Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) U.S. (NOAA) Winter Winter NOAA G-4 and NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s Air Force C-130s Japan Japan Palau Palau Typhoon Landfall U.S.(NSF/ONR), EU, Japan, Korea, [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3 WC-130] WMO WMO WCRP/WWRP WCRP/WWRP Asian/Indian Asian/Indian Monsoon Monsoon U.S. U.S. ONR/NSF ONR/NSF TCS-08 TCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] [NRL P-3, WC-130] THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts SoWMEX
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts. Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY. U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s. U.S.(NSF/ONR), EU, Japan, Korea, [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3 WC-130]. U.S. ONR/NSF - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY
U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)
WinterWinter
NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and
Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s
JapanJapanPalauPalau
Typhoon Landfall
U.S.(NSF/ONR), EU,Japan, Korea,
[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3WC-130]
U.S.(NSF/ONR), EU,Japan, Korea,
[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3WC-130]
WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP
Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon
U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF
TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
SoWMEX
Tropical Cyclone Structure - 2008
I: Tropical Cyclone Formation
II: Tropical Cyclone Intensification
III: Tropical Cyclone Structure Change
Acknowledgments: Office of Naval Research, Marine Meteorology National Science Foundation, Large-Scale Dynamics USAF, 13th AF
Key science questions to be addressed in a program aimed at increased understanding and predictability of tropical cyclone
characteristics during formation, intensification, and recurvature over the western North Pacific
• Highlights– Incorporates multiple space and time scales
• Large scale controls– Global and basin-wide spatial scales– Medium-range and synoptic temporal scales
• Mesoscale organization pathways– During formation– During intensification
– Primary hypotheses with respect to:• Large-scale role in pre-conditioning• Mesoscale organizational pathways leading to construction of a potential
vorticity monolith– Role of low-level convergence associated with deep convective cells– Stratiform regions of mesoscale convective systems
• Relative roles of environmental and vortex structures in determining the evolution of the outer wind structure
– In tandem with the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)
Tropical cyclone formation, structure and structure change:Challenges to Maritime Operations
• Variety of conditions from which a tropical cyclone may form over the western North Pacific
Warning graphics from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for TY Tokage. The shaded region defines the danger area to be avoided. This area is based on the uncertainty associated with track and outer wind structure over the ensuing five days.Note:The danger area nearly covers the entire East China Sea for a period of at least 5 days.The change in track forecast from straight to recurvature, which may be due to the influence of the outer wind structure
Pre-TY Tokage monsoon depression TY Tokage 0000 UTC 14 October 2004
TY Tokage: 0000 UTC 14 October 2004 TY Tokage: 1200 UTC 15 October 2004
• Midget tropical cyclones often develop in narrow zone along the periphery of a monsoon gyre or in association with an upper-level trough
For this small tropical cyclone, the danger area is only 4 deg. in diameter and there is no change in track
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
TS Danas (11W) 1200 UTC 8 Sep 2007 TS Danas (11W) Danger area graphic 0000 UTC 9 Sep 2007
Tropical cyclone formation, structure and structure change:Challenges to Maritime Operations
How does the large-scale atmosphere and ocean environment control the mesoscale
environment prior to tropical cyclone formation?
Objective: medium-range predictability of the tropical large-scale environmental factors that influence tropical cyclone formation
Large-scale modes of variability
What are the relative roles of the primary mesoscale mechanisms (bottom-up and top-down) in determining
the location, timing, and rate of tropical cyclone formation in the monsoon trough environment of the
What are the relative roles of environmentally-induced and vortex-generated mechanisms versus
cyclogenesis-determined initial conditions in determining the outer wind structural evolution of
western North Pacific tropical cyclones?
Objective: Increased understanding and predictability of factors that impact the evolution of the outer-wind structure of an intensifying tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific.
Mesoscale Forcing
Syn
op
tic
Fo
rcin
g
Mesoscale type:
Small Tro
pical Cyclones
Com
bina
tion
type
Larg
e an
d Sm
all
Trop
ical
Cyc
lone
s
Syn
optic
Typ
e:
Larg
e Tr
opic
al C
yclo
nes
Increase in forecast uncertainty over tropical and midlatitude regions often occurs due to tropical cyclones and the movement of tropical cyclones into the midlatitudes
TY Tokage, October 2004Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system
Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa
What are the key structural aspects of the tropical cyclone and its environment that limit the predictability of recurvature and
the start of extratropical transition over the subtropical western North Pacific?
Ensemble Prediction System from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
5-Day Forecasts associated with the Extratropical Transition of TY Maemi (2003)
Agreement among membersimplies high predictability
Large spread among members implies decreased predictability
Graphic supplied by Prof. S. Jones and D. Anwender
Summary• Much recent national and international attention on TCs • Four Major Weather Forecast Problems in the Pacific• Lack of understanding of storm scale processes is the biggest knowledge gap
(basic research common to all four)• Proposing:
– First major WESTPAC field experiment since TCM93– First detailed observations of TC outer winds, genesis & life-cycle (in situ aircraft, radar,
dropsondes, lidar, remote sensing)– First measurements. to validate new and advanced satellite obs. of WP TCs– Utilize the post-CBLAST coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere modeling system as a testbed
to gain understanding of the processes as informed and constrained by the field data• Expected accomplishments:
– Increase the predictability of the environmental forcing, formation, outer wind structure and intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific
– Leverage several international efforts – GOAL: to reduce errors in TC structure and intensity forecasts by 50% within a
decade – will also increase warning times and improve ocean and wave forecasts