Tampere University of Technology Sanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research Urban Generator intro input data simulation results
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Urban Generator
intro input data simulation results
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
SLEUTH model
Cellular automaton based urban growth model
*developed by Keith C. Clarke, University of California, Santa Barbara
*written in C, running under unix, http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/
The model
• is initialized with four type of input data
• applies growth rules controlled by five growth coefficients
• can be calibrated to correspond recent development by usinghistorical cross section data (input data)
> individual growth coefficients for the area
• basic simulation unit is a growth cycle
[Slope, Land cover, Exclusion, Urbanization, Transportation, and Hillshade]
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
SLEUTH operational principle
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
The model includes the following self modification procedure:
Self modification
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
(hillshade)background
urban
Input Dataexcludedslope transportation
(landcover)for deltatron module
binary/gray scale gif files
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Growth Coefficients
Diffusion
Breed
Spread
Slope
Road Gravity
Coefficient values effect how the growth rules are applied. These values are calibrated by comparing simulated land cover change with a historical data of the area.
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Growth Rules
Spontaneous Growth (diffusion, slope)
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
New Spreading Center Growth (breed, slope)
Growth Rules
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Edge Growth (spread, slope)
Growth Rules
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Road-Influenced Growth (breed, road gravity, diffusion)
Growth Rules
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Calibration
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
TUT contribution
• Applicability of Finnish GIS data bases
• Comparison of ’free’ & ’controlled’ growth land use policy scenarios
• Testing changes in ’total potential of growth’ of excluded layer
• Experimenting different representations of transportation networks
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Case Helsinki
• Historical data 1965 – (1975)- 1985 –(1995)– 2005
• Calibrations with diffrent input data
Urban area: 5 historical cross sections
Excluded:
’controlled’ / ’free’ growth
normalized / unnormalized
Transportation:
main roads as lines (binary)
accessibility surface (grayscale)
railroads + stations r=600m (binary)
main roads + railroads + stations (binary)
• Predictions 2050
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Case Helsinki – Input DataUrban Area
1965 1985 2005
Urban areas were defined on the basis of Finnish grid format cencus data: - sum of floor area in 250x250m cells
- number buildings in 250x250m cells
Areas with quite low density were selected as ’urbanized areas’ in order to catch the prawl-like development.
(1975) (1995)
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Case Helsinki – Input Data
Excluded
’controlled growth’ ’free growth’
unnormalized normalized
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Case Helsinki – Input Data
Excluded 1 – Controlled Growth
1965 1985 2005
Regional plans describing probability of growth.
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Excluded 1 – Controlled Growth
Probability of urbanization:
Central functions 100
Housing/ Industrial areas 80
Undefined/ special areas 60
Recreation areas 40
Protected areas 20
Water Sytems 0
Case Helsinki – Input Data
Pro
babilit
y incre
ases >
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Case Helsinki – Input Data
Excluded 2 – ’Free’ Growth / unnormalized
Probability of urbanization is equal everywhere – except areas of water systems.
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Case Helsinki – Input Data
Unnormalized Normalized (50 % of MAX)
Excluded 2 – ’Free’ growth
Total potential of growth
= sum of probabilities of cells to be urbanized
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Case Helsinki – Input Data
Transportation
Accessibility of road networkMain roads as lines
Railroads + stations Main roads + railroads
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Case Helsinki – Input Data
Transportation
– binary step based accessibility analysis of road network.
Accessibility (connectivity) analysis transformed to grayscale surface.
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Case Helsinki – Input Data
Slope
Slopes were generated from topographical database.
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Simulation PredictionsPrediction maps: Probability of a cell to be urbanized.
0 … 100 %
The simulations were carried out with all input data combinations.
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Simulation area of Helsinki region
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Prediction - Helsinki
Input
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Prediction - Turku
Input
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Predictions Helsinki 2040
’Controlled’ Growth
’Free’ Growth
accessibility roads as lines railroads + stations main roads + railroads
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Predictions Helsinki 2050
’Controlled’ Growth
’Free’ Growth
railroads + stations main roads + railroadsaccessibility roads as lines
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Hki 022 Hki 029Hki 030
Predictions
In all three cases transportation layer: accessibility.
With different ’excluded’ inputs
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
PredictionsHKI 10 unnormalized HKI 18 nomalized
Transportation: Roads as lines.
Comparison of unnormalized and normalized case
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Helsinki
Predictions ’Free’ growth as ’excluded’ input
Protected areas have only small probability to be
urbanized also in the case of ’free’ growth.
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Case Helsinki Case Turku
Predictions Accessibility as ’transportation’ input
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Predictions With different ’transportation’ inputs / Case Turku
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Some Conclusions
• Total potential of growth in ’excluded’ layer impacts
to amount of growth as expected and should be
taken into account when creating scenarios
• Representation of transportation network influenced
significantly to form and focus of growth
• Strenght of the SLEUTH model is highly visual results
• Future work: tools for analyses of prediction images
Tampere University of TechnologySanna Iltanen EDGE Laboratory for Architectural and Urban Research
Thank you!