Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Kurt Unger • CSES Climate Impacts Group • Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington • WA State Dept. of Climate science in the public interest
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Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Kurt Unger CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of.
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Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project
Alan F. HamletMarketa McGuire ElsnerKurt Unger
• CSES Climate Impacts Group• Department of Civil &
Environmental Engineering,University of Washington
• WA State Dept. of EcologyClimate science in the
public interest
The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project
This 3-year research project (now in the final stages of completion) is designed to provide a comprehensive suite of 21st century hydroclimatological scenarios for the Columbia River basin and coastal drainages in OR and WA.
Collaborative Partners:•WA State Dept. of Ecology (via HB 2860)•Bonneville Power Administration•Northwest Power and Conservation Council•Oregon Water Resources Department•BC Ministry of the Environment
297 Streamflow
Sites
• Provide a wide range of products to address multiple stakeholder needs
• Increase spatial and temporal resolution
• Provide a large ensemble of climate scenarios to assess uncertainties
• Address hydrologic extremes (e.g. Q100 and 7Q10)
Project Goals and Objectives
CBCCSP Research Team
Lara Whitely BinderPablo CarrascoJeff DeemsMarketa McGuire ElsnerAlan F. HamletCarrie LeeSe-Yeun LeeDennis P. LettenmaierJeremy LittellGuillaume MaugerNate MantuaEd MilesKristian MickelsonPhilip W. MoteRob NorheimErin RogersEric SalathéAmy SnoverIngrid TohverAndy Wood
Changing Watershed Classifications:Transformation From Snow to Rain
* Based on Composite Delta Method scenarios (multimodel average change in T & P)
Map: Rob Norheim
Snowmelt-Dominant Basins:
Snake River at Milner
SWE Streamflow
Changes in Hydrologic Extremes
2040s Changes in Natural Flood RiskBoise River at Boise
A1B B1
Historical10 Member Ensemble Using the Hybrid Delta Downscaling Approach
Study results (which currently are in final form) are already being used and evaluated by a wide range of stakeholders including:•USGS•WA Dept of Ecology/WSU (HB 2860)•Bonneville Power Administration•U.S. Bureau of Reclamation•U.S. Army Corps of Engineers•U.S. Forest Service•U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service•Boise Aquatic Research Laboratory•National Marine Fisheries Science Center
Who’s Using the Data?
Project Extensions
Extended Products for the Western U.S.
The approach has been extended to additional western US watersheds in partnership with:
•US Forest Service•US Fish and Wildlife Service•Boise Aquatic Sciences Lab•Trout Unlimited
Regional Climate Modeling at CIG WRF Model (NOAH LSM) 36 to 12 km
ECHAM5 forcing
CCSM3 forcing (A1B and A2 scenarios)
HadRM 25 km HadCM3 forcing
Extreme Precipitation from RCM Simulations
Change from 1970-2000 to 2030-2060 in the percentage of total precipitation occurring when daily precipitation exceeds the 20th century 95th percentile
larger increase on windward slopes of Cascades, Columbia basinsmall increase or decrease along Cascade crest