UNIT TWO: POPULATION

UNIT TWO: UNIT TWO: POPULATIONPOPULATION

Population IntroPopulation Intro

Why important to study?Why important to study?• More people on earth than at any other time in More people on earth than at any other time in

history (6.5 bill)history (6.5 bill)• World’s pop increased faster in second half of World’s pop increased faster in second half of

2020thth C than ever before C than ever before• Almost all global pop growth is occurring in Almost all global pop growth is occurring in

LDCs…poorest countries growing fastest…in LDCs…poorest countries growing fastest…in some cases leads to famine and human some cases leads to famine and human sufferingsuffering

• People are living longer – past 50 yrs global life People are living longer – past 50 yrs global life expectancy has increased by 20 yrsexpectancy has increased by 20 yrs

DEMOGRAPHYDEMOGRAPHY

Demography:Demography: study of human pop study of human pop Most demographers agree world pop Most demographers agree world pop

growth is slowinggrowth is slowing Project pop will plateau at @ 12 bill Project pop will plateau at @ 12 bill

some time in 21some time in 21stst C C Historically pop growth has been Historically pop growth has been

steady but certain events have steady but certain events have checked it…..disease has been and checked it…..disease has been and continues to be biggest threatcontinues to be biggest threat

2.1 Population Concentrations2.1 Population Concentrations

Ecumene:Ecumene: portion of earth’s surface portion of earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlementoccupied by permanent human settlement• ¾ world pop live on 5% of earth’s ¾ world pop live on 5% of earth’s

surface….Why?surface….Why? 2/3 of world pop lives in 4 regions2/3 of world pop lives in 4 regions

• 1.) 1.) EAST ASIAEAST ASIA (E. China, Japan, Taiwan, Koreas (E. China, Japan, Taiwan, Koreas China has 20 large urban areas, but 2/3 pop is ruralChina has 20 large urban areas, but 2/3 pop is rural China = world #1China = world #1 ¾ Japan and Korea = urban¾ Japan and Korea = urban

4 Populous Regions - contd4 Populous Regions - contd

• 2.) 2.) SOUTH ASIASOUTH ASIA (India, Pakistan, (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka)Bangladesh, Sri Lanka)

India = world #2India = world #2 ¾ rural¾ rural

• 3.) 3.) EUROPEEUROPE – E and W…mostly urban – E and W…mostly urban• 4.) 4.) SE AsiaSE Asia (islands of Java, Sumatra, (islands of Java, Sumatra,

Borneo, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Borneo, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand)Vietnam, Thailand)

Indonesia = world #4Indonesia = world #4 Mostly ruralMostly rural

Top 10 Populous NationsTop 10 Populous Nations

1. China1. China 6. Pakistan 6. Pakistan 2. India2. India 7. Russia 7. Russia 3. U.S.A.3. U.S.A. 8. Bangladesh 8. Bangladesh 4. Indonesia4. Indonesia 9. Nigeria 9. Nigeria 5. Brazil5. Brazil 10. Japan 10. Japan

• China and India expected to flip flopChina and India expected to flip flop• U.S. will stay #3 b/c of immigrationU.S. will stay #3 b/c of immigration• LDCs taking top spots from MDCsLDCs taking top spots from MDCs

Population DensityPopulation Density

Arithmetic Density:Arithmetic Density: total # of people total # of people divided by total area of land divided by total area of land • Can be misleading b/c is an averageCan be misleading b/c is an average• US = 78/sq mile, but Manhattan is US = 78/sq mile, but Manhattan is

67,000/sq mile and Loving, TX .1/sq mile67,000/sq mile and Loving, TX .1/sq mile• Highest = Bangladesh, Japan, Highest = Bangladesh, Japan,

NetherlandsNetherlands• Remember high pop (China) not Remember high pop (China) not

necessarily high pop densitynecessarily high pop density

Pop Density cont’dPop Density cont’d

Physiological DensityPhysiological Density: ratio of people : ratio of people to a given unit of cultivable/arable to a given unit of cultivable/arable land (suited for agriculture)land (suited for agriculture)• i.e. can you feed your population?i.e. can you feed your population?• Can be high b/c of high pop density or Can be high b/c of high pop density or

poor landpoor land• Ex: US 404/sq mile of arable landEx: US 404/sq mile of arable land Egypt 9,073/sq mile of arable landEgypt 9,073/sq mile of arable land

2.2 POPULATION GROWTH2.2 POPULATION GROWTH

Rule of Thumb….Rule of Thumb….• Pop increases rapidly where many more Pop increases rapidly where many more

born than dieborn than die• Slowly where births barely exceed Slowly where births barely exceed

deathsdeaths• Decreases where deaths outnumber Decreases where deaths outnumber

birthsbirths• Increases when people move in and Increases when people move in and

decreases when people move outdecreases when people move out

Pop Change…measured 3 waysPop Change…measured 3 ways

1. Crude Birth Rate CBR:1. Crude Birth Rate CBR: total # of total # of births for every 1,000 alivebirths for every 1,000 alive

2. Total Fertility Rate TFR:2. Total Fertility Rate TFR: average # average # of children a woman will have during of children a woman will have during child bearing yrs. Affected by: child bearing yrs. Affected by: culture, religion, lifestyle, is child culture, religion, lifestyle, is child econ asset or drain, access to birth econ asset or drain, access to birth control, mother’s educ and careercontrol, mother’s educ and career

Pop Change – cont’d.Pop Change – cont’d.

3. Natural Increase Rate NIR:3. Natural Increase Rate NIR: • NIR = CBR – CDRNIR = CBR – CDR• Calculates % by which pop grows each yr.Calculates % by which pop grows each yr.• Ex: CBR = 20, CDR = 5, NIR = 1.5%Ex: CBR = 20, CDR = 5, NIR = 1.5%• Excludes migration – only natural increaseExcludes migration – only natural increase• A negative NIR means pop decreasingA negative NIR means pop decreasing• World NIR peaked in 1963 at 2.2%World NIR peaked in 1963 at 2.2%• World NIR has declined in last 20 yrs.World NIR has declined in last 20 yrs.

What determines a nation’s NIR? What determines a nation’s NIR? Factors to considerFactors to consider

Econ developmentEcon development EducationEducation Gender Empowerment – status and Gender Empowerment – status and

power to womenpower to women Health CareHealth Care Culture (i.e. Catholics or Mormons)Culture (i.e. Catholics or Mormons) Public Policy (ex: China one child)Public Policy (ex: China one child)

Factors determining a nation’s NIR Factors determining a nation’s NIR – cont’d.– cont’d.

Conclusions….countries w/ low econ Conclusions….countries w/ low econ development, low educ, low gender development, low educ, low gender empowerment, but w/ lower infant empowerment, but w/ lower infant mortality rates b/c of improved mortality rates b/c of improved health care, cultural traditions health care, cultural traditions favoring fertility, and no public policy favoring fertility, and no public policy limiting pop growth..have HIGHEST limiting pop growth..have HIGHEST ratesrates

Where are these countries?Where are these countries?

LDCs: sub Sahara Africa, parts of LDCs: sub Sahara Africa, parts of Middle East, parts of L. AmericaMiddle East, parts of L. America

In MDCs pop growth is not natural In MDCs pop growth is not natural but due to immigrationbut due to immigration

Irony – fastest growing places are Irony – fastest growing places are least equip to deal w/ the growthleast equip to deal w/ the growth

Doubling TimeDoubling Time

Doubling Time: # of yrs needed for a pop Doubling Time: # of yrs needed for a pop to doubleto double• Formula 70/NIR…ex: NIR is 2.6 % DT is 70/2.6 Formula 70/NIR…ex: NIR is 2.6 % DT is 70/2.6

= 27 years= 27 years• Pop growth is compounded/exponential (if rate Pop growth is compounded/exponential (if rate

stays steady at 3% you’ll add more raw stays steady at 3% you’ll add more raw numbers each yr b/c base gets bigger)numbers each yr b/c base gets bigger)

• At 3% rate, DT is less than 25 yrs. Taking At 3% rate, DT is less than 25 yrs. Taking place in SS Africa, parts of ME, and parts of place in SS Africa, parts of ME, and parts of Central AmericaCentral America

MORTALITYMORTALITY

CDRCDR

Infant Mortality Rate:Infant Mortality Rate: annual # of deaths annual # of deaths of infants under 1 yr compared w/ total # of infants under 1 yr compared w/ total # of birthsof births• In some parts of SS Africa is 10%In some parts of SS Africa is 10%

Life Expectancy:Life Expectancy: # or yrs a newborn can # or yrs a newborn can expect to live..75 in most MDCs, late 30s expect to live..75 in most MDCs, late 30s in some parts of Africain some parts of Africa

Population Growth CurvesPopulation Growth Curves

S CurveS Curve – historical growth – historical growth

J CurveJ Curve – exponential growth (fixed – exponential growth (fixed percentage)percentage)

Demographic MomentumDemographic Momentum

The tendency for pop growth to The tendency for pop growth to continue despite strict family continue despite strict family planning b/c of young pop in child planning b/c of young pop in child bearing yrsbearing yrs• Asia and LA 33% of pop under 15Asia and LA 33% of pop under 15• Africa 40% of pop under 15Africa 40% of pop under 15• Ex: In 2002 both UK and S. Korea had Ex: In 2002 both UK and S. Korea had

fertility rate of 1.6. But projections for fertility rate of 1.6. But projections for 2025, older UK will decline by 2 mill and 2025, older UK will decline by 2 mill and youthful SK will add 2 mill.youthful SK will add 2 mill.

2.3 Demographic Transition Model2.3 Demographic Transition Model

4 stage model shows similar process 4 stage model shows similar process of pop change in all societies over of pop change in all societies over timetime

Every country is at some stageEvery country is at some stage The model is irreversible…you do not The model is irreversible…you do not

go backgo back

STAGE ONE: LOW GROWTHSTAGE ONE: LOW GROWTH

Very high CBR and CDR cancel each Very high CBR and CDR cancel each other outother out

Almost no long term natural increaseAlmost no long term natural increase Most of human history spent in stage Most of human history spent in stage

oneone No country is here todayNo country is here today

STAGE TWO: HIGH GROWTHSTAGE TWO: HIGH GROWTH

Rapidly declining CDR but CBR remains Rapidly declining CDR but CBR remains high and = very high NIRhigh and = very high NIR• @ 1750 – late 1800s nations in Ind Rev (Eur @ 1750 – late 1800s nations in Ind Rev (Eur

and N. America) moved into stage 2. Improved and N. America) moved into stage 2. Improved agric and health care dropped CDR.agric and health care dropped CDR.

• First time in world history to have significant First time in world history to have significant growthgrowth

• LDCs entered stage 2 @1950 when MDCs LDCs entered stage 2 @1950 when MDCs diffuse improved medical tech (vaccines) to diffuse improved medical tech (vaccines) to LDCs.LDCs.

• Most of Africa in stage 2 todayMost of Africa in stage 2 today

STAGE THREE: MODERATE STAGE THREE: MODERATE GROWTHGROWTH

CBR rapidly declines and CDR continues to CBR rapidly declines and CDR continues to decline slowly. NIR begins to moderatedecline slowly. NIR begins to moderate

CBR drops b/c of social customs – access CBR drops b/c of social customs – access to birth control, infant mortality rate drops, to birth control, infant mortality rate drops, women in work force, kids become econ women in work force, kids become econ draindrain

Eur and NA enter - first half of 20Eur and NA enter - first half of 20thth C C Asia and parts of LA moved here in recent Asia and parts of LA moved here in recent

yrsyrs

STAGE FOUR: LOW GROWTHSTAGE FOUR: LOW GROWTH

Very low CBR and CDR produce Very low CBR and CDR produce almost no long-term natural increase almost no long-term natural increase and possibly a decreaseand possibly a decrease

Zero pop growthZero pop growth: CBR and CDR =: CBR and CDR =• TFR of 2.1 produces zero growthTFR of 2.1 produces zero growth

Most Euro countries in stage 4 todayMost Euro countries in stage 4 today Countries w/ negative NIR…Russia Countries w/ negative NIR…Russia

and Japan (shrinking)and Japan (shrinking)

Possible Stage Five?Possible Stage Five?

In future if higher CDR than CBR In future if higher CDR than CBR you’ll have irreversible pop decline. you’ll have irreversible pop decline.

If a country stays in stage 5 without If a country stays in stage 5 without

migration it will eventually cease to migration it will eventually cease to existexist

Generalities of the ModelGeneralities of the Model

No one in stage 1; only a few have No one in stage 1; only a few have reached stage 4 reached stage 4

Model has 2 big breaks w/ the pastModel has 2 big breaks w/ the past• First break: sudden drop in death rate First break: sudden drop in death rate

(stage 2) from technology and has taken (stage 2) from technology and has taken place everywhereplace everywhere

• Second break: sudden drop in birth rate Second break: sudden drop in birth rate (stage 3) comes from changing social (stage 3) comes from changing social customs and has not taken place customs and has not taken place everywhereeverywhere

2.4 Population Structure and 2.4 Population Structure and CompositionComposition

Population pyramids…show age and Population pyramids…show age and gender groups. How do MDC’s and gender groups. How do MDC’s and LDC’s differ?LDC’s differ?

• 1.) Sex Ratio: # of males per 100 1.) Sex Ratio: # of males per 100 females. In general slightly more males females. In general slightly more males born, but women outlive menborn, but women outlive men

Eur and NA 95 males: 100 femalesEur and NA 95 males: 100 females World wide 102 males: 100 femalesWorld wide 102 males: 100 females

Pop Structure and Composition – Pop Structure and Composition – cont’d.cont’d.

2.) Age Distribution2.) Age Distribution• Dependency Ratio:Dependency Ratio: # of people too old or # of people too old or

young to work, compared to # of people in young to work, compared to # of people in productive yrs.productive yrs.

% of pop under 15 = % over 65 divided by % in % of pop under 15 = % over 65 divided by % in between 15-65 multiplied by 100between 15-65 multiplied by 100

Tells you how many dependents for every 100 Tells you how many dependents for every 100 workersworkers

Stage 2 countries: ratio is 1:1 (1 worker for every Stage 2 countries: ratio is 1:1 (1 worker for every dependent) Dependents are youngdependent) Dependents are young

Stage 4 countries ratio is 2:1 (2 workers for every Stage 4 countries ratio is 2:1 (2 workers for every dependent) Dependents are young and olddependent) Dependents are young and old

Age Distribution – cont’dAge Distribution – cont’d

• Graying of the pop in MDCsGraying of the pop in MDCs – more than – more than ¼ of all govn’t expenditures in US, ¼ of all govn’t expenditures in US, Canada, Japan, and W. Eur goes to Canada, Japan, and W. Eur goes to Social Security, health care, and other Social Security, health care, and other programs for the elderlyprograms for the elderly

• Baby Boomer CohortBaby Boomer Cohort in US (born 1946- in US (born 1946-1964)…what does this mean for you?1964)…what does this mean for you?

• Generation XGeneration X = 1965-1980 = 1965-1980

Population Structure and Population Structure and Composition – cont’dComposition – cont’d

Race and Ethnicity: Hispanics now Race and Ethnicity: Hispanics now largest minority in US (recently largest minority in US (recently passed African Americans)passed African Americans)• 11% of US pop is foreign born11% of US pop is foreign born

50% of that from LA50% of that from LA 50% of that from Mexico50% of that from Mexico

What do you see? Why?What do you see? Why?

Overpopulation and SustainabilityOverpopulation and Sustainability

Should we worry @ overpopulation?Should we worry @ overpopulation?• Thomas MalthusThomas Malthus – 1798 wrote “Essay on – 1798 wrote “Essay on

the Principle of Pop” and arguedthe Principle of Pop” and argued people need food to survive and have people need food to survive and have

natural desire to reproducenatural desire to reproduce Food prod increases arithmetically and pop Food prod increases arithmetically and pop

increases geometrically/exponentiallyincreases geometrically/exponentially Predicted pop growth would eventually Predicted pop growth would eventually

outpace people’s ability to produce food outpace people’s ability to produce food leading to starvation and famineleading to starvation and famine

Malthus and his theoryMalthus and his theory

Neo MalthusiansNeo Malthusians

Argue that 2 characteristics of recent pop Argue that 2 characteristics of recent pop growth make Malthus’ argument even growth make Malthus’ argument even more frighteningmore frightening• Esp high growth in LDCsEsp high growth in LDCs• Pop growth outpacing econ dev in many LDCs Pop growth outpacing econ dev in many LDCs

(i.e. income rises 20% but pop rises 30%, so (i.e. income rises 20% but pop rises 30%, so some LDCs worse off than they were 30 yrs some LDCs worse off than they were 30 yrs ago)ago)

• Paul Erlich – most prominent neo-Malthusian. Paul Erlich – most prominent neo-Malthusian. Wrote “Population Bomb” in 1968 – warned of Wrote “Population Bomb” in 1968 – warned of mass starvation due to overpopulationmass starvation due to overpopulation

http://overpopulationisamyth.com/overpopulation-the-making-of-a-myth

Critics of MalthusCritics of Malthus

Malthus did not account for ability of Malthus did not account for ability of people to increase food prod dramatically people to increase food prod dramatically w/ new technology (go to video 3)w/ new technology (go to video 3)

Malthus did not foresee family planning Malthus did not foresee family planning and birth control and drop of CBR/NIRand birth control and drop of CBR/NIR

Malthus did not recognize that famine is Malthus did not recognize that famine is usually NOT related to a lack of food but to usually NOT related to a lack of food but to unequal dist of food – Marxist approachunequal dist of food – Marxist approach

http://overpopulationisamyth.com/overpopulation-the-making-of-a-myth

Population and SustainabilityPopulation and Sustainability

Carrying Capacity:Carrying Capacity: # of people a given # of people a given area can maintain…surpassed in densely area can maintain…surpassed in densely populated placespopulated places

Overpopulation implies a breach of an Overpopulation implies a breach of an area’s carrying capacity. Also involvesarea’s carrying capacity. Also involves• Over consumption of resourcesOver consumption of resources• Inefficient allocation of goodsInefficient allocation of goods• Unsustainable land useUnsustainable land use• MDC’s blame LDC’s – have too many babiesMDC’s blame LDC’s – have too many babies• LDCs blame MDCs – consume disproportionate LDCs blame MDCs – consume disproportionate

share of world’s resourcesshare of world’s resources

Control of PopulationControl of Population

Pro-Natalist Policies – government Pro-Natalist Policies – government policies to promote reproduction and policies to promote reproduction and bigger familiesbigger families• Ex. Tax breaksEx. Tax breaks

Anti-Natalist – government and social Anti-Natalist – government and social policies that discourage reproduction policies that discourage reproduction to reduce pop growth ratesto reduce pop growth rates• Tax breaks for sterilizationTax breaks for sterilization• One-child policies – may lead to gender imbalanceOne-child policies – may lead to gender imbalance

Control of PopulationControl of Population

Improve local and state economiesImprove local and state economies• Better school, more eco opportunitiesBetter school, more eco opportunities

Reduce CBR through the use of Reduce CBR through the use of contraception contraception • Family planning programs in LDCsFamily planning programs in LDCs• Why is this sometimes difficult?Why is this sometimes difficult?

Epidemiological Transition ModelEpidemiological Transition Model

At times high CDR have lowered NIRAt times high CDR have lowered NIR Stage 1: Pestilence and FamineStage 1: Pestilence and Famine: i.e. : i.e.

infectious diseases…ex: Black Plague infectious diseases…ex: Black Plague 1350s kills ½ Eur pop1350s kills ½ Eur pop

Stage 2: Receding Pandemics: Stage 2: Receding Pandemics: improved sanitation, nutrition, improved sanitation, nutrition, medicine of Ind Rev decreases medicine of Ind Rev decreases spread of infect diseasesspread of infect diseases

Epidemiological Transition Model Epidemiological Transition Model Cont’dCont’d

Stage 3: Degenerative and Human Stage 3: Degenerative and Human Created DiseasesCreated Diseases• Fewer deaths from infectious diseasesFewer deaths from infectious diseases• Increase in chronic disease associated w/ aging Increase in chronic disease associated w/ aging

(heart disease and cancer)(heart disease and cancer) Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative DiseasesStage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases – –

degenerative diseases linger but life exp is degenerative diseases linger but life exp is extended trough medical advances extended trough medical advances (bypass, radiation, chemo, etc.)(bypass, radiation, chemo, etc.)

Epidemiological Transition Model Epidemiological Transition Model Cont’dCont’d

Possible Stage 5 – Reemergence of Possible Stage 5 – Reemergence of Infectious and Parasitic DiseasesInfectious and Parasitic Diseases• Evolution of new strains of bacteria (TB, Evolution of new strains of bacteria (TB,

polio, malaria)polio, malaria)• Poverty – people cannot afford drug Poverty – people cannot afford drug

treatment (TB)treatment (TB)• Improved travel diffuses diseases faster Improved travel diffuses diseases faster

(AIDS)(AIDS)