University of Dundee Integrating science, modelling and stakeholders through qualitative and quantitative scenarios Allan, Andrew; Barbour, Emily Publication date: 2016 Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication in Discovery Research Portal Citation for published version (APA): Allan, A., & Barbour, E. (2016). Integrating science, modelling and stakeholders through qualitative and quantitative scenarios: ESPA Deltas Working Paper no.5. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in Discovery Research Portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from Discovery Research Portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain. • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal. Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 25. Mar. 2020
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University of Dundee
Integrating science, modelling and stakeholders through qualitative and quantitativescenariosAllan, Andrew; Barbour, Emily
Publication date:2016
Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of record
Link to publication in Discovery Research Portal
Citation for published version (APA):Allan, A., & Barbour, E. (2016). Integrating science, modelling and stakeholders through qualitative andquantitative scenarios: ESPA Deltas Working Paper no.5.
General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in Discovery Research Portal are retained by the authors and/or othercopyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated withthese rights.
• Users may download and print one copy of any publication from Discovery Research Portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain. • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal.
Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediatelyand investigate your claim.
1 Allan, A. A., Lim, M., Islam, N., Huq, H. (June 2013) Livelihoods and ecosystem service provision in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh: an analysis of legal, governance and management issues, ESPA Deltas Working Paper #1, University of Dundee, UK, source: <www.espadelta.net>.
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The above list is somethingof a synthesis of the issues identified,2drawing together and
summarising amore extensive list ofmore specific issues for the sake of conciseness. In
3 O’Neill, B.C., Carter, T.R., Ebi, K.L., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kemp-Benedict, E., Kriegler, E., Mearns, L., Moss, R., Riahi, K., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D. 2012. Meeting Report of the Workshop on The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research, Boulder, CO, November 2-4, 2011. Available at: http://www.isp.ucar.edu/socio-economic-pathways
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The other element of the IPCC scenario approach, the Representative Concentration
Pathways (Moss et al, 2010) or RCPs, were not explicitly incorporated into the project
Landuse:Cultivatedareas continued tobedominatedby rice, butdiversificationof crops, especiallythemore intense cultivation of cash crops, driven by better access to markets (local andinternational)andeffectiveagriculturalextensionandeducationaloutreach,hasflourished.Theenvironmentalimpactofshrimpcultivationhasdecreasedsubstantiallyinextentduetothe adoption of more sustainable techniques. Investment in agricultural research anddevelopment, along with adoption of more climate-smart agricultural techniques, hasbolsteredtheuseofhighyieldvarietiesandmoresalt-tolerantvarietiesbecauseoftheneedto reduce the area under crops, in the interests of environmental protection and naturalflooddefence.Thispressuretoreduceoratleastmaintainnomorethanexistinglevelsofagriculturallandhasbeenhelpedbythegeneralstabilisationinpopulationnumbersandcontinuing(ifslightlyreduced)rural-urbanmigration.Theproportionofurbanagainstruralpopulationshasrisensteadily,therebyincreasingtheneedforgreaterintensificationofagriculture,aprocessthathasnotbeenalleviatedbytheglobalmarketplace.Greater intensification of agriculture has lead to a slight deterioration in soil qualityparameters.Thishasbeenoffsetbyspecialdevelopmentprogramsthathaveproducednewcrop varieties that are suitable for coastal areas and less hazardous to soil health. Theproportion of chemical fertilizers and pesticides used has declined compared to organicmanureandintegratedpestmanagement.Coastalprotectionhasbeenextended,mainlythroughtheeffortsoftheDeltaplan,usingamixtureof structural andnon-structural options.Better zoningandmonitoringof landusechange,hasbeenbeneficial,andthequalityoflandusemanagementisnowoneofthekeyfactors in themanagement ofwater use. Conflict over land use, including over ownershiprights, has been very much reduced, due mainly to improvements in transparency andaccountability through the land ownership cadastre and significant improvements to thelocaljudicialhierarchy.WaterSurfacewaterflowpatternsintheGangesandBrahmaputrarivershavevariedovertime,thearrivalofthemonsoonhasbecomelesspredictableandperiodsofdroughtextendedduetotheimpactsofclimatechange.Withbettercoordinationbetweenthestatesripariantotheserivers however, management of water resources in Bangladesh has been able to makeprogress. The application of efficient land and watermanagement practices and effectiveenforcement processes in India have enhanced predictability and availability of flow intoBangladeshandreducedlevelsofindustrialandnutrientpollution.
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Similar progress has taken place in Bangladesh: advances in communications technologyprovideregulatorswithdetailedknowledgeofriverflow,levelandqualityinrealtime,withsophisticated modelling ability aiding the regulation of water use management. Legalframeworks allow water use to be varied in response to changes in resource availability,social andenvironmentalpriorities, and thebetterbalancingofperiodsof floodand inter-annualscarcity.In line with the stronger economic situation in Bangladesh, water and sewage serviceprovision have been extended, and the careful planning of urban expansion has greatlyrestricted water pollution and reduced the incidence of water-borne disease. This hasincreased riverine fish stocks and rural engagement with cultured and floodplain fishproduction has increased. Subsistence and artisanal fisheries have decreased. butcommercialfisherieshaveconverselyincreased.,thoughtheimpactofthishasbeenreducedthrough improvednational and international governanceof fisherieswhich isnow focusedon sustainablecoastal fishing.The successfulachievementof theMillenniumDevelopmentGoals, and subsequent iterations, has created a society where the vast majority of thepopulationhaveaccesstopipedwaterintheirhomesandimprovedsanitationfacilities.Thishasbeenaidedthroughexcavationofpondsandtanksforconservationofwaterandtheuseoflocaltechnologyforwatertreatment,suchaspondsandfiltering.Thisimprovementindrinkingwateravailability,combinedwiththeuseofdeeperaquifersinmanyplaces has helpedpeople avoid theproblems associatedwith consumptionof salineand arsenic-contaminated water. Steps have been taken to ensure sustainable use andmanagementofgroundwater.Therehasbeenamajorfocusonconjunctivemanagementofsurfacewaterandgroundwater.Bettermonitoringofwatertablelevelsandgroundwater/surface water interactions, and the ability to amend water use rights, is progressivelyimprovingthesituation,althoughalternativesuppliesmaystillbedifficulttoapply.Adequateupland flow has been ensured in water channels through the construction of the GangesBarrage that has helped preserve the coastal estuary ecosystem threatened by seawaterintrusion.With the rapid development of upstream energy generation facilities, sediment transportdownstreamhasbeencurtailed.Thisremainsamajor issueforthehealthofthedelta,butbasinstatesareworkingtogethertoformulateasolutionunderthetermsofexistingwateruse treaties. The increased focus on sediment has resulted in improved tidal basinmanagementandincreasednavigationpotential.
As part of the general improvement in themanagement of water resources, principles ofsubsidiarityhavebeenappliedsuchthatlocalmanagementofwatertakesbetteraccountofupstream and downstream needs. Cooperation between these has therefore improved,helped by the cross-sectoral management of water resources as a whole and effectivecompliance monitoring. Levels of conflict between users and sectors, and justiciabledisagreementshaveconsequentlyfallen.
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InternationalcooperationRelations have greatly improved between Bangladesh and India, and between India andChina, a process driven partly by the regionalisation of energy markets and the criticalimportanceofhydropowerasafossilfuelreplacement.Coordinationofelectricitygenerationat basin level, taking account of downstream impacts in terms of flood alleviation,augmentation of dry season flow, improved scarcity management and the sedimentrequirements of the delta, has sprung from a regional realisation that the benefits ofcooperation can be spread equitably and strategically throughout the basin. ImprovedtransportlinksbetweenChittagongandbothKunminginChinaandthenorth-easternstatesof India, coupled with investments in the delta area by both upstream countries, haveresultedingreatertradelinksbetweenthethreenationsandmoreeffectiveabstractionandpollutioncontrolintheupperreachesoftheBrahmaputraandGangesrivers.Detailed multi- and bi-lateral treaties have been agreed by GBM basin states addressingwater issues, closely linked to agreements on trade and energy distribution. Independentmanagementauthoritiesareinplace,withdetailedcomplianceandreportingrequirements,andnationallegalandpolicyframeworksworktoeffecttheseagreements.International fisheries agreements relevant to the Bay of Bengal have led to greater foodsecurityforcoastalfishermenandimprovedenforcementhasreducedlevelsofseapiracy.
DisastermanagementWiththegradualdecentralisationofBangladesh,drawingpopulationfromDhakatoregionalhubs, disaster management has also been further devolved, with disaster risk reductionbeing linked closely with adaptation. Disaster forecasting and preparedness is of world-standard quality, benefiting from advances in communication technology. The network ofcyclone shelters, financed primarily by local and regional authorities and through privatesector initiatives, has evolved such that the impact of increasing storm surges has beenlargelynegated,withlossoflifebeingmaintainedatrelativelyminimallevels.Adaptiveagri-andaqua-culturesystemshavealsohelpedtosubstantiallyreduceproductionlossesduring–andpost-disasterandaidedpost-disasterresilience.Storageoflocalcropsandlivestockhasbeen significantly improved,with effective local insurance schemes in place to amelioratelivelihood losses. Improved transport networks between urban centres has also had apositive effect in the response timesof emergency and remediation teams. The successfuland ongoing implementation of theDelta Plan has been advantageous for disaster impactreduction.EnvironmentalmanagementMangroveforestcoverhasbeenmaintained intheSundarbansat the levelsseenearlier inthecentury,augmentedbyactiveplantingprogrammesthathavetakenplaceaspartoftheDelta Plan. The result has been an increase in terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity as themangrovebelthasexpandedalongthecoast.Theforesthasbenefittedfromimprovements
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inwaterquality,butthebalancingof livelihoodmaintenanceforthoselivinginthevicinity,andprotectionofbiodiversity,remainsproblematic.Improvementsintheeconomicsituationfor those living in the case areashas reduced theneed touse the Sundarbansdirectly fortheir livelihood maintenance, but a significant increase in ‘eco-tourism’, some of it stillunregulated,continuestocomplicatematters.Soilandwaterhealthhasincreasedoverall,drivenbyimprovementsinwaterqualityandtheuse of state-of-the-art agricultural techniques. Although salt water intrusion remainsproblematic, better surface/groundwater management and improved polder maintenancehashelpedtokeepthisincheck.QualityoflifeandlivelihoodsStandardsof education in the countrysidehave leapt exponentially, especially for females.This, coupledwith agricultural intensification and themanaged expansionof decentralisedurban hubs, has perpetuated general levels of migration away from the countryside. Thegradualerosionof the traditionalvillageandregionalhierarchiesandpowerstructureshasopenedupawidevarietyofpossiblelivelihoodalternativesforthoseinthecaseareas.Theprincipal agents of this erosion have been the astonishingly rapid development ofmobiletechnology (providing greater visibility for those working against the law), more effectiveenforcement mechanisms resulting from economic development, and improvements ineducationalabilitystemmingfromenforcedmandatorystandards.As regards population structure, fertility andmortality rates have beendeclining for sometime now, and, critically, levels of out-migration to regional urban hubs has gone downslightly. The consequence of this is that population levels have dropped very slightly fromtheir 2014 levels, but the structure has changed since then such that there areproportionatelysignificantlymoreagedover65andsubstantiallyfeweragedunder14.Theavailabilityofcredithasimprovedsignificantly,throughaprofusionofpublicandprivateproviders,withrelianceonlocalmoneylendersnon-existent.Theavailabilityofinsuranceforall has had significant impacts on the resilience of those in the case areas, reducingvulnerability to flood events, for example. Better access to local markets especially,combined with the diversification of crops, has improved the health of the population,althoughmeatisveryexpensiveandproteinintakeremainsproblematicforsome.Incidenceofhypertensionhasrisenalarminglyaspopulationshavegrownmoresedentary,withhighertemperaturesdiscouragingphysicalactivitystillfurther.Levels of inter-household inequity have fallen in the case areas, as local remittances haveincreased, thegapbetween the richestelitesand thoseonaverage incomeshasnarrowedwiththecrumblingoftraditionalsocialstructures,andincomelevelsforfemaleshavegoneup (a process that has been mirrored at regional level, reducing income disparities moregenerally).Thishasalsolimitedintra-householdinequity,withmalefamilymembersfindingitprogressivelymoredifficulttomaintaineconomichegemonyoverothersintheirfamilies.The number of NGOs has gone down over time, but their effectiveness has risen, in part
Landuse:Whiletherateofchangeinlandusehasrisen,therehasbeenagradualmovetoincreaseddiversification of crops, for example to include more wheat and more vegetables, withcontinuing increases in shrimp production. Due to improvements in cultivation techniques(followingdecent hikes in the level of investment inR&D),more efficient useof fertilisersandpesticides,moretargetedsubsidyprogrammesandtheuseofhigh-yieldvarieties,yieldperhectareforallcropshasincreased.Consequently,althoughcultivatedareasgivenovertoricehavedecreased,overallproductionhasrisen.Reductions inthe levelofresourceconflict,betweenfarmersandfish-farmersforexample,alongwiththeenhancedroleofagriculturalextensionofficersandmoreintegratedrice/fishfarming,providepositivecontributions to increasing farmyield,alongwithhigher levelsofunderstanding of appropriate techniques on the part of farmers. Overall, these have theeffectofcancellingoutthedetrimentalimpactofthechangesinseasonalitythathavebeenexperienced. Less helpfully, the combined effect of more intensive land use and patchyenvironmentalmanagementcompliancehasbeenanincreaseinlanddegradation.Theextentofcoastaldefenceinfrastructurehasbeenenhanced,andnaturalfloodbarriers,suchas themangrove forest,havebeen slightly reduced inextent.Regulationof landuse,includingforfloodplainandsectoralusezoning,hasimproved,ashavelevelsofCentralanddevolvedplanningcapacity.WaterImprovementstothetechnologyusedforirrigationhavebeendriveninpartbyareductionin theamountofwater comingdown from India,with some reductions inpredictabilityofavailabilityandwaterquality.Predictabilityandavailabilityareaffectedinpartbyincreasedriver regulation in Nepal, India and China with water pollution levels being driven by acombination of lower flows and higher levels of upstream industrial pollution. Theseimprovementsinirrigationhavebeentosomeextentoffsetbyasignificantoverallincreaseintheuseofwaterforagriculture.Reducedfreshwaterflowandgreateruseofwaterforagriculturecoupledwithsealevelrisehave heightened problems associated with saline intrusion in coastal areas. Despite this,provisionofwatertohouseholds,evenininformalsettlementareas,hasimprovedtosomeextent with better service delivery efficiency and infrastructure maintenance, followinginvestment in water and sanitation service provision pursuant to achievement ofdevelopmentgoals.Asaresultofthedecreasingflowincross-borderrivers,accretionisincreasing,witherosionalsoincreasingintheupperreachesofthedelta.
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Cooperationbetweenwaterusersacrossandwithinsectorshasimprovedasaresultoftherelativescarcityofwaterandamplifiedlevelsofdemand.InternationalcooperationMaintainingtheselevelsofcooperationhasnotbeenaidedbyadeteriorationintheextentto which basin states on the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers are cooperating, both withrespect towater and in relation to trade. This is oneof themost significantdriversof thereductionintransboundaryflows.ChinahasretaineditsobserverstatuswiththeSAARC,andeffortstoaccorditfullmembershiphavenotyetsucceeded.DisastermanagementAlongwithincreasesintheextentofcoastaldefenceandemergencyinfrastructure(suchascycloneshelters),effortshavebeenmadetobettermaintaintheseconstructions.Storageofharvested crops is substantially better than in 2013, through initiatives such as cyclone-resistanthouseholds.Thebenefits fromthese improvementshavebeenadrasticreductionin the lossof lifeasa resultof cyclones, forexample,but relative increases in the levelofeconomicdamagecaused.EnvironmentalmanagementAfter decades of reasonably stable forest cover, themangrove forest in the case area hassufferedasmalldegreeofencroachment.Withreducedlevelsofwaterflowandincreasinguseofagriculturalfertilisersacrossthecountry,forexample,waterqualityhasdeterioratedto a certain extent, with governance capacity having improved to some degree but notsufficientlytocontroldiffusepollution.Improvementstoreticulatedwatersupplieshavenotbeen quite adequate to compensate for this, and consequently levels of water-bornediseaseshave risenslightly.Protectionofbiodiversityhasbeendetrimentallyaffectedbyagovernment focus on economic development though efforts by civil society groups toremedythishavebeensteppedup.Coastalfisherieshavedwindledduetotheuseofillegalanddestructivegear,defyingthebanperiodbythefishersandcatchingofundersizedfishes.Despitethisover-fishingcontinuesasenforcementisweak.QualityoflifeandlivelihoodsThe means by which households in the case areas maintain themselves have diversifiedsignificantly since 2013, in addition to incorporating changes in cropping patterns. Thisincludessubstantialoutwardmigrationfromthecaseareas,driveninpartbyruralpressuresbut more so by the economic attractions of urban areas such as Khulna, Chittagong andDhaka. Population levels have remained largely static in coastal regions, though thepopulationisageingandthefertilityratehasdecreased.Longtimeupwardtrendsinliteracyrateshavecontinued,witheducationlevelsmuchimprovedontheir2014levels.
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Income levelsareaffectedpositivelybyadownturn in the importanceof intermediaries inproduction processes, driven in part by rapid developments in mobile informationtechnologyandcommunications,pricetransparencyandmarketaccess.Householdstorageof food has also increased, alleviating periods of scarcity somewhat. As a proportion ofincome, food is cheaper than it was in previous decades, with better eating habits andprotein intake. However, this is offset by a slight increase in the incidence of non-communicable diseases and conditions, such as hyper-tension, with vector-borne (andzoonotic) diseases also rising, mainly as a result of rising temperatures and climaticconditions.Increasedhouseholdincomecoupledwithcontinuingproblemswithsignificantdisparitiesinincome has resulted in a drop in inter-household equity, although this is complicated bybroad advances in the participation of marginalised groups in society. Community powerstructuresofpatronagestillgovernmuchofruralsociety,butincreasinginvolvementoftheprivatesectorandofNGOsinlocaleconomicactivitiesischangingthedynamic.Progressintheavailabilityofmobilecommunicationshasmadeenhancedawarenessoflegalrightsandobligations, and improved access to information to a great degree. Enforcement of theserightshas improvedslightly, in linewithsomeadvancements in localenforcementcapacity(throughbetterlocalgovernmentempowerment),thoughthesearesomewhatrestrictedbyalackofprogressonthecapacityoflocalcourtstoprocessclaims.Thisishighlightedbythedisturbing lack of progress on tackling dakoits, which continues to blight the lives andeconomiesofthosewhorelyonfishinginparticular.
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LessSustainableFuture:
Landuse:Areasthatwereformerlycultivatedhavebeengivenovertoamixtureofsaltwatershrimpand to a lesser extent, rice, respectively serving the exportmarket and local consumptionneedsofsubsistencefarmers.Freshwaterprawnproductionhasdecreased.Saltwatershrimpproductionhas taken increasingly large sharesof cultivable land,pushing subsistence farmland into areas more vulnerable to inundation and less protected by coastal engineeringinfrastructure.Moreintensivericecultivationischaracterisedbyhighlevelsoffertiliseruse,althoughyieldsperhectarehavenotrisenasfastastheymightbecauseR&Dprioritieshavefocusedonproducingshrimpfortherichestnations.Inter-sectoral cooperation (e.g. between fishermen and farmers) is on the decrease, andintra-sectoral conflictbetween theownersof industrial farmingconcerns (and their tenantfarmers), and subsistence farmers is growing. Scarcity of available secure land and thedifficulty in obtaining cleanwater for irrigation from reducedwater resources exacerbatesdisagreements.Agriculturalextensionofficersprioritisetheproductionofexportablecrops,leaving subsistence farmers struggling to take advantageof new techniques and subsidies,andsubjecttoheightenedlevelsofinsecurityasseasonalcroppingpatternschangewiththeclimate.In addition to the encroachment of saltwater shrimp production, mangrove forests havebeenslowlysacrificedtocommercialagriculture,saltpansandunplannedurbanspread,asaresult of a combination of the government need for hard currency, increasing soil andsurfacewatersalinity,andpopulationmigrationfromruralpoverty.Vulnerabilitytofloodinghas therefore increasedasnaturalbarriershavebeen removedandexistingembankmentsarepoorlymanagedduetolackoffinancialresourcesandsectoralconflicts.Whilefloodplainand land use zoning is in place, implementation levels are low because of a lack ofenforcement.
WaterWater resources have decreased significantly as a result of a combination of a number offactors: the rapid development of constructed upstream for the purposes of energyproduction, flood alleviation and irrigation schemes; the impact of the now fully-implemented Inter-linking Rivers Project; and large-scale transfers from the Brahmaputrariver inChina toprovidewater fornorthern irrigationschemesanddomesticconsumers inBeijing.Theefficiencyofindustrialagriculturalirrigationishigh,butthisisheavilyreliantontheunregulateduseofgroundwater(driveninpartbyenergysubsidiesthatfuelpumping),necessarybecauseof the lackof surfacewater flowand theneed to accesshigherqualitywateruntaintedbypollutedsurfacewater.Theunfettereduseofgroundwaterfromthelesssalineshallowaquifersinthenorthernpartof the southwest coastal zone, coupled with the rise in sea level, has hastened saline
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intrusionofaquifers.Thespreadofunplannedurbansettlements,especiallyinDhaka,drivenby population growth in the country as awhole and by out-migration from coastal areas,haveadverselyaffectedwaterqualitydownstreamasaresultofalackofsewagetreatmentworks. Early advances in achieving development goals have been undermined by thispopulationgrowth.Althougheconomicgainshavetoacertainextentcontinued,theyhavenotbeensufficienttocounteractchangesinpopulationpatternsandlocation.
Levels of cooperation between upstream and downstream districts have decreasedwithinBangladesh,mirroring the rise in inter-sectoral conflict between land andwater users. Asland use ownership patterns havemoved to a greater proportion of tenant farmers, localwatermanagementinstitutionshavefoundthemselvestoothlessandineffective,withlongertermmanagementdecisionsbeingcompromisedbyshorttermpriorities.
InternationalcooperationCooperation in terms of access to global markets has increased in some ways, althoughexports are very much higher than imports. Cooperation at the more regional level hashowever deteriorated, with basin co-riparians in direct competition with each other,especially with respect to agricultural commodities. This has destroyed efforts tomanageregional watercourses at the basin level, with corresponding impacts on the amount offreshwaterflowingintoBangladesh.Remainingbasin-levelgovernanceeffortsarefocusedonmaintainingflowsneededforcommercialagricultureandaquaculture.
Disastermanagement
Although there has been some increase in the extent of coastal defence and emergencyinfrastructure (such as cyclone shelters), maintenance efforts have concentrated onprotectingagriculturalinvestments.Thishasresultedinacreepingprocessofpolderisationindownstreamareas,althoughstorageofharvestedsubsistencecropshasincreasedatvillagelevel.Theseareseldomstrongenoughtowithstandthepressuresfromcyclonesandstormsurges however. Loss of life as a result of these pressures remains low, but thedisproportionately high numbers of female deaths means that impacts on livelihoods aredrastic.EnvironmentalmanagementWater quality has been detrimentally affected by the relatively low surface water flowscomingintoBangladeshanddiffusepollutionasaconsequenceoftheliberaluseoffertilisersbothupstreamandinBangladeshitself.Thishasbeencompoundedbytheeffluentresultingfrom the expansion of unplanned informal settlements. Encroachment in areas previouslycovered by mangrove has continued, with commensurate effects on biodiversity and thecapacityofsupportingecosystemservices.Civilsocietyeffortstocombatlossofbiodiversityhavebeendissipatedbyalackofinter-andintra-sectoralcoherence,althoughtheincidenceofpovertyhasbeenresponsibleforanincreaseinthenumbersofCSOs.Fishstocksincoastal
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riversareunder severepressure,asarecoastal fisheries,partlyasa resultof irresponsibleshrimpfarmingmethodsandpartlybecauseofpoorregulationandenforcement.Levelsofwater-bornediseaseshaverisenbecausepoorer familieshave littlealternative tousing contaminated surfacewater for domestic use: groundwater levels have fallen belowthelimitsofcheappumps,andsaltwaterintrusioniscommon.QualityoflifeandlivelihoodsTheembeddedpower structures characteristicof ruralBangladeshat thebeginningof the21st century have become even more entrenched as local elites take advantage of theeconomicgainstobemadethroughtheproductionofsaltwatershrimpandthelowcostoflabour.OutwardmigrationtourbancentreswithinBangladesh,particularlyDhaka,hasrisenas populations have grown and commercialisation of agriculture has reduced still furtherlabourneedsinruralareas.Everexpandingurbanareasandlowemploymentopportunitiesincitiesmeanthatmonetarytransfersbacktoruralareasbymigrantworkershavereducedmarkedly,andmigrationoutofBangladeshtotraditionalremittance-generatingregionshasbecome more challenging as the traditional international migration destinations are nowvery much more selective about immigration because of the sheer volume of immigrantlaboursourcesglobally.Populationlevelsinthecaseareashavenotchangeddrasticallyinrecentdecades,butthisisonlybecausehigher fertility levelshavebeenoffsetbystubbornlyhighmortality ratesandthemarkedincreaseinoutwardmigration..Livelihoodsourcesalsohavenotchangedgreatly,thoughthenumberofoldertenantfarmershasrisen,aspeopleofworkingagehavemovedto industrial farms for employment, leaving the young and old behind. Remittances fromfamily members who have moved abroad or to urban centres have diminished, but thecapacityofthelandtosupportthegrowingpopulation,coupledwithclimate-drivenchangesincroppingcycleshasmeantthatsuchmigrationhasbecomeanecessity.Thisisexacerbatedbytheoutwardmovementofthosewhoselivelihoodshavebeendestroyedbystorms.Thoselivinginthelargelyunplannedinformalurbansettlementsareoftenforcedtoliveinahand-to-mouthway,withonlytheluckiestprogressingontosecurejobs.Familystructuresarelessstrongthantheywere30or40yearsago,althoughfamilynetworksareofgreatimportanceinmaintainingremittancelevelsateventheircurrentlevel.Thoseworkinginindustrialagriculturaloperationsenjoygreatersecurityofincome,althoughsalariesarekeptlowbytheconstantneedtokeepBangladeshcompetitiveinaverydifficultmarket. Subsistence farmers remain almost completely outside national and internationalmarkets, and are unable to take advantage of technological advances in mobiletelecommunications.Themaindevelopingmarketforthoseengagedinbusinessoutsidethemajor agricultural conglomerates lies inWest Bengal, with cross border trade in the areabetweenKolkataandKhulnagrowingrapidly,aprocessaidedbythegradualdestructionofthe sundarban mangroves. Electricity distribution networks are unreliable especially incoastal areas, an ongoing problem causedmainly by the poverty in the area and the highfrequencyofdamagebystorms.Foodandproteinscarcityinsubsistenceareashasbecomea
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problem, leading to an increase in openwater fishing by residents, despite the risks. Theincidence of vector-borne (and zoonotic) diseases has risen, mainly as a result of risingtemperaturesandclimaticconditions.Theerosionof family structureshas, surprisingly raised levels of intra-householdequity asearnersofanykindhavebeingmoreimportant,but inter-householdequityhasdroppedasthe split between subsistence and tenant farmers has deepened. More urgent efforts byNGOs and CSOs to help the very poorest have been beneficial in terms of encouragingbroadercivicparticipation,butthepowerdifferentialbetweenlargelylocally-focusedgroupsandthelargescalefarmingconcernshasrenderedtheworkoftheformerlargelyirrelevant.Earlierweaknesses in localdisputeresolutionandaccess to rightshavemultipliedwith theinvolvementof local elites inwealthdevelopmentactivities.Creeping centralisationoveraperiodofdecadeshasleftanemboldenedlocalgovernanceframeworkcharacterisedbylackof accountability and transparency, and an absence of central oversight. Backlogs in localcourtshavefallen,butthisistheresultnotofgreaterefficiencybutofanincreasingfatalismofthepartoftheaggrievedpopulation.Theabilityofthepooresttoaccess lendingfacilities isveryrestrictedas formal institutionsarereluctantto lend.Thepoorremainreliantonlendingatusuriousratesby local lenders.The increased incidence of piracy further affects livelihoods, especially those of fishers,whosenumbersaredwindlingasstockscollapseandmigrationbecomesmoreattractive.
accommodated by the project models. Following a further introductory talkregarding session objectives by Dr. Michelle Lim after lunch, the attendees were
split into three groups by simply going around the tables and numbering peoplefrom 1-3, going right to left. This was an effort to ensure that there was no
those (1 or 2) who were did not speak the language, pushing them into othergroups.Therewasalsoacertainamountofconfusionamongsomeparticipantsover
the scenarios reflecting possible future situations rather than reflecting aninterpretationoftheexistingposition.
After the teabreak, eachgroup’s appointed spokespersonpresented their group’sfindings on a flipchart. Lack of time, and the presence of the State Minister for
Planning, meant that there was no opportunity to go through the consolidatedcommentswithparticipants.Agreatdealofdebatewasgeneratedineachgroup.
II–THESCENARIONARRATIVES
The first stakeholderworkshop tookplace inDhaka inOctober2013.Participantsagreedtoaconsolidatedlistofissuesofgreatestconcerntothem(asoutlinedinthe
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WP1 Fast Track document), and proceeded to detail how individual elements ofthoseissuesmightlookunderaBusinessasUsualscenarioin2050.Thisproduceda
list of almost 100 individual elements, along with an outline of the degree and
directionofchangeexpected.
The listwas translated into a narrative summary for ease of comprehension, and
preliminaryeffortsweremade to identifywhichof theelementscould feasiblyberepresentedintheprojectmodellingefforts.Twofurthernarrativesaddressingthe
stakeholder-proposedelementswerealsosubsequentlydrafted,representingMoreand Less Sustainable projections. The three resulting scenario narratives were
largely inspiredbytheIPCCSharedSocio-economicPathwaysprocess for theAR5
In addition to the problems of interpreting the above in such away as to render
them modellable, serious difficulties are likely where some degree of spatial
explicitnessisdesired.Ultimately,itwouldbeveryusefulfortheintegratedmodelto represent the potential consequences of e.g. polder construction in specific