8/2/2014 The Engineers Journal | The Engineers Journal http://www.engineersjournal.ie/unlocking-schedulers-dilemma/ 1/3 Unlocking the scheduler’s dilemma in manufacturing Yogi Berra, the great American baseball coach, when pressed on how his team would perform in the coming season, replied, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Berra’s experiences in the challenging world of baseball may have led him to err on the cautious side, but since time immemorial, there have been many pundits and oracles all too willing to take the great leap and offer predictions on our futures. The evidence can be seen all around us with a constant sprinkling of sporting, political, economic and weather forecasts, to name a few. Depending on your point of view, some of these fields of work have in fact delivered greater levels of predictive accuracy as technology continues to advance to better manage and control data. We know all too well the complete and catastrophic failure of our political and financial institutions to predict the recent economic downturn. On the other hand, progress in the accuracy of weather forecasts has been steady as computer power has improved exponentially over recent decades. Generally, however, it remains a minefield. As the management guru Peter Drucker explains, to predict the future is “like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window”. That may be so, but performances of business teams in many organisations depends precisely on making accurate predictions and this sometimes governs their very existence. Visualising the future and then providing prescriptions for the public domain can take on many connotations, but the making of forecasts or predictions are actually institutionalised into the way businesses operate and reach decisions. In particular, many organisations rely on the ritual of the annual sales forecast for the coming year to drive plans and budgets on the supply side such as procurement, engineering and human resources. FORECASTING AND SCHEDULING How the sales team derives the figures, the formulas it uses and how it measures their accuracy are topics for regular discussion in board meetings. Forecasts from the customer, economic conditions, product lifecycles and historical trends are just some of the variables thrown into the mix. But, as complexity continues to grow in the global marketplace, the best-laid-schemes oft go awry. Depending on the distance from target can cause major problems in the planning of resources for the coming year. Production schedulers who operate wholly-computer based MRP (manufacturing resource planning) systems to meet sales forecasts know well the problems if they are not converted accurately into solid work orders. The MRP ‘push system’, which is based Many engineering and manufacturing organisations under-perform as a result of poor scheduling. David Harkin addresses the key issues and offers solutions from Lean principles and constraint management Mech 31st July 2014 | 0 Read It Later
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8/2/2014 The Engineers Journal | The Engineers Journal
Yogi Berra, the great American baseball coach, when pressed on how his team would
perform in the coming season, replied, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about
the future.” Berra’s experiences in the challenging world of baseball may have led him to
err on the cautious side, but since time immemorial, there have been many pundits and
oracles all too willing to take the great leap and offer predictions on our futures.
The evidence can be seen all around us with a constant sprinkling of sporting, political,
economic and weather forecasts, to name a few. Depending on your point of view, some
of these fields of work have in fact delivered greater levels of predictive accuracy as
technology continues to advance to better manage and control data.
We know all too well the complete and catastrophic failure of our political and financial
institutions to predict the recent economic downturn. On the other hand, progress in the
accuracy of weather forecasts has been steady as computer power has improved
exponentially over recent decades. Generally, however, it remains a minefield. As the
management guru Peter Drucker explains, to predict the future is “like trying to drive
down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window”.
That may be so, but performances of business teams in many organisations depends
precisely on making accurate predictions and this sometimes governs their very
existence. Visualising the future and then providing prescriptions for the public domain
can take on many connotations, but the making of forecasts or predictions are actually
institutionalised into the way businesses operate and reach decisions. In particular, many
organisations rely on the ritual of the annual sales forecast for the coming year to drive
plans and budgets on the supply side such as procurement, engineering and human
resources.
FORECASTING AND SCHEDULING
How the sales team derives the figures, the formulas it uses and how it measures their
accuracy are topics for regular discussion in board meetings. Forecasts from the
customer, economic conditions, product lifecycles and historical trends are just some of
the variables thrown into the mix. But, as complexity continues to grow in the global
marketplace, the best-laid-schemes oft go awry. Depending on the distance from target
can cause major problems in the planning of resources for the coming year.
Production schedulers who operate wholly-computer based MRP (manufacturing
resource planning) systems to meet sales forecasts know well the problems if they are
not converted accurately into solid work orders. The MRP ‘push system’, which is based
Many engineeringand manufacturingorganisationsunder-perform as aresult of poorscheduling. DavidHarkin addressesthe key issues andoffers solutionsfrom Leanprinciples andconstraintmanagement