Unmc science cafe talk

Climate Change & Food Security

From Science to Action

“The greenhouse effect has been detected, and it is changing our climate now.”

The Convergence of Climate Science and Political Science

NASA scientist James Hansen’s June 24, 1988 Testimony before the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee

• Hotter temperatures were melting the icecaps and glaciers, raising sea levels.

• Weather events were becoming more extreme, with bigger and more deadly hurricanes, tornadoes and floods.

• Heat waves, droughts and wildfires were increasing in frequency and lasting longer.

Climate change could lead to global food crisisAssociated Press 4/10/2008

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Scientists warned Thursday thatclimate change in coming decades will cause more floods in theNorthern Hemisphere and droughts in the south and in arid areas, which may lead to a global food crisis.

Areas that will suffer water shortages include the Mediterranean Sea basin, the western U.S., parts of southern Africa and northeastern Brazil.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change chairman Rajendra Pachauri said at the end of a meeting in Budapest that the rising frequency and intensity of floods and droughts could lead to a food crisis.

‘Food Security’ “Food security exists when all people, at all

times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”

World Food Summit, 1996 United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization

“Throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to… further erode food security, prolong existing and create new poverty traps — particularly in urban areas and emerging hot spots of hunger… All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change, including food access, utilization and price stability.” Climate Change 2014:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

“Climate disruptions to agricultural production have increased in the past 40 years and are projected to increase over the next 25 years. By mid-century and beyond, these impacts will be increasingly negative on most crops and livestock.” May 2014

University of Nebraska-Lincoln September 2014

“Under both low and high emissions scenarios, the number of high temperature stress days over 100°F is projected to increase substantially in Nebraska and the Great Plains region. By mid century (2041‐ ‐2070), this increase for Nebraska would equate to experiencing typical summer temperatures equivalent to those experienced during the 2012 drought and heat wave… which was the driest and hottest year for the state based on the climatological record going back to 1895.”

UNL Today Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Researchers show climate change is suppressing soybean yields

Climate change cost American soybean farmers an estimated $11 billion in unrealized potential yield in the past two decades, a newly published study says.

A research team that includes UNL's James Specht, emeritus professor of agronomy and horticulture, has reported that climate change is affecting soybean yields.

“Climate change will contribute to food and water scarcity, will increase the spread of disease, and may spur or exacerbate mass migration.” Department of Defense 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review

“Climate change will bring hotter temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and more frequent natural disasters. These effects could slow the growth of food production by 2 percent each decade for the rest of the century. Farmers everywhere will be affected … If these challenges are not addressed, consumers will need to be prepared for higher food prices and potential food shortages.”

Advancing Global Food Security in the Face of a Changing Climate, May 2014

Doug BereuterMember of Congress,Nebraska (1979-2004)

Co-Chair, Global Agricultural Development Initiative,

Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Henry PaulsonGeorge W. Bush’s Treasury Secretary & Co-Chair, Risky Business Project

George ShultzRonald Reagan’s Secretary of State & Risky BusinessCommittee Member

“Our research shows that under the ‘business as usual’ scenario and assuming no significant adaptation by farmers… the Midwest region as a whole faces likely yield declines of up to 19% by mid-century and 63% by the end of the century.”Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States, June 2014

“Over the next 5 to 25 years, without signifi- cant adaptation by farmers, some counties

in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana will likely see average commodity crop losses up to

18 to 24% due to extreme heat each year.”

January 2015

“The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies and governance institutions around the world. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability and social tensions – conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence.” Department of Defense 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review

"Among the future trends that will impact our national security is climate change. Rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty and conflict. They will likely lead to food and water shortages, pandemic disease, disputes over refugees and resources, and destruction by natural disasters in regions across the globe.”

Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel October 13, 2014 “Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap”

“The changing climate is already serving as a catalyst for conflict. Consider, for example, the severe drought in the years leading up to the civil war in Syria. The drought didn’t cause the war, but it certainly served as a destabilizing factor.

Struggles for control of food, water and energy supplies escalate tensions between ethnic groups, religious groups and nations. And as we’re seeing in Iraq, ancient tensions can flare up into deadly conflict.”July 6, 2014

Rear Admiral David Titley (ret.) Former “Oceanographer” and “Navigator” of the U.S. Navy, Fellow of the American

Meteorological Society & member of the CNA Military Advisory Board. He spoke at UNL October 30, 2014

Yeah, but… That’s the ‘Developing World.’

Surely, such a thing couldn’t happen here.

Could it ?

Lord Cameron of Dillington

Member, BritishHouse of Lords

NINE MEALS FROM

ANARCHY

‘Just in time

delivery’

“There will be rats, mayhem and maybe even murder.”

Lord Cameron

Four Things Anyone Who Likes to Eat Should Know about Our Food Supply...

The average bite of food on our plate travels 1,346 miles to get there.

“U.S. Agriculture: Potential Vulnerabilities.” Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, CA. Prepared for: Office of Civil Defense, Office of the Secretary of the Army, January 1969

“Because about one-fifth of all food consumed in the U.S. is imported, our food supply and security can be significantly affected by climate variations and changes in other parts of the world. The import share has increased over the last two decades, and the U.S. now imports 13% of grains, 20% of vegetables (much higher in winter months), almost 40% of fruit, 85% of fish and shellfish, and almost all tropical products such as coffee, tea, and bananas. Climate extremes in regions that supply these products to the U.S. can cause sharp reductions in production and increases in prices.” 2014 National Climate Assessment

90 percent of the $4.4 billion Nebraskans annually spend on food leaves the state…

California Central Valley

The California Central Valley is the source of 70% of all the lettuce consumed in the U.S.

U.S. Drought Monitor

Map of California - January 27, 2015

D0 - Abnormally Dry D1 - Moderate Drought D2 - Severe Drought D3 - Extreme Drought D4 - Exceptional Drought

The brown-colored area is the worst condition of“Exceptional Drought”The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC-UNL.

The largest irrigated crop in America is the lawn.

According to NASA, there are three times more acres of lawns in the U.S. than irrigated corn — enough to cover the entire state of Ohio.

The Moral:

The farther away we are from our food supply, the more food insecure we are.

The Food Security Question of the Day:

Why do those of us who live in the city always plant things that we can’t eat?

Home, Sweet Home (circa 1990)

… The ‘Work-in-Progress’ (as of February 2013)

…and as of September 2014

Our Lawn-free Front Yard with Bee-friendly, Drought-tolerant Perennials

Growing Food for Bees and People in the Public Right-of-Way

Looking for the ‘Huh’ Factor ( *Notice all the lawns up the block… )

What the Neighbors have to look at…

* Note the roof-top Solar Panels

The Movie Stars

As featured on NET’s “Backyard Farmer”

Plat map for ‘The Hamlet’ – our city block bounded by 25 th & 26th Streets and ‘T’ & ‘U’ Streets in the Hawley Neighborhood Historic District near Downtown Lincoln (photo taken 2010)

Aerial photo of ‘The Hamlet’ city block (photo taken 2011)

Potatoes growing in the ‘Hell Strip’

United Nations: “Of the 100 crop species that provide 90 percent of the world’s food, over 70 are pollinated by bees.”

A panoramic view of part of The Hamlet’s half-acre neighborhood garden & orchard in the interior of the block (photo taken July 2012)

Summer

FALL

Plat map for ‘The Hamlet’ – our city block bounded by 25 th & 26th Streets and ‘T’ & ‘U’ Streets in the Hawley Neighborhood Historic District near Downtown Lincoln (photo taken 2010)

The Winter Garden

The Urban Gardener’s GoalTo put something home-grown on the table every day — whether it’s fresh, stored, canned, fermented, dried or frozen.

In an urban environment, ‘self-sufficiency’ will never be an option. There’s no room in town for fields of corn and wheat and we can’t keep the animals we need for dairy and meat.

But even at the city block level, we can be growing fresh greens year-round, preserving our garden harvest, and keeping bees and a couple of chickens for eggs.

We’ll be making more efficient and responsible use of available resources, getting plenty of exercise and giving ourselves a daily reminder of how that food got on the table.

Locavore: One who eats foods grown locally whenever possible, generally within 50-100 miles of home.

Locavores connect more closely with their food sources by supporting local farmers and businesses — relishing in the pleasure of eating fresher, more nutritious foods while reducing the carbon footprint of food production, packaging and transportation.

Omaha Local Foodshed

Lincoln Local Foodshed

Nebraska Regional Foodshed

Photo Credits & Media Coverage• Jean Lewis, JeanLewisPhotography.net• Doug Boyd, Lincoln Green by Design• Jacob Hannah, Lincoln Journal Star• Jeff Nelson, Hamlet neighbor• Gina Egenberger, Lincoln Lancaster County Health Department• Susan Alleman, Facebook Page administrator

Backyard Farmer: “Growing Your Own Food”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aU0EpplTtT4

Backyard Farmer: “Urban Chickens”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mg63teQDB_0

City of Lincoln The Urban Page: “The Community & Garden Effect”http://www.lincoln.ne.gov/city/urban/reports/pdf/urbanpg/v17i2s13.pdf

Mother Earth News: “How We Created a ‘Homestead Hamlet’”http://www.motherearthnews.com/homesteading-and-livestock/neighborhood-gardens-

zm0z14amzsor.aspx?PageId=1#axzz2wAEjBrlF

TEDxLincoln: “Growing Food, Growing Community – The Example of the Hawley Hamlet” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0Gqp9tYpF8

Hawley Hamlet Food Production Estimates An acre is 43,560 square feet – about 91% of a football field (excluding the end zones and counting just the 100 yards of the field, from sideline to sideline). The Hawley Hamlet has approximately 31,000 square feet of growing space (roughly 70% of an acre – or 65 yards of a football field).  Assume half of that 31,000 square feet (15,500) is footpaths, which leaves 15,500 square feet of actual growing area. Further assume the metric that, in general, you can harvest half a pound of food per square foot: 15,500 square feet x .5 lbs, and you end up with 7750 pounds of harvested produce annually. According to the USDA, the average American eats 2,000 pounds of food a year, with vegetables and fruits comprising anywhere from 10-30% of that total (200-600 pounds). Assuming the lower 10% figure of 200 pounds (which excludes supposed vegetable items like potato chips, French fries and tortilla chips), the 7750 pounds of produce the 20 households in the Hawley Hamlet are growing (if stored, frozen, canned and dried) would be sufficient to meet the dietary vegetable and fruit needs of all 38 people who live there.