National Technical University of Athens (Coordinator) (Coordinator) Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency University Koblenz‐Landau Joint Research Centre European Commission
National Technical University of Athens (Coordinator)(Coordinator)
Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency
University Koblenz‐Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission
National Technical University of Athens (Coordinator)(Coordinator)
Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency
University Koblenz‐Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission
4th International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV2010) Beijing, China, 26-28 October 2010
EU Research on ICT for governance and policy modellingThe CROSSROAD Project and the Future Research Roadmap
Gianluca Misuraca, IPTS Information Society Unit Acknowledgements: CROSSROAD Partners and DG-INGSO/H2 PO
The views expressed by the author are not necessarily those of the EC
OutlineOutline
Rationale for EU Research on ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling
Ongoing Research (ICT WP 2009‐2010 ‐ Obj. 7.3)
CSA – CROSSROADProject’s Overview and Results
Scenarios Design: Digital Europe 2030
Draft Research Roadmap: Grand Challenges
FP7 ICT WP2011‐2012 – Obj. 5.6Principles & Funding Schemes
Next Events & More Information
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
EC FP 7th ICT‐WP 2009‐2010 (Objective 7.3) joins two complementary research fields (traditionally separated):
the Governance and Participation Toolbox (technologies such as mass conversation and collaboration tools); and
the Policy Modelling domain (forecasting, agent‐based modelling, simulation and visualisation)
Aiming at:improving public decision‐making in the age of complexity
making policy‐making and governance more effective and more ‘intelligent’ and
accelerating learning path and implementation in the policy cycle
ICT for governance and policy ICT for governance and policy modellingmodelling??
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
Governments struggle to regulate an increasingly interdependent and complex world, as the financial crisis and other emergencies have shown Citizens are becoming more vocal in monitoring and influencing policy decisionsFuture scenarios are likely to show greater complexity and citizens’ involvementCurrent ICT tools for collaborative governance and policy modelling start to show great opportunities for decision‐making, but they still remain an exception rather than the rule, and research is fragmented between academic fields, application areas, and approaches to innovation (theory vs. practice led)
RationaleRationale
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FP7 ICT WP2009‐10, November 2008:
First call on “ICT for governance and policy modelling”
FP7 ICT WP2009‐10, 1 January 2010
Start of the 8 selected proposals (STREPs ‐ CSA), total funding 15M€
FP7 ICT WP 2011‐12, September 2010
Call 7 launch during ICT2010 (Brussels, 27‐29 September 2010)
Deadline for submissions: 18 January 2011
Ongoing research on ICT for governance and Ongoing research on ICT for governance and policy modellingpolicy modelling
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
CROSSROAD ‐ www.crossroad‐eu.netSupport Action with the aim of developing a Roadmap on future research on ICT for governance and policy Modelling
Coordination & Support Actions
FP7 WP 2009FP7 WP 2009‐‐10: Funded Projects 10: Funded Projects
STREPsCOCKPIT ‐ www.cockpit‐project.eua new governance model for the next‐generation public service deliveryand decision making process, supporting the notion of ‘Open Public Administrations’
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
WE‐GOV ‐ www.wegov‐project.eua toolset to make use of social networking sites to engage citizens in two‐way dialogues as part of the governance and policy‐making process
UbiPOL ‐ www.ubipol.eua ubiquitous platform that allows citizens to be involved in policy making processes regardless of their current locations and time
PADGETS ‐ www.padgets.eumicro web applications (policy gadgets) that will be used to collate and convey inputs from citizens to policy makers, thus facilitating the management of the full policy making cycle
FP7 WP 2009FP7 WP 2009‐‐10: Funded Projects10: Funded Projects
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OCOPOMO ‐ www.ocopomo.euan integrated platform for efficient policy development by integrating formal modelling, scenario generation and open collaborationsupporting the engagement of a wide range of stakeholder groups
+Spaces ‐ www.positivespaces.eunovel technologies and instruments that will allow government bodies to measure public opinion on a large scale by using Virtual Worlds (VWs)as testbeds for policy simulation
IMPACT ‐ www.policy‐impact.euformal, computational models of policy and arguments to facilitate deliberations about policy at a conceptual, language‐independent level
FP7 WP 2009FP7 WP 2009‐‐10: Funded Projects10: Funded Projects
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
A Participative Roadmap for ICT Research in Electronic Governance & Policy Modelling
FP7 ICT WP2009‐2010 Coordination & Support Action – Roadmapping
January – December 2010
CROSSROAD CROSSROAD –– www.crossroadwww.crossroad‐‐eu.neteu.net
National Technical University of Athens (Coordinator)(Coordinator)
Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency
University Koblenz‐Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
The main goal of the CROSSROAD project isto drive the identification of emerging technologies, new governance models and novel application scenarios in the domain of ICT for governance and policy modelling
leading to the structuring of a beyond the state‐of‐the‐art research agenda and roadmap, fully embraced by the research and practice communities
An indirect (but crucial) goal of CROSSROAD is also to build the community of stakeholders and shape the research domain of ICT for governance and policy modelling
GoalGoal
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Obj A ‐ Towards the research community
“Raising awareness and creating consensus among the e‐Governance and ICT research community on new research directions in the field of participation,
governance and policy modelling.”
Obj B ‐ Towards present and future users of research results
“Setting forward‐looking, socio‐technological scenarios for combined governance and ICT applications, exceeding the current state of play and ensuring that the
identified research roadmap responds to then need of present and future users of the research results.”
Obj C ‐ Towards research policy‐makers
“Providing a sustainable decision support tool to policy‐makers for managing the research roadmap and steering research on governance and policy modelling.”
12
ThreeThree‐‐fold Objectivefold Objective
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14
MONTH MONTH 1212
Inputs from WP1: SotA;
WP2 Scenarios;WP3: Gap Analysis
Inputs from Inputs from WP1: WP1: SotASotA; ;
WP2 Scenarios;WP2 Scenarios;WP3: Gap AnalysisWP3: Gap Analysis
RoadmappingRoadmapping Methodological FrameworkMethodological Framework
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D4.3: Roadmap D4.4: Final PolicyRecommendations
15
March 2010 May 2010 July 2010
November 2010 December 2010
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Internal Space:Deliverables
PresentationsTemplates
etc.
Deliberation on:State of the Art
ScenariosGaps
Roadmap
1. COMMUNITY
2. ROADMAP
3. PROJECT
CROSSROAD CROSSROAD Supportive SystemsSupportive Systems
18
Knowledge Base
Public Space:Consortium
Public MaterialNews
EventsContact Us
Experts Scientific
Committee
Public
Consortium
CMS for Project Mngmnt
Supportive Systems DevelopmentSupportive Systems Development
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Supportive Systems ResultsSupportive Systems Results
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Supportive Systems ResultsSupportive Systems Results
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
Experts Scientific CommitteePetra Ahrweiler, University College DublinSteven Bishop, University College London
David Chadwick, University of KentBruce Edmonds, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityEnrico Ferro, Istituto Superiore Mario Boella (ISMB)
Yola Georgiadou, University of TwenteAlan Hartman, IBM Research IndiaJoern Kohlhammer, Fraunhofer IGD
Vittorio Loreto, Sapienza University of RomeWainer Lusoli, IPTS
Carlo Medaglia, Sapienza University of RomeInes Mergel, Syracuse University
José Moreno‐Jimenez, University of ZaragozaLucio Picci, University of Bologna
Jeremy Pitt, Imperial College LondonStefan Steglich, Fraunhofer FOKUS, FAMELjupco Todorovski, University of Ljubljana
Michael Witbrock, CYCORP
21ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
Seville State of Play & Visionary Scenario Design Validation Workshop, 29‐30 April 2010
Samos 2010 Summit on ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling, 6‐9 July 2010
22
DG‐INFSO Constituency Building Workshop Brussels, 13 July 2010
Validation Workshops & Constituency BuildingValidation Workshops & Constituency Building
Research Community Workshop, Lausanne 30 August 2010
ICEGOV 2010, Beijing 25‐28 October 2010Open Government Conference, 15‐16
December 2010
Networking Session on Research Roadmap on ICT for Governance and Policy
Modelling, ICT Events 27 September 2010
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CROSSROAD Research Taxonomy for ICT for CROSSROAD Research Taxonomy for ICT for Governance and Policy Governance and Policy ModellingModelling
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Work conducted by IPTS under CROSSROAD WP2 aiming at developing a visionary scenario analysis based on a foresight exercise to:
identify key areas of expected change in the context of radical different future scenarios anticipate for each scenario, the risks and opportunities offered by ICT tools for governance and policy modelling
The proposed visionary scenarios are instrumentalto develop a shared vision to inspire collaborative and interdisciplinary researchto mobilize the various governance stakeholders in addressing current and future societal challengesto provide inputs to the CROSSROAD Roadmap to provide strategic directions for the future research on ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling
Visionary Scenarios Design: Visionary Scenarios Design: Digital Europe 2030Digital Europe 2030
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Conceptual & Methodological FrameworkConceptual & Methodological Framework
Trends1. 1. IdentifyIdentify TrendsTrends
Key dimension 1: extreme 0
Key dimension 1: extreme 1
Key dimension 2: extreme 1
Key dimension 2: extreme 0
SCENARIO A SCENARIO B
SCENARIO C SCENARIO D
4. 4. DimensionsDimensions combinedcombined to to identifyidentify scenariosscenarios
5. 5. ScenariosScenarios storiesstories and and descriptiondescription
Source: Popper, 2008
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Conceptual & Methodological FrameworkConceptual & Methodological Framework
1. 1. IdentifyIdentify TrendsTrends
Less impact
More impact
Uncertainty low
Uncertainty high
2. 2. ClassificationClassification of trends of trends 5. 5. ScenariosScenarios storiesstories and and
descriptiondescription
Governance/Policy modelling
CivilServants
TransactionalTransactional environmentenvironment
Government
PrivateSector
Technologysuppliers
Civil society organisations ContextualContextual
environmentenvironment
National politics and
policies
Socio-demographicdevelopments
Economics
...........
Research Community
EU policies
technology
Administrativeculture and
attitudes
Otherpractitioners
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Conceptual & Methodological FrameworkConceptual & Methodological Framework
Trends1. 1. IdentifyIdentify TrendsTrends
Less impact
More impact
Uncertainty low
Uncertainty high
2. 2. ClassificationClassification of trends of trends
KEY DIMENSION ONE
KEY DIMENSION TWO 3 . 3 . Extraction of key Extraction of key dimensions of uncertaintiesdimensions of uncertainties
Key dimension 1: extreme 0
Key dimension 1: extreme 1
Key dimension 2: extreme 1
Key dimension 2: extreme 0
SCENARIO A SCENARIO B
SCENARIO C SCENARIO D
4. 4. DimensionsDimensions combinedcombined to to identifyidentify scenariosscenarios
5. 5. ScenariosScenarios storiesstories and and descriptiondescription
Source: Popper, 2008
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010 27
Visionary Scenarios Design FrameworkVisionary Scenarios Design Framework
The key societal, policy and technology‐research trends we are witnessing nowadays can be distilled in two basic uncertainties related to the way the European society and individual member states will shape their policies and research agendas in the future:
the societal value systems we will be living in (more inclusive, open and transparent or exclusive fractured and restrictive), and
the response (partial or complete, proactive or reactive) to theacquisition and integration of policy intelligence techniques insupport of data processing, visualization and simulation for evidence‐based policy modelling
These uncertainties are translated into two key dimensions of impact:
Degree of Openness and Transparency (Axis Y) and
Degree of Integration in Policy Intelligence (Axis X)
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
Envisioning Digital Europe 2030Envisioning Digital Europe 2030
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Application Scenario Storyboard: exampleApplication Scenario Storyboard: exampleOpen Solution for energy efficiency ‐ Friday PM, Seville, hot summer…
Smart‐grid intelligent network in 100% of private and public buildingsdecentralised system of energy source production, distribution and consumption
self programmable network allowing for energy savings and redistribution
guaranteeing optimal delivery of energy at any time according to the needs of users
Developed by local universities and international partners members of an Open Network for Smart Ambient Intelligence
IPTS environmental modelling system open and reusable EU‐wide permitting to turn raw data in real time into reliable and usable information to monitor energy use and impact on the environment
City: make available the open ICT‐enabled platforms and distributed business laboratories where social entrepreneurs can launch experiments and cooperate
Changing role from centralised controller to platform enabler
Emergence of Innovative solutions and new energy services
Users: decide and programme their own consumption needsReducing costs of users
Accommodate users’preferences
Greenhouse emissions are minimized and climate change has been detained Changing lifestyle and contribution by all on solving the climate change issue
International cooperation for ensuring environmental protection
The future of Europe and the entire world is green again… time for Tapas in the Doñana park
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CROSSROAD Vision for Digital Europe 2030CROSSROAD Vision for Digital Europe 2030The Internet will move beyond being a network to connect computers to being a platform that connects everything together... based on virtualization, cloud computing and open standards and applications.. and supported by effective application of AI and augmented reality… giving birth to an Internet of Services embedded into a ‘Smart Ambient Living Space’Open Innovation and collaboration will take place on ordinary base and online communities will be key building blocks in establishing ICT‐enabled governance mechanisms and policy modelling toolkits which provide connection, deliberation, forecasting and processing modules, harnessing genuine political commitment through fully exploiting engagementmethodologies and technologies on a mass‐scaleReputation‐based governance mechanisms will characterize decision‐making processes anchored to principles and mechanisms of freedom of information and reuse of public sector data, also enabling new business opportunities and innovative solutions to improve public service delivery‘Real‐time’ ‘always on’ users coming from current Y‐generation will benefit of unprecedented changes in the use of collaborative ICT and enhanced participation in the building of the European and global Knowledge Society
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Society increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast‐evolving, unpredictable
Governance processes often silos‐based, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over‐simplified
Policies Health R&D Social
Disciplines Economics Mathematics ICT
Actors Government Citizens Industry
33
The challenge: filling the gap between societal The challenge: filling the gap between societal behaviours and governance processesbehaviours and governance processes
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State of the art: research pushState of the art: State of the art: research pushresearch push
Future scenarios:
demand pull
Future Future scenarios: scenarios:
demand pulldemand pullGapsGapsGaps
GrandGrand challenges (draft)challenges (draft)
Research challengesResearch Research challengeschallenges
Research challengesResearch Research challengeschallenges
Research roadmap
(final)
Research Research roadmap roadmap
(final)(final)
34
Methodological approachMethodological approach
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More people involved
More accurate analytical, modelling and simulation tools
More data available
20102010
20302030
35
The opportunity: a paradigm shift in policyThe opportunity: a paradigm shift in policy‐‐makingmaking
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Model-based collaborative governance
ModelModel--based based collaborative collaborative governancegovernance
Data-powered collective
intelligence and action
DataData--powered powered collective collective
intelligence intelligence and actionand action
Government service utilityGovernment Government service utilityservice utility
Science base of ICT enabled governanceScience base of ICT Science base of ICT enabled governanceenabled governance
36
How to get there: 4 Research Grand ChallengesHow to get there: 4 Research Grand Challenges
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StateState
Citizens
Citizens
37
Governance Cycle Governance Cycle vsvs Management CycleManagement Cycle
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GC 3GC 3GC 3
GC 1GC 1
GC 2GC 2
StateState
Citizens
Citizens
38
Governance Cycle Governance Cycle vsvs Management CycleManagement Cycle
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This challenge envisions pervasive system thinking and modelling applied to policy impact assessment thanks to standardization and reusability of models and tools
Model building and simulation would be carried out directly by the responsible civil servants, collaborating with different domain experts and colleagues from other departments
Visual dynamic interface allow users to directly manipulate the simulation parameters and the underlying model
Research Challenges:Integrated, composable and reusable modelsCollaborative modellingEasy access to information and knowledge creationModel validationInteractive simulation Output analysis and knowledge synthesis
39ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
GC1: ModelGC1: Model‐‐based collaborative governancebased collaborative governance
40
Today’s complex societal challenges require wide collaborative action and behavioural change by all stakeholders
Current collaboration tools engage only highly interested people, and rarely enable real action and impact, by citizens and government alike
Challenges to wider participation include information overload, trust in user‐generated data, privacy, debate manipulation, inclusion and representativeness
Research Challenges:Privacy‐compliant participatory sensing for real‐time policy‐makingReal‐time, high‐quality, reusable open government data Federated dynamic identity managementPeer‐to‐peer public opinion mining
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GC2: DataGC2: Data‐‐powered collective intelligence & actionpowered collective intelligence & action
Traditional public services have not delivered their promised added value or lived up to the expectations of citizens and businesses for actual cost‐effective, one stop‐shop provisionsThis challenge aims to prove how Collaboration and Interoperability can turn a “introvert” public sector into a citizen‐oriented one that leverages Future Internet technologies into its everyday operationResearch Challenges:
Intuitive, collaborative visual analytics of data for policy‐makingUser‐generated simulation and gaming tools for public actionNew institutional design of collaborative governanceDigital public services value proposition for all User‐driven innovation shaping Public Services Change the “DNA” of Public ServicesMassive Public Information as a Service
GC3 Government Service UtilityGC3 Government Service Utility
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
Traditional public services have not delivered their promised added value or lived up to the expectations of citizens and businesses for actual cost‐effective, one stop‐shop provisionsThis challenge aims to prove how Collaboration and Interoperability can turn a “introvert” public sector into a citizen‐oriented one that leverages Future Internet technologies into its everyday operationResearch Challenges:
Intuitive, collaborative visual analytics of data for policy‐makingUser‐generated simulation and gaming tools for public actionNew institutional design of collaborative governanceDigital public services value proposition for all User‐driven innovation shaping Public Services Change the “DNA” of Public ServicesMassive Public Information as a Service
GC3 Government Service UtilityGC3 Government Service Utility
The 1‐1‐1 Concept:every service can be provided in one stop, one second, with one euro cost
The 1‐1‐1 Concept:every service can be provided in one stop, one second, with one euro cost
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling appears as a key enablerfor unlocking the full potential of participative decision making which is expected to drive society to a new era of open collaboration between citizens and decision makersYet, this domain is still very much unstructured and unchartered, still at the margin of the decision making processTo shift from a fragmented research field to a scientific domain, it has to be studied and developed as a rigorous scientifically‐sound phenomenon, following scientific practices similar to its neighbouring domains (e.g. Social sciences, Political sciences, Systems/Complexity science, Services science as well as Economic sciences)
Research Challenges:Formal methods and tools for categorising and analysing the concepts, the problems and solution paths in ICT‐enabled governanceMetrics and assessment models, Decision Support, Modelling & Simulation Tools (supporting problem‐solution relation, utilising BPM/BPR tools, vertical approaches)Multi‐disciplinary issues and relations with neighbouring domainsContinuous evolution of the domain to meet new societal challenges
GC4 Science Base of ICTGC4 Science Base of ICT‐‐enabled governanceenabled governance
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Full draft roadmap available and commentable online at www.crossroad‐eu.net
November 30th: publication of final roadmap
Presentation of Final Roadmap at EU Open Government Ministerial Conference, Ghent & Brussels 15‐16 Dec. 2010 (TBC)
44ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
Next building blocksNext building blocks
FP7 WP ICT 2011FP7 WP ICT 2011‐‐12: Objective 5.6 12: Objective 5.6 ““ICT ICT solutions for governance and policy modellingsolutions for governance and policy modelling””
Building on the previous call
Continuity to reinforce research in the domain
Focus
Bigger and wider impact (scaled‐up application)
Stakeholders
International cooperation
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
a) ICT solutions for governance and policy modelling
IP/ STREPs
EUR 7 million/ EUR 17 million
b) Roadmapping & Networking, International Cooperation
• Coordination and Support Actions
• EUR 1 million
FP7 WP ICT 2011FP7 WP ICT 2011‐‐12: Objective 5.6 12: Objective 5.6 Funding SchemesFunding Schemes
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
FP7 Infoday on WP2011‐12 in Madrid, Spain, 26 October 2010
ICT Proposers’ Day 2011 19 ‐ 20 May, Budapest, Networking for European ICT R&D
Encouraged to organise networking events with all relevant stakeholders
Next EventsNext Events
http://ec.europa.eu/ictproposersday
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
More informationMore information
DG‐INFSO/H2
http://ec.europa.eu/egovernance
INFSO‐EGOV‐[email protected]
ICEGOV2010, Beijing, China, 26th October, 2010
National Technical University of Athens (Coordinator)(Coordinator)
Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency
University Koblenz‐Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission
Gianluca Gianluca MisuracaMisuraca, IPTS, [email protected]@ec.europa.eu
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