United NationsUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division Measuring Hard-to-Count Migration Populations: Importance, Definitions,

United NationsUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division

Measuring Hard-to-Count Migration Populations: Importance,

Definitions, and Categories

Jason Schachter

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics

Geneva, Switzerland, October 17-19

Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 2

Goals of Project

Suitland Working Group Task Force • Relevance of hard-to-count migrants in

different countries • Compare definitions of hard-to-count

migrants at the national and international level

• Factors that influence the data collection of hard-to-count migrant populations

April 19, 2023


In Relation to Household Surveys

To what extent do countries use surveys to measure hard-to-count migrants.

How can household surveys be used to measure these populations• Sampling rare and elusive populations

What survey questions are needed to identify hard-to-count migrants

April 19, 2023


Who are Hard-to-Count Migrants?

Short-term migrants Circular migrants Irregular migrants Transit migrants Trafficked person Refugees Asylum seekers

April 19, 2023


UNECE Questionnaire on International Migration Statistics

Questions from Section 2: “Practices/Methodologies used to estimate “difficult to measure”international migrant groups”• Conducted in 2008

UNECE and other countries – 49 responses

April 19, 2023


Questions on… Relevance attributed to each group If measurement is an issue (i.e. data are not

available or are not sufficiently accurate) If NSO is responsible for producing

counts/estimates on these populations and methodology used

Data source and definition used to identify group Information on if other government agency/

institutions provide estimates

April 19, 2023


Short-Term Migrants

“A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least 3 months but less than a year (12 months), except in cases where the movement to that country is for purpose of recreation, holiday, visits to friends or relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage. For purposes of international migration statistics, the country of usual residence of short-term migrants is considered to be the country of destination during the period they spend in it.” (UN 1998)

April 19, 2023


Questionnaire Results Most frequently collected Fair amount of deviation from the international

definition In the few cases minimum length of stay (in and/or

out of the country) was mentioned, large amount of variation (e.g. two weeks to six months).

Better adherence to maximum duration of stay (12 months)

Some consider intended residence while others use actual residence

Purpose of movement rarely included

April 19, 2023


Circular Migrants

“Circular Migration is the fluid movement of people between countries, including temporary or more permanent movement which, when it occurs voluntarily and is linked to the labour needs of countries of origin and destination, can be beneficial to all involved.” (GFMD 2007)

April 19, 2023


Questionnaire Results No NSO measured or provided a definition used to

identify circular migrants (circa 2008) By its nature, circular migration is difficult to measure

as short-term residence may be subject to little or no administrative recording, particularly if permission to reside has already been granted in the context of a previous stay.

Operationalization: • Duration of stay in destination country• Frequency of repeated movements• Purpose of migration

April 19, 2023


Irregular/Undocumented Migrants

“Persons in a state other than their own who have not fully satisfied the conditions and requirements set forth by that State to enter, stay, or work in that State's territory.” (ILO 1997)

April 19, 2023


Questionnaire Results Only four countries provided an operational definition Romania EC Regulation no. 862/2007, “third-country

nationals refused entry to the Member State’s territory at the external border” and “third-country nationals found to be illegally present in the Member State’s territory under national laws relating to immigration.”

Other definitions similar to the international standards• Israel: employment a necessary condition for

irregular status.

April 19, 2023


Transit Migrants

“A person who migrates in one country with the intention of seeking the possibility there to emigrate to another country as the country of final destination.” (UNECE 1993)

April 19, 2023


Questionnaire Results

No countries provided a definition or attempt to measure

Operationalization: • repetition of international migration • intention to move onwards

does not necessarily correspond to an actual move

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Trafficked persons “The recruitment, transportation, transfer,

harbouring or receipt of persons, by the means of threat or use of force or other forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, of deception, of the abuse of power or of a position of vulnerability or of the giving or receiving of payments or benefits to achieve the consent of a person having control over another person, for the purpose of exploitation.” (UN 2000)

April 19, 2023


Smuggling “The procurement, in order to obtain,

directly or indirectly, a financial or other material benefit, of the illegal entry of a person into a state of which he/she is not a national or a permanent resident. Illegal entry means the crossing of borders without complying with the necessary requirements for legal entry into the receiving State.” (UN 2000)

April 19, 2023


Questionnaire Results Trafficking is restricted to situations in which people

are deceived, threatened, or coerced in situations of exploitation

Smuggling implies a migrant voluntarily uses services to circumvent immigration restrictions (not necessarily a victim of deception or exploitation)

Three countries indicated a definition for trafficked migrants

• Romania refers to EC Regulation No. 862/2007• Kyrgyzstan reported a definition close to the international standards• Slovakia counts both foreigners and nationals who declare themselves

victims of trafficking, either inside the country or abroad (for nationals)

April 19, 2023


Asylum seekers

“Persons who file an application for asylum in a country other than their own. They remain in the status of asylum-seeker until their application is considered and adjudicated.” (UN 1998)

April 19, 2023



Eleven countries provided definitions In most cases, as per the international definition,

asylum seekers are foreigners who have applied for refugee status and are awaiting a response

Four countries (Canada, Russia, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom) include persons who do not fulfil the requirements of the Geneva Convention, but for whom an expulsion would constitute a serious threat to life or personal safety and/or freedom

April 19, 2023


Refugees

“A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it” (UNHCR, 1967).

April 19, 2023



Almost all countries reported a definition in-line with UNHCR, though some utilize the broader interpretation to include asylum applicants under international protection.

Croatia counts refugees as part of its usual resident population

Palestinian Authority focuses on national refugees living abroad

April 19, 2023


Data Sources Censuses and population registers, visa and border control

data, as well as some household and passenger surveys Short-term migrants & refugees most frequent Circular and transit migrants least frequent (almost no

cases of either) Short-term migrants: largest proportion (40%) came from

population or administrative registers, while other sources included censuses, border data, visa information, and surveys

Irregular migrants and/or trafficked persons: border control information, police reports, and NGOs

April 19, 2023

Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division Slide 23April 19, 2023

Table 1: Number of countries and sources used to provide counts or estimates of hard-to-count migrant groupsNote: Countries could provide more than one source per migrant group


Relevance of Group and Difficulty of Estimation, All Countries

65.3%

53.1%51.0% 51.0%

36.7%

26.5%

14.3%16.3%

67.3%

44.9%

18.4%16.3%

46.9%

24.5%

30.6% 30.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Irregular Short-term Refugees Asylum Trafficked Minors Transit Circular

group is relevant

provision of estimate isan issue


Country-Specific Relevance and Difficulties in Estimation of Irregular Migration

April 19, 2023


Factors that Influence the Difficulty of Measuring Hard-to-Count Migrants

Data issues• Lack of data due to nature of their migration

(fewer formalized administrative records; illegal residence)

• Data sources lack specific information needed to measure (migration history information; duration of stay )

• Lack of coverage/response for populations of interest

(limited population register coverage; higher survey non-response rates)

April 19, 2023


Factors, cont.

Statistical Office might have difficulty accessing administrative data from other national organizations

Data already produced by another organization

Lack of relevance for a country (in terms of size and/or policy)

April 19, 2023


Use of Sample Surveys to Measure Hard-to-Count Migrants

Few countries use sample surveys to derive estimates of hard-to-count migrant populations.

Short-term migrants • Moldova’s labor force survey• Portugal’s emigration survey• United Kingdom’s International Passenger Survey

(not a household survey)

April 19, 2023


Sampling Rare and Elusive Populations Sophisticated sampling techniques can be used to capture rare

populations Probability methods: each sampling unit has an equal chance of

being selected• Dual-sampling (disproportionate): locate sampling units with a high

proportion of migrants (either using pre-existing data, like a census, or sampling areas to discover them), then oversample in these units

Non-probability methods • Adaptative or snowball techniques

Can suffer from lack of generalizability due to their non-random nature.

Can combine probability and non-probability methods (e.g. initial sample is selected randomly, and then ask for references) to obtain

estimates of rare populations.

April 19, 2023


Even if Sampled, Data Quality Concerns Remain! Lower response rates

• Higher levels of item non-response (particularly to more sensitive question like legal status or income)

• Potentially differing response rates by mode of survey (e.g. lower response of hard-to-count migrant groups to internet-based surveys)

• Impact of language ability on response rates and answers given

• Survey attrition (longitudinal)• Imputation rates

April 19, 2023


Examples of Survey Questions to Identify Hard-to-Count Migrant Populations

Even if surveys are not used for estimation, they can be used to identify migrant groups

Based on international defintions, what pieces of information are needed?

April 19, 2023


Short-Term Migrants

Exact duration of stay (in country of residence) or date of entry

For greater clarification:• Purpose of movement• Intent of duration of stay

April 19, 2023


Duration of Stay: Italy LFS (2011) In what year did you come to live in Italy the first time? Do you remember the month? Since that time, have you always been living in Italy?

Please exclude travels or holidays away from Italy of a period of time shorter than one year

Since when have you been living in Italy without leaving the Country for one year or more?

Do you remember the month?

April 19, 2023


Intended Duration of Stay: UK International Passenger Survey (2012)How long do you intend to stay in the UK?Under 12 months .................. 1Up to 2 years ........................ 2Up to 4 years ........................ 3Permanently > 4 years .......... 4Not sure how many years ..... 6DK, possibly 12 months ........ Purpose of Move: Russian Federation 2010 CensusWhat is the purpose of your arrival to Russia?работа (work)учеба (study)служебная или деловая поездка (official or business trip)лечение (medical treatment)туризм, отдых (tourism, recreation)транзитная миграция (transit migration)другая цель → (other purpose)Запишите какая Specify


Circular migration

Migration history (for at least two most recent international moves)

Duration of stay Purpose of movement

April 19, 2023


Migration History: Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (2008) SECTION 1B. MIGRATION HISTORY After you have completed age 12, have you ever changed your place of

residence at least for 6 months? (Yes, No) Now I wish to talk about all the different places of residences you have

lived in for at least 6 months after you have completed age 12. Can you tell me the places you have lived in since then, starting from the one you were living at the age of 12?

In which province were you living? When you were living there was this place a province centre, a district

centre, a sub-district or village? Or was it abroad? For how long did you live in ......? (RECORD IN MONTHS IF LESS

THAN 2 YEARS) At which month and year did you migrate from ........ to ........ ? What was the main reason of migration from ......?

April 19, 2023


Trafficked Migrants

Highly sensitive survey topic (irregular) ILO pilot tested surveys to measure

forced labour (including trafficking)• Armenia (2009), Georgia (2008), Moldova

LFS (2008) Targeted working age populations who had

recently returned from working abroad

April 19, 2023


Trafficking: Moldova LFS Migration Module (2008)

Have you ever been exploited in any of the following ways while working for someone else abroad?Did this situation happen at the last job? What was the sector in which you had to work under exploitation conditions? When were you exploited?In what country did this happenedFor how long were you in this situation?What was different at the working place as compared to what was previously promised to you?Have you ever had to work against your own will under one of the following conditions?By what means did the owner force you to work?

April 19, 2023


Summary Some hard-to-count migrant groups were much more

relevant to countries than others• Most relevant: irregular, short-term, refugees, and asylum

seekers• Less relevant: transit and circular migrants

Overall, a paucity of data on these topics, and when data collected, often use a wide array of definitions (e.g. short-term migration)

The use of household surveys to estimate these populations is extremely rare

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Summary, cont.

Household surveys can be used to identify hard-to-count migrants

• Analysis of outcomes and characteristics in comparison to other migrant and non-migrant groups.

Specialized sampling techniques (and surveys) still necessary, given scarce presence in general population

Data quality concerns are still an issue

April 19, 2023


Future Work

Investigation of data quality issues Sampling methodology needed to

capture hard-to-count groups More comprehensive examination of

questions asked to identify these groups and recommend best practices

April 19, 2023

United NationsUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division Measuring Hard-to-Count Migration Populations: Importance, Definitions,

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