Updated analysis of current climate policies and mitigation pledges

COP22 EU pavilion side event “Bridging the NDCs and 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets: global perspective”

Updated analysis of current climate policies and mitigation pledges

Takeshi Kuramochi8 November, 2016, Marrakech

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Current policy scenarios for 25 major emitting countries

New study by NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASA• NewClimate: largely based on its

analyses for, and informed by, the Climate Action Tracker

• PBL: FAIR and TIMER models• IIASA (LULUCF): GLOBIOM and G4M

models

https://newclimate.org/2016/11/04/greenhouse-gas-mitigation-scenarios-for-major-emitting-countries/

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Current policy scenarios for 25 major emitting countries

What’s new compared to previous studies*:• Wider country coverage from 13 to 25

(roughly 80% of global total GHG emissions)

• Country fact sheetso Info on 2020 pledge and NDC/INDCo Overview of current energy and climate

policies per sectoro Updated current policy emission projections

vs. pledges (incl. official data from latest national reports to UNFCCC)

https://newclimate.org/2016/11/04/greenhouse-gas-mitigation-scenarios-for-major-emitting-countries/

* https://newclimate.org/2015/05/12/enhancing-ambition-in-the-major-emitting-countries-2/, https://newclimate.org/2015/07/29/the-impact-of-good-practice-policies-on-regional-and-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions/

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Main finding: less than a third of the countries are on track to achieve the (I)NDCs

o Others require additional measures to achieve NDCs/INDCs. o Progress on cutting down GHG emissions also varies. For

some countries, current policies do not stop emissions from increasing until 2030

o Still more effort needed to stay well below 2 °C

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A country likely to meet NDC/INDC ≠ more stringent action

Targets differ in their ambition levels across countries• They are nationally determined and heterogeneous by nature;

Less than two years since the countries formulated their NDCs/INDCs. • Not surprising to see a gap between the mitigation targets and

current policies trajectories if countries pledged something above what they would have achieved anyway;

Countries have different policy-making approaches.• Some countries use their pledges or targets as a device to drive

more ambitious policies• Others use them merely to formalise the expected effect of

existing measures.

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Methodological limitations

Considers a wide range of effective national climate and energy policies, but does not provide a complete assessment of all policies. Provides the current state of play, numbers subject to change • Existing policies may change and/or be abandoned for a variety of

reasons, and new policies may be implemented.

Countries are implementing policies in various areas to a varying degree. • Difficulty of assessing the implementation status

For bottom-up calculations using external scenarios, it is not always fully clear how the impacts of existing policy measures are quantified.

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Morocco: Raised ambition in NDC

Current policies• Energy supplyo Installed RE capacity of 52% by

2030o 15-20% of total primary energy

by 2030• Energy efficiencyo 20% energy saving in 2030o Minimum efficiency

requirements for new buildings

Additional policies needed partly due to raised ambition in NDC

Source: NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASA (2016)

NDC: -17% vs. BAU in 2030(unconditional)-42% vs. BAU in 2030(conditional)

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Japan: additional measures needed to achieve 2030 targets

Current policies• Economy-wide

o Global warming tax (3USD/tCO2)• Energy supply

o Renewable electricity target 22-24% by 2030o Renewable Feed-In Tariffo Nuclear restart applications (as of Oct 2016)

• Energy efficiencyo Top Runner Standardso Building insulation standards

• F-gaseso Act on rational use and proper management

Current policies projections revised downwardAdditional policies needed regardless of future on nuclear

Source: NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASA (2016)

INDC: -26% vs. 2013 levels

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Mexico: current policies not sufficient for peaking before 2030

Current policies• Energy Transition Lawo Clean energy incl. cogeneration:

35% by 2024 (possibly less ambitious than previous RE targets)

o Power auctions for wind and solar• National Forestry Programmeo Reduce annual deforestation rate

to 0.2% of total forest area in 2018

Current policies projections revised upwardAdditional policies needed to achieve NDC target

NDC: -22% vs. baseline in 2030(unconditional)-26% vs. baseline in 2030(conditional)

Contact details:

Thank you for your attention!

www.newclimate.org

Takeshi [email protected]