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University of Groningen
Local population decline in rural North-NetherlandsElshof, Hans
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1.
Introduction
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1.1 Motivation
In 2008 it was announced that 57 houses were about to be demolished in the
rural village of Ganzedijk, The Netherlands. This meant that most of the
houses in this village in the far Northeast of the Netherlands would
disappear; an unprecedented situation in a country that had been enveloped
in finding solutions for an ever-expanding population since WWII. The news
attracted much media attention and, although the housing that was about to
be demolished was eventually refurbished, brought the topic of population
decline to the forefront in the Netherlands. In other European regions
population decline had already been the reality for several decades (e.g.,
Amcoff 2006, Cawley 1994, Gauthier 1993, Muilu & Rusanen 2003, Spengler
1979). Now there were apparently also regions in the Netherlands that were
facing depopulation.
That the population of several regions in the Netherlands had been declining
and was expected to continue to do so in the coming decades was nothing
new for some. In 1996 the Dutch Demographic Society had already
organised a conference on population decline (Dykstra & Van Wissen 1996).
Ten years later, Derks et al. (2006) warned policy makers that populations of
rural areas in the Netherlands were about to decrease considerably. This
urged Van Dam et al. (2006) to write an extensive report about the causes
and consequences of population decline in The Netherlands. They
concluded that the magnitude of the decline was not as great as in other
countries. Moreover, the spatial effects of population decline were expected
to be limited, and population decline was thought to predominantly have a
reinforcing effect on already existing societal change. Nonetheless, they
made clear that on the local level population decline could affect the housing
market, quality of the living environment, and the availability of facilities
and services. In the years thereafter the national government took action. In
2009 a commission was appointed by the national government to further
analyse population decline in selected regions (Dijkstal & Mans 2009). This
commission confirmed the finding by Van Dam et al. (2006) that population
decline in general is not a great problem. However, it also identified specific
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regions where population decline was substantial and structural, and
something had to be done.
Population decline in the Netherlands has thus far manifested itself
predominantly in regions that are furthest away from its economic centre in
the West. North-Netherlands is one of these more peripherally located
regions where population decline has occurred over the past decades. It is
also a region with the lowest address density in the Netherlands, making the
decline of the population in this region principally a rural affair. Parts of
North-Netherlands have been designated by the national government as
‘top’-declining regions, where population decline is already experienced,
and ‘anticipating’ regions, where the population is expected to decline in the
near future (Rijksoverheid et al. 2012).
North-Netherlands is the most rural region in the Netherlands (Haartsen et
al. 2003), but hardly compares to other rural regions in Europe in its rurality.
From any village in North-Netherlands it is possible to travel to the Dutch
capital Amsterdam within three hours. Regional urban centres can be
reached from almost everywhere within half an hour, which is in many rural
parts of Europe the time it takes to get to the next village. North-Netherlands
is therefore classified by the OECD as an ‘intermediate region’ (Brezzi et al.
2011). Neither urban nor rural, these regions look like rural areas but are
close to urban centres so that inhabitants can easily use their benefits. In that
way North-Netherlands compares to other European regions such as parts
of the English countryside, and the ‘rural’ areas of North-France, West-
Germany and North-Italy. One-fifth of the United States also classifies as an
intermediate region.
The decline of the population in North-Netherlands can be considered to be
modest when compared to other declining regions in Europe. As a matter of
fact, the total population of North-Netherlands was still growing up until
2012 (Statline 2015). This growth mostly took place in urban areas, especially
the university-hosting city of Groningen. In the more peripheral areas the
population has been declining for some time. For instance, the NUTS-3
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region Delfzijl and surroundings experienced its first decline in the early
1980s and has lost 15% of its population since then. Once the scale level is
lower, the decline is stronger. If the city of Delfzijl is considered by itself, a
decline of about 20% is observed since the early 1990s until 2016, and the
population of the neighbourhood Delfzijl-North has decreased by over 40%
since 1995.
The designation of areas in North-Netherlands as either declining or
‘anticipating’ regions by the national government, acknowledges the fact
that they deserve special attention in dealing with issues that are often
related to population decline (Haartsen & Van Wissen 2012). These issues
include: empty housing, lower housing prices, fewer employment
opportunities, and a loss of facilities (Van Dam et al. 2009). However, the
nature and context of these associated problems differ between localities.
The closure of a supermarket might for instance do more damage to a village
when it is the last service closing and no substitutes are available within
reasonable distance, than when many other services are still present and
another supermarket can be found in the next village or nearby city. The first
empty derelict home in a village might be an eyesore, but if the majority of
homes in a street are deserted it becomes a problem. Researchers in the
Netherlands therefore advised that the spatial problems in declining areas
had to be dealt with on a regional or even local scale (Van Dam et al. 2006,
Bureau PAU 2012).
Within declining regions a large variation in population change exists
between settlements. Although these regions might experience an overall
decline of their population, declining villages can be located right next to
growing ones (Bontje & Musterd 2012). Such local heterogeneity within
declining regions has even been observed in notable declining regions such
as the Great Plains in the United States (Cantrell 2005). It makes one wonder
why, when regional circumstances are the same, some villages thrive, while
other shrivel. In the Netherlands, Van Dam (1995) therefore already
suggested to further investigate population change on the local level. Thus
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far however, knowledge on why some villages grow, while neighbouring
villages decline remains scarce.
It has long been established that the “principal determinant of population
change at a local scale is migration” (Lewis 1979, p. 101). Migration is
typically defined as moving over long distance, and this type of moving
certainly has an impact on population change in rural villages. However,
within rural North-Netherlands, most moves do not occur into or out of, but
within the region (Bijker & Haartsen 2012). It is therefore likely that these
intra-regional flows can be decisive in the population change of rural
villages. Milbourne (2007) finds it “surprising that more has not been said
about these more local migrations” (p.385). In addition to this, Stockdale &
Catney (2014) emphasise that migration research has paid less attention to
the influence of local circumstances on migration and how such influences
may play out differently over the life course. So, whereas it has been advised
that the problems that occur because of population decline should be dealt
with on the local level (Van Dam 2006, Bureau PAU 2012), little is known
about how the local circumstances influence population change on this level.
Population decline in the Netherlands occurs at a time when governments
have been moving towards a ‘big society’. This means that government tasks
have been shifted downwards; i.e., former national government tasks have
become the responsibility of local governments, and former tasks of local
governments have become the responsibility of citizens (Kisby 2010, Patty
& Jonhston 2011, Putters 2014). In this new society, local governments
appeal to citizens for contributing to their local living environment. In other
words, villages and their inhabitants have to become increasingly self-
reliant. If self-reliance in villages is to be effective, there has to be a certain
level of social capital (Besser 2009, Wilding 2011, Woolcock 1998).
There are two major approaches to social capital. On the one hand there is
the approach of Coleman (1988), who sees social capital as a resource of
individuals who gather social contacts. Putnam (1995, 2000) on the other
hand, places social capital within communities, where people come together
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to interact. When inhabitants of villages tap into the communal social
capital of village life to increase their individual social capital, while at the
same time providing input to the communal social capital, the two
approaches come together. Population decline could harm both individual
and communal social capital. This could happen for instance when specific
categories of the population disappear from villages, or when opportunities
to meet for the remaining villagers become scarce. This would undermine
the government’s new policy direction, which demands increasingly self-
reliant citizens.
1.2 Research aim and research questions
The objective of this research is to gain more insight into flows of movers on
the local level in areas where the population declines and into people’s
experiences of population decline on the local level. It does so by analysing
flows of movers to and from rural villages in North-Netherlands, but also by
investigating in which ways people experience population decline and how
they deal with it. Four research questions are addressed:
1. To what extent are people more likely to move out of a rural village
where the population has been declining, than out of a village where
the population has been stable or growing?
2. How can we classify villages based on net settlement of different age
categories and to what extent do village characteristics influence the
net settlement?
3. To what extent does the absence or closure of a primary school
influence inward and outward flows of families with school-aged
children?
4. How do adults with young children experience population decline
and how do these experiences influence the communal social capital
of a village and the individual social capital of families living in the
village?
The study adds to the sparse literature on the influence of village
characteristics on migration behaviour and flows of movers. Policymakers
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can use this as input for improving their planning strategies, because it
provides insight into what does, and maybe even more crucial, what does
not influence the volatile flows of movers of different ages in declining
regions. Furthermore, this study also adds to the literature by showing that
social capital in villages is certainly influenced by population decline. Before
providing a short overview of the chapters in this book, the relation between
migration and population decline and heterogeneous attractiveness on the
local level is discussed.
1.3 Migration and population decline
Although population decline in the Netherlands also occurs in some
urbanised areas, it is predominantly a rural affair. This can partly be
explained by continuing urbanisation. Year after year, mostly young adults
cannot resist the lure of the cities. Some just move for the excitement that can
be found in urban areas as compared to the relatively uneventful life in
villages (Brandes 1975), but most young people make the rural-urban move
as part of a strategy that will increase their human capital. Their move is
motivated by the prospect of education and employment opportunities that
cannot be found in rural areas. From that perspective urban regions serve as
an escalator region for those attempting to climb the social ladder (Fielding
1992). In some cases people step off the escalator and move back to the rural
areas from whence they came, but often not until later life.
People also move from urban into rural areas. As the comprehensive
literature on counterurbanisation shows, a group of people is actually
attracted by the same aspects of rural life that are found relatively
uneventful by those who leave; space and quietness (e.g., Halfacree 1994,
Steenbekkers et al. 2008). This relates to the dominant understanding of
counterurbanisation that middle-aged middle-class groups move from
urban to rural areas in search of the rural idyll: peace, quiet, safety and the
prospects of intimate village life (Halfacree 2008). However, more recent
research diversifies this image of counterurbanisation by showing that other
motivations for moving, such as being close to family and friends, and cheap
housing, apply to less popular rural areas (Bijker et al. 2012). Stockdale
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(2014) adds to this that the traditional understanding of counterurbanisation
may only be relevant to a small part of urban to rural migration, by
providing evidence that the younger age groups also participate in
counterurban migration flows.
In many rural areas in the Netherlands the size of the influx of people is
insufficient to counter the outflow of others. In former times, relief from
such negative net migration was found in high levels of fertility. From the
Second World War up to the 1970s around three children were born per
woman in the Netherlands. However, societal change brought
secularisation, individualisation, an increasing role for women in society,
and the introduction of the contraconceptive pill. Often understood as the
second demographic transition (Lesthaeghe & Van de Kaa 1986), the
changes resulted in a drop of period fertility rates below replacement level
during the 1970s and have stabilised at around 1.7 children per women for
the last few decades (Billari 2005). Given the above, it is unlikely that the
number of children and young adults in rural areas of the Netherlands will
increase anytime soon, making population decline in rural areas the reality
for at least the coming decades (Haartsen & Venhorst 2010).
The selective migration flows also strengthen the processes of dejuvenation
and ageing. Migration flows strengthen dejuvenation, which is caused by
lower fertility rates, in a direct way because young people move out, and an
indirect way because the departed young adults start their reproductive
careers in urban instead of rural regions. Ageing is partly the other side of
the same coin; caused partly by increasing life expectancy, the share of older
people increases because the number of young people decreases. Moreover,
life expectancy has been increasing. Many rural regions in North-
Netherlands are thus faced with declining populations that contain fewer
children, and more older people than before.
1.4 Heterogeneous attractiveness of rural villages
The population developments sketched above provide an explanation for
population decline in rural areas, but are insufficient to explain the
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differences in population change between villages within these areas. To
understand why these differences exist, the local circumstances need to be
taken into account when considering why people move into or out of rural
villages (Stockdale & Catney 2014). Traditionally, explanations for moving
behaviour have focused on the availability of jobs. Rural villages have
however evolved from being autonomous villages, where the village
provided in jobs and all of the other inhabitants’ needs, to residential
villages, where the large majority of people commutes to nearby urban
centres (Thissen & Loopmans 2013). Other village characteristics that might
attract or repel people are often referred to as amenities, a term which has
been described as “pleasant living conditions” (Ullman 1954, p. 119).
Many aspects of the living environment can be considered amenities, such as
scenic beauty (McGranahan 2008, Argent et al. 2009), services (Dustman &
Okatenko 2014) and accessibility (Gkartzios & Scott 2009). However, the
importance of specific amenities depends on the different needs of people.
For some it might be more pleasant to live close to services, while others
prefer to live close to a forest or even a train station for commuting. As the
needs of people differ over the life course, age is likely to be a determinant of
which amenities matter. For rural villages this means that their specific sets
of amenities could influence the inward and outward flows differently at
different ages.
Population decline is sometimes understood as being part of a downward
spiral. The idea is that population decline leads to a decline of jobs, services
and quality of the living environment. This might motivate people to leave
or refrain from entering a declining area, causing more population decline,
which puts even more pressure on jobs, services, and the quality of the
living environment (Myrdal 1957). Cases where population decline
depresses the regional economy and the depressed economy inspires more
population decline have been well documented in literature (e.g., Glaeser et
al. 1992). Much less is known about self-reinforcing processes on the local
level, or, to what extent population decline in villages influences an
intermediating source that inspires more population decline. On this local
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level population decline and amenities might reinforce each other, for
instance when local services close, or when the local housing market is
disrupted because of lower housing values or a decline in the quality of the
housing.
1.5 Research outline
The research questions presented above are addressed in the next four
chapters of this book. The first research question is answered in chapter 2
and focusses on individual migration decisions. It aims to find out whether
population decline on the village level is self-reinforcing by analysing to
what extent preceding population decline at the village level has an effect on
the probability to move out or within the village. The analysis distinguishes
between people of different ages, education levels and occupational statuses.
Moreover, a multinomial regression model is estimated that differentiates
between moves over different distances. In this chapter it is revealed that a
preceding decline of the population in a village increases the probability to
move out of the neighbourhood, but that this effect differs between
categories of the population and between the distances of the moves.
To gain more insight into population change of villages, chapter 3 analyses
flows of movers in villages in rural North-Netherlands. It focusses is on how
net settlement of different age categories in villages is influenced by the
attractiveness of a village, which answers the second research question. The
attention is confined to net settlement in this chapter, because that
determines the population change of different age categories in villages to a
large extent. Using different age categories provides the opportunity to find
out to what extent some villages are more attractive than others for people of
different ages, and which village characteristics influences these differences
in attractiveness. In this chapter the villages are first clustered by net
settlement of different age categories to get a broader understanding of
settlement patterns of villages. In the second part of the chapter linear
regression models are estimated to find out to what extent village
characteristics influence net settlement per age category. Explanatory
variables are grouped by type of amenity, but other characteristics such as
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housing construction are also included. The regression analysis shows that
effects of village characteristics on net settlement may vary considerably
between different age categories. Especially the findings of the effect of
primary schools on net settlement are interesting and contrary to previous
research findings on the topic.
Chapter 4 answers the third research question on the extent to which the
inward and outward flows of families with children in villages are
influenced by the presence of a primary school. A distinction is made
between villages where the primary school is still present, villages where the
primary was not present during the period of observation, and villages
where the primary school closed during the period of observation.
Population register data from the Netherlands were used to model the
moving behaviour of families with children on the village level for the
period 1996-2011. It was expected that a village with a recent closure of a
primary school would experience an increase in the outflow and a decrease
in the influx of families with children; a scenario much feared by families
with children who live in rural villages. The results of the regression
analyses show that these fears are partly unfounded.
In Chapter 5 it is investigated in which ways people in selected rural villages
in North-Netherlands experience consequences of decline. Furthermore, it is
examined how the perceived consequences of population decline influences
the collective social cohesion within the villages and the individual social
capital of its inhabitants. The reason for this is that social cohesion and social
capital are important factors in the self-reliance of rural villages and its
inhabitants, which is actively and increasingly promoted by national and
local governments. To uncover these relations, 23 in-depth interviews in six
villages in the North and East of the province of Groningen were conducted.
The results showed that the consequences of population decline that are
predominantly experienced are found in tangible aspects of the living
environment. Furthermore, it showed that population decline influences
social capital differently over time.
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Chapter 6 contains the conclusions of the studies described above,
recommendations for further research, and recommendations for policy
makers.
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