University of Notre Dame•Goal: Your team takes a scientific approach to apply course methods and content to address an issue in one of your companies •5-page report summarizing

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University of Notre Dame

EMBA 60616

Leadership and Decision-Making

Timothy A. Judge

South Bend – Cincinnati EMBA Program July19, 2012 (1230 PM – 300 PM)

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1. Introduction and Goals

2. Ways of Knowing

3. Understanding Yourself and

Others

CLASS #1

Course materials are posted on website:

www.timothy-judge.com

http://www.timothy-judge.com/



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1. July 19 Understanding Yourself and Others

2. July 20 Individual Decision-Making

3. July 21 AM Group Decision-Making

3. July 21 PM Group Decision-Making (cont.)

4. August 11 AM Making Decisions About People…

4. August 11 PM And Motivating Them

5. August 30 Leadership

6. Sept 1 Leading the Dark Side

7. Sept 28 In-Class Essay

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Today‘s Schedule

12:30-1:00 Introductions, goals, requirements

1:00-1:30 Ways of knowing

1:30-1:35 Team Extra Credit Exercise

1:35-1:40 Action Research Project Discussion

1:40-2:10 Understanding yourself and others

2:10-2:30 Exercise: Values Rummy

2:30-2:55 Understanding (and Feedback Reports)

2:55-3:00 Exercise: Retirement Party Visualization

Timing is flexible—we will often run behind!

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Class #1

Section 1

Introduction, Goals,

and Requirements

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Course Requirements Grades

Class Participation 20%

Final In-Class Essay 20%

Personal Development Plan 15%

Action Research Report 15%

Reflections Paper 15%

Collecting No‘s Assignment 10%

Graded Exercise 5%

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Course Requirements Significant Dates

July 21 Due: Extra Credit Assignment

July 27 Due: Action Research Project Outline

August 11 Due: Action Research Project

August 30 Due: Collecting No‘s Assignment

Sept. 1 Due: PDP; Graded Exercise (in class)

Sept. 8 Due: Reflections Paper

Sept. 28 Due: Final Essay (in class)

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• Participation grade is based on:

– Attendance

– Completing exercises, surveys

– Active engagement participation during class

exercises and discussions

• Please, except in urgent situations and

during breaks, laptop lids down and

smartphones/tablets off

Course Requirements Class Participation – 20%

• September 28, 8:00AM-10:30AM

• 4 essay questions

– 2 mostly conceptual

– 2 mostly application

– Use blue books

– Draw in both course concepts and personal

experiences

9

Course Requirements Final In-Class Essay – 20%

10

• Goal: Develop a plan for putting course

content and feedback to work

• You will be asked to prepare a write-up

based on reports and interviews so as to

develop a specific improvement plan based

on your learned weaknesses and strengths

• For instructions, see website or handout

• Due September 1

Course Requirements Personal Development Plan – 15%

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• Goal: Your team takes a scientific approach

to apply course methods and content to

address an issue in one of your companies

• 5-page report summarizing the problem and

the team‘s collective response


• Due August 11(so get started now)

– I will give you 30 min. Sat. to get started

– Outline due Friday, July 27

Course Requirements Action Research Project – 15%

• Assignment is due September 8, so should be

well underway by Class #4

– Sources: feedback reports, readings, class

experiences, PDP

– This is ―culminating‖ assignment to integrate

what you‘ve learned with your competencies

– Write up: 10 single-spaced pages

• See instructions handed out in this class

• Depth of responses significant part of grade,

which requires advance thought

12

Course Requirements Reflections Paper – 15%

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• Goal: Learn strategies for making successful

requests of others through a real-life

exercise

• Brief (3 single-spaced pages) write-up

addressing several questions contained in

the assignment


• Due August 30

Course Requirements Collecting No’s Assignment – 10%

14

• Goal: Practice decision-making/problem-

solving skills in ―high stakes‖ context

• On September 1you will be paired

with/against a randomly-selected classmate

• For details, see course website

• Grade for this exercise will depend solely

on the points obtained during the exercise

Course Requirements Graded Exercise – 5%

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• Understand the elements of good decision-

making, effective leading, and effective

management

• Use a scientific approach to managing

– Our standard approach to making decisions is

flawed—why, and how can we improve?

• Perhaps the central goal is to provide you

with tools and insights so as to better

understand yourself and others

Course Requirements Goals of Course

1. What is most important to learn?

2. How can we best learn it?

• This course will require very little

memorization, yet there are 16 precepts I

want burned on your cognitive screen

– Begin to consider the outcome at stake here

…What‘s the end goal?

Course Overview Two Models of Management Skills

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• At this point, we can begin to put things

together

– What leadership and decision-making skills do

we need? (MODEL 1)

– How can we best enhance skills? (MODEL 2)

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Course Overview Two Models of Management Skills

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Understanding

YOURSELF Do you know yourself? Do

others know you?

• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Understanding

OTHERS Do you understand others? Do

others understand you?

• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Deciding/Solving

YOURSELF What decisions do you make?

How do you analyze and solve

problems?

How can you better understand:

• Analytical tools to objectively

evaluate decisions?

• Limits of rational decision-

making?

• Cognitive biases so as to

avoid “blind spots”?

Managing/Leading

OTHERS • How do you lead and follow?

• Are there effective methods

and models of leadership from

which you can learn?

• How well do you understand

the dark side of power and

influence?

Making Decisions

ABOUT OTHERS • How can you make more

effective hiring decisions?

• How can you evaluating

those decisions more

effectively?

FUNDAMENTAL APPLIED

INNER

PRIVATE

SELF

Animus

OUTER

PUBLIC

SELF

Persona

Living Well

YOURSELF • Can you formulate a plan to

improve your ability to live a

happy and productive life?

Contributing to

ORGANIZATION • Do you leverage your skills

effectively?

• How do you cooperate and

conflict with others?

Motivating

OTHERS • Do you use the most effective

means of motivating others?

• Are there ways to improve

your motivations?

MODEL 1: Model of Effectiveness We Will Follow Throughout Course

Deciding/Solving

WITH OTHERS • How can you better under-

stand -- and thus resist where appropriate -- group pressure –

for conformity?

• How do you decide in group?

• How do you make the most of

your group’s resources?

Do you achieve synergy?

MODEL 2: Process (How) Learning Model We Will Follow

ABSTR

AC

T

CO

NC

RET

E ACTIVE PASSIVE

Experience (in/out class)

Exercises

PDP (Personal Development Plan)

Reflections paper

Case studies

Readings

Reflections paper

Final In-Class Essay

Collecting No‘s

Action research project Class participation

Exercises Readings

PDP Exercises

Case studies Collecting No‘s

Collecting No‘s

LAISSEZ

FAIRE DO

ING

OBSER

VIN

G FEELING

THINKING

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• Most of what we‘ll acquire will be from

taking a few concepts and ―working them‖

– Class discussions

– Case discussions

– Exercises

– Feedback

– Application-oriented assignments

• Because of this research-to-application

focus, timing is not everything

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Learning Objectives The Method to Our Madness

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Class #1

Section 2

Ways of Knowing

22

Understanding


others know you?

• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Understanding



• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Managing/Leading







influence?

Making Decisions





effectively?

FUNDAMENTAL APPLIED

INNER

PRIVATE

SELF

Animus

OUTER

PUBLIC

SELF

Persona

Living Well




Contributing to


effectively?



Motivating




your motivations?


Deciding/Solving



problems?



evaluate decisions?


making?



Deciding/Solving



problems?



evaluate decisions?


making?



Deciding/Solving



problems?



evaluate decisions?


making?



Deciding/Solving



for conformity?





23

Learning How to

Better Decide, Manage,

and Lead

Effectiveness!

Understanding

Yourself

Understanding

Others

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Importance of Behavioral Skills Manager’s Challenge

• At the same time that a manager is held

―accountable‖ by his/her leaders for results,

the manager is ―dependent‖ on the efforts

of others to make these results possible

– The dual pressure of the hard (numbers and

outcomes) and the soft (behavioral skills and

processes) are not always congruent and almost

always difficult

– But as we have learned, the hard and soft have

permeable boundaries

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Is It Just Intuition?

• Intuition is important, but it must be informed

– Why make decisions about people in a manner

any different from other applications?

Whenever I‘ve taken risks, it‘s been after satisfying

myself that the research and the market studies

supported my instincts. I may act on my intuition--but

only if my hunches are supported by the facts.

– Lee Iacocca

– Good methods = inoculation against fads

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Ways of Knowing What Are Research Methods?

• Research methods describe the processes

used to produce scientific understanding

• Today‘s overview

– Usefulness of, and barriers to, scientific method

– Overview of scientific process

– Criteria for inferring cause

» Covariation

» Experimental design

– Process of generalizing

– Application

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• The problem of induction based on

experience

– Problem of observation: All swans are white

– Problem of inference: Challenger/Columbia

– Problem of observation and inference: Housing

bubble and financial markets crash

• Induction is useful, but needs also to be

accompanied with theories and evidence

that go beyond one‘s perceived experience

Why Study Research Methods?

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Ways of Knowing

Intuition Authority Hope and Faith

Personal

Experience Rationalism

Scientific

Method

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The Purposes of Science

Explanation Control

Description Prediction

Four Key Objectives of Science

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Scientific approach is used to study Human

Resources

There are issues with quantifying and

predicting human behavior, but objective

studies provide proofs which can yield

organizational improvements when applied

Statistical analysis is key

See handout ―Measurement and Statistical

Issues in Human Resource Management‖ (also

on website)

Statistical Methodology

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Criteria for Inferring Cause

Selection Threat History Threat Faulty Design

Eliminate Alternative Explanations

Covariation

Test of Mean Difference Correlation Coefficient

Temporal Precedence

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Covariation Differences in Means

SEX

Number

Mean

Standard

Deviation

Probability

0=Female

53

3.51

0.60

0.45

1=Male

225

3.44

0.57

Question: ―Do men and women in our company differ in

their commitment to their careers?‖

Answer...

Career Commitment

654321

Org

an

iza

tion

al C

om

mitm

en

t

5 .0

4 .5

4 .0

3 .5

3 .0

2 .5

2 .0

1 .5

Covariation Strong Correlation (r=+.53)

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Hours Worked Per Week

100806040200

Car

eer C

omm

itmen

t

6

5

4

3

2

1

Covariation Moderate Correlation (r=+.22)

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Age

706050403020

Hou

rs W

orke

d P

er W

eek

100

80

60

40

20

0

Covariation Weak Correlation (r=+.08)

35

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Correlations and Causation

• Though correlation is a powerful tool, it is

important to remember that it doesn‘t prove

causation

• Correlations can be improperly interpreted

due to

– Spurious correlation (omitted variable)

– Reverse causality

• More on this later

37

The Judge Model Processes Underlying Effective Management

Intuition/

Insight

Systematic

Approach

Experience/

Observation

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Team Extra Credit Exercise Research Approach in Everyday Life

• How can you help organization evaluate

effectiveness

Overall job satisfaction

Management performance

Correlations between personality traits and job

satisfaction or job performance

• Assignment totally optional, but may help

you with Action Research Project

Credit: 1% of grade for team

Due: Saturday (write up answering questions)

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Course Requirements Significant Dates

July 21 Due: Extra Credit Assignment

July 27 Due: Action Research Project Outline

August 11 Due: Action Research Project

August 30 Due: Collecting No‘s Assignment

Sept. 1 Due: PDP; Graded Exercise (in class)

Sept. 8 Due: Reflections Paper

Sept. 28 Due: Final Essay (in class)

40

Class #1

Section 3

Knowing Yourself (and Others)

41

Understanding


others know you?

• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Understanding



• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Deciding/Solving



problems?



evaluate decisions?


making?



Managing/Leading







influence?

Making Decisions





effectively?

FUNDAMENTAL APPLIED

INNER

PRIVATE

SELF

Animus

OUTER

PUBLIC

SELF

Persona

Living Well




Contributing to


effectively?



Motivating




your motivations?


Understanding


others know you?

• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Understanding



• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Deciding/Solving



for conformity?





42

43

Outline Knowing Yourself

• Nature v. nurture as causes of who we are

– Behavioral genetics primer

– Evidence: nature v. nurture

– Personality

• Structure of personality—Big Five

– Big Five traits

– Meaning, implications, and importance of traits

• Your personality

– Your personality profile

– Who we are and if/how we can change

44

Knowing Yourself Nature v. Nurture

• One of the central ways we can learn more

about ourselves—and others—is to learn about

the general causes of behavior

Are we a product of our environment, or are

we a product of our genes?

• This is an age-old question, but in the past 20

years, a tremendous amount of scientific

evidence has accumulated

45

• Socially desirable behaviors

Diet/weight

Exercise/fitness

• Socially undesirable behaviors

Drug use

Smoking

Effects of Environment Comparison of Heredity v. Environment

46 46

Heritability

of Body

Mass Index

(BMI)

Shared

genes

Shared

environment

Non-shared

environment

M F M F M F

Hjelmborg et

al. (2008)

10,556 Finn twins

80% 82% 7% 4% 13% 14%

Hur (2007)

888 Korean twins

82% 87% 0% 0% 18% 13%

Schousbo et al.

(2004)

624 Danish twins

65% 61% 5% 8% 30% 31%

Environment Genes and Body Mass Index (BMI)

47 47

Sample Genes Environment Unique

Australia (males) 22.9 20.6 56.6

Australia (females) 31.1 16.4 52.5

Denmark (males) 44.4 4.7 51.0

Denmark (females) 50.1 3.1 46.8

Finland (males) 55.8 6.2 38.0

Finland (females) 61.0 0.0 39.0

Netherlands (males) 68.1 2.7 29.2

Netherlands (females) 50.3 13.3 36.5

Norway (males) 33.6 31.1 35.4

Norway (females) 56.6 0.0 43.4

Sweden (males) 63.9 0.0 36.1

UK (females) 70.5 0.0 29.5

MEAN 51.4 7.5 41.1

Environment Behavioral Genetics Study of Exercise

48

Drug Shared

genes

Shared

environment

Non-shared

environment

Any 77% 0% 23%

Cannabis 76% 0% 24%

Stimulants 76% 0% 24%

Psychedelics 81% 0% 19%

Opiates 44% 33% 23%

Cocaine 44% 13% 43%

Mean 66% 8% 26%

Source: Kendler et al. (2006) study of 1,386 Norwegian twin pairs

Environment Drug Use

49

Study Shared

Genes

Shared

environment

Non-shared

environment

659 American

male twins 64% 19% 17%

434 American

female twins 77% 0% 23%

1063 Australian


851 American


1979 Australian


Environment Smoking

50

• Relative to differences in genes, differences

in environment appear to play a minor role

in variability in socially desirable (weight,

exercise, altruism, etc.) and undesirable

(drug use, criminality, infidelity) behaviors

• What are the implications for managing?

Nature v. Nurture: Summary

51

• Why are genes so important to behavior?

• The effect of genes on behavior is

expressed through inherited traits

– Intelligence

– Physiological and neuropsychological

processes (e.g., neurotransmitters: serotonin,

adrenalin, dopamine)

– Personality (of course related to above)

Nature v. Nurture: What Does It All Mean?

52

Personality Definition

• A relatively stable set of traits that

determine an individual‘s adjustment to

his/her environment

• Personality is relatively stable in the short-

term, but it does change

• Why measure personality?

– In order to become more effective leaders,

managers, and people, we must first

understand ourselves – and understand others

(what makes others ‗tick‘)

53

Structure of Personality

• Research suggests there are five main

aspects of our personalities

– Explains 75% of variability in personality

• This structure is called ―Big Five‖ or ―five-

factor model‖

– 40-60% heritable; very small (5%) environment

54

Neuroticism (emotional adjustment)

– anxious/stressed, depressed/moody

Extraversion

– sociable, dominant, positive emotions

Openness to experience

– creative, perceptive, intellectual, and flexible

Agreeableness

– kind, gentle, trusting, and cooperative

Conscientiousness

– achievement, dependable, orderly, disciplined

Big Five Traits Brief Adjectival Definitions

55

Values Rummy Instructions

Break into 5 groups of 5-7 people.

Appoint a dealer. The dealer will deal six cards to each group member

(face down). The dealer will then put the remaining cards face down and

turn one over to start the discard pile.

Object of the game: End up with the cards that best represent your values.

The person to the left of the dealer can either take the top card in the

discard pile or choose a card from the deck. Once a card is chosen, either

that card or one from the hand should be discarded into the discard pile.

The person to the left of this person then plays, and so on, until each person

has played six times.

A wild card can be any value you want it to be; you may only have one

wild card in your hand.

You cannot pick through the discard pile; only the top card may be chosen.

At the end of six rounds, take out a sheet of paper and write the values in

your hand.

56

• Do the values you wrote down reasonably

represent your values?

– Why or why not?

• What was the purpose of the game?

Values Rummy Purpose of Game

57

EMBA 60616:

Leadership and Decision-Making Fall 2012

Personality Feedback Reports

Big Five Traits

Timothy Judge

Professor Timothy A. Judge July 19, 2012

58

• BFI is one of the—if not the—most widely

used measures of the Big Five traits

• Scores range from 1=very low to 5=very

high

• Scores are normed for class and population

– Your score is standardized meaning that: 0 = average relative to norm

+100 = one standard deviation above norm

-100 = one standard deviation below norm

Big Five Inventory

59

Big Five Inventory

Raw

Score

Popul-

ation

Norm

2011

EMBA

Norm

This

Class

Norm

Extraversion 2.88 -41.58 -100.04 -88.74

Agreeableness 3.56 -39.53 -39.75 -31.61

Conscientiousness 4.56 116.53 108.49 137.79

Neuroticism 2.75 -44.24 22.14 9.51

Openness 4.50 87.62 127.12 123.32

59

60

• Mini-markers is one of the original measures

of the Big Five traits

– Originally, reduced more than 10,000

adjectives to Big Five core

• Range: 1=very low to 9=very high

• Scores are normed for class and population

– Your score is standardized meaning that: 0 = average relative to norm

+100 = one standard deviation above norm

-100 = one standard deviation below norm

Big Five Mini-Markers

61

Big Five Mini-Markers

Raw Score

Popul-ation Norm

2011 EMBA Norm

2012 EMBA Norm

Extraversion 5.38 -31.41 -87.33 -63.04

Agreeableness 6.25 -102.56 -50.16 -41.59

Conscientiousness 6.63 11.49 48.24 -58.76

Neuroticism 4.50 -68.07 50.07 34.09

Openness 7.25 59.36 46.62 44.76

61

62

Other Reports

Big Five Inventory Big Five Mini-Markers

Raw

Score

Popul-

ation

Norm

EMBA

2011

Norm

EMBA

2012

Norm

Raw

Score

Popul-

ation

Norm

EMBA

2011

Norm

EMBA

2012

Norm

Extraversion 3.13 -107.86 -119.85 -80.19 5.03 -90.90 -165.05 -129.05

Agreeableness 3.50 -30.11 -116.27 -84.65 6.69 -10.10 -67.80 -42.16

Conscientiousness 4.86 115.51 98.28 120.41 8.38 178.64 63.23 82.00

Neuroticism 2.31 -41.48 27.88 13.77 3.31 -163.64 21.05 -01.05

Openness 4.78 190.13 183.26 178.86 8.06 144.75 102.30 112.30

63

Self-Peer Agreement

.01

.41

.26.24

.31.31

.52

.45

.31

.56

.00

.10

.20

.30

.40

.50

.60

Neu

rotic

ism

Extrav

ersio

n

Ope

nnes

s

Agree

ablene

ss

Conscientiousne

ss

Strangers Well-acquainted peers

Source: Watson (1989)

64

Self-Other Agreement Class Data

EMBA 2011 EMBA 2012

BFI Mini-

Markers BFI

Mini-

Markers

Extraversion .60 .59 .56 .60

Agreeableness .35 .26 .43 .33

Conscientiousness .16 .22 .03 .27

Neuroticism .27 .03 .42 .19

Openness .34 .28 .50 .22

Class self-other agreement lower than is typical. Why?

65

Big Five Inventory Class v. Population Averages

66

Big Five Mini-Markers Class v. Population Averages

67

Self v. Other Averages Compared

68


69


70

Interpretations

• Class scores relative to population

– Above population averages on extraversion,

conscientiousness

– Below population averages on neuroticism and

agreeableness

– Why the differences?

• Other ratings are consistently more

favorable than self-ratings

– When comparing self–other ratings, how closely

are they aligned? What might explain the

discrepancies?

71

Returning to Your Personality Results How to Use

• Surveys are among the most widely used

and well validated measure--and the most

accepted structure--of personality

• But, no measure is perfect

– Ideally, would average measures across sources

(done for most of you) and over time

• Do these help you understand yourself

better? How you are perceived by others?

– Implications?

– Relevant for Personal Development Plan

72

Next Class

• ―Alex Sander‖ case response discussion

• Retirement Party exercise response

discussion

• Individual Decision-Making

• To Do List before tomorrow

– Read textbook chapters 4, 6

– Read Alex Sander case and answer questions

– Complete Retirement Party form

– Read through your personality report

University of Notre Dame•Goal: Your team takes a scientific approach to apply course methods and content to address an issue in one of your companies •5-page report summarizing

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