehicle-km

Annual tax

Total tax burden per vehicle kilometer is 2.6 times higher for buses than cars in India, says

the World Bank.

Tax correction can encourage buses. In Delhi if lifetime tax is amortised for the life of the vehicles then the owner pays roughly Rs 300 as taxes per year. But buses pay for more for carrying passengers. They pay about Rs

13000 per year – 43 times more than cars. .

Urban form and sustainability

Dense growth helps………

Who walks in our cities

High Risk Groups

Cars lead to most iniquitous use of urban land

Cities are being built for urban minority

• Parking is one of the most wasteful uses of cars: Out of 8760 hours in a year the total steering time of an average car is 400 hours. For about 90 to 95 per cent of the time a car is parked.

• Insatiable demand for land: If demand for land for an average car is computed on the basis of the average size of the car and one parking space per car -- the total cars already uses up 3% of the city’s urbanised area; or 10.8% extra land available for urbanisation. The forest cover in Delhi is 11.5 %.

• Iniquitous use of land: A car is allotted 23 sq m for parking. Under low cost housing scheme. The car owning minority using up more and more road space and urban space.

Land is limited. Where will cities find more land to park cars?

Parking: Hidden subsidy!

EROS

Car: Rs 10 for 12 hrs

2Ws: Rs 5 for 12 hrs

FOR CARSRs 20 for 2 hrs,Rs 40 : 2-4 hrs

Rs 60 : 4-6 Rs 100 : 6-10

hrsRs 250 : 24 hrs

No “on-street” parking proposed but not

implemented

Poor mobility managementBy 2021 there will be a shortfall of nine million trips

per day

Solution: Public transportBut progress very slow

Public transport projects to engineer change High capacity bus system – 100km; Metro plan -- 245 km planned

If implemented on time and on an extensive scale, can make significant impact on car numbers, congestion and air quality. But these have longer time schedule.

Need effective action in the short run as well. Augment the available public transport.

Supreme court directive to increase the bus fleet to 10,000. City fails to meet the target

The Way Ahead

Maximise public health, energy and climate benefits Need good urban governance

Technology roadmapReview auto fuel policy roadmap to leapfrog emissions and fuel standards. Avoid trade offs between pollution and efficiency

Reinvent MobilityBuild public transport to leverage changeEnforce car restraint measures

Improve fuel efficiency with mandatory fuel economy standards

Cross cutting measures: Use fiscal policies to speed up change. Improve air and health surveillance

Deepen, reform and strengthen the environment regulatory institutions

Thank You