United Mexican States. Mexico 1.9 million square miles Capital – Mexico City Climate – tropical to desert Per capita GDP 5,300 (101/week) National.

United Mexican States

Mexico

1.9 million square miles Capital – Mexico City Climate – tropical to desert Per capita GDP 5,300 (101/week) National economy $557 billion Population – 97.5 million (2000 census)

Almost 50% under age 20 Needs 1 million new jobs a year to keep up

with demand

Mexico

History

Olmecs, Mayas, Toltecs, and Aztecs Well developed cultures existing long before

Spanish conquest Hernan Cortes conquered Mexico 1519-21 Spanish colonization subsequent 300

years Padre Miguel Hidalgo declared

independence 1810 1821 independence treaty signed with

Spain

History: Post colonialism

1822 after failure of a planned monarchy – Mexico declares itself a republic

War for independence led by local Mexicans: Padre Jose Maria Morelos Gen Augustin Iturbide (emperor 1822-23) Gen Antonio Lopez de Santa Ana (1833-

55)

Post-colonialism: the struggle for power

1836 Texas declares itself independent from Mexico

1846-48 Mexico at war with United States

Napoleonic control of Spanish holding in 1864-67

Strongman control 1877-1911 General Porfirio Diaz

True Independence? Mexican Revolution erupts Severe social and economic problems lead

to armed conflict among Mexicans from 1910-20

1917 constitution promulgated What will become the Institutional

Revolutionary Party (PRI) is formed in 1929

Pancho Villa, Alvaro Obregon, Emiliano Zapata, Victoriano Huerta

PRI controls Mexican government until 2000 election (71 years).

Results of Mexican Revolution

Undercuts the power of regional landowners

Destroys the power of the Catholic Church at the national level

Limits on the power of foreign investors were established

New political elite in power agreed to act via compromise not violence

New constitution and party lay basis for strong central government able to assert its power

Single Party Dominance of Mexican politics: PRI 1917-2000

Federal Republic Separated institutions:

Executive (Felipe Calderón, PAN) Legislative (22 political parties – 8 with

important electoral followings) Judicial

Balance of power with the executive President

Executive-legislative balance of power is currently shifting

Congress is bicameral Senate and Chamber of Deputies

Mexican Presidency

Most dominant branch Power to write and implement

legislation May also govern by executive decree

in economic and financial areas Universal election for one 6 year term No vice-president

Succession: provisional presidents elected by Congress

Mexican Congress

Senate 6 year terms 128 seats some directly elected/some

proportionally elected No re-election for either chamber

Chamber of Deputies 3 year terms 500 deputies Direct election from single member districts – 300 Modified form of proportional representation from

five electoral regions – 200 (this benefits what groups?)

Mexican Judiciary

Federal and State courts Federal courts have jurisdiction over

civil and felony crimes Constitution mandates 1 year deadline

for administration of justice crimes carrying 2 + year sentences

Judiciary does not meet this requirement

Trials by judge not jury Citizens have right to confront accusers,

counsel, protection against self incrimination

Politics of Development

1934-40 Lazaro Cardenas Attempted to implement goals of

revolution 17 million hectares of land redistributed Encouraged formation of labor unions Takes control of oil industry from GB and

US Institutionalizes pattern of succession

Campaigned even though not challenged (cultural characteristic)

Politics of Development:1940-94

Cardenas reforms do not continue Succession of PRI leaders develop

government into a huge system of patronage

Clientelism structures the political system

Development goals change from egalitarian goals of Cardenas to industrialization and accumulation of wealth

1940s-1960s growth strong enough to keep citizens content

Development and Oil 1960s-present

Economy slows and stagnates into mid-1970s

International oil crisis Mexican oil reserves discovered in Gulf Growth resumes – Mexico borrows against

future oil profits Price of oil collapses in 1981

Mexico and Change 1994 PRI Presidential candidate Colosio

assassinated on campaign trail Shocking – political violence absent since 1929

Ernesto Zedillo selected by then president Gortari El Dedazo

International investors concern about safety of DFI Assassination gave rise to speculation about

possible involvement of PRI, drug cartels, law enforcement, other party officials Never solved

NAFTA protests out of Chiapas plus perceived political instability cause international bond ratings to collapse

1994 economic crisis – bailed out by Clinton administration – paid back loans in full early!

Mexico and Change

1994 NAFTA ratified, Chiapas emerging as a serious conflict, Colosio assassinated

1996 electoral reform plan (proportional representation in lower house –COD)

Mexican citizens were increasingly checking the ability of the PRI to dominate Mexican politics

Simultaneously: government introducing changes in the economy that coincided with economic crises

Recipe for citizen dissatisfaction

Mexican Development

A country with an authoritarian tradition on a path to increased democratization

Economic development via government activism – a successful move to the free market? NAFTA!!

Country with severe economic inequalities – able to provide for the population?

Chiapas – Zapatista National Liberation Front

Chiapas January 1st 1994 movement seizes four

towns in Chiapas Land Democratization Indigenous rights Repeal of NAFTA

Two different Mexicos Those moving ahead Those left behind

Chiapas January 1st 1994 movement seizes four

towns in Chiapas Land Democratization Indigenous rights Repeal of NAFTA

Two different Mexicos Those moving ahead Those left behind

Chiapas

Unresolved sociopolitical conflict Sporadic clashes since 1994 over

unresolved land claims Fox promised to renew dialogue with

Zapatista Rebels As president he has withdrawn significant

military presence from the region August 2001 peace accords ratified but

may be amended in future

NAFTA and Mexico

85% of Mexico’s exports go to the USA NAFTA phased in over 10 years Reduction of tariffs No influence on domestic subsidies Impact on Mexican agriculture? Impact on Mexican urbanization

without job growth? Macro economic evidence is good

Economic Future

Mexico’s Challenges: Workforce population today is 4 times what it

was in 1940 This is contemporary growth: 1970-end of 90s

workforce tripled from 12.9-39.1 million Agricultural dominance gave way to

manufacturing, commerce and service 1960 ag workers were 54% of the workforce;

today they are 21% Today the service sector is the largest sector of

the economy

Economic Future

Can the economy produce upward social mobility, increase the size of the middle class?

Austerity programs restrict the growth of wages.

DFI: 1988-94 quadrupled US 59% of investments, followed by EU

and Canada 15.6 billion in 1993

Privatization

Mexico in preparation for NAFTA began the process of privatizing its state held industries

1987: 1,155 firms 1992: 286 (80% drop) Who are the new owners? Post privatization – increased

income inequality 1984-2000

Mexico compared to Taiwan

Primary strategy: Privatization Neo-liberal economic

reforms with austerity

9th largest economy in the world without an increase in employment

Number of university educated is declining

Pursued multiple strategies: Land reform Labor intensive

exports Domestic saving Small-med sized

enterprises Basic education

Mexico and Taiwan

Income and education 1,600/100,000 enroll in higher

education 3,000 in Costa Rica and 5,300 USA Income related to education

completion