University of Alaska Southeast Spring 2009 Demographic and Economic Conditions

University of Alaska SoutheastUniversity of Alaska SoutheastSpring 2009Spring 2009

Demographic and Economic Demographic and Economic ConditionsConditions

Southeast Population 2000-2010

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section, Forecast: Academic Affairs22

65,000

67,000

69,000

71,000

73,000

75,000

77,000

2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

F o r e c a s tF o r e c a s t

Southeast Alaska’s College-age Population 2003-2013

Source: Alaska Department of Labor, Research and Analysis33

6.9%

19.1%

33.7%

6.1%

18.5%

30.7%

7.2%

16.8%

32.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

2003 2008 2013

Percent 20-24 olds Percent 25-39 olds Percent 40-54 olds

The traditional age group (18-24) and UAS’s average age group (25-39) are a small % of the southeast population but

that % may improve in the forecast.

Note: Percents do not add to 100 because only ages 20-54 are shown

F o r e c a s tF o r e c a s t

Percent of Southeast PopulationAged 20 to 34 years

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1980 1990 2000 2006 2008

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section55

Southeast Alaska High School EnrollmentsSchool Years 2004-2010

Source: Alaska Department of Education’s Statistics and Reports, Forecast: Academic Affairs

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010

Stu

de

nts

Forecast

44

Percent of 9th Graders who Graduate

AY 2004-2011

Source: Alaska Department of Education’s Statistics and Reports, Forecast: Academic Affairs

60.0%

63.0%

66.0%

69.0%

72.0%

75.0%

2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011

Forecast

88

UAS Student OriginsAY 1998-2008

% of25,956

Juneau 10,530 40.6%Sitka 4,272 16.5%Ketchikan 3,878 14.9%Anchorage 1,878 7.2%Petersburg 1,154 4.4%Wasilla 819 3.2%Wrangell 733 2.8%Haines 693 2.7%Fairbanks 673 2.6%Palmer 580 2.2%All Other Alaska Cities 746 2.9%

Top 10 Resident OriginsAlaskan Cities

 City Students

Nearly 82% of UAS students come from

Southeast Alaska

Source: Banner Closing Extracts

Southeast Alaska Education Level 2000 Population: 25 years and over

Education Level Juneau Ketchikan Sitka

Less than high school graduation 6.8% 9.2% 10.7%

High school graduate or equivalent 23.3% 34.7% 26.8%

Some College 26.6% 30.7% 26.8%

Associate Degrees 6.0% 7.1% 7.7%

Bachelor Degrees 23.5% 12.5% 20.0%

Master Degrees 8.1% 3.2% 6.7%

Professional school degrees 3.8% 2.2% .9%

Doctorate Degrees 1.9% 0.4% 0.4%

Total Number of Students 9,898 4,536 2,816

99Source: 2000 Census Detailed File

Average Unemployment Rate Southeast 2002-2008

Unemployment rates are historically below 5% for Juneau but Southeast Alaska remains high. Forecasts are Southeast to remain the

same and Juneau’s rate to midly increase

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%U

nem

plo

ymen

t R

ate

Alaska Anchorage Juneau Sitka Ketchikan Rest ofSoutheast

Cost of Living continues to increase2007

Cost of Living Index 2007Percentage of Total Living Cost Juneau Anchorage Fairbanks

Composite (100%) 134.5 126.1 132.8

Housing (28%) 150 143.8 147.6

Grocery (13%) 135.8 124.7 122.1

Utilities (10%) 137.8 94 165.6

Transportation (10%) 127.1 110.2 113.6

Healthcare (4%) 144.6 131.7 140.2

Misc. Goods and Service (35%) 121.7 125.4 120.2

Juneau rental and home prices are highest in the state in 2007

City Average Rent  Average Single Family Home

Price

Juneau $1,076 $324,054

Anchorage $906 $310,250

Mat-Su $879 $225,579

Ketchikan $935 $285,493

Alaska average $928 $265,987Source: Alaska Housing Market Indicators Spring 2008. Housing prices reflect the second half of 2007;

A l a s k a v s . S o u t h e a s t Major Industry Employment in 2008

Alaska Southeast66

% Change

2001 2008 2010 2001-08 2008-10

*Goods-Producing 4,300 4,100 4,201 -4.6 % 3.7 %

Retail Trade 4,250 4,750 4,950 10.5 % 5.5 %

Health Services 3,200 3,550 3,900 10.9% 6.8%

Leisure/Hospitality 3,750 3,800 3,850 1.4% 3.1%

Government 13,150 13,400 13,500 1.9% 0.4%

Total 28,650 29,600 30,401 3.3% 2.6%

Education, Health and Retail Industries Lead the Southeast Job’s Forecast

*Includes: Mining, Construction and Manufacturing

Educational and Training Levels Total Openings in Alaska 2006-2016

UAS OPPORTUNITIESUAS OPPORTUNITIES

Associate Degree or

Vocational Training

9.20%

Experience in a Related

Occupation

6.70%

Bachelor's Degree and

Above 20.20%

Moderate to Long-term

On-the-job Training

22.50%

Short-term On-the-job

Training 41.40%

Source: Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development, Research and Analysis

Where are the JobsSoutheast Alaska 2008

0

Federal

State

Local Public School Systems, Public Works,

Social Services, Corrections, Transportation, University of Alaska

Greens Creek, Coeur- d’Alene Mines

Goods-Producing

Retail

Forest Service, Transportation, NOAA

Fred Myer, Safeway, Costco

Health SEARCH, Bartlett Regional Hospital

Westmark, A.T. Adventure, NANALeisure

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development

Bars represent largest employer to smallest

Hot Jobs 2006-2016by UAS Programs

Source: Alaska Department of Labor, ‘Hot Jobs’ w/ Academic Affairs program interpretation

Bachelor's DegreesPercent Growth

Growth in Jobs 2006-2016

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 14.9 399Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Vocational Education 10.1 224Accountants and Auditors 16.7 313Civil Engineers (UAS has 'Pre-Engineer' program) 17.9 147Medical and Health Services Managers 19.2 173Sales Managers 15.0 125Environmental Scientists and Specialists, Including Health 20.1 131Wildlife Biologists 7.8 75Construction Managers 20.0 148

Associate DegreeRegistered Nurses 31.37 1,511Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines 20.3 149Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 18.04 107Environmental Engineering Technicians 36.4 75