Update on the labour market Andrew Damant - Labour Market Economist.

Update on the labour market

Andrew Damant - Labour Market Economist

Summary of content

• Latest labour market estimates for the UK

• Rise in part-time employment- Record number of people in part-time employment

• Focus on public sector employment- Job losses in the public sector- Public sector employment by region

• Graduates in the labour market- Increase in the number of graduates- Employment rates for graduates and non-graduates- Unemployment rates for graduates- Earnings by degree subject studied

Headlines

Labour market estimates

45kUnemployment

January to March 2012

2.63m

Employment 29.23m 105k

Inactivity 9.25m 35k

(compared to October to December 2011)

(18+) (Claimant count is for April 2012)

Claimant Count 1.59m 13.7k

Level Rate (%)

0.2 8.2

70.5

23.0 0.1

4.9 no change

(16+)

(Level 16+) ( Rate 16 to 64)

(16-64)

0.2

Focus on employment

Thousands

-30

0

30

60

90

120

Total Full-time Part-time

105,000

- 13,000

118,000Change on quarterRise in employment entirely driven by increase in part-time employment

Focus on part-time employment

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Thousands

7.99 million

Part-time employmentHighest number of part-time workers since comparable records began in 1992

Focus on part-time employment

0

4

8

12

16

20

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Per cent18.0 per cent

Part-time would like full-timeHighest percentage since comparable records began in 1992

Part-time employmentHighest number of part-time workers since comparable records began in 1992

Focus on public sector employment

Change on year (thousands) 2010 to 2011

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Total employment Public sector Private sector

- 44,000

- 270,000

226,000

Focus on government sectors

Central government

Local government

Total public corporations

47%

45%

8%

Percentage change on year (2010 to 2011)

-10

-5

0

5

10

Total publicsector

Centralgovernment

Localgovernment

Total publiccorporations

-4.3%

-1.2%

-7.1%-6.1%

Public sector employment by region

0 10 20 30

East of England

South East

London

East Midlands

South West

West Midlands

North West

Yorkshire & The Humber

Scotland

North East

Wales

Northern Ireland

Per cent

Wales25.8 per cent of total employment

South West19.8 per cent of total employment

South West36,000 fall in public sector employment in the last year

WalesDown 8,000 in the last year

Public sector employment by region

-60 -30 0 30 60

Northern Ireland

Wales

Yorkshire & The Humber

North East

East Midlands

Scotland

West Midlands

London

North West

East of England

South East

South West

Change on year (Thousands) 2010 to 2011

1.06m

1.50m

Number of graduates

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Thousands

2001 to 2011Increase of 41 per cent in the number of recent graduates

Recent graduatesThose who have graduated within 6 years of their survey interview, aged 21 to 64, and are not currently enrolled on a course

64%

36% 27%

73%

0

20

40

60

80

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Per cent

Types of jobs

Lower skill - Jobs generally require competence attained through compulsory education

Skill level of jobsHigher skill – Jobs generally require competence attained through post-compulsory education.

Lower skill

Higher skill

86%

72%

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Per cent

Graduates and non-graduates

GraduatesRecent graduates - higher employment rates up to the start of 2008 recession

Non-graduatesTend to have higher levels of inactivity and unemployment – older demographic

Recent graduates

All graduates

Non-graduates

0

10

20

30

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Per cent

Graduate unemployment

New graduatesHave the highest unemployment rates – just starting to look for work

Recession impactNew graduates affected most – starting to look for work when the economy was weak

0 to 2 years ago

2 to 4 years ago

4 to 6 years ago

All graduates - £15.18

Non graduates - £8.92

£21.29

£12.06

Earnings by degree subject

0 5 10 15 20 25

Arts

Humanities

Medical related subjects

Librarianship and languages

Biological and agricultural sciences

Social studies

Law

Education

Business

Medicine and dentistry

Physical or environmental sciences

Mathematical sciences, engineering, technology and architecture

£ per hour

Summary of key messages

• Some improvement in the labour market in recent months- But this has been driven by increases in part-time employment

• Big job losses in the public sector in the last year- Wales particularly reliant on public sector employment

• Rise in the number of graduates in the last 10 years- Fall in percentage in higher skill jobs- Unemployment rates lower for more experienced graduates – well below UK average – although new graduates are finding it difficult to find work following the recession- Science degrees tend to lead to higher pay – but average pay is higher for all degree subjects than average pay for non-graduates