University of Buckingham Humanities Graduate Centre. Advanced Studies Seminars 2013 Thursday 25 April 2013 How immigration is changing Britain and other.

University of Buckingham Humanities Graduate Centre. Advanced Studies Seminars 2013

Thursday 25 April 2013

How immigration is changing Britain and other European societies

David Coleman, University of [email protected]

http://www.spi.ox.ac.uk/oxpop

A nation of immigrants?

Yes – in the very long run!

Most genetic ancestry appears to be ancient

Uncertain magnitude and effects of Saxon invasions 5th – 7th centuries, Danes 8th – 9th.

Relatively small contributions from Romans, Normans and others.

Later arrivals episodic, more impact on culture and economy than on population.

Post-war immigration to Europe and the rise of ethnic minority populations.

Historically, Europe a region of emigration.Large-scale immigration in peacetime mostly from 1960s:

Guest-workers to some countriesEasy entry from former colonies – for a time.Subsequent entry of dependants and new spousesChain migration from non-European countries helped by ‘familist’ culture, large family size, revolutions in information, transport, rights.EU expansionRenewed recent interest in skilled migration, age structure.

Policy important but erratic; many now restrictive

Some facilitating factors for migration

Unequal pace of economic development and demographic transition in ‘North’ and ‘South’.

Geographical proximity (UK/Ireland, Sweden/Finland.)

Political / historical connections.Post-war ‘revolutions’ in transport, information and

rights.State policy in sending and receiving countries.Expansion of EU and its powers.International conventions / human rights.The ‘migration industry’ and trafficking.

Peculiar characteristics of migration to UKLabour migration not organised by state – no ‘guest worker’ scheme except in 1940s.

Foreign immigration controlled since 1905, immigration of ‘British subjects’ not until 1962 / 71.

Some persistent electoral privileges for Commonwealth

Low levels of immigration from EU15, high from A8.

No significant organised return migration or repatriation.

Prominence of ‘ethnic’ classifications, not ‘immigrant ‘ or ‘foreigner’, multicultural policies.

Consensus on relatively restrictive migration policy 1963 – 1997, new pro-migration policy since 1997 – 2010, PBS.

(Vague) numerical target for first time since 2010.

Weak data, no register, but only country with emigration data.

Turkey and Western Europe 1950-2050 – an illustration of demographic disparity

Population trends and projections, selected European countries and Turkey 1950-2050 (millions). Source: United Nations 2004-based estimates.

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

France

Germany

Italy

United Kingdom

Turkey

Migration flows to European Union and USA, 1960 – 2011 (nb EU data include movement from one EU country to another; about 40%)

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Net immigation to EU-15, EU27 countries, gross inflow to the USA, 1960 - 2011 and net inflow to USA 2001-2011 (thousands). Sources: Eurostat, US Dept of Homeland Security.

Net immigration to EU-15 countries

Persons accepted for permanent residence, USA (gross inflow)

Net immigration to EU27 countries

Gross migration flow to France 2005, by reason for admission (%).

France 2005. Immigration (gross inflow) according to reason for admission (percent).

PercentStudent Worker Family Other All by area

EEA 3 37 10 50 100 21Non-Europe 26 5 50 19 100 79

All 21 11 42 25 100 100Source: INED

Note: 'Other' includes inactive, retired, refugee. Percent by purpose excludes minors (about 8% of total).Switzerland and Turkey omitted. 12% of total; mostly Turkey, 39% for family reasons.

Long-term migration trends to the United Kingdom 1967 – 2011, UK and non-UK citizens.

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

UK net migration by citizenship 1967 - 2011 (thousands). Note: there are discontinuities in this series from 1991. Source: ONS International Migration Statistics Series

MN, ONS Statistical Bulletin, Migration Statistics 2019.

Foreign citizens

Foreign citizens (post 1991)

UK citizens

UK Citizens (post 1991)

Net migration to selected European countries 1997 – 2011

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Net migration, selected European countries 1997 - 2011, thousands. Source: Eurostat

Denmark

Germany

France

Netherlands

Sweden

United Kingdom

Switzerland

Net migration to Italy and Spain 1997 – 2011. Note: increase primarily due to illegal immigration and regularisation of illegal

residence through amnesties.

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Net migration, Spain and Italy, 1997 - 2011 (thousands). Source: Eurostat.

Spain

Italy

Net migration can go down as well as up. Germany 1954 – 2011.

Migration to Germany 1954 - 2011, by citizenship. Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden. Up to 1990 German Federal Republic only.

- 300 000

- 200 000

- 100 000

-

+ 100 000

+ 200 000

+ 300 000

+ 400 000

+ 500 000

+ 600 000

+ 700 000

+ 800 000

1954

2)

1956

2)

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Net migrationGermans including aussiedlerForeignersGermans without aussiedler net flow

Net migration per thousand population,

selected European countries. Source: Eurostat

Net immigration per thousand population, selected European countries 1990 - 2009. Source: Eurostat.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Net

imm

igra

tion

per

tho

usan

d po

pula

tion

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Germany

Czech Republic

Relative importance of migration and natural change in population growth and decline, Europe 2011.

Crude rate of natural change and crude rate of net migation plus statistical adjustment, selected European countries 2011.

Source: Eurostat.

Ukraine

Russia

Moldova

Georgia

BelarusSerbia

Switzerland

Norway

Iceland

Mac.

Croatia

UKSweden

Finland

Slovak.

Slovenia

Romania

Portugal

Poland

Austria

Netherlands

Malta

Hungary

Italy

France

SpainGreece

Ireland

Estonia

Germany

DenmarkCzech Rep.

Bulgaria

Belgium

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Rate of natural increase per 1000

Rat

e of

net

mig

rati

on p

er 1

000

European comparisons – effect of projected migration levels on projected population size, 2010 compared with 2060. Western and Southern

Europe. Source: Eurostat.

Effect of migration on projected population growth 2010-2060, percent, selected Western and Southern European countries, by descending order of growth without migration.

Source: data from Eurostat 2008 convergence scenario

14.7

35.6

27.3

3.0

24.1

13.7

7.7

-18.8

8.97.2

2.8

-5.2 -5.3

-18.3

-25.3

-28.9

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

France Norway UK Netherlands Belgium Spain Italy Germany

percent population change to 2060 withmigration

percent population change to 2060without migration

European comparisons – effect of projected migration levels on projected

population size, 2010 compared with 2060. Eastern Europe. Source: Eurostat.

Projected percent population change 2010-2060, selected Eastern European countries, with and without migration, sorted by descending order of projected

population size without migration. Source: data from Eurostat 2010 projection.

-17.3

-19.3-20.0

-22.3

-24.7-26.0

-26.7

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Poland CzechRepublic

Slovenia Romania Bulgaria Hungary Latvia

percent projected population change2010-2060 with migration

percent projected population change2010-2060 without migration

Demographic consequences to the UK of projected levels of migration, 2011 - 2061

UK population 2011 - 2061. 2010-based Principal projection and high and low migration variants

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061

OXPOP TFR=1.95, net migration = 240k

ONS High Migration 260k

ONS Principal Projection, TFR = 1.84, migration = 200k

ONS Low migration 140k

ONS natural change only

Age-structure at different levels of net migration, UK 2011 -2086, with constant TFR = 1.84 and falling mortality. Source:

ONS and OXPOP

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2056

2061

2066

2071

2076

2081

2086A

ged

Pot

enti

al S

up

por

t R

atio

183 thousand

90 thousand

40 thousand

25 thousand

zero migration

Retirement age and the PSR, UK 2011 - 2086

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2056

2061

2066

2071

2076

2081

2086A

ged

Pot

enti

al S

up

por

t R

atio

APSR 20-75 (graduated)

APSR 20-69

APSR 15-64

Ethnic change

Continued migration from one population, into another with sub-replacement fertility, must eventually replace one with the other.

If incoming populations have higher fertility, the process will be accelerated.

Migration, not differential fertility, is usually the dominant factor.

Selected European populations, percent of residents born abroad, 2010. Source: Eurostat

16.315.315.2

14.314.013.9

12.712.4

12.011.3

11.111.111.111.0

10.89.0

8.07.5

6.54.44.3

3.81.2

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

EstoniaLatvia

AustriaSweden

SpainBelgium

IrelandSlovenia

GermanyUnited Kingdom

FranceGreece

NetherlandsIcelandNorway

DenmarkItaly

PortugalLithuaniaHungary

FinlandCzech Republic

Poland

Series1

Estimates of foreign origin and immigrant

population, selected European countries. Sources: national statistical offices

Numbers of foreign citizens, and immigrants, enumerated in selected European countries, around 2009

Foreign‘Foreign ‘Foreign ImmigrantsImmigrants citizens as

Population Origin’ Origin’ as percent ofpercent ofMillions (millions) (percent) (millions) total pop. immigrants

Austria 2011 8.4 n.a. n.a 1.00 11.9 92.4Belgium 2007 10.6 n.a n.a 1.38 13.0 70.4Denmark 2011 5.6 0.57 10.2 0.43 7.7 80.7Finland 2010 5.4 n.a n.a 0.25 4.6 67.7France 2008 64.0 n.a n.a 5.34 8.4 69.5Germany 2009 81.9 16.04 19.6 10.60 12.9 67.3N'lands 2011 16.7 3.43 20.6 1.78 10.7 42.7Portugal 2007 10.6 n.a n.a 0.65 6.1 68.9Spain 2007 44.9 n.a n.a 6.00 13.4 72.4Sweden 2009 8.0 1.73 21.7 1.34 16.7 45.1UK 2010 61.4 10.24 16.7 7.14 11.6 62.5

TFR trends of UK ethnic minority populations 1965 – 2006data from Labour Force Survey by own-child method, 7-year moving averages

TFR ethnic minorities, UK 1965 - 2006 from LFS by own-child method; seven-year moving averages

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

19

65

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

White

Black-Caribbean

Black-African

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Chinese

Convergence in fertility: total fertility of Pakistani

women in the UK by birthplace. Source: Coleman and Dubuc 2010.

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99

period

TFR

and

95%

con

fide

nce

inte

rval

Pakistani-born women in UK

All UK Pakistani women

UK-born Pakistani women

Ethnic change in the USA, projected 1999 - 2100

US population 1999 - 2100 Middle Series, ethnic group. Source; US Bureau of the Census 2000.

0.000

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

2053

2056

2059

2062

2065

2068

2071

2074

2077

2080

2083

2086

2089

2092

2095

2098

Hispanic White non-Hispanic Black NH American Indian NH Asian and Pacific NH

A projection of ethnic transformation in the UK 2006 – 2056. TFR = 1.84, net immigration = 180,000 / year. Source: Coleman 2010.

Very long-term ethnic change in the UK in relation to level of

net immigration (+180k, +81k, ‘balanced’ and natural change). Source:

Coleman 2010 Figure 6.

Comparison of results of European ‘foreign-origin’ projections

Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000-2050,

selected countries, as percent of total population.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

per

cen

t

Germany medium variant

USA medium variant (excludes black population)

Netherlands base scenario

Denmark 2002- based medium variant

Sweden foreign background 2004 based

Austria 'Compensating' scenario, no naturalisation.

UK population projection 2051 by age, sex and origin Assumptions for total population as GAD Principal Projection 2006 (net migration 190K;

TFR 1.84)

UK population 2051 projection by age and origin (1000s).Assumptions for total population: migration, TFR as in GAD Principal Projection 2008.

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+

Males British origin Males foreign originFemales British origin Females foreign origin

The faces of the future?

ethnic groups of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001. Source: 2001 Census.

All born in born born in born % of % of

birth- UK overseas UK overseas total non-white

places (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) pop. pop.

All Mixed groups 661.0 524.3 136.7 79.3 20.7 1.3 14.6W/ Black Caribbean 237.4 222.9 14.5 93.9 6.1 0.5 5.3W/ Black African 78.9 52.9 26.0 67.1 32.9 0.2 1.7W/Asian 189.0 144.5 44.6 76.4 23.6 0.4 4.2Other mixed 155.7 104.0 51.7 66.8 33.2 0.3 3.4

Current unions outside own group, Great Britain 1991-96, 1997-02 (percent).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Black-Caribbean

Black-African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese

perc

ent

Women 1991-1996 Women 1997-2002 Men 1991-1996 Men 1997-2002

UK 2006 – 2056. Projected continued growth of mixed ethnic groups without migration. Source: Coleman 2010.

An end to ‘ethnic’ categories? The rise of mixed populations.Probabilistic projections of the UK 2001- 2100, average outcome for major groups

(percent).

UK Version 2 probabilistic projection: mean of percent of each major ethnic group in the total population, 2001 - 2100.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

2095

2100

White

Black

Asian

Mixed

Concluding points

Migration from developing world may be over within a century (?); but effects on ancestry permanent.

Migration the key driver; in theory under policy controlSignificance for social and political change: religion, identity,

segregation, language, law, foreign policy? (depends on numbers, pace, origins, policy).

Integration / assimilation, or ‘community of communities’? And who adapts to whom?

Is ‘parity’ or ‘majority’ important? Inter-ethnic union may change relative group size, eventually

create completely new mixed populations of increasingly ill-defined ancestry.