United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Cotton: World Markets and Trade Circular Series FC-04-03 April 2003 World Stocks at Lowest Level Since 1994/95 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 1,000 bales 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 cent/lbs Australia India Brazil Pakistan R.O.W. U.S. China A-index The April estimate for MY2002/03 has total ending stocks at 36.6 million bales, down 941,000 bales from the March estimate. Stocks tightened this month as use increased and production decreased. Lower stocks are forecast in Pakistan, Egypt, India, Brazil, and China. Ending stocks for 2002/03 are forecast down 21 percent or nearly 10 million bales from 2001/02. Tightening stocks in China account for over one third (3.6 million bales) of the total decrease from 2001/02. Stocks tightened by over one million bales in Australia, India and the United States. Lower stocks are forecast in most producing countries, while stocks in non-production consuming countries are generally stable or down slightly. The tightening stock situation is reflected in the A-index. The 2002/03 average (1 Aug. 2002 to date) is more than 25 percent above last season’s average. Ending stocks for 2002/03 are now forecast at the lowest level since 1994/95 and are down nearly 25 percent from the record 47.9 million bale ending stock level in 1998/99. Much of the decrease in recent years is due to lower stock levels in China. China’s 2002/03 ending stocks are forecast at 9.3 million bales down 28 percent from 2001/02 and down 60 percent from 1998/99. In fact, 2002/03 world-less-China ending stocks are higher than in 1998/99. While U.S. ending stocks for 2002/03 are forecast down 15 percent from the previous year, they are still nearly double the average seen during the 1990's. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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United States Department of Cotton: World Markets and Trade · 2003. 4. 1. · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Cotton: World Markets and Trade
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Australia India Brazil Pakistan R.O.W. U.S. China A-index
The April estimate for MY2002/03 has total ending stocks at 36.6 million bales, down 941,000 bales from the March estimate. Stocks tightened this month as use increased and production decreased. Lower stocks are forecast in Pakistan, Egypt, India, Brazil, and China.
Ending stocks for 2002/03 are forecast down 21 percent or nearly 10 million bales from 2001/02. Tightening stocks in China account for over one third (3.6 million bales) of the total decrease from 2001/02. Stocks tightened by over one million bales in Australia, India and the United States. Lower stocks are forecast in most producing countries, while stocks in non-production consuming countries are generally stable or down slightly. The tightening stock situation is reflected in the A-index. The 2002/03 average (1 Aug. 2002 to date) is more than 25 percent above last season’s average.
Ending stocks for 2002/03 are now forecast at the lowest level since 1994/95 and are down nearly 25 percent from the record 47.9 million bale ending stock level in 1998/99. Much of the decrease in recent years is due to lower stock levels in China. China’s 2002/03 ending stocks are forecast at 9.3 million bales down 28 percent from 2001/02 and down 60 percent from 1998/99. In fact, 2002/03 world-less-China ending stocks are higher than in 1998/99. While U.S. ending stocks for 2002/03 are forecast down 15 percent from the previous year, they are still nearly double the average seen during the 1990's.
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
Further Information Contact:
U.S. Department of AgricultureForeign Agricultural Service
Cotton, Oilseeds, Tobacco, and Seeds DivisionStop 1051
This circular, and other information, can be found at the FAS/COTS Division Internet site: http://www.fas.usda.gov/cots/cotton.html
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Table of Contents
U.S. Cotton Outlook ................................................................................................................... 4World Cotton Outlook ................................................................................................................ 4Cotton Prices............................................................................................................................... 4U.S. Cotton Highlights................................................................................................................ 5
Tables
Table 1. World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade 1997/98-2002/03 (1,000 metric tons) ...... 6Table 2. World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade 1997/98-2002/03 (1,000 480-lb. bales) ... 7Table 3. FY 2000 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs .............................................. 8Table 4. Area, Yield, and Production 2001/02-2002/03 .................................................... 9Table 5. Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/03 (1,000 480-lb. bales) ....10-11Table 5-A. Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2002/03 (1,000 metric tons).......12-13Table 6. Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2001/02 (1,000 480-lb. bales) ....14-15Table 6-A. Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2001/02 (1,000 metric tons)......16-17Table 7. U.S. Export Sales Summary............................................................................... 18Table 8. Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price....................................... 19Table 9. World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization ................................. 20Table 10. United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization ...................... 21Table 11. Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization ............................... 22Table 12. New Independent States Cotton Supply and Demand MY 1991/92-2002/03.... 23Table 13. Summary of Changes 2000/01-2002/03 (1,000 480-lb. bales) .......................... 24
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World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook Marketing Years 2000/2001, 2001/02 and 2002/03
The U.S. estimates for 2001/02 are unchanged this month.
This month's U.S. forecast for 2002/2003 shows only minor changes. The production estimate is raised 61,000 bales, reflecting USDA's March 21 Cotton Ginnings report. Imports are increased 10,000 bales while domestic mill use and exports remained unchanged. Ending stocks are increased slightly at 6.3 million bales.
WORLD COTTON OUTLOOK
The 2001/02 world estimates are unchanged this month.
The 2002/03 forecast includes increased use and trade while production is down slightly compared with last month. Production is decreased by 145,000 bales primarily due to a 200,000-bale decrease in India and 100,000 bales in Pakistan and these were partially offset by a 75,000-bale increase in Syria and 61,000 bales in the U.S. along with other small increases. Forecasted world use is increased by 725,000 bales, which includes a 500,000-bale increase in China, 200,000 bales in Pakistan and 150,000 bales in Egypt. These increases are partially offset by a 100,00-bale decrease in each of India, Russia and Turkey, along with other small changes. Imports are increased 260,000 bales primarily due to an increase of 350,000 bales in China, 125,000 bales in Taiwan and 100,000 bales in Thailand with smaller increases elsewhere. Decreases in imports of 200,000 bales in each of Brazil and India and 100,000 bales in Russia partially offset the increase. Forecast exports are up by 360,000 bales from last month, with a 200,000-bale increase in Egypt and 75,000 bales in Pakistan with other small increases which are partially offset by small decreases. World ending stocks are decreased by 941,000 bales.
COTTON PRICES The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In March, the index averaged 61.04 cents per pound, up 2.79 cents from February's average. In New York, the May futures contract settlement price fell 0.58 cents between the end of February and the end of March, closing at 57.71 cents per pound on March 31.
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U.S. Cotton Consumption and StocksFebruary January
Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption 27,918 bales 28,267 bales
Total bales consumed per month 573,073 696,148 Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption
rate 7.29 million
bales 7.38 million
bales Active spindles 2.65 million 2.64 million
% Spindles dedicated to 100% cotton 57% 57% Cotton’s share of total fibers consumed on
spindle system 81.10% 80.90%
U.S. cotton stocks on hand at mills 460,269 bales
452,354 bales
Stocks held in public storage and compresses 13.51 million bales
15.12 million bales
Source: Census Bureau
U.S. Highlights
TEXTILE MILL REPORT: Domestic mill buyers bought a light volume of 2002-crop cotton for May through August delivery. Demand was good for higher white color grades with staple 34 and longer, mike 37-45 and strength 26 and higher. Demand was moderate for lower color grades with mike 50-52. Interest in 2003-crop cotton was moderate, and a light volume of cotton was booked. Other mill buyers bought more raw cotton to meet production needs required by sales of finished goods. Most mills operated on a five to six day production schedule.
U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $208 million or 782 thousand bales in January according to Census data, down from $219 million or 946 thousand bales in December. Mexico was the largest destination in January, closely followed by Turkey accounting for $32 million (44 thousand bales) and $30 million (44 thousand bales), respectively.
U.S. COTTON IMPORTS rose to $3 million (8,116 thousand bales) in January from $2.8 (7,036 bales) million in December. Egypt accounted for almost all imports in both months.
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Table 1World Cotton Supply, Use, and Trade
1997/98 - 2002/03 (Season Beginning August 1)In 1,000 Metric Tons
1/ Includes Cottton, Cotton Yarn, and Cotton Fabric.2/ Total Cotton Registrations includes registrations and/or cancellations from Oct 1, 2002.3/ Net registrations for period ending.4/ Number in parenthesis is maximum term in months.5/ Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama.6/ Korea has a total Credit Guarantee of $575 million, of which $100 million is allocated specifically for cotton.7/ Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand
9/ Romania and Bulgaria.NOTES: Registrations current as of March 28, 2003 Apr-03
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Table 4 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production
World and Selected Countries and Regions Area (1,000 Ha) Yield (KG/Ha) Production (1,000 Bales)
World Total 46,457 87,844 29,820 164,121 97,799 27 29,671 36,624
* Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number.
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Table 5A
Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by CountryMY 2002/2003
World Total 10,115 19,126 6,493 35,734 21,293 6 6,460 7,974
* Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number.
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Table 6
Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by CountryMY 2001/2002
World Total 42,442 98,349 29,294 170,085 94,529 57 29,042 46,457
* Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number.
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Table 6A
Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by CountryMY 2001/2002
World Total 9,241 21,413 6,378 37,032 20,581 12 6,323 10,115
* Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number.
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Table 7: U.S. Export Sales Summary
Monthly Export Sales for 3-Week Period
March 6 - March 27 (1,000 Running Bales)
Region/Country Pima All Upland >1-1/16"
---------Upland--------
1" to 11/16" < 1"
EUROPEAN UNION OTHER WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE FORMER SOVIET UNION JAPAN TAIWAN CHINA KOR REP INDIA OTHER ASIA AND OCEANIA AFRICA WESTERN HEMISPHERE UNKNOWN TOTAL
1. The A-Index is the average of the five lowest quotes of the following descriptions (all 1-3/32"): Memphis Terr.; Calif. Ariz; Mexico; Central America; Paraguayan; Turkish; Uzbeki; Pakistani 1503; Indian H-4; Chinese Type 329; West African; Tanzanian; Greek; Syrian; and Australian. 2. Reflects incorporation of forward shipment quotations but does not include the Secretary's discretionary adjustmen Averages for August 1998 and forward reflect 1998/99 quotations; others are 1997/98 quotations SOURCE: Cotlook, Ltd. United Kingdom
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World
1,000 Hectare
Begining Stocks
Production Ending Stocks
LossImports Consumption
Yield Kg/Ha
Total Supply
Exports
Cotton Production, Yield, Supply and UtilizationTable 9
Note: Beginning with 1970/71, world and foreign import and export totals were expanded to include trade among the 12 countries of the former Soviet Union and the 3 Baltic states.
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United States
1,000 Hectare
Begining Stocks
Production Ending Stocks
LossImports Consumption
Yield Kg/Ha
Total Supply
Exports
Cotton Production, Yield, Supply and UtilizationTable 10
Note: Beginning with 1970/71, world and foreign import and export totals were expanded to include trade among the 12 countries of the former Soviet Union and the 3 Baltic states.
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Foreign
1,000 Hectare
Begining Stocks
Production Ending Stocks
LossImports Consumption
Yield Kg/Ha
Total Supply
Exports
Cotton Production, Yield, Supply and UtilizationTable 11
Note: Beginning with 1970/71, world and foreign import and export totals were expanded to include trade among the 12 countries of the former Soviet Union and the 3 Baltic states.
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Table 12New Independent States (NIS) Supply and Demand
1/ Reflects only trade among the 12 countries of the former Soviet Union and three Baltic States.2/ Reflects NIS trade with external trading partners.3/ Estimate.4/ Projection.
Notes:A: Adding internal and external trade will provide a total trade figure. B: Ending stocks may include any loss that has occurred.C: The NIS includes: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Byelarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia,
Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.
Source: USDA/FAS/COTS
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Table 13. Summary of Changes in Estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)
Area Yield Beginning EndingMarketing Year
Harvested Kg/Ha Stocks Production Imports Use Loss Exports Stocks Argentina