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12:00 P.M.
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Production - Annual
Grain Stocks
Rice Stocks
Cotton Ginnings
Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings
January Crop ProductionExecutive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief
Crops Branch
January 12, 2018
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
Field Crops Stocks Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops
Corn Corn Citrus Potatoes
Soybeans Soybeans Sweet Potatoes
All Cotton Sorghum Peppermint Oil
Sorghum Rice Spearmint Oil
Rice Hay Hops
Hay & Forage All Wheat Taro (Hawaii)
Peanuts Barley
Proso Millet Oats
Minor Oilseeds
Sugarcane
Sugarbeets
Tobacco
Pulse Crops
Winter Wheat
Contents
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
December Ag Survey Off-Farm Grain Stocks
Survey Type Farmer Reported Off-Farm Grain Stock Facilities
Collection MethodMail, Phone, Internet,
Personal Interview
Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal
Interview
Crops Included Field Crops
Corn, Soybeans, All Wheat,
Durum Wheat, Barley, Oats,
Sorghum, Pulse Crops
States All except HI All except AK, HI, and NV
Sample Size 81,782 ~8,500
Collection Period Nov 29 – Dec 19 Nov 29 – Dec 20
Survey Overview
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Principal Crops Planted AcreageUnited States
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
Year Principal CropsChange From
Previous Year
Million Acres
2008 325.6 +5.3
2009 319.0 -6.6
2010 315.4 -3.6
2011 314.3 -1.1
2012 324.3 +10.0
2013 324.9 +0.6
2014 326.4 +1.5
2015 319.0 -7.5
2016 319.2 +0.3
2017 319.1 -0.1
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319
303
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
325
330
335
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Million AcresPrincipal Crops
United States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Corn
Planted Mil Ac 90.2 -0.3 -4.1
Harvested Mil Ac 82.7 -0.5 -4.7
Yield Bu/Ac 176.6 +0.7 +1.1
Production Bil Bu 14.6 +0.2 -3.6
Stocks Bil Bu 12.5 NA +1.1
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176.6
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Bushels per AcreCorn for Grain Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
13.5
13.7
13.9
14.1
14.3
14.5
14.7
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels2017 United States Corn ProductionTrade Analyst Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
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14.3
13.7
14.7
14.1 13.4
11.7
14.7
15.4
15.3
16.9 16.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18
Billion BushelsCorn Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
12.1
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.6
12.7
December
Billion Bushels
2017 United States Corn StocksTrade Analysts Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Soybeans
Planted Mil Ac 90.1 -0.1 +8.0
Harvested Mil Ac 89.5 +0.1 +8.3
Yield Bu/Ac 49.1 -0.8 -5.6
Production Bil Bu 4.39 -0.8 +2.2
Stocks Bil Bu 3.16 NA +8.9
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49.1
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Bushels per AcreSoybean Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
Page 15
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
4.15
4.20
4.25
4.30
4.35
4.40
4.45
4.50
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
2017 United States Soybean ProductionTrade Analysts Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
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3.253.17
3.50 3.48
3.313.21
3.50
4.024.12
4.49
4.69
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18
Billion BushelsSoybean Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
2.95
3.00
3.05
3.10
3.15
3.20
3.25
3.30
3.35
December
Billion Bushels
2017 United States Soybean StocksTrade Analysts Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
All Cotton
Planted Mil Ac 12.6 -0.1 +25.2
Harvested Mil Ac 11.3 -0.5 +19.4
Yield Lb/Ac 899 -0.3 +3.7
Production Mil Bls 21.3 -0.8 +23.8
Cottonseed
Production Mil Tons 6.73 -0.9 +25.3
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899
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Pounds per AcreAll Cotton Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Sorghum
Planted Mil Ac 5.63 -1.5 -15.9
Harvested Mil Ac 5.05 -0.1 -18.1
Yield Bu/Ac 72.1 +2.4 -7.4
Production Mil Bu 364 +2.3 -24.2
Stocks Mil Bu 226 NA -26.9
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Rice
Planted Mil Ac 2.46 -1.0 -21.8
Harvested Mil Ac 2.37 -0.7 -23.3
Yield Lbs/Ac 7,507 +0.6 +3.7
Production Mil Cwt 178 -0.1 -20.5
Stocks Mil Cwt 120 NA -25.4
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233228
245
273
227
236
220
249
235
263
217
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18
Million HundredweightRough Rice Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Aug
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
All Hay
Harvested Mil Ac 53.8 +0.5 +0.6
Yield Tons/Ac 2.44 -0.8 -3.2
Production Mil Tons 131 -0.3 -2.6
Stocks Mil Tons 86.2 NA -10.0
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Production
All Other Hay Mil Tons 76.4 +0.7 -0.4
Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 55.1 -1.7 -5.5
Proso Millet Mil Bu 14.6 NA +16.0
Peanuts Bil Lbs 7.23 -5.3 +29.6
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Production
Canola Bil Lbs 3.12 +11.2 +1.0
Flaxseed Mil Bu 3.84 NA -55.6
Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 60.3 NA -37.4
Rapeseed Mil Lbs 20.8 NA +7.4
Safflower Mil Lbs 180 NA -17.7
Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.17 +19.8 -18.2
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Production
Sugarcane Mil Tons 32.2 +0.4 +0.4
Sugarbeets Mil Tons 35.3 -2.0 -4.3
All Tobacco Mil Lbs 710 -1.9 +13.0
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Production
A. Winter Peas Thou Cwt 125 -10.1 -72.8
Dry Peas Mil Cwt 14.2 -7.7 -48.9
Dry Beans Mil Cwt 35.8 +1.5 +24.9
Lentils Mil Cwt 7.48 +0.3 -41.5
Wrinkled Seed Thou Cwt 357 NA -18.7
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Production
Potatoes Mil Cwt 441 <+0.1 <-0.1
Sweet Potatoes Mil Cwt 35.6 NA +13.0
Peppermint Oil Mil Lbs 5.78 NA +1.1
Spearmint Oil Mil Lbs 2.80 NA -12.8
Taro (Hawaii) Mil Lbs 3.69 NA +5.2
Hops Mil Lbs 104 NA +19.8
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
2017 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Estimate Year
Stocks
All Wheat Bil Bu 1.87 NA -9.9
Barley Mil Bu 155 NA -19.4
Oats Mil Bu 66.8 NA -11.5
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2.51
2.822.87
3.14
2.86
2.99
2.85
2.62
2.81
3.28
2.92
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18
Billion BushelsAll Wheat Stocks
United States
Supply Sep Dec Mar Jun
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
1.78
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.86
1.88
1.90
1.92
December
Billion Bushels2017 United States All Wheat StocksTrade Analyst Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
Page 34
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
Winter Wheat Seedings
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Wheat, Winter
Planted Mil Ac 32.6 NA -0.3
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32.6
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Million AcresWinter Wheat Acres
United States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
Page 37
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
December March June Final
Million Acres
2018 United States Winter Wheat AcresTrade Analysts Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
Survey OverviewFlorida Citrus
Objective Measurement
Survey Type Field Measurement
Crops Included Oranges, Grapefruit, Tangerines
Sample Size 1,732 groves
Collection Period December 11-22
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
January 2018 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit January Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Production
Oranges Mil Tons 3.99 +0.2 -22.8
Grapefruit Thou Tons 530 -8.3 -22.3
Lemons Thou Tons 870 -3.8 -1.8
Tangerines &
MandarinsThou Tons 881 -8.5 -14.7
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USDA-NASS
1-12-18
Release Date Report Title
January 22 Cotton Ginnings
January 26 Cattle on Feed
January 30 Agricultural Prices
January 31Cattle
Sheep and Goats
February 1
CAIR: Cotton System
CAIR: Fats and Oils
CAIR: Flour Millings
CAIR: Grain Crushings
February 8Cotton Ginnings
Crop Production
February 22County Estimates
Corn, Soybeans, Sorghum, Sunflower
Upcoming Reports
Page 41
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
Page 42
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
Page 43
USDA-NASS
1-12-18
Page 44
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov
For Questions202-720-2127
800-727-9540
[email protected]