Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) U.S. (NOAA) Winter Winter NOAA G-4 and NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s Air Force C-130s Japan Japan Palau Palau Typhoon Landfall EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] WMO WMO WCRP/WWRP WCRP/WWRP Asian/Indian Asian/Indian Monsoon Monsoon U.S. U.S. ONR/NSF ONR/NSF TCS-08 TCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] [NRL P-3, WC-130] THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts SoWMex TH08 PROBEX Extra observations and targeted observations to improve track prediction Additional Targeting Component at DLR and FZK, Germany
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Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s JapanPalau Typhoon Landfall EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR.
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Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY
U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)
WinterWinter
NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and
Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s
JapanJapanPalauPalau
Typhoon Landfall
EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada
[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]
EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada
[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]
WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP
Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon
U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF
TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
SoWMex
TH08
PROBEX
Extra observations and targetedobservations to improvetrack prediction
Additional Targeting Component at DLR and FZK, Germany
Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY
U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)
WinterWinter
NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and
Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s
JapanJapanPalauPalau
Typhoon Landfall
EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada
[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]
EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada
[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]
WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP
Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon
U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF
TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
Additional Extratropical Transition Components at DLR and FZK, Germany
• August-September 2008
• Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in:
• tropical cyclone formation• intensification • Motion/track• decay and/or ET
• Downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather on North America, Europe with research interests in
• tropical and midlatitude predictability • tropical cyclones
– Recurvature – ET
• intense extratropical cyclogenesis
• International Collaborators: U.S. (NSF, ONR), Germany, Japan, China, South Korea, Canada, France, U.K., Taiwan
PANDOWAE A new German research group for THORPEX PDP research
Partners: Sarah Jones, Doris Anwender, Ulli Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier
(University of Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe) Heini Wernli, Volkmar Wirth (University of Mainz)
George Craig, Andreas Dörnbrack, Martin Weissmann (DLR) Dieter Peters (Leibniz Institute for Atmospheric Physics) Conny Schwierz (University of Leeds)
2 Projects contributing directly to T-PARC (despite name of group!):
1) The impact of extratropical transition on downstream predictability (PI: Jones, 1 Postdoc, 3 Ph.D. students)
Data denial and data impact studies for ET in collaboration with ECMWF Investigation of singular vectors targeted on tropical cyclones and their impact on
ECMWF EPS forecasts
TIGGE case studies with high resolution modelling Idealised modelling and PV inversion
2) Adaptive observing strategies for active airborne remote-sensing instruments (PI: Weissmann, 1 Ph.D. student)
Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector
Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia
TY Tokage, October 2004Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system
Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa
Adaptive observations and plane sequencingNRL Singular vector sensitivity for TY Man-Yi (2007)
SV Graphic supplied by Dr. Carolyn Reynolds, NRL Monterey
TY Nabi TY Saola
Impacts on Numerical Model Performance
HurricaneMaria
MOTIVATION: IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS
The poleward movement of a tropical cyclone often results in a period of reduced forecast accuracy in operational numerical global weather prediction models
29/0830/08
31/0801/09
02/0903/09
04/09
05/09
06/09
07/09
08/09
09/09
Variability among ensemble members as a measure of the predictability downstream from an ET event
Standard deviation among GFS ensemble members from the model integration initiated at 1200 UTC 6 September 2005 increases downstream of the extratropical transition of TY Nabi
Ex-TY Nabi
Ex-TY Saola
200 hPa meridional wind anomalies
Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream response
Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced downstream response
What are the primary mechanisms that determine whether a downstream response will occur?
Summary: Major Science Issues•Mechanisms
- Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics- influence of TC structure
- outflow
- diabatic process and their impacts on the midlatitude flow
- Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics
Tropical cyclone core region
Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface
Midlatitude impact region
Summary: Major Science Issues•Mechanisms
- Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics- influence of TC structure
- outflow
- warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow
- Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics
•Predictability (understanding and assessment)- Ensemble spread- Forecast error growth- Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream response
- Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle
•Predictability (increase)- Predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to supplemental/targeted
observations - test new strategies and observational systems - Data assimilation strategies, impacts.
NRL P-3 all FL 150OKO – 1 (33oN,141oE) 212 n mi1 – 2 (30oN, 142.5oE) 225 n mi2 – 3 (31.5oN, 146oE) 232 n mi3 – 4 (35oN, 142.5oE) 315 n mi4 – OKO 185 n mi
1169 n miDrops at waypoints and 60 n mi intervals
FALCON Mission in two stages with a re-fueling stop at MSJ
RJSM
0030 UTC 15 July 2007 TY Man-Yi
WC-1301787 n mi decaying TC CoreSatelliet validation mission
RODN
RJTA
NRL P-31986 n miET Ridge Building, warm frontogenesis
DLR Falcon Leg 11287 n miTC outflow-Jet InteractionLeg 2: 1414 n miTC outflow – Jet Interaction
Potential Aircraft Sampling Strategy during Extratropical Transition
DRIFTSONDE Released from HawaiiAltitude of 20-70 hPaApproximately 7-9 days to drift over thePhilippine SeaDropsonde release controlled from
Monterey, CA
GUAM
NSC
Day 12345
6
7
8Day 9
Driftsonde trajectories beginning 1 and 15 August and1 September 2007.
SummaryT-PARC and collaborating projects constitute a