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Urban and Regional Planning Urban and Regional Planning
Analysis,Analysis, Dr. Pam PerlichDr. Pam Perlich
Patty Murphy, April 4, 2006Patty Murphy, April 4, 2006
Program ProgressProgram Progressin ain a
Political Political EnvironmentEnvironment
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DemographicsDemographics ExpendituresExpenditures Economic Change Economic Change
and Revenueand Revenue Utah PoliticsUtah Politics
Table of Table of ContentsContents
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DemographicsDemographics
Pictures courtesy of Jordan School District
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2004 and 2005 Enrollment2004 and 2005 Enrollmentby Gradeby Grade
33,00034,00035,00036,00037,00038,00039,00040,00041,00042,00043,000
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2005 2004
Start K in 2008
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2003-03 and 2004-05 Enrollment 2003-03 and 2004-05 Enrollment ChangeChange
by Race/Ethnicityby Race/Ethnicity
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
White Hispanic Asian/ PI Black Am. Indian
2004-05 2003-04
Start K in 2008
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2004-05 Enrollment 2004-05 Enrollment ChangeChange
by Race/Ethnicityby Race/Ethnicity
WhiteHispanic
Asian/PIBlack
Am. IndianStart K in 2008
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Oct 1, 1990 and Oct 1, 2005Oct 1, 1990 and Oct 1, 2005Hispanic as Percentage of Total Hispanic as Percentage of Total
EnrollmentEnrollment
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
1990 2005
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Oct 1, 1977 – Oct 1, 2005Oct 1, 1977 – Oct 1, 2005Hispanic and All-Other EnrollmentHispanic and All-Other Enrollment
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Hispanic All Other
Start K in 2008
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Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Actual-Projected State Enrollment Actual-Projected State Enrollment
ErrorError
993
-1,067
244607
-766
-1,800
109
-563
1,348
325994
1,582
4,472
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000Start K in 2008
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Projected State Enrollment Percentage Projected State Enrollment Percentage
ErrorError
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Start K in 2008
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Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006Actual and Projected State Actual and Projected State
EnrollmentEnrollment
430,000440,000450,000460,000470,000480,000490,000500,000510,000520,000530,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Actual Projection
Start K in 2008
Sources: USOE, Finance and Statistics, and the Common Data Committee.
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1960-2005 Actual Enrollment;1960-2005 Actual Enrollment;2006-2015 Projected Enrollment2006-2015 Projected Enrollment
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000ProjectedActual
Sources: USOE, Finance and Statistics, the Common Data Committee, the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, and the Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
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ExpenditureExpenditures:s:
Labor IntensiveLabor Intensive
Picture courtesy of Jordan School District
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$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
FY 2004 Expenditures per FY 2004 Expenditures per PupilPupilby Stateby State
US $9,660
Utah $6,142
Sources: USOE, and the US Bureau of the Census.
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$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
FY 1970 - FY 2005 FY 1970 - FY 2005 Utah K-12 Expenditures per Utah K-12 Expenditures per
PupilPupilInflation AdjustedInflation Adjusted
Sources: USOE, and the National Center for Education Statistics, US Department of Education.
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Growth = Growth = Enrollment Change Enrollment Change
+ + InflationInflation
K-12 Education K-12 Education FundsFunds
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FY 1976-FY 2007 WPU Value FY 1976-FY 2007 WPU Value and Enrollment Changeand Enrollment Change
Inflation AdjustedInflation Adjusted
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
WPU Value Inflation Adjusted Enrollment
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FY 1996-FY 2007 Uniform School Funds per FY 1996-FY 2007 Uniform School Funds per PupilPupil
and Enrollment Annual Changeand Enrollment Annual ChangeInflation AdjustedInflation Adjusted
-5.00%
-3.00%
-1.00%
1.00%
3.00%
5.00%
7.00%
9.00%
FY1996 FY1997 FY1998 FY1999 FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007
-5.00%
-3.00%
-1.00%
1.00%
3.00%
5.00%
7.00%
9.00%
USF per Pupil Inflation Adjusted Enrollment
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State and Local State and Local Revenue: Revenue:
11.5% Increase11.5% Increase
Enrollment: 2.9% Enrollment: 2.9% IncreaseIncrease
FY 07FY 07
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“We are making progress:
Things are getting worse at a slower
rate.”Patrick Ogden, State Associate Superintendent
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At-Risk ProgramsAt-Risk Programs
5.4% Increase5.4% Increase
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$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
100 200 300 400 500
Students
Start K in 2008
Perfect Funding EquityPerfect Funding Equity$1 = 1 Student$1 = 1 Student
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$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
100 200 300 400 500
Students
Start K in 2008
Practically Perfect Funding DistributionPractically Perfect Funding DistributionGini Coefficient: .044Gini Coefficient: .044
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Economic Change andEconomic Change andRevenueRevenue
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Does education drive economic development, or
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Does economic development drive
education?
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1960-2015 Utah Personal 1960-2015 Utah Personal IncomeIncomein millionsin millions
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, and the Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.
Projected
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1979-2015 Utah Personal Income 1979-2015 Utah Personal Income per Studentper Student
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
Source: Economy.com, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, and USOE, Finance and Statistics.
Projected
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1970-2015 Total K-12 Education 1970-2015 Total K-12 Education Expenditures as a Percent of Personal Expenditures as a Percent of Personal
IncomeIncomeInflation AdjustedInflation Adjusted
5.0%
5.2%
5.4%
5.6%
5.8%
6.0%
6.2%
6.4%Projected
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.
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““Is what you are Is what you are doing effective?”doing effective?”
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One PartyOne PartyTaxpayers AssociationTaxpayers Association
Charter Schools Charter Schools (“(“Private Schools for Free!”)Private Schools for Free!”)
Utah Politics:Utah Politics:
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Parents for ChoiceParents for ChoicePrivate School SubsidiesPrivate School Subsidies$50,000 per legislative $50,000 per legislative
candidatecandidate
Utah Politics:Utah Politics:
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Governor HuntsmanGovernor HuntsmanUtah State Office of EdUtah State Office of Ed
School DistrictsSchool DistrictsUtah Education Assoc, Utah Education Assoc,
PTSAPTSA
Utah Politics:Utah Politics:
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Immigration Laws Immigration Laws Immigration PracticeImmigration Practice
Federal DeficitFederal DeficitOil and Utility PricesOil and Utility Prices
GlobalizationGlobalization
Other ImpactsOther Impacts
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““Don’t confuse Don’t confuse actionaction with with
activityactivity….”….”
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Patty MurphyPatty MurphyBudget AdministratorBudget Administrator
538-7577538-7577
[email protected] @schools.utah.gov
Questions?Questions?