United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA Circular Series FOP 06 - 10 June 2010 Turkey 2009/10 Imports Return to Near Record But United States Loses Market Share Turkey’s imports during the first nine months of 2009/10 have rebounded sharply as the global economic situation improved, textile demand grew, and Turkish spinners looked for more cotton. Very tight domestic supplies forced spinners into the import market, and as a result, imports in recent months have reached near record levels. U.S. cotton has not benefited from the recent surge in the import demand; the U.S. share in the first three quarters dropped below 50 percent. The surge came at a time when U.S. stocks have fallen to their lowest level in 15 years, limiting the potential to capture this increased demand. Historically, the United States has maintained over a 60 percent market share of Turkish imports. Cotton: World Markets and Trade
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United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
Circular Series FOP 06 - 10 June 2010
Turkey 2009/10 Imports Return to Near Record
But United States Loses Market Share
Turkey’s imports during the first nine months of 2009/10 have rebounded sharply as the global economic situation improved, textile demand grew, and Turkish spinners looked for more cotton. Very tight domestic supplies forced spinners into the import market, and as a result, imports in recent months have reached near record levels. U.S. cotton has not benefited from the recent surge in the import demand; the U.S. share in the first three quarters dropped below 50 percent. The surge came at a time when U.S. stocks have fallen to their lowest level in 15 years, limiting the potential to capture this increased demand. Historically, the United States has maintained over a 60 percent market share of Turkish imports.
Cotton: World Markets and Trade
Prices U.S spot prices have leveled off in recent weeks. However, the A-Index has continued to climb during May and into June. TRADE CHANGES IN 2010/11 Major Importers:
• Turkey is raised 300,000 bales to 3.0 million as stronger domestic demand is expected to carry through from the current season.
• Mexico is lowered 100,000 bales to 1.5 million due to increased domestic supply.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2009/10 Major Exporters:
• India is raised 200,000 bales to 6.4 million as export restrictions are relaxed.
• United States is raised 250,000 bales to 12.25 million on strong global demand.
Major Importers:
• Turkey is raised 300,000 bales to 3.9 million on stronger domestic demand and extremely limited domestic stocks.
• China is raised 800,000 bales to 10.8 million due to increased purchase activity.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
June 2010
Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month
(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)
Country Mktg Year Area
Harvested
Beginning
Stocks
Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.
Cons.
Ending
Stocks
Australia
-50000500000 2009/10
15000000200-500 2010/11
Azerbaijan
-10000100000 2009/10
-5000-500-100 2010/11
Benin
-20000200000 2010/11
Brazil
-10000000-10000 2009/10
-850002002150-1000 2010/11
Burkina
-25000250000 2010/11
Cameroon
-5-50-5100000 2009/10
0-50-5000-50 2010/11
China
8000000800000 2009/10
8000000008000 2010/11
Colombia
-1400000-1401 2008/09
-4-100-10000-140 2009/10
6-100-10000-40 2010/11
Egypt
-50000500000 2009/10
-50000000-500 2010/11
Greece
000050050020 2010/11
India
-2000002000000 2009/10
-30000010000-2000 2010/11
Israel
0000-80-80-3 2009/10
-3000-300-330-6 2010/11
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
June 2010
Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)
(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)
Country Mktg Year Area
Harvested
Beginning
Stocks
Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.
Cons.
Ending
Stocks
Kazakhstan
-100006005000 2009/10
-3500000-25-10-10 2010/11
Mexico
-25000250000 2009/10
-350000-10090-2517 2010/11
Pakistan
-15025002500010000 2009/10
-4503000300000-1500 2010/11
Peru
200000203 1996/97
100000-1215 1997/98
100000015 1998/99
-100000-211 1999/00
-200000-1-18 2000/01
0000002-22 2001/02
000000006 2002/03
-100000-106 2003/04
5600600165-1-1 2004/05
21000100009757 2005/06
47507500772-4 2006/07
-777507500-64-22 2007/08
-420000035-77-3 2008/09
-170000-2045-422 2009/10
-7250250-2055-175 2010/11
Sudan
40000850125075 2010/11
Tajikistan
0000-250-250-5 2010/11
Turkey
-200200020000000 2007/08
-4002000200000-2000 2008/09
-4253000300253000-4000 2009/10
-225100010003000-4250 2010/11
Turkmenistan
-25000250000 2009/10
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
June 2010
Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)
(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)
Country Mktg Year Area
Harvested
Beginning
Stocks
Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.
Cons.
Ending
Stocks
-25000000-250 2010/11
United States
-200-50-5002500000 2009/10
-200000000-2000 2010/11
Uzbekistan
-50000-500-10000 2009/10
-50000000-500 2010/11
Zimbabwe
-25000250000 2009/10
-25000000-250 2010/11
World
World
200000203 1996/97
100000-1215 1997/98
100000015 1998/99
-100000-211 1999/00
-200000-1-18 2000/01
0000002-22 2001/02
000000006 2002/03
-100000-106 2003/04
5600600165-1-1 2004/05
21000100009757 2005/06
47507500772-4 2006/07
-277275027500-64-22 2007/08
-45620002000021-277-2 2008/09
-546485-505356721,080-13-456-1 2009/10
-5444100410420395437-54696 2010/11
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
June 2010
Table 01 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)
(1000 MT)
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
May
2010/11
Jun
2010/11
Production none
7,729 China 8,056 7,991 7,076 7,185 7,185
4,746 India 5,225 4,921 5,117 5,443 5,443
4,700 United States 4,182 2,790 2,654 3,636 3,636
2,155 Pakistan 1,938 1,960 2,155 2,286 2,286
1,524 Brazil 1,602 1,193 1,252 1,481 1,481
1,165 Uzbekistan 1,165 1,002 871 1,002 1,002
294 Australia 139 327 348 435 479
4,258 Other 3,830 3,218 2,930 3,328 3,379
26,573 Total 26,138 23,400 22,403 24,796 24,891
USE Dom. Consumption none
10,886 China 11,104 9,580 10,342 10,669 10,669
3,941 India 4,050 3,865 4,246 4,442 4,442
2,613 Pakistan 2,613 2,449 2,504 2,482 2,547
1,589 Turkey 1,350 1,110 1,219 1,176 1,197
996 Brazil 1,002 914 958 1,002 1,002
697 Bangladesh 762 816 871 925 925
1,074 United States 998 781 740 718 718
5,157 Other 4,976 4,421 4,469 4,514 4,516
26,953 Total 26,854 23,937 25,349 25,927 26,017
Imports none
2,305 China 2,510 1,523 2,351 2,504 2,504
686 Bangladesh 762 827 871 925 925
877 Turkey 711 636 849 588 653
479 Indonesia 501 435 457 479 479
502 Pakistan 851 425 370 414 414
415 Thailand 420 349 392 392 392
213 Vietnam 263 267 370 386 386
2,809 Other 2,471 2,079 2,111 2,090 2,111
8,286 Total 8,489 6,541 7,772 7,778 7,865
Exports none
2,833 United States 2,973 2,891 2,667 2,939 2,939
994 India 1,531 514 1,393 1,241 1,263
980 Uzbekistan 914 653 827 784 784
283 Brazil 486 596 414 435 479
464 Australia 265 261 397 403 403
272 Greece 283 174 191 212 223
174 Turkmenistan 180 131 234 207 207
2,115 Other 1,757 1,345 1,553 1,557 1,572
8,114 Total 8,388 6,566 7,676 7,778 7,870
Ending Stocks none
4,471 China 4,464 4,870 4,494 3,879 4,053
1,669 India 1,444 2,161 1,769 1,709 1,644
1,177 Brazil 1,361 1,087 1,022 1,138 1,120
1,061 Pakistan 1,173 1,021 874 966 868
2,064 United States 2,188 1,380 631 653 610
446 Turkey 425 360 350 297 248
257 Australia 131 202 161 212 245
2,628 Other 2,444 2,571 2,066 2,061 2,010
13,773 Total 13,631 13,651 11,366 10,915 10,797
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
June 2010
Table 02 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)
(1000 Bales)
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
May
2010/11
Jun
2010/11
Production none
1,350 Australia 640 1,500 1,600 2,000 2,200
7,000 Brazil 7,360 5,480 5,750 6,800 6,800
35,500 China 37,000 36,700 32,500 33,000 33,000
21,800 India 24,000 22,600 23,500 25,000 25,000
9,900 Pakistan 8,900 9,000 9,900 10,500 10,500
21,588 United States 19,207 12,815 12,188 16,700 16,700
5,350 Uzbekistan 5,350 4,600 4,000 4,600 4,600
19,558 Other 17,593 14,781 13,456 15,284 15,521
122,046 Total 120,050 107,476 102,894 113,884 114,321