United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security [email protected] EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 “Advancing human security through knowledge- based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“
United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security [email protected] EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European.
Dec 17, 2015
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental
risks“
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
Environmental change, and migration: Policy options for Europe
Dr. Koko WarnerSection Head Social Vulnerability and Environmental Migration
UNU-EHS
Bonn, Germany
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
Overview Part 1: Does environmental change and
migration affect Europe? Trends Migration as adaptation or measure of last
resort? Part 2: Global challenges, European
policy alternatives Act now: address problems at the source Act later: humanitarian crisis
Outlook
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
Does environmentally induced migration affect Europe?
• 2 issues on global agenda, discussed separately– Climate change and environmental degradation– Migration– How are they linked?
• How many will migrate? – Estimates vary from at least 24 million today to 700 million by 2050
• Climate change & migration challenge– The IPCC says less developed regions are especially vulnerable to impacts
of environmental change
• „Climate change has serious implications on international peace and security, including migration.“
– UN General Assembly Thematic Debate, 11-12 Feb. 2008
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
Environmental change and migration: Hotspots & Trajectories (WGBU 2007)
Source: WGBU 2007 (modified)
Main trajectories
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
What does environmental change & migration mean for Europe?
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
7 November 1998 The Guardian, London
What has changed in 10 years?Source: The Guardian 7 November 1998, Courtesy of Terry Cannon
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
The danger of „Us“ vs. „Them“ Who stands to lose more?
Source: Material World: A Global Family Portrait (Menzel 1994)
• People worldwide face risk of losing life, livelihoods, home.
• The ability to cope with these risks differs from place to place.
• Some people migrate, some try to stay and „muddle through“.
• What are the options?
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
Europe is at the forefront of environmentally-induced migration.
There is no turning away from the problem, but there are choices to be
made how to move forward.
Here are two alternatives.
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
Act now: Address environmental change at the source
1. Help people • Stay at home (?)• Find a new place (?)
2. Help improve environmental conditions
3. Help manage risk
4. Help foster sustainable development
Source: EACH-FOR project, Marc Stal 2007
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
Act later: Humanitarian crisis
Photo courtesy of Thomas Loster, Munich Re Foundation
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
What actions must be taken?
Europe has the opportunity to lead in policy and practice:
1.Science
2.Awareness
3.Legislation
4.Humanitarian assistance
5. Institutional
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
Conclusions
• Environmental factors currently contribute to migration, this affects Europe.
• Europe can choose to act now, and stem a tide of environmental change and migration.
• Alternatively, Europe can choose to act later, and deal with humanitarian crisis on a large scale.
• We must address migration in the face of climate change TODAY for human security in Europe and for Europe´s neighbors tomorrow
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EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation”Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008
Thank you.
Dr. Koko Warner
[email protected]: +49 228 815 0226
www.ehs.unu.edu
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