Unit 9: Determinants of FX Rates

Unit 9:Unit 9:

Determinants Determinants

of FX Ratesof FX Rates

Financial EnglishFinancial English

http://images.google.cn/imgres?imgurl=http://i3.sinaimg.cn/cj/roll/20071126/56551bec102b3251929d53f712fe5065.jpg&imgrefurl=http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20071126/11091815586.shtml&usg=__SKwttdLavmm-2Au9GgIbuIqHm3g=&h=374&w=500&sz=49&hl=zh-CN&start=13&tbnid=DrzgG5SeMd5K5M:&tbnh=97&tbnw=130&prev=/images%3Fq%3D%25E6%25B1%2587%25E7%258E%2587%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Dzh-CN%26sa%3DG%26newwindow%3D1

Unit 8 TextUnit 8 Text

Banking SupervisionBanking Supervision

Unit 9:Unit 9:

• Revision of Unit 8

• Background information of Unit 9

• Unit 9

• ExercisesExercises

• Assignment

http://image.baidu.com/i?ct=503316480&z=0&tn=baiduimagedetail&word=%D2%F8%D0%D0%BC%E0%B9%DC&in=29927&cl=2&cm=1&sc=0&lm=-1&pn=30&rn=1&di=150211208&ln=224

Review of Unit 8Review of Unit 8

• Dictation

• Exercises Check-upExercises Check-up

Blanks filling

Reading

Revision of Text ARevision of Text A

Spot DictationSpot Dictation

Dictation!Dictation!

You are going to hear 5 sentences. Each You are going to hear 5 sentences. Each

willwill

be read three times. Write down the sentences be read three times. Write down the sentences

according to what you hear.according to what you hear.

1.1. 2.2. 3.3. 4.4. 5.5.

Check-upCheck-up

Key to Dictation:Key to Dictation:

1.1. Banks are often described as our economy's engineBanks are often described as our economy's engine ..

2.2. Banking is an industry that is subject both to Banking is an industry that is subject both to market competition and considerable regulation market competition and considerable regulation

3.3. Supervision requires the collection and analysis of Supervision requires the collection and analysis of informationinformation ..

4.4. In return, when the depositors suffer from great In return, when the depositors suffer from great loss, they may lose confidence in the banksloss, they may lose confidence in the banks . .

5.5. A key factor of banking supervision is the ability of the A key factor of banking supervision is the ability of the supervisors to supervise the consolidated banking supervisors to supervise the consolidated banking organizationorganization . .

DictationDictation

II. Fill in the blanks with proper words or phrases given below

Check-upCheck-up

issue term note holderissue term note holder

reputation dealer ship come duereputation dealer ship come due

appropriate negotiableappropriate negotiable

issue term note holderissue term note holder

reputation dealer ship come duereputation dealer ship come due

appropriate negotiableappropriate negotiable

Bankers’ acceptances are very old form of Bankers’ acceptances are very old form of

commercial credit. They provide a method whereby a bank commercial credit. They provide a method whereby a bank

may add its good name and may add its good name and to the promissory to the promissory

note of a borrower, thereby making the note of a borrower, thereby making the much much

more marketable than it would other wise be. Specifically, more marketable than it would other wise be. Specifically,

the mechanics of the operation typically work like this. the mechanics of the operation typically work like this.

Suppose that an American exporter sells wheat to a Chinese Suppose that an American exporter sells wheat to a Chinese

importer. The importer. The of the sale are that the Chinese of the sale are that the Chinese

import will pay for the wheat ninety days after it is shipped.import will pay for the wheat ninety days after it is shipped.

Check-upCheck-up

Check-upCheck-up

A for a variety of reasons, however, the American firm may A for a variety of reasons, however, the American firm may

want its money now, and not want to wait ninety days. If so, want its money now, and not want to wait ninety days. If so,

it may it may a draft on its bank ordering the bank to a draft on its bank ordering the bank to

pay a stipulated sum of money to pay a stipulated sum of money to of the draft of the draft

ninety days from now. Along with the draft, the American ninety days from now. Along with the draft, the American

exporter will send exporter will send documents showing that the documents showing that the

wheat has actually been wheat has actually been ..

ClozeCloze

When the bank receives the draft, together with the docWhen the bank receives the draft, together with the doc

umentation, it stamps “accepted” across the face of it. By acumentation, it stamps “accepted” across the face of it. By ac

cepting the draft, the bank has given its unconditional guarcepting the draft, the bank has given its unconditional guar

antee to pay the draft when it antee to pay the draft when it . The draft is now . The draft is now

a a , marketable instrument. It is returned to the , marketable instrument. It is returned to the

American exporter, who will sell it through a regular American exporter, who will sell it through a regular

in banker’s acceptance. in banker’s acceptance.

(From Finance English by Chen Jianhu(From Finance English by Chen Jianhu

i)i) Check-upCheck-up

Bankers’ acceptances are very old form of Bankers’ acceptances are very old form of

commercial credit. They provide a method whereby a bank commercial credit. They provide a method whereby a bank

may add its good name and may add its good name and to the promissory to the promissory

note of a borrower, thereby making the note of a borrower, thereby making the much more much more

marketable than it would other wise be. Specifically, the marketable than it would other wise be. Specifically, the

mechanics of the operation typically work like this. Suppose mechanics of the operation typically work like this. Suppose

that an American exporter sells wheat to a Chinese that an American exporter sells wheat to a Chinese

importer. The importer. The of the sale are that the Chinese import of the sale are that the Chinese import

will pay for the wheat ninety days after it is shipped.will pay for the wheat ninety days after it is shipped.

Check-upCheck-up

reputationreputationreputationreputation

notenotenotenote

termstermstermsterms

Check-upCheck-up

A for a variety of reasons, however, the American firm may A for a variety of reasons, however, the American firm may

want its money now, and not want to wait ninety days. If so, want its money now, and not want to wait ninety days. If so,

it may it may a draft on its bank ordering the bank to pay a a draft on its bank ordering the bank to pay a

stipulated sum of money to stipulated sum of money to of the draft ninety days of the draft ninety days

from now. Along with the draft, the American exporter will from now. Along with the draft, the American exporter will

send send documents showing that the wheat has documents showing that the wheat has

actually been actually been ..

issueissueissueissue

holderholderholderholder

appropriateappropriateappropriateappropriate

shippedshippedshippedshipped

ClozeCloze

When the bank receives the draft, together with the docWhen the bank receives the draft, together with the doc

umentation, it stamps “accepted” across the face of it. By acumentation, it stamps “accepted” across the face of it. By ac

cepting the draft, the bank has given its unconditional guarcepting the draft, the bank has given its unconditional guar

antee to pay the draft when it antee to pay the draft when it . The draft is now a . The draft is now a

, marketable instrument. It is returned to the A , marketable instrument. It is returned to the A

merican exporter, who will sell it through a regular merican exporter, who will sell it through a regular

in banker’s acceptance. in banker’s acceptance.

(From Finance English by Chen Jianhu(From Finance English by Chen Jianhu

i)i)

comes duecomes duecomes duecomes due

negotiablenegotiablenegotiablenegotiable

dealerdealerdealerdealer


• Dictation


Blanks filling

Reading


III. Reading ComprehensionIII. Reading Comprehension

1. Suppose that the fractional reserve is 24 percent, thus, wh1. Suppose that the fractional reserve is 24 percent, thus, wh

en a customer deposits 1000 yuan in a bank, it may immedien a customer deposits 1000 yuan in a bank, it may immedi

ately set aside _________ as a reserve. ately set aside _________ as a reserve.

A. 24 yuan B. 120 yuan C. 240 yuan D 880 yuanA. 24 yuan B. 120 yuan C. 240 yuan D 880 yuan

2. If the fractional reserve ratio is 12 percent, and the origi2. If the fractional reserve ratio is 12 percent, and the origi

nal deposit is 1000 yuan, how much new money will be crenal deposit is 1000 yuan, how much new money will be cre

ated in the system (Unit: yuan)?ated in the system (Unit: yuan)?

A. 8333.33 B. 73333.33 C.6666.66 D120 A. 8333.33 B. 73333.33 C.6666.66 D120

2. If the fractional reserve ratio is 12 percent, and the origi2. If the fractional reserve ratio is 12 percent, and the origi

nal deposit is 1000 yuan, how much new money will be crenal deposit is 1000 yuan, how much new money will be cre

ated in the system (Unit: yuan)?ated in the system (Unit: yuan)?

A. 8333.33 B. 73333.33 C.6666.66 D120 A. 8333.33 B. 73333.33 C.6666.66 D120

Reading ComprehensionReading Comprehension

3. Assume your bank has lent all of its available funds based 3. Assume your bank has lent all of its available funds based

on a reserve of 12 percent and there is a new reserve on a reserve of 12 percent and there is a new reserve

requirement of 25 percent, it must immediately requirement of 25 percent, it must immediately

___________to build its reserves to meet the new reserve ___________to build its reserves to meet the new reserve

requirement. requirement.

A. attract new deposits B. make new loans A. attract new deposits B. make new loans

C. take bank deposits D. set aside less moneyC. take bank deposits D. set aside less money


4. If the Fed issues a change requiring that 20 percent of 4. If the Fed issues a change requiring that 20 percent of

deposits be set aside as a reserve compared to the deposits be set aside as a reserve compared to the

former 30 percent. Then the new maximum money in former 30 percent. Then the new maximum money in

circulation will __________. circulation will __________.

A.A. become less B. become more become less B. become more

B.B. C. not change D. be 10 percentC. not change D. be 10 percent


5. Loans made against the ________ are key factor in 5. Loans made against the ________ are key factor in

banking and current fractional reserve deposit money banking and current fractional reserve deposit money

expansion activities. expansion activities.

A. requirement B. fractional reserve A. requirement B. fractional reserve

C. the amount of deposits D. banking regulationsC. the amount of deposits D. banking regulations


• Dictation


Blanks filling

Reading


Text : Background InformationText : Background Information

外汇是国际贸易的产物，是国际贸易清偿的支付手段。外是国际贸易的产物，是国际贸易清偿的支付手段。外汇（汇（ Foreign ExchangeForeign Exchange ）即国外汇兑，“汇”是货币异地转移，）即国外汇兑，“汇”是货币异地转移，“兑”是货币之间进行转换，从动态上讲，外汇就是把一国货“兑”是货币之间进行转换，从动态上讲，外汇就是把一国货币转换成另一国货币，并在国际间流通用以清算因国际经济往币转换成另一国货币，并在国际间流通用以清算因国际经济往来而产生的债权债务。从静态上讲外汇又表现为进行国际清算来而产生的债权债务。从静态上讲外汇又表现为进行国际清算的手段和工具，如外国货币，以外币计价的各种证券。的手段和工具，如外国货币，以外币计价的各种证券。

外汇是国际贸易的产物，是国际贸易清偿的支付手段。外是国际贸易的产物，是国际贸易清偿的支付手段。外汇（汇（ Foreign ExchangeForeign Exchange ）即国外汇兑，“汇”是货币异地转移，）即国外汇兑，“汇”是货币异地转移，“兑”是货币之间进行转换，从动态上讲，外汇就是把一国货“兑”是货币之间进行转换，从动态上讲，外汇就是把一国货币转换成另一国货币，并在国际间流通用以清算因国际经济往币转换成另一国货币，并在国际间流通用以清算因国际经济往来而产生的债权债务。从静态上讲外汇又表现为进行国际清算来而产生的债权债务。从静态上讲外汇又表现为进行国际清算的手段和工具，如外国货币，以外币计价的各种证券。的手段和工具，如外国货币，以外币计价的各种证券。


外汇汇率外汇汇率是用一个国家的货币折算成另一个国家的货币是用一个国家的货币折算成另一个国家的货币的比率、比价或价格；也可以说，是以本国货币表示的外国货的比率、比价或价格；也可以说，是以本国货币表示的外国货币的币的 "" 价格价格 "" 。由于国际间的贸易与非贸易往来，各国之间需。由于国际间的贸易与非贸易往来，各国之间需要办理国际结算，所以一个国家的货币，对其他国家的货币，要办理国际结算，所以一个国家的货币，对其他国家的货币，都规定有一个汇率，但其中最重要的是对美元等少数国家货币都规定有一个汇率，但其中最重要的是对美元等少数国家货币的汇率。的汇率。

外汇汇率外汇汇率是用一个国家的货币折算成另一个国家的货币是用一个国家的货币折算成另一个国家的货币的比率、比价或价格；也可以说，是以本国货币表示的外国货的比率、比价或价格；也可以说，是以本国货币表示的外国货币的币的 "" 价格价格 "" 。由于国际间的贸易与非贸易往来，各国之间需。由于国际间的贸易与非贸易往来，各国之间需要办理国际结算，所以一个国家的货币，对其他国家的货币，要办理国际结算，所以一个国家的货币，对其他国家的货币，都规定有一个汇率，但其中最重要的是对美元等少数国家货币都规定有一个汇率，但其中最重要的是对美元等少数国家货币的汇率。的汇率。


基本理论基本理论11 ）国际平价条件）国际平价条件

aa ）购买力平价）购买力平价 (PPP) b(PPP) b ）利率平价）利率平价 (IRP) c)(IRP) c) 费雪效应费雪效应

22 ）国际收支模式）国际收支模式

33 ）资产市场模式）资产市场模式

44 ）美元和美国资产市场）美元和美国资产市场 (( 略略 ))

基本理论基本理论11 ）国际平价条件）国际平价条件

aa ）购买力平价）购买力平价 (PPP) b(PPP) b ）利率平价）利率平价 (IRP) c)(IRP) c) 费雪效应费雪效应

22 ）国际收支模式）国际收支模式

33 ）资产市场模式）资产市场模式

44 ）美元和美国资产市场）美元和美国资产市场 (( 略略 ))


本章旨在本章旨在通过介绍外汇、汇率的定义，决定汇率的三种理论、汇率的决定因素、以及金融工具让学生重温外汇有关知识。在政治、经济社会生活中，存在着许多因素会引起货币币值和外汇供求状况发生变化，进而引起汇率发生变动，在这众多因素中，我们主要从三个方面来谈：经济因素，政治因素以及市场心理预期。本章重点外汇和汇率，学生重点掌握外汇和汇率的概念及外汇的决定因素。

本章旨在本章旨在通过介绍外汇、汇率的定义，决定汇率的三种理论、汇率的决定因素、以及金融工具让学生重温外汇有关知识。在政治、经济社会生活中，存在着许多因素会引起货币币值和外汇供求状况发生变化，进而引起汇率发生变动，在这众多因素中，我们主要从三个方面来谈：经济因素，政治因素以及市场心理预期。本章重点外汇和汇率，学生重点掌握外汇和汇率的概念及外汇的决定因素。


本章重点难点本章重点难点

通过本章学习，学生应该掌握 :

什么是外汇 ? 什么是汇率 ?

决定汇率的理论

汇率的决定因素

本章重点难点本章重点难点

通过本章学习，学生应该掌握 :

什么是外汇 ? 什么是汇率 ?

决定汇率的理论

汇率的决定因素

Unit 9:Unit 9:

Unit 9 Foreign exchange Unit 9 Foreign exchange

marketmarket

Part I: 9.1 Foreign exchange and foreign exchange rates 9.1 Foreign exchange and foreign exchange rates

Reading Skill

Part II: 9.2 Theories of foreign exchange rate9.2 Theories of foreign exchange rate

Part III: 9.3 Determinants of FX rates 9.3 Determinants of FX rates

Unit 9 Foreign exchange Unit 9 Foreign exchange

marketmarket

Part I: 9.1 Foreign exchange and foreign exchange rates 9.1 Foreign exchange and foreign exchange rates

Reading Skill

Part II: 9.2 Theories of foreign exchange rate9.2 Theories of foreign exchange rate

Part III: 9.3 Determinants of FX rates 9.3 Determinants of FX rates

• Listening

• Text

•

TextText

ListeningListening

TextText

Determinants of FX RatesDeterminants of FX Rates


Listen carefully to the first part of the text and then Listen carefully to the first part of the text and then try to translate it. try to translate it.


9.1 Foreign 9.1 Foreign exchange and foreign exchange rates exchange and foreign exchange rates

Foreign exchange Foreign exchange refers to currency and money claims, such as

bank balances and bank drafts, which is expressed in the

equivalent value in foreign money. Foreign exchange is a

commodity, and its price fluctuates in accordance with supply;

exchange rates are published daily in the principal newspapers of

the world. The term Foreign exchange is also used to refer to

transactions involving the the conversion of money of one country into of money of one country into

that of another or to the international transfer of money and credit that of another or to the international transfer of money and credit

instruments. instruments.

Text :Text :

The use of foreign exchange arises because different nationThe use of foreign exchange arises because different nation

s have different monetary units, and the currency of one countrs have different monetary units, and the currency of one countr

y cannot be used for making payments in another country. Becy cannot be used for making payments in another country. Bec

ause of trade, travel, and other transactions between individualause of trade, travel, and other transactions between individual

s and business enterprises of different countries, it becomes necs and business enterprises of different countries, it becomes nec

essary to essary to convert money into the currency of other countries in money into the currency of other countries in

order to pay for goods or services in those countries. order to pay for goods or services in those countries.

Text :Text :

Ordinarily, and without government restrictions, the rate of Ordinarily, and without government restrictions, the rate of

exchange, or the price of the currency of one country exchange, or the price of the currency of one country

in terms of that of another, will depend on overall supply and dethat of another, will depend on overall supply and de

mand and on the relative purchasing power of the two currencimand and on the relative purchasing power of the two currenci

es, that is, on the competitive position of the two countries in wes, that is, on the competitive position of the two countries in w

orld market. Changes of foreign exchange rates are orld market. Changes of foreign exchange rates are notoriously

hard to forecast. Any factor that changes the expected returns hard to forecast. Any factor that changes the expected returns

on domestic or foreign deposits will lead to changes in the exchon domestic or foreign deposits will lead to changes in the exch

ange.ange.

Text B:Text B:

Text : Language PointsText : Language Points

refer to refer to 指的是，引用，谈及指的是，引用，谈及

That remark refers to someone else. That remark refers to someone else.

那句话是指另一人说的。那句话是指另一人说的。

This obviously This obviously refersrefers toto the Nile. the Nile.

这里说的显然是尼罗河。这里说的显然是尼罗河。

He usually He usually refersrefers his pupils his pupils toto this dictionary. this dictionary.

他平常叫学生查这本字典。他平常叫学生查这本字典。

refer to refer to 指的是，引用，谈及指的是，引用，谈及

That remark refers to someone else. That remark refers to someone else.

那句话是指另一人说的。那句话是指另一人说的。

This obviously This obviously refersrefers toto the Nile. the Nile.

这里说的显然是尼罗河。这里说的显然是尼罗河。

He usually He usually refersrefers his pupils his pupils toto this dictionary. this dictionary.

他平常叫学生查这本字典。他平常叫学生查这本字典。


equivalent valueequivalent value 等值等值 ,,当量值当量值 , , 等效值等效值 , , 换算值换算值 equivalentequivalent adj. adj. 相等的相等的 , , 相当的相当的 , , 相同的相同的 Yet this was smaller than the concurrent decline of 4.3 per cent iYet this was smaller than the concurrent decline of 4.3 per cent i

n GDP in value terms, due to a net factor income inflow to n GDP in value terms, due to a net factor income inflow to TianjiTianjinn equivalent to about 1.9 per cent of GDP in that year. equivalent to about 1.9 per cent of GDP in that year. 不过，这个跌幅已较同期以价值计算本地生产总值的不过，这个跌幅已较同期以价值计算本地生产总值的 4.3%4.3%跌幅为小，因为该年天津有相当于本地生产总值约跌幅为小，因为该年天津有相当于本地生产总值约 1.9%1.9%的的对外要素收入流动净值。对外要素收入流动净值。

be equivalent tobe equivalent to 相等相等 [[当当 ]]于于 ..., ..., 等等 ((同同 ))于于 , , 与与 ... ... 等效等效 What is What is ￡￡ 5 equivalent to in French francs?5 equivalent to in French francs?

55英镑相当于多少法国法郎？英镑相当于多少法国法郎？

equivalent valueequivalent value 等值等值 ,,当量值当量值 , , 等效值等效值 , , 换算值换算值 equivalentequivalent adj. adj. 相等的相等的 , , 相当的相当的 , , 相同的相同的 Yet this was smaller than the concurrent decline of 4.3 per cent iYet this was smaller than the concurrent decline of 4.3 per cent i

n GDP in value terms, due to a net factor income inflow to n GDP in value terms, due to a net factor income inflow to TianjiTianjinn equivalent to about 1.9 per cent of GDP in that year. equivalent to about 1.9 per cent of GDP in that year. 不过，这个跌幅已较同期以价值计算本地生产总值的不过，这个跌幅已较同期以价值计算本地生产总值的 4.3%4.3%跌幅为小，因为该年天津有相当于本地生产总值约跌幅为小，因为该年天津有相当于本地生产总值约 1.9%1.9%的的对外要素收入流动净值。对外要素收入流动净值。

be equivalent tobe equivalent to 相等相等 [[当当 ]]于于 ..., ..., 等等 ((同同 ))于于 , , 与与 ... ... 等效等效 What is What is ￡￡ 5 equivalent to in French francs?5 equivalent to in French francs?

55英镑相当于多少法国法郎？英镑相当于多少法国法郎？

in accordance with in accordance with 与与 ......一致一致 , , 依照依照

Foreign exchange is a commodity and its price fluctuates in Foreign exchange is a commodity and its price fluctuates in

accordance with supply and demand. accordance with supply and demand.

外汇是一种商品，它的价格随着供求的变化而上下浮动。外汇是一种商品，它的价格随着供求的变化而上下浮动。

He acted He acted inin accordanceaccordance withwith his beliefs. his beliefs.

他按照自己的信念行事。他按照自己的信念行事。



involve vt.involve vt. 使卷入使卷入 ;;包括包括 ; ; 包含包含 ; ; 涉及涉及

All these questions All these questions involveinvolve policy and tactics. policy and tactics.

这些问题，都涉及政策和策略。这些问题，都涉及政策和策略。

He was involved in working out a plan. He was involved in working out a plan.

他专心致志地制订计划。他专心致志地制订计划。

Don't Don't involveinvolve me in your mistakes. me in your mistakes.

别把我牵连进你的错误里。别把我牵连进你的错误里。

involve vt.involve vt. 使卷入使卷入 ;;包括包括 ; ; 包含包含 ; ; 涉及涉及

All these questions All these questions involveinvolve policy and tactics. policy and tactics.

这些问题，都涉及政策和策略。这些问题，都涉及政策和策略。

He was involved in working out a plan. He was involved in working out a plan.

他专心致志地制订计划。他专心致志地制订计划。

Don't Don't involveinvolve me in your mistakes. me in your mistakes.

别把我牵连进你的错误里。别把我牵连进你的错误里。


convert（可）转变为；兑换为；转而使用

At what rate does the dollar convert into pounds?

美元以什么汇率兑换成英镑？

John has converted to Buddhism.

约翰改信佛教。

He converted assets into cash before he went abroad.

他在出国前把资产转化成了现金。

convert（可）转变为；兑换为；转而使用

At what rate does the dollar convert into pounds?

美元以什么汇率兑换成英镑？

John has converted to Buddhism.

约翰改信佛教。

He converted assets into cash before he went abroad.

他在出国前把资产转化成了现金。


conversion n.conversion n. 转变转变

Your case requires a license for conversion and outgoing Your case requires a license for conversion and outgoing

remittance.remittance.

您这种情况要求有换汇和会出许可。您这种情况要求有换汇和会出许可。

He has undergone a religious He has undergone a religious conversion after he went to conversion after he went to

AmericaAmerica. .

他来到美国后，经历了一次宗教信仰的转变。他来到美国后，经历了一次宗教信仰的转变。

conversion n.conversion n. 转变转变

Your case requires a license for conversion and outgoing Your case requires a license for conversion and outgoing

remittance.remittance.

您这种情况要求有换汇和会出许可。您这种情况要求有换汇和会出许可。

He has undergone a religious He has undergone a religious conversion after he went to conversion after he went to

AmericaAmerica. .

他来到美国后，经历了一次宗教信仰的转变。他来到美国后，经历了一次宗教信仰的转变。


in terms of 根据 , 按照 , 用 ...的话 , 在 ...方面

Payment is made Payment is made inin termsterms ofof cash . cash .

款项以现金支付。款项以现金支付。

You could think You could think ofof it it inin termsterms ofof an investment. an investment.

你可以从投资的角度来考虑那件事。你可以从投资的角度来考虑那件事。

in terms of 根据 , 按照 , 用 ...的话 , 在 ...方面

Payment is made Payment is made inin termsterms ofof cash . cash .

款项以现金支付。款项以现金支付。

You could think You could think ofof it it inin termsterms ofof an investment. an investment.

你可以从投资的角度来考虑那件事。你可以从投资的角度来考虑那件事。


notoriously ad. notoriously ad. 臭名昭著的臭名昭著的 , , 声名狼藉的声名狼藉的 Many existing retailers have done a Many existing retailers have done a notoriouslynotoriously poor job of util poor job of util

izing izing

customer information to datecustomer information to date ．．迄今，很多现有的零售商在利用顾客信息方面做得极其差。迄今，很多现有的零售商在利用顾客信息方面做得极其差。 To some, such extravagant spending on the To some, such extravagant spending on the notoriouslynotoriously fickle y fickle y

oung might seem outrageous. oung might seem outrageous.

有些人反对花很多钱给小毛孩买奢侈品，认为是种浪费。有些人反对花很多钱给小毛孩买奢侈品，认为是种浪费。 One threat that is One threat that is notoriouslynotoriously difficult to quantify is the illegal difficult to quantify is the illegal

pet trade. pet trade.

一个众所周知的难以确定的威胁来自非法宠物交易。一个众所周知的难以确定的威胁来自非法宠物交易。

notoriously ad. notoriously ad. 臭名昭著的臭名昭著的 , , 声名狼藉的声名狼藉的 Many existing retailers have done a Many existing retailers have done a notoriouslynotoriously poor job of util poor job of util

izing izing

customer information to datecustomer information to date ．．迄今，很多现有的零售商在利用顾客信息方面做得极其差。迄今，很多现有的零售商在利用顾客信息方面做得极其差。 To some, such extravagant spending on the To some, such extravagant spending on the notoriouslynotoriously fickle y fickle y

oung might seem outrageous. oung might seem outrageous.

有些人反对花很多钱给小毛孩买奢侈品，认为是种浪费。有些人反对花很多钱给小毛孩买奢侈品，认为是种浪费。 One threat that is One threat that is notoriouslynotoriously difficult to quantify is the illegal difficult to quantify is the illegal

pet trade. pet trade.

一个众所周知的难以确定的威胁来自非法宠物交易。一个众所周知的难以确定的威胁来自非法宠物交易。

Text B: Reading SkillText B: Reading Skill

Check-upCheck-up

1.1. His His creditcredit is good for only is good for only ￡￡ 50 50 ..

A) good opinion of othersA) good opinion of others

B) reputation coming from the approval or good B) reputation coming from the approval or good

opinion of othersopinion of others

C) a sum of moneyC) a sum of money available for a person's useavailable for a person's use


















Check-upCheck-up

2.2. The bank refused further The bank refused further creditscredits to the company. to the company.

A) reputation coming from the approval or A) reputation coming from the approval or

good opinion of othersgood opinion of others

B) belief in the truth, reliability, quality, etc, B) belief in the truth, reliability, quality, etc,

of someone or somethingof someone or something

C) the sum of money that a bank makes available to C) the sum of money that a bank makes available to

a clienta client







a clienta client








a client a client







a client a client


Check-upCheck-up

3. The bank receives 3. The bank receives draftsdrafts payable at sight at any ti payable at sight at any ti

meme 。。

A) bill of exchange A) bill of exchange

B) an allowance on merchandise sold by weightB) an allowance on merchandise sold by weight

C) a group of livestock separated from the rest of thC) a group of livestock separated from the rest of th

e herde herd

3. The bank receives 3. The bank receives draftsdrafts payable at sight at any ti payable at sight at any ti

meme 。。

A) bill of exchange A) bill of exchange


C) a group of livestock separated from the rest of thC) a group of livestock separated from the rest of th

e herde herd


3. The bank receives 3. The bank receives draftsdrafts payable at sight at any time payable at sight at any time 。。

A) bill of exchangeA) bill of exchange


C) a group of livestock separated from the rest of the herC) a group of livestock separated from the rest of the her

dd

3. The bank receives 3. The bank receives draftsdrafts payable at sight at any time payable at sight at any time 。。

A) bill of exchangeA) bill of exchange


C) a group of livestock separated from the rest of the herC) a group of livestock separated from the rest of the her

dd


A) to bring into or hold in equilibriumA) to bring into or hold in equilibrium

B) be equal toB) be equal to

C) to have the debit and credit totals eC) to have the debit and credit totals e

qualqual

A) to bring into or hold in equilibriumA) to bring into or hold in equilibrium



qualqual

A) calmness of mind A) calmness of mind

B) harmony in the parts of a whole B) harmony in the parts of a whole

C) a state of equilibriumC) a state of equilibrium




Check-upCheck-up

4. She 4. She balances herself on the balance beam with a single arm.


http://dj.iciba.com/balances/

http://dj.iciba.com/balance/




A) to bring into or hold in equilibrium A) to bring into or hold in equilibrium



qualqual

A) to bring into or hold in equilibrium A) to bring into or hold in equilibrium



qualqual














Check-upCheck-up

5. Every citizen may 5. Every citizen may claimclaim the protection of the law. the protection of the law.

A) to takeA) to take

B) to call for or need;B) to call for or need;

C) assert one's title or right toC) assert one's title or right to


A) to takeA) to take





A) to take A) to take




A) to take A) to take



• Listening

• Language Points

Guessing Unknown Words and ExpressionsGuessing Unknown Words and Expressions

TextText

ListeningListening

TextText

9.2 Theories of foreign exchange rate9.2 Theories of foreign exchange rate 9.2 Theories of foreign exchange rate9.2 Theories of foreign exchange rate

Listen carefully to the second part of the text and Listen carefully to the second part of the text and then try to translate it. then try to translate it.

9.2 Theories of foreign exchange rate9.2 Theories of foreign exchange rate

In a In a fixed exchange ratefixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are regime, FX rates are

decided by its government. The following theories decided by its government. The following theories

explain the explain the fluctuationsfluctuations in FX rates in a floating in FX rates in a floating

exchange rate regime.exchange rate regime.

Text :Text :

INTERNATIONAL PARITY CONDITIONS INTERNATIONAL PARITY CONDITIONS

International parity conditions, viz.: International parity conditions, viz.: Purchasing power parity

, Interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect,

International Fisher effect.

Though Though to some extent the above theories provide logical

explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these

theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions (e.g.,

free flow of goods, services and capital) which seldom hold truehold true in in

the real world.the real world.

Text :Text :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_rate_parity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher_hypothesis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Fisher_effect

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MODELBALANCE OF PAYMENTS MODEL

This model, however, This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and

services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It . It

failed to provide any explanation for continuous failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of of

dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring

US US current current account deficit..

Text :Text :

ASSET MARKET MODEL ASSET MARKET MODEL

It It viewsviews currencies currencies asas an important asset class for an important asset class for

constructing investment constructing investment portfolios. Assets prices are influenced . Assets prices are influenced

mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of

assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the

future worth of these assets. The asset market model of future worth of these assets. The asset market model of

exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate

between two currencies represents the price that just balances between two currencies represents the price that just balances

the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in

those currencies.”those currencies.”

Text :Text :

None of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX rNone of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX r

ates levels and ates levels and volatilityvolatility in the longer time frames. For shorter t in the longer time frames. For shorter t

ime frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to pime frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to p

redict prices. Large and small institutions and professional indiredict prices. Large and small institutions and professional indi

vidual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is undersvidual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is unders

tood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affetood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affe

ct the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a resulct the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a resul

t of dual forces of demand and supply.t of dual forces of demand and supply.

Text :Text :

The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge meltThe world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge melt

ing pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, suping pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, sup

ply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of ply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of

one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other

market encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on imarket encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on i

n the world at any given time as foreign exchange.n the world at any given time as foreign exchange.

Text :Text :

International Parity Conditions

• Exchange rates are influenced by interest rates and inflation rates, and together, they influence markets for exchange rates in the future, known as forward rates.

• The linkages among these variables are called Parity Conditions.

• Parity Conditions are key relationships used to predict movements in exchange rates.

2005 South-Western Publishing

Interest Rate Parity• If interest rates in Europe were higher than they were in the US,

no one would invest in the US so long as they thought the Euro and dollar would be stable.

• The equilibrium condition is known as interest rate parity. • Let e0 be the current exchange rate price for a foreign currency.

An approximation of this parity condition is given as:

(f90 – e0) / e0 = [rUS - rEMU] Interest Rate Parity

• Suppose interest rates in the Europe are 1% for 90 days, and only .5% in the US. We would expect the value of the Euro must fall to make investing in both countries end up with the same return.

• Using the formula above, the left side is the expected forward discount. (f90 – e0) / e0 = -.005, or a half percent expected drop in the Euro over the next 90 days (3 months).

The Fischer Effect• Domestic interest rates, r, are the sum of a real

return, i, and an expected change in the price level, Ex(%CPI), which is the inflation rate.

r = i + Ex(%CPI) • It is often presumed that real returns become equal

world wide. In that case, the Fisher Effect can be used to examine differences in two country’s interest rates. For the example of the US and the EMU, we have:

[rUS - rEMU ] = Ex(%CPI)US - Ex(%CPI)EMU

• This equation is known as the international fisher effect.

International Fischer Effect

• Since differences in inflation rates tend to lead to differences in interest rates, we can use differences in interests rates predict changes in exchange rates.

[et – e0]/e0 = [rUS - rEMU] • Suppose that the left side of the above equation is th

e percentage change in the value of the Euro measured in dollars.

• When the US has higher interest rates, the Euro rises in value.

• When interest rates are higher in Europe, the Euro will decline in value.

Diagram of Parity ConditionsExchange Rate Forecasts

Differences in Interest Rates

InternationalFischer Effect

Differences in Inflation Rates

Forward RatePremium or

Discount

Interest Rate Parity

Fisher Effect

Purchasing Power Parity


fixed exchange rate fixed exchange rate 固定汇率固定汇率

What’s the exchange rate? What’s the exchange rate?

兑换率是多少？兑换率是多少？

The note-issuing banks may issue currency notes only by surrThe note-issuing banks may issue currency notes only by surr

endering non-interest-bearing US dollar backing at a fixed exendering non-interest-bearing US dollar backing at a fixed ex

change rate of 7.80. change rate of 7.80.

发钞银行必须按发钞银行必须按 7.87.8的固定汇率交出无息美元保证，才可的固定汇率交出无息美元保证，才可发行流通纸币。发行流通纸币。

fixed exchange rate fixed exchange rate 固定汇率固定汇率

What’s the exchange rate? What’s the exchange rate?

兑换率是多少？兑换率是多少？

The note-issuing banks may issue currency notes only by surrThe note-issuing banks may issue currency notes only by surr

endering non-interest-bearing US dollar backing at a fixed exendering non-interest-bearing US dollar backing at a fixed ex

change rate of 7.80. change rate of 7.80.

发钞银行必须按发钞银行必须按 7.87.8的固定汇率交出无息美元保证，才可的固定汇率交出无息美元保证，才可发行流通纸币。发行流通纸币。


fluctuation fluctuation n.n. 波动波动 , , 上下移动上下移动 , , 徘徊徘徊 ; ; 涨落涨落 ;;

The market steadied after last week’s fluctuation. The market steadied after last week’s fluctuation.

继上周的波动之后，市场稳定下来了。继上周的波动之后，市场稳定下来了。

The wide price fluctuation in the international market reduce The wide price fluctuation in the international market reduce

business difficult. business difficult.

国际市场上大幅度的价格波动使得生意很难做。国际市场上大幅度的价格波动使得生意很难做。

fluctuation fluctuation n.n. 波动波动 , , 上下移动上下移动 , , 徘徊徘徊 ; ; 涨落涨落 ;;

The market steadied after last week’s fluctuation. The market steadied after last week’s fluctuation.

继上周的波动之后，市场稳定下来了。继上周的波动之后，市场稳定下来了。

The wide price fluctuation in the international market reduce The wide price fluctuation in the international market reduce

business difficult. business difficult.

国际市场上大幅度的价格波动使得生意很难做。国际市场上大幅度的价格波动使得生意很难做。


to some extent to some extent 某种程度上某种程度上 , (, (多少多少 ))有一点有一点

National economic growth accelerated to some extent. National economic growth accelerated to some extent.

国民经济增长速度有所加快。国民经济增长速度有所加快。

The criticism is to some extent justified. The criticism is to some extent justified.

这一批评在一定程度上是有道理的。这一批评在一定程度上是有道理的。

to some extent to some extent 某种程度上某种程度上 , (, (多少多少 ))有一点有一点

National economic growth accelerated to some extent. National economic growth accelerated to some extent.

国民经济增长速度有所加快。国民经济增长速度有所加快。

The criticism is to some extent justified. The criticism is to some extent justified.

这一批评在一定程度上是有道理的。这一批评在一定程度上是有道理的。


based on based on vt.vt. （与（与 on, uponon, upon 连用）根据；基于连用）根据；基于

Advertisements based on these facts have been printed in Advertisements based on these facts have been printed in

newspapers and magazines but have not helped much. newspapers and magazines but have not helped much.

根据这些情况拟定的广告词登载在报纸和杂志上根据这些情况拟定的广告词登载在报纸和杂志上 ,,但是但是

效果不大。效果不大。

This news report is based entirely on fact. This news report is based entirely on fact.

这篇新闻报导是完全根据实际情况写成的。这篇新闻报导是完全根据实际情况写成的。

based on based on vt.vt. （与（与 on, uponon, upon 连用）根据；基于连用）根据；基于

Advertisements based on these facts have been printed in Advertisements based on these facts have been printed in

newspapers and magazines but have not helped much. newspapers and magazines but have not helped much.

根据这些情况拟定的广告词登载在报纸和杂志上根据这些情况拟定的广告词登载在报纸和杂志上 ,,但是但是

效果不大。效果不大。

This news report is based entirely on fact. This news report is based entirely on fact.

这篇新闻报导是完全根据实际情况写成的。这篇新闻报导是完全根据实际情况写成的。


hold true hold true 适用适用 , , 有效有效

I believe those principles I believe those principles holdhold truetrue for everyone, everywhere. for everyone, everywhere.

我相信，这些道理在任何地方、对任何人都是至理名言。我相信，这些道理在任何地方、对任何人都是至理名言。

The principle of equality cited in this book does not The principle of equality cited in this book does not holdhold trutru

ee in that part of the world. in that part of the world.

他书中的平等原则在世界那一地区并不适用。他书中的平等原则在世界那一地区并不适用。

hold true hold true 适用适用 , , 有效有效

I believe those principles I believe those principles holdhold truetrue for everyone, everywhere. for everyone, everywhere.

我相信，这些道理在任何地方、对任何人都是至理名言。我相信，这些道理在任何地方、对任何人都是至理名言。

The principle of equality cited in this book does not The principle of equality cited in this book does not holdhold trutru

ee in that part of the world. in that part of the world.

他书中的平等原则在世界那一地区并不适用。他书中的平等原则在世界那一地区并不适用。


focus on focus on 集中与…集中与…

I'd like to focus on two points. I'd like to focus on two points.

我这里主要讲两点。我这里主要讲两点。

You should focus your attention You should focus your attention on your work. your work.

你应把注意力集中在你的工作上。你应把注意力集中在你的工作上。

focus on focus on 集中与…集中与…

I'd like to focus on two points. I'd like to focus on two points.

我这里主要讲两点。我这里主要讲两点。

You should focus your attention You should focus your attention on your work. your work.

你应把注意力集中在你的工作上。你应把注意力集中在你的工作上。

http://dj.iciba.com/on/

http://dj.iciba.com/on/


capital flows capital flows 资本流动资本流动 Short-term capital flows include the normal everyday receiptsShort-term capital flows include the normal everyday receipts

and payments arising out of international trade and finance. and payments arising out of international trade and finance. 短期资本流动包括在国际贸易和国际金融中发生的日常收入和短期资本流动包括在国际贸易和国际金融中发生的日常收入和支出。支出。

The absence of any restrictions on capital flows into and out of The absence of any restrictions on capital flows into and out of

China is another important factor. China is another important factor. 此外，资金可以自由流入和流出中国，也是一项重要的因素。此外，资金可以自由流入和流出中国，也是一项重要的因素。

capital flow capital flow 资本流动资本流动 trade flow trade flow 贸易流量贸易流量 order flow order flow 订单量订单量

capital flows capital flows 资本流动资本流动 Short-term capital flows include the normal everyday receiptsShort-term capital flows include the normal everyday receipts

and payments arising out of international trade and finance. and payments arising out of international trade and finance. 短期资本流动包括在国际贸易和国际金融中发生的日常收入和短期资本流动包括在国际贸易和国际金融中发生的日常收入和支出。支出。

The absence of any restrictions on capital flows into and out of The absence of any restrictions on capital flows into and out of

China is another important factor. China is another important factor. 此外，资金可以自由流入和流出中国，也是一项重要的因素。此外，资金可以自由流入和流出中国，也是一项重要的因素。

capital flow capital flow 资本流动资本流动 trade flow trade flow 贸易流量贸易流量 order flow order flow 订单量订单量


appreciation appreciation n. n. 涨价涨价 , , 增值增值

The growing demand for the currency of this country will cause its The growing demand for the currency of this country will cause its

external value to appreciate.external value to appreciate.

对一国货币不断增加的需求将造成该货币对外升值。对一国货币不断增加的需求将造成该货币对外升值。

depreciate depreciate vi.vi. 使跌价使跌价 , , 贬值贬值

If the domestic inflation is expected to increase, the domestic If the domestic inflation is expected to increase, the domestic

currency will depreciate.currency will depreciate.

如果预期本国通胀上升，那么本币将贬值。如果预期本国通胀上升，那么本币将贬值。

appreciation appreciation n. n. 涨价涨价 , , 增值增值

The growing demand for the currency of this country will cause its The growing demand for the currency of this country will cause its

external value to appreciate.external value to appreciate.

对一国货币不断增加的需求将造成该货币对外升值。对一国货币不断增加的需求将造成该货币对外升值。

depreciate depreciate vi.vi. 使跌价使跌价 , , 贬值贬值

If the domestic inflation is expected to increase, the domestic If the domestic inflation is expected to increase, the domestic

currency will depreciate.currency will depreciate.

如果预期本国通胀上升，那么本币将贬值。如果预期本国通胀上升，那么本币将贬值。


current account deficit current account deficit 经常帐赤字经常帐赤字

deficit deficit n. n. 赤字赤字

One of the main functions of banks is to take in deposit from surOne of the main functions of banks is to take in deposit from sur

plus regions.plus regions.

银行的主要功能之一是从资金剩余地区吸收存款然后贷给银行的主要功能之一是从资金剩余地区吸收存款然后贷给

资金缺乏地区。资金缺乏地区。

Some countries are running staggering budget deficits in the worSome countries are running staggering budget deficits in the wor

ld now.ld now.

目前，世界上一些国家正面临预算赤字。目前，世界上一些国家正面临预算赤字。

current account deficit current account deficit 经常帐赤字经常帐赤字

deficit deficit n. n. 赤字赤字

One of the main functions of banks is to take in deposit from surOne of the main functions of banks is to take in deposit from sur

plus regions.plus regions.

银行的主要功能之一是从资金剩余地区吸收存款然后贷给银行的主要功能之一是从资金剩余地区吸收存款然后贷给

资金缺乏地区。资金缺乏地区。

Some countries are running staggering budget deficits in the worSome countries are running staggering budget deficits in the wor

ld now.ld now.

目前，世界上一些国家正面临预算赤字。目前，世界上一些国家正面临预算赤字。


view asview as 将…看作将…看作

be viewed as be viewed as 被看作是被看作是

He He viewedviewed lawyers lawyers asas the real enemy. the real enemy.

他认为律师是真正的敌人。他认为律师是真正的敌人。

All these are now All these are now viewedviewed asas necessaries. necessaries.

这些现在都看作是必需品了。这些现在都看作是必需品了。

view asview as 将…看作将…看作

be viewed as be viewed as 被看作是被看作是

He He viewedviewed lawyers lawyers asas the real enemy. the real enemy.

他认为律师是真正的敌人。他认为律师是真正的敌人。

All these are now All these are now viewedviewed asas necessaries. necessaries.

这些现在都看作是必需品了。这些现在都看作是必需品了。


portfolios portfolios n.n.组合组合

As the fund manager pools the funds from many investors, he cAs the fund manager pools the funds from many investors, he c

an invest in a diversified portfolio that offers lower risk. an invest in a diversified portfolio that offers lower risk.

负责管理基金的专业经理会集合许多投资者的资金，负责管理基金的专业经理会集合许多投资者的资金，

组成一个风险分散的投资组合。组成一个风险分散的投资组合。

A portforlio manager can hedge against an increase in the purA portforlio manager can hedge against an increase in the pur

chase price of bonds using interest rate futures.chase price of bonds using interest rate futures.

有价证券管理者可以用利率期货来防范因债券买价升高而有价证券管理者可以用利率期货来防范因债券买价升高而带来的损失。带来的损失。

portfolios portfolios n.n.组合组合

As the fund manager pools the funds from many investors, he cAs the fund manager pools the funds from many investors, he c

an invest in a diversified portfolio that offers lower risk. an invest in a diversified portfolio that offers lower risk.

负责管理基金的专业经理会集合许多投资者的资金，负责管理基金的专业经理会集合许多投资者的资金，

组成一个风险分散的投资组合。组成一个风险分散的投资组合。

A portforlio manager can hedge against an increase in the purA portforlio manager can hedge against an increase in the pur

chase price of bonds using interest rate futures.chase price of bonds using interest rate futures.

有价证券管理者可以用利率期货来防范因债券买价升高而有价证券管理者可以用利率期货来防范因债券买价升高而带来的损失。带来的损失。

volatility volatility n.n.不稳定性不稳定性 , , 暂时性暂时性

Therefore, investors should be mindful of the volatility of the stTherefore, investors should be mindful of the volatility of the st

ockmarket. ockmarket.

　　　　因此，投资者应小心股票市场波动。因此，投资者应小心股票市场波动。

Interest rates and financial market volatility would remain high Interest rates and financial market volatility would remain high

due to the market uncertainty. due to the market uncertainty.

市场前景不明朗，亦会令利率持续高企，金融市场持续波市场前景不明朗，亦会令利率持续高企，金融市场持续波动。动。



ever-changingever-changing 变幻无穷变幻无穷

She feasted her eyes on the ever-changing scenery of rare beauty.She feasted her eyes on the ever-changing scenery of rare beauty.

她尽情观赏那变幻无穷的、难得一见的美景。她尽情观赏那变幻无穷的、难得一见的美景。

Video conferencing is well positioned to help companies who hVideo conferencing is well positioned to help companies who h

ave a heavy reliance on immediate employee communications to ave a heavy reliance on immediate employee communications to

meet this need in the meet this need in the everever changingchanging working environment. working environment.

在不断变化的工作环境中，电视会议被完全定位成帮助那在不断变化的工作环境中，电视会议被完全定位成帮助那些与雇员即时通信依赖性很高的公司，以满足其通信需求。些与雇员即时通信依赖性很高的公司，以满足其通信需求。

ever-changingever-changing 变幻无穷变幻无穷

She feasted her eyes on the ever-changing scenery of rare beauty.She feasted her eyes on the ever-changing scenery of rare beauty.

她尽情观赏那变幻无穷的、难得一见的美景。她尽情观赏那变幻无穷的、难得一见的美景。

Video conferencing is well positioned to help companies who hVideo conferencing is well positioned to help companies who h

ave a heavy reliance on immediate employee communications to ave a heavy reliance on immediate employee communications to

meet this need in the meet this need in the everever changingchanging working environment. working environment.

在不断变化的工作环境中，电视会议被完全定位成帮助那在不断变化的工作环境中，电视会议被完全定位成帮助那些与雇员即时通信依赖性很高的公司，以满足其通信需求。些与雇员即时通信依赖性很高的公司，以满足其通信需求。

• Listening

• Text

TextText

ListeningListening

TextText

9.3 Determinants of FX rates9.3 Determinants of FX rates9.3 Determinants of FX rates9.3 Determinants of FX rates

Listen carefully to the third part of the text and Listen carefully to the third part of the text and then try to translate it. then try to translate it.

9.3 Determinants of FX rates9.3 Determinants of FX rates

Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its

value, are not influenced by any single element, but rather by value, are not influenced by any single element, but rather by

several. These elements generally several. These elements generally fall intofall into three categories: three categories:

economic factors, political conditions and market psychology.economic factors, political conditions and market psychology.

Text :Text :

ECONOMIC FACTORSECONOMIC FACTORS

These factors include: economic policy and economic These factors include: economic policy and economic

conditions. conditions.

Economic policy is disseminated by government agencies Economic policy is disseminated by government agencies

and and central banks, which comprises government fiscal policy

(budget/spending practices) and monetary policy (the means by

which a government's central bank influences the supply and "cost"

of money, which is reflected by the level of interest rates).

Text :Text :

Economic conditions are generally revealed throuEconomic conditions are generally revealed throu

gh economic reports, and other gh economic reports, and other economic indicators, w, w

hich include government budget deficits or surpluses, hich include government budget deficits or surpluses,

balance of trade levels and trends, inflation levels and balance of trade levels and trends, inflation levels and

trends, economic growth and health, as well as productrends, economic growth and health, as well as produc

tivity of an economy.tivity of an economy.

Text :Text :

Government budget deficits or surpluses: Government budget deficits or surpluses:

The market usually reacts negatively to widening The market usually reacts negatively to widening

government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget

deficits. The impact is reflected in the value of a country's deficits. The impact is reflected in the value of a country's

currency,.currency,.

Text :Text :

Balance of trade levels and trends: Balance of trade levels and trends:

The The trade flow between countries illustrates the demand for between countries illustrates the demand for

goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a

country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in

trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a

nation's economy. For example, nation's economy. For example, trade deficits may have a a

negative negative impact onimpact on a nation's currency. a nation's currency.

Text :Text :

Inflation levels and trends: Inflation levels and trends:

Typically a currency will lose value if there is a high level of Typically a currency will lose value if there is a high level of

inflationinflation in the country or if inflation levels are in the country or if inflation levels are perceivedperceived to be to be

rising. This is because inflation erodes purchasing power, thus rising. This is because inflation erodes purchasing power, thus

demand, for that particular currency. However, a currency demand, for that particular currency. However, a currency

may sometimes strengthen when inflation rises because of may sometimes strengthen when inflation rises because of

expectations that the central bank will raise short-term interest expectations that the central bank will raise short-term interest

rates to combat rising inflation.rates to combat rising inflation.

Text :Text :

Economic growth and health:Economic growth and health:

Reports such as gross domestic product (Reports such as gross domestic product (GDPGDP), ),

employment levels, employment levels, retail sales, capacity utilization and others, , capacity utilization and others,

detail the levels of a country's detail the levels of a country's economic growth and health. and health.

Generally, the more healthy and robust a country's economy, Generally, the more healthy and robust a country's economy,

the better its currency will perform, and the more demand for the better its currency will perform, and the more demand for

it there will be.it there will be.

Text :Text :

Productivity of an economy: Productivity of an economy:

Increasing productivity in an economy should positively Increasing productivity in an economy should positively

influence the value of its currency. Its affects are more influence the value of its currency. Its affects are more

prominent if the increase is in the traded sector.prominent if the increase is in the traded sector.

Text :Text :

POLITICAL CONDITIONSPOLITICAL CONDITIONS

Internal, regional, and international political conditions and Internal, regional, and international political conditions and

events can have a profound effect on currency markets. events can have a profound effect on currency markets.

Expectations of war between India and Pakistan can Expectations of war between India and Pakistan can

negatively influence the value of currencies of two nations.negatively influence the value of currencies of two nations.

Text :Text :

All exchange rates All exchange rates are are susceptible to to political instability and political instability and

anticipations about the new ruling party. Political anticipations about the new ruling party. Political upheaval and and

instability can have a negative impact on a nation's economy. Finstability can have a negative impact on a nation's economy. F

or example, destabilization of coalition governments in India, Por example, destabilization of coalition governments in India, P

akistan and Thailand can negatively affect the value of their cuakistan and Thailand can negatively affect the value of their cu

rrencies.rrencies.

Text :Text :

Similarly, in a country experiencing financial difficulties, thSimilarly, in a country experiencing financial difficulties, th

e rise of a e rise of a political faction that is perceived to be fiscally responsthat is perceived to be fiscally respons

ible can have the opposite effect. Also, events in one country in ible can have the opposite effect. Also, events in one country in

a region may spur positive or negative interest in a neighboring a region may spur positive or negative interest in a neighboring

country and, in the process, affect its currency.country and, in the process, affect its currency.

Text :Text :

MARKET PSYCHOLOGYMARKET PSYCHOLOGY

Market psychology and trader perceptions Market psychology and trader perceptions

influence the foreign exchange market in a influence the foreign exchange market in a

variety of ways:variety of ways:

Text :Text :

Flights to quality: Flights to quality:

Unsettling international events can lead to a "flight to Unsettling international events can lead to a "flight to

quality," with investors seeking a "safe haven". There will be a quality," with investors seeking a "safe haven". There will be a

greater demand, thus a higher price, for currencies perceived greater demand, thus a higher price, for currencies perceived

as stronger over their relatively weaker counterparts. The as stronger over their relatively weaker counterparts. The

Swiss franc has been a traditional safe haven during times of Swiss franc has been a traditional safe haven during times of

political or economic uncertainty.political or economic uncertainty.

Text :Text :

Long-term trends: Long-term trends:

Currency markets often move in visible long-term trends. Currency markets often move in visible long-term trends.

Although currencies do not have an annual growing season like Although currencies do not have an annual growing season like

physical commodities, business cycles do make themselves felt. physical commodities, business cycles do make themselves felt.

Cycle analysis looks at longer-term price trends that may rise Cycle analysis looks at longer-term price trends that may rise

from economic or political trends.from economic or political trends.

Text :Text :

"Buy the rumor, sell the fact." This market truism can appl"Buy the rumor, sell the fact." This market truism can appl

y to many currency situations. It is the tendency for the price of y to many currency situations. It is the tendency for the price of

a currency to reflect the impact of a particular action before it a currency to reflect the impact of a particular action before it

occurs and, when the anticipated event comes to pass, react in eoccurs and, when the anticipated event comes to pass, react in e

xactly the opposite direction. This may also be referred to as a xactly the opposite direction. This may also be referred to as a

market being "oversold" or "overbought".To buy the rumor omarket being "oversold" or "overbought".To buy the rumor o

r sell the fact can also be an example of the cognitive bias knowr sell the fact can also be an example of the cognitive bias know

n as anchoring, when investors focus too much on the relevance n as anchoring, when investors focus too much on the relevance

of outside events to currency prices.of outside events to currency prices.

Text :Text :

Economic numbers: Economic numbers:

While economic numbers can certainly reflect economic While economic numbers can certainly reflect economic

policy, some reports and numbers take on a talisman-like policy, some reports and numbers take on a talisman-like

effect: the number itself becomes important to market effect: the number itself becomes important to market

psychology and may have an immediate impact on short-term psychology and may have an immediate impact on short-term

market moves. "What to watch" can change over time. In market moves. "What to watch" can change over time. In

recent years, for example, money supply, employment, trade recent years, for example, money supply, employment, trade

balance figures and inflation numbers have all taken turns in balance figures and inflation numbers have all taken turns in

the spotlight.the spotlight.

Text :Text :

Technical trading considerations: Technical trading considerations:

As in other markets, the accumulated price movements in a As in other markets, the accumulated price movements in a

currency pair such as EUR/USD can form apparent patterns currency pair such as EUR/USD can form apparent patterns

that traders may attempt to use. Many traders study price that traders may attempt to use. Many traders study price

charts in order to identify such patterns.charts in order to identify such patterns.

Text :Text :

Algorithmic trading in forex:Algorithmic trading in forex:

Electronic trading is growing in the FX market, and algoritElectronic trading is growing in the FX market, and algorit

hmic trading is becoming much more common. According to fihmic trading is becoming much more common. According to fi

nancial consultancy Celent estimates, by 2008 up to 25% of all tnancial consultancy Celent estimates, by 2008 up to 25% of all t

rades by volume will be executed using algorithm, up from aborades by volume will be executed using algorithm, up from abo

ut 18% in 2005.ut 18% in 2005.

Text :Text :


fall into fall into 落入落入 , , 注入注入 , , 开始开始 , , 分成分成 , , 属于属于

We must not We must not fallfall intointo bad habits. bad habits.

我们不要养成坏习惯。我们不要养成坏习惯。

These two concepts fall into the same category . These two concepts fall into the same category .

这两个概念属于同一范畴。这两个概念属于同一范畴。

Unfortunately, the british soldier has fallenUnfortunately, the british soldier has fallen intointo the enemy’s the enemy’s

hands . hands .

不幸的是，那个英国士兵已落入敌人之手。不幸的是，那个英国士兵已落入敌人之手。

fall into fall into 落入落入 , , 注入注入 , , 开始开始 , , 分成分成 , , 属于属于

We must not We must not fallfall intointo bad habits. bad habits.

我们不要养成坏习惯。我们不要养成坏习惯。

These two concepts fall into the same category . These two concepts fall into the same category .

这两个概念属于同一范畴。这两个概念属于同一范畴。

Unfortunately, the british soldier has fallenUnfortunately, the british soldier has fallen intointo the enemy’s the enemy’s

hands . hands .

不幸的是，那个英国士兵已落入敌人之手。不幸的是，那个英国士兵已落入敌人之手。


central banks central banks 中央银行中央银行

By simply controlling the loans of state banks. the By simply controlling the loans of state banks. the centralcentral bank bank

still cannot control the total amount of currency supply. still cannot control the total amount of currency supply.

仅仅控制国家银行的贷款，中央银行达不到控制货币供应仅仅控制国家银行的贷款，中央银行达不到控制货币供应量的目的。量的目的。

The The centralcentral bank increased loans to commercial bank increased loans to commercial banksbanks to enabl to enabl

e them to increase credit. e them to increase credit.

增加对商业银行的再贷款，以增强金融机构贷款能力。增加对商业银行的再贷款，以增强金融机构贷款能力。

central banks central banks 中央银行中央银行

By simply controlling the loans of state banks. the By simply controlling the loans of state banks. the centralcentral bank bank

still cannot control the total amount of currency supply. still cannot control the total amount of currency supply.

仅仅控制国家银行的贷款，中央银行达不到控制货币供应仅仅控制国家银行的贷款，中央银行达不到控制货币供应量的目的。量的目的。

The The centralcentral bank increased loans to commercial bank increased loans to commercial banksbanks to enabl to enabl

e them to increase credit. e them to increase credit.

增加对商业银行的再贷款，以增强金融机构贷款能力。增加对商业银行的再贷款，以增强金融机构贷款能力。


fiscal policy fiscal policy 财政政策财政政策 , , 财务方针财务方针 There is room for manoeuvre - scope for There is room for manoeuvre - scope for fiscalfiscal policypolicy to suppor to suppor

t monetary t monetary policypolicy. . 在回旋退避的余地在回旋退避的余地 --财政政策支持货币政策的余地。财政政策支持货币政策的余地。

Hence, China adopted aggressive Hence, China adopted aggressive fiscalfiscal policypolicy and achieved gr and achieved great progress. eat progress. 针对这种状况，我国实行积极的或扩张的财政政策取得了针对这种状况，我国实行积极的或扩张的财政政策取得了成效。成效。

This is a This is a fiscalfiscal policypolicy of incurring budget deficits to stimulate a of incurring budget deficits to stimulate a weak economy. weak economy. 这是一项为刺激贫弱经济而引起预算赤字的财政政策。这是一项为刺激贫弱经济而引起预算赤字的财政政策。

fiscal policy fiscal policy 财政政策财政政策 , , 财务方针财务方针 There is room for manoeuvre - scope for There is room for manoeuvre - scope for fiscalfiscal policypolicy to suppor to suppor

t monetary t monetary policypolicy. . 在回旋退避的余地在回旋退避的余地 --财政政策支持货币政策的余地。财政政策支持货币政策的余地。

Hence, China adopted aggressive Hence, China adopted aggressive fiscalfiscal policypolicy and achieved gr and achieved great progress. eat progress. 针对这种状况，我国实行积极的或扩张的财政政策取得了针对这种状况，我国实行积极的或扩张的财政政策取得了成效。成效。

This is a This is a fiscalfiscal policypolicy of incurring budget deficits to stimulate a of incurring budget deficits to stimulate a weak economy. weak economy. 这是一项为刺激贫弱经济而引起预算赤字的财政政策。这是一项为刺激贫弱经济而引起预算赤字的财政政策。


monetary policy monetary policy 货币政策货币政策 FiscalFiscal and monetary and monetary policypolicy should provide support to the econo should provide support to the econo

my in the short to medium term. my in the short to medium term. 财政和货币政策应该在短期或中期内为经济发展提供帮助。财政和货币政策应该在短期或中期内为经济发展提供帮助。

A stable A stable monetarymonetary policypolicy was carried out, and more loans were was carried out, and more loans were made. made. 实施稳健的货币政策，贷款增加较多。实施稳健的货币政策，贷款增加较多。

China’s China’s monetarymonetary policypolicy objective is to maintain currency stabil objective is to maintain currency stability. ity. 中国的货币政策目标是维持货币稳定。中国的货币政策目标是维持货币稳定。

monetary policy monetary policy 货币政策货币政策 FiscalFiscal and monetary and monetary policypolicy should provide support to the econo should provide support to the econo

my in the short to medium term. my in the short to medium term. 财政和货币政策应该在短期或中期内为经济发展提供帮助。财政和货币政策应该在短期或中期内为经济发展提供帮助。

A stable A stable monetarymonetary policypolicy was carried out, and more loans were was carried out, and more loans were made. made. 实施稳健的货币政策，贷款增加较多。实施稳健的货币政策，贷款增加较多。

China’s China’s monetarymonetary policypolicy objective is to maintain currency stabil objective is to maintain currency stability. ity. 中国的货币政策目标是维持货币稳定。中国的货币政策目标是维持货币稳定。


interest rates interest rates 利率利率

High interest rates put a curb on spending. High interest rates put a curb on spending.

高利率抑制了消费高利率抑制了消费

InterestInterest ratesrates have declined, too. have declined, too.

利率也降低了。利率也降低了。

High High interestinterest ratesrates make credit expensive. make credit expensive.

由於利率很高由於利率很高 ,,赊购并不划算赊购并不划算 ..

interest rates interest rates 利率利率

High interest rates put a curb on spending. High interest rates put a curb on spending.

高利率抑制了消费高利率抑制了消费

InterestInterest ratesrates have declined, too. have declined, too.

利率也降低了。利率也降低了。

High High interestinterest ratesrates make credit expensive. make credit expensive.

由於利率很高由於利率很高 ,,赊购并不划算赊购并不划算 ..


economic indicatorseconomic indicators 经济指标经济指标 Each Each economiceconomic indicator tells us something about the economy o indicator tells us something about the economy o

r inflation. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is probably the most ir inflation. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is probably the most important report as it is the whole framework where other mportant report as it is the whole framework where other econoeconomicmic indicatorsindicators fall under. fall under. 每个经济指标都能给我们一些有关经济表现或通货膨胀的信每个经济指标都能给我们一些有关经济表现或通货膨胀的信息，其中应以国内生产总值最重要，因为它包括了全部的经息，其中应以国内生产总值最重要，因为它包括了全部的经济指标。济指标。

The Index of Leading The Index of Leading EconomicEconomic IndicatorsIndicators (LEI) in the US acts (LEI) in the US acts as an early warning system, telling us when the economy is abouas an early warning system, telling us when the economy is about to change direction. t to change direction. 领先经济指标指数在当地可是个预先警报系统，能显示经济领先经济指标指数在当地可是个预先警报系统，能显示经济是否正要转向。是否正要转向。

economic indicatorseconomic indicators 经济指标经济指标 Each Each economiceconomic indicator tells us something about the economy o indicator tells us something about the economy o

r inflation. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is probably the most ir inflation. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is probably the most important report as it is the whole framework where other mportant report as it is the whole framework where other econoeconomicmic indicatorsindicators fall under. fall under. 每个经济指标都能给我们一些有关经济表现或通货膨胀的信每个经济指标都能给我们一些有关经济表现或通货膨胀的信息，其中应以国内生产总值最重要，因为它包括了全部的经息，其中应以国内生产总值最重要，因为它包括了全部的经济指标。济指标。

The Index of Leading The Index of Leading EconomicEconomic IndicatorsIndicators (LEI) in the US acts (LEI) in the US acts as an early warning system, telling us when the economy is abouas an early warning system, telling us when the economy is about to change direction. t to change direction. 领先经济指标指数在当地可是个预先警报系统，能显示经济领先经济指标指数在当地可是个预先警报系统，能显示经济是否正要转向。是否正要转向。


trade flow trade flow 贸易流量贸易流量

With the ever increasing globalization in With the ever increasing globalization in tradetrade flow, funds flow, funds flofloww and information flow, competition across countries and regi and information flow, competition across countries and regions will intensify. ons will intensify. 随着贸易、资金和资讯的流通日趋全球化，各国和各个地随着贸易、资金和资讯的流通日趋全球化，各国和各个地区之间的竞争将会更为激烈。区之间的竞争将会更为激烈。

Tariffs and quotas are the two major forms of Tariffs and quotas are the two major forms of tradetrade restrictio restrictions ( or protectionism ) , which interfere with the free ns ( or protectionism ) , which interfere with the free flowflow of of ttraderade among nations. among nations. 关税和配额是贸易限制关税和配额是贸易限制 ((或保护主义或保护主义 ))的两种主要形式，的两种主要形式，它们干预了国家之间的自由贸易。它们干预了国家之间的自由贸易。

trade flow trade flow 贸易流量贸易流量

With the ever increasing globalization in With the ever increasing globalization in tradetrade flow, funds flow, funds flofloww and information flow, competition across countries and regi and information flow, competition across countries and regions will intensify. ons will intensify. 随着贸易、资金和资讯的流通日趋全球化，各国和各个地随着贸易、资金和资讯的流通日趋全球化，各国和各个地区之间的竞争将会更为激烈。区之间的竞争将会更为激烈。

Tariffs and quotas are the two major forms of Tariffs and quotas are the two major forms of tradetrade restrictio restrictions ( or protectionism ) , which interfere with the free ns ( or protectionism ) , which interfere with the free flowflow of of ttraderade among nations. among nations. 关税和配额是贸易限制关税和配额是贸易限制 ((或保护主义或保护主义 ))的两种主要形式，的两种主要形式，它们干预了国家之间的自由贸易。它们干预了国家之间的自由贸易。


trade deficits trade deficits 贸易赤字贸易赤字

First, there are clear signs that the Asian economies are generatinFirst, there are clear signs that the Asian economies are generatin

g g tradetrade surpluses, instead of surpluses, instead of tradetrade deficitsdeficits. .

第一，有清楚迹象显示，亚洲经济地区在贸易方面第一，有清楚迹象显示，亚洲经济地区在贸易方面

非但没有赤字，反而享有盈馀。非但没有赤字，反而享有盈馀。

Federal Federal deficitsdeficits can cause inflation. can cause inflation.

联邦赤字会引起通货膨胀联邦赤字会引起通货膨胀。。

trade deficits trade deficits 贸易赤字贸易赤字

First, there are clear signs that the Asian economies are generatinFirst, there are clear signs that the Asian economies are generatin

g g tradetrade surpluses, instead of surpluses, instead of tradetrade deficitsdeficits. .

第一，有清楚迹象显示，亚洲经济地区在贸易方面第一，有清楚迹象显示，亚洲经济地区在贸易方面

非但没有赤字，反而享有盈馀。非但没有赤字，反而享有盈馀。

Federal Federal deficitsdeficits can cause inflation. can cause inflation.

联邦赤字会引起通货膨胀联邦赤字会引起通货膨胀。。


have an impact on have an impact on 对对 ....起作用起作用 , , 产生效果产生效果

This will This will havehave anan impactimpact onon how the investor divides his mon how the investor divides his mon

ey among different countries and stocks. ey among different countries and stocks.

这将影响投资者把资金分配于不同市场和股票的决定。这将影响投资者把资金分配于不同市场和股票的决定。

To import too much grain would To import too much grain would havehave anan unfavorable unfavorable impactimpact

onon grain production at home as well as grain production at home as well as onon the employment of t the employment of t

he rural work force. he rural work force.

过多进口粮食，必然打击国内粮食生产，影响农民就业。过多进口粮食，必然打击国内粮食生产，影响农民就业。

have an impact on have an impact on 对对 ....起作用起作用 , , 产生效果产生效果

This will This will havehave anan impactimpact onon how the investor divides his mon how the investor divides his mon

ey among different countries and stocks. ey among different countries and stocks.

这将影响投资者把资金分配于不同市场和股票的决定。这将影响投资者把资金分配于不同市场和股票的决定。

To import too much grain would To import too much grain would havehave anan unfavorable unfavorable impactimpact

onon grain production at home as well as grain production at home as well as onon the employment of t the employment of t

he rural work force. he rural work force.

过多进口粮食，必然打击国内粮食生产，影响农民就业。过多进口粮食，必然打击国内粮食生产，影响农民就业。


inflation inflation 通货膨胀通货膨胀 ;;

InflationInflation is running at 25%. is running at 25%.

通货膨胀率达通货膨胀率达 25%25%。。

InflationInflation is slowing down. is slowing down.

通货膨胀的速度在放慢。通货膨胀的速度在放慢。

InflationInflation went on climbing. went on climbing.

通货膨胀继续高涨着。通货膨胀继续高涨着。

We must curb We must curb inflationinflation. .

我们必须控制通货膨胀。我们必须控制通货膨胀。

inflation inflation 通货膨胀通货膨胀 ;;

InflationInflation is running at 25%. is running at 25%.

通货膨胀率达通货膨胀率达 25%25%。。

InflationInflation is slowing down. is slowing down.

通货膨胀的速度在放慢。通货膨胀的速度在放慢。

InflationInflation went on climbing. went on climbing.

通货膨胀继续高涨着。通货膨胀继续高涨着。

We must curb We must curb inflationinflation. .

我们必须控制通货膨胀。我们必须控制通货膨胀。


perceive perceive vt.vt.感觉感觉 ; ; 知觉知觉 ,,觉察觉察 ;;

I perceived that I conld not make her change hI perceived that I conld not make her change h

er mind. er mind.

我发觉我不能使她改变她的主意。我发觉我不能使她改变她的主意。

Did you Did you perceiveperceive anyone come in? anyone come in?

你有没有发觉有人进来？你有没有发觉有人进来？

perceive perceive vt.vt.感觉感觉 ; ; 知觉知觉 ,,觉察觉察 ;;

I perceived that I conld not make her change hI perceived that I conld not make her change h

er mind. er mind.

我发觉我不能使她改变她的主意。我发觉我不能使她改变她的主意。

Did you Did you perceiveperceive anyone come in? anyone come in?

你有没有发觉有人进来？你有没有发觉有人进来？


purchasing power purchasing power 购买力，货币购买力购买力，货币购买力

Inflation erodes the Inflation erodes the purchasingpurchasing powerpower of the families of the families

with lower income. with lower income.

通货膨胀使低收入家庭的购买力不断下降。通货膨胀使低收入家庭的购买力不断下降。

Inflation reduces the Inflation reduces the purchasingpurchasing powerpower of people livi of people livi

ng on fixed income ng on fixed income

靠固定收入生活的人其购买力因通货膨胀而下降靠固定收入生活的人其购买力因通货膨胀而下降

purchasing power purchasing power 购买力，货币购买力购买力，货币购买力

Inflation erodes the Inflation erodes the purchasingpurchasing powerpower of the families of the families

with lower income. with lower income.

通货膨胀使低收入家庭的购买力不断下降。通货膨胀使低收入家庭的购买力不断下降。

Inflation reduces the Inflation reduces the purchasingpurchasing powerpower of people livi of people livi

ng on fixed income ng on fixed income

靠固定收入生活的人其购买力因通货膨胀而下降靠固定收入生活的人其购买力因通货膨胀而下降


GDPGDP Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product 国内生产总值国内生产总值

We expect We expect GDPGDP growth this year of around 5.5%. growth this year of around 5.5%.

我们预期，国民生产总值的增长率，大约为百分之五点五。我们预期，国民生产总值的增长率，大约为百分之五点五。

Annual government deficit must not exceed 3 per cent of Annual government deficit must not exceed 3 per cent of GDPGDP. .

每年政府的财政赤字必须低于国内生产总值的每年政府的财政赤字必须低于国内生产总值的 3%3%。。

I think the I think the GDPGDP will probably increase by 10% this year. will probably increase by 10% this year.

我认为今年的国内生产总值将很有可能增长我认为今年的国内生产总值将很有可能增长 10%10%。。

GDPGDP Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product 国内生产总值国内生产总值

We expect We expect GDPGDP growth this year of around 5.5%. growth this year of around 5.5%.

我们预期，国民生产总值的增长率，大约为百分之五点五。我们预期，国民生产总值的增长率，大约为百分之五点五。

Annual government deficit must not exceed 3 per cent of Annual government deficit must not exceed 3 per cent of GDPGDP. .

每年政府的财政赤字必须低于国内生产总值的每年政府的财政赤字必须低于国内生产总值的 3%3%。。

I think the I think the GDPGDP will probably increase by 10% this year. will probably increase by 10% this year.

我认为今年的国内生产总值将很有可能增长我认为今年的国内生产总值将很有可能增长 10%10%。。


retail salesretail sales 零售销售额零售销售额

Gross Gross retailretail salessales peaked at $3.1 billion in 1995-96. peaked at $3.1 billion in 1995-96.

19951995一一 19961996年度零售总额达到年度零售总额达到 3131亿美元的最高峰值。亿美元的最高峰值。

The total The total retailretail salessales of telecommunication equipment by whol of telecommunication equipment by whol

esale and esale and retailretail enterprises above designated size was up by 69. enterprises above designated size was up by 69.

2 percent over the previous year; 2 percent over the previous year;

限额以上批发零售贸易企业销售的通信器材类零售额比上限额以上批发零售贸易企业销售的通信器材类零售额比上年增长年增长 69.2%69.2%。。

retail salesretail sales 零售销售额零售销售额

Gross Gross retailretail salessales peaked at $3.1 billion in 1995-96. peaked at $3.1 billion in 1995-96.

19951995一一 19961996年度零售总额达到年度零售总额达到 3131亿美元的最高峰值。亿美元的最高峰值。

The total The total retailretail salessales of telecommunication equipment by whol of telecommunication equipment by whol

esale and esale and retailretail enterprises above designated size was up by 69. enterprises above designated size was up by 69.

2 percent over the previous year; 2 percent over the previous year;

限额以上批发零售贸易企业销售的通信器材类零售额比上限额以上批发零售贸易企业销售的通信器材类零售额比上年增长年增长 69.2%69.2%。。


economic growth economic growth 经济成长经济成长 , , 经济增长经济增长

This policy spurs the This policy spurs the economiceconomic growthgrowth on. on.

这一方针促进经济发展。这一方针促进经济发展。

Recently we throttled down Recently we throttled down economiceconomic growthgrowth. .

最近，我们放慢了经济发展的速度。最近，我们放慢了经济发展的速度。

China‘s China‘s economiceconomic growthgrowth picks up significantly . picks up significantly .

中国经济呈明显回升态势中国经济呈明显回升态势

economic growth economic growth 经济成长经济成长 , , 经济增长经济增长

This policy spurs the This policy spurs the economiceconomic growthgrowth on. on.

这一方针促进经济发展。这一方针促进经济发展。

Recently we throttled down Recently we throttled down economiceconomic growthgrowth. .

最近，我们放慢了经济发展的速度。最近，我们放慢了经济发展的速度。

China‘s China‘s economiceconomic growthgrowth picks up significantly . picks up significantly .

中国经济呈明显回升态势中国经济呈明显回升态势


be susceptible to be susceptible to 易受感动的易受感动的 , , 易受影响的易受影响的 , , 易感染易感染的的

Children Children areare more more susceptiblesusceptible toto colds than adults. colds than adults.

小孩比大人容易患感冒。小孩比大人容易患感冒。

But animals But animals areare generally not generally not susceptiblesusceptible toto the diseases that the diseases that

afflict humans. afflict humans.

但是动物对困扰人类的疾病往往不易感染。但是动物对困扰人类的疾病往往不易感染。

be susceptible to be susceptible to 易受感动的易受感动的 , , 易受影响的易受影响的 , , 易感染易感染的的

Children Children areare more more susceptiblesusceptible toto colds than adults. colds than adults.

小孩比大人容易患感冒。小孩比大人容易患感冒。

But animals But animals areare generally not generally not susceptiblesusceptible toto the diseases that the diseases that

afflict humans. afflict humans.

但是动物对困扰人类的疾病往往不易感染。但是动物对困扰人类的疾病往往不易感染。


upheaval upheaval 动乱动乱 ; ; 大变动大变动

These political These political upheavalupheaval may well destroy the whole framewor may well destroy the whole framewor

k of society. k of society.

这些政治动乱很可能会破坏整个社会结构。这些政治动乱很可能会破坏整个社会结构。

It was faced with the greatest social It was faced with the greatest social upheavalupheaval since World War since World War

ll. ll.

它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。

upheaval upheaval 动乱动乱 ; ; 大变动大变动

These political These political upheavalupheaval may well destroy the whole framewor may well destroy the whole framewor

k of society. k of society.

这些政治动乱很可能会破坏整个社会结构。这些政治动乱很可能会破坏整个社会结构。

It was faced with the greatest social It was faced with the greatest social upheavalupheaval since World War since World War

ll. ll.

它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。


political faction political faction 派性派性 ,,宗派宗派 , , 党派党派

His His factionfaction split off from the party. split off from the party.

他这个派系脱离了该党。他这个派系脱离了该党。

They were trying to from a They were trying to from a factionfaction behind the curtain. behind the curtain.

他们暗地里在拉帮结派。他们暗地里在拉帮结派。

During the negotiations the opposing During the negotiations the opposing factionfaction had us over a b had us over a b

arrel. arrel.

在谈判中，那个对抗的派别使我们一筹莫展在谈判中，那个对抗的派别使我们一筹莫展

political faction political faction 派性派性 ,,宗派宗派 , , 党派党派

His His factionfaction split off from the party. split off from the party.

他这个派系脱离了该党。他这个派系脱离了该党。

They were trying to from a They were trying to from a factionfaction behind the curtain. behind the curtain.

他们暗地里在拉帮结派。他们暗地里在拉帮结派。

During the negotiations the opposing During the negotiations the opposing factionfaction had us over a b had us over a b

arrel. arrel.

在谈判中，那个对抗的派别使我们一筹莫展在谈判中，那个对抗的派别使我们一筹莫展

I.Choose the best answer.I.Choose the best answer.

1. The price in the foreign exchange market is called1. The price in the foreign exchange market is called

A.A. the trade surplusthe trade surplus B. the exchange rateB. the exchange rate

C. the money price D. the currency rateC. the money price D. the currency rate

2. When GBP/USD rate goes from 1.6150 to 1.8500, we say the dollar __2. When GBP/USD rate goes from 1.6150 to 1.8500, we say the dollar __

__.__.

A. appreciates by 12.70%A. appreciates by 12.70% B. depreciates by 14.55%B. depreciates by 14.55%

C. depreciates by 12.70% D. appreciates by 14.55%C. depreciates by 12.70% D. appreciates by 14.55%

Text : Comprehension CheckText : Comprehension Check

Check-upCheck-upCheck-upCheck-up

1. The price in the foreign exchange market is called1. The price in the foreign exchange market is called

A.A. the trade surplusthe trade surplus B. the exchange rate B. the exchange rate

C. the money price D. the currency rateC. the money price D. the currency rate

2. When GBP/USD rate goes from 1.6150 to 1.8500, we say the dollar 2. When GBP/USD rate goes from 1.6150 to 1.8500, we say the dollar

____.____.

A. appreciates by 12.70%A. appreciates by 12.70% B. depreciates by 14.55% B. depreciates by 14.55%

C. depreciates by 12.70% D. appreciates by 14.55%C. depreciates by 12.70% D. appreciates by 14.55%


3. A possible disadvantage of freely fluctuating exchange rates with n3. A possible disadvantage of freely fluctuating exchange rates with n

o official intervention is that————.o official intervention is that————.

A. some nations would experience continual deficitsA. some nations would experience continual deficits

B. the exchange rates may experience wide and frequent fluctuationsB. the exchange rates may experience wide and frequent fluctuations

C.nations would no longer be able to undertake domestic policies desC.nations would no longer be able to undertake domestic policies des

igned to achieve and maintain full employment.igned to achieve and maintain full employment.

D. nations would need a larger supply of international reserves than D. nations would need a larger supply of international reserves than

otherwise.otherwise.



3. A possible disadvantage of freely fluctuating exchange rates with n3. A possible disadvantage of freely fluctuating exchange rates with n

o official intervention is that————.o official intervention is that————.

A. some nations would experience continual deficitsA. some nations would experience continual deficits

B. the exchange rates may experience wide and frequent fluctuationsB. the exchange rates may experience wide and frequent fluctuations

C.nations would no longer be able to undertake domestic policies desC.nations would no longer be able to undertake domestic policies des

igned to achieve and maintain full employment.igned to achieve and maintain full employment.

D. nations would need a larger supply of international reserves than D. nations would need a larger supply of international reserves than

otherwise.otherwise.


4. The term foreign exchange is best defined by the following 4. The term foreign exchange is best defined by the following

statement: it is ______.statement: it is ______.

A. the rate of exchange between two currenciesA. the rate of exchange between two currencies

B. synonymous with currency exchangeB. synonymous with currency exchange

C. the place in which foreign currencies are exchangedC. the place in which foreign currencies are exchanged

D. an instrument such as paper currency, note, and check used D. an instrument such as paper currency, note, and check used

to make payments between countriesto make payments between countries



4. The term foreign exchange is best defined by the following 4. The term foreign exchange is best defined by the following

statement: it is ______.statement: it is ______.

A. the rate of exchange between two currenciesA. the rate of exchange between two currencies

B. synonymous with currency exchangeB. synonymous with currency exchange

C. the place in which foreign currencies are exchangedC. the place in which foreign currencies are exchanged

D. an instrument such as paper currency, note, and check used D. an instrument such as paper currency, note, and check used

to make payments between countriesto make payments between countries


5. The economics news on the television reports that the dollar 5. The economics news on the television reports that the dollar

has strengthened relative to the Japanese yen. This means that has strengthened relative to the Japanese yen. This means that

______.______.

A. the dollar has depreciated relative to the yen A. the dollar has depreciated relative to the yen

B. the dollar can now purchase more yen B. the dollar can now purchase more yen

C. the yen can now purchase more dollars C. the yen can now purchase more dollars

D. the US trade balance with the JapaneseD. the US trade balance with the Japanese



5. The economics news on the television reports that the dollar 5. The economics news on the television reports that the dollar

has strengthened relative to the Japanese yen. This means that has strengthened relative to the Japanese yen. This means that

______.______.

A. the dollar has depreciated relative to the yen A. the dollar has depreciated relative to the yen

B. the dollar can now purchase more yen B. the dollar can now purchase more yen

C. the yen can now purchase more dollars C. the yen can now purchase more dollars

D. the US trade balance with the JapaneseD. the US trade balance with the Japanese


6. A fiscal expansion in the UK ______ the pound sterling.6. A fiscal expansion in the UK ______ the pound sterling.

A. tends to appreciate A. tends to appreciate

B. tends to depreciateB. tends to depreciate

C. does not affect the price of C. does not affect the price of

D. has no predictable effect on the price ofD. has no predictable effect on the price of



6. A fiscal expansion in the UK ______ the pound sterling.6. A fiscal expansion in the UK ______ the pound sterling.

A. tends to appreciateA. tends to appreciate

B. tends to depreciateB. tends to depreciate

C. does not affect the price of C. does not affect the price of

D. has no predictable effect on the price ofD. has no predictable effect on the price of


7. The theory of purchasing power parity states that 7. The theory of purchasing power parity states that

exchange rates between any two currencies will adjust to exchange rates between any two currencies will adjust to

reflect changes in ______.reflect changes in ______.

A. the price levels of the two countries A. the price levels of the two countries

B. the current account balances of the two countriesB. the current account balances of the two countries

C. the fiscal policies of the two countries C. the fiscal policies of the two countries

D. the trade balances of the two countriesD. the trade balances of the two countries



7. The theory of purchasing power parity states that 7. The theory of purchasing power parity states that

exchange rates between any two currencies will adjust to exchange rates between any two currencies will adjust to

reflect changes in ______.reflect changes in ______.

A. the price levels of the two countriesA. the price levels of the two countries

B. the current account balances of the two countriesB. the current account balances of the two countries

C. the fiscal policies of the two countries C. the fiscal policies of the two countries

D. the trade balances of the two countriesD. the trade balances of the two countries


II. True or FalseII. True or False

1. Balande of payment model lays great importance on the role of global capital 1. Balande of payment model lays great importance on the role of global capital

flows. flows. ( )( )

2. PPP provides logical explaniation for the fluctuations in exchange rate and re2. PPP provides logical explaniation for the fluctuations in exchange rate and re

mained fixed. mained fixed. ( )( )

3. The models mentioned in the text cannot succeed to explain FX rates levels an3. The models mentioned in the text cannot succeed to explain FX rates levels an

d volatility in the longer time frame. d volatility in the longer time frame. ( )( )

4. Economic policy is released by government agencies and central banks4. Economic policy is released by government agencies and central banks .( ).( )

5. Expectations of war can positively influence the value of currencies of two nat5. Expectations of war can positively influence the value of currencies of two nat

ions. ions. ( ) ( )



1. Balande of payment model lays great importance on the role of global capital 1. Balande of payment model lays great importance on the role of global capital

flows. flows. ( F )( F )

2. PPP provides logical explaniation for the fluctuations in exchange rate and re2. PPP provides logical explaniation for the fluctuations in exchange rate and re

mained fixed. mained fixed. ( F )( F )

3. The models mentioned in the text cannot succeed to explain FX rates levels an3. The models mentioned in the text cannot succeed to explain FX rates levels an

d volatility in the longer time frame. d volatility in the longer time frame. ( T )( T )

4. Economic policy is released by government agencies and central banks4. Economic policy is released by government agencies and central banks .( T ).( T )

5. Expectations of war can positively influence the value of currencies of two nat5. Expectations of war can positively influence the value of currencies of two nat

ions. ions. ( F ) ( F )


III. Translate the following special terms:III. Translate the following special terms:

1. International Parity Conditions1. International Parity Conditions ：：

2. Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) 2. Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) ：：

3.Interest Rate Parity(IRP) 3.Interest Rate Parity(IRP) ：：

4. Fisher Effect4. Fisher Effect ：：

5. Balance of payment model5. Balance of payment model ：：

6. Asset market model6. Asset market model ：：

7. economic indicator7. economic indicator ：：

8. fiscal policy8. fiscal policy ：：

Text : Special termsText : Special terms

Check-upCheck-up

1. International Parity Conditions1. International Parity Conditions ：：国际平价条件国际平价条件

2. Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) 2. Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) ：：购买力平价购买力平价

3.Interest Rate Parity(IRP) 3.Interest Rate Parity(IRP) ：：利率平价利率平价

4. Fisher Effect4. Fisher Effect ：：费雪效应费雪效应

5. Balance of payment model5. Balance of payment model ：：国际收支模式国际收支模式

6. Asset market model6. Asset market model ：：资产市场模式资产市场模式

7. economic indicatior7. economic indicatior ：：经济指标经济指标

8. fiscal policy8. fiscal policy ：：财政政策财政政策


9. monetary policy9. monetary policy ：：

10. budget deficit10. budget deficit ：：

11.budget surplus11.budget surplus ：：

12.retail sales12.retail sales ：：

13. flght to quality13. flght to quality ：：

14. long-term trend14. long-term trend ：：

15. safe haven15. safe haven ：：

16. business cycles16. business cycles ：：

17. algorithmic trading17. algorithmic trading ：：



9. monetary policy9. monetary policy ：：货币政策货币政策

10. budget deficit10. budget deficit ：：预算赤字预算赤字

11.budget surplus11.budget surplus ：：预算盈余预算盈余

12.retail sales12.retail sales ：：零售销售额零售销售额

13. flght to quality13. flght to quality ：：资产转移资产转移

14. long-term trend14. long-term trend ：：长期趋势长期趋势

15. safe haven15. safe haven ：：位于无金融、财务危机之地点或投资位于无金融、财务危机之地点或投资

16. business cycles16. business cycles ：：商业周期商业周期

17. algorithmic trading17. algorithmic trading ：：程序化交易程序化交易


Listening PracticeListening Practice

Short PassageShort Passage

Listen and LearnListen and LearnListen and LearnListen and Learn

You will hear You will hear VOA Special English Economics Report. . After the report you will be asked 3 questions. Listen After the report you will be asked 3 questions. Listen carefully and try to understand the main points in the carefully and try to understand the main points in the report. report.


Listening Practice: news reportListening Practice: news report

The economic crisis is claiming another victim: world trade. Last month the World

Bank predicted a two percent decrease this year -- the largest drop since the nineteen fortie

s.

Economies that depend on exports for growth have been hit hard. Japanese exports

decreased almost twenty-seven percent in November from a year earlier. Japan has the wor

ld's second largest economy.

A new report this week from China showed that its economy became the world's th

ird largest in two thousand seven, passing Germany. China could also pass Germany as the

world's biggest exporter. But Chinese exports fell almost three percent in December from a

year earlier -- the sharpest drop in at least ten years.

A story in the Chinese news magazine Outlook warned that factory closings could l

ead to unrest as the economy slows.


The latest reports show that German exports in November were down almost twelve perc

ent from the year before.

American exports decreased almost two percent in November from a year earlier. They

were down six percent from October -- but imports were down twelve percent. That reduced the

monthly trade deficit to the lowest level in five years.

Credit has improved in some cases since the financial crisis worsened in September. But

falling demand, including reduced demand for oil, has cut trade around the world. The Internatio

nal Monetary Fund recently called for government spending, tax cuts and international cooperati

on to support growth.

To ease credit, the Bank of England last week reduced its main interest rate to one and on

e-half percent -- its lowest ever. The bank was established in sixteen ninety-four. Britain's econo

my may have shrunk by one percent just in the final three months of last year. The first estimates

are expected at the end of January.


This week, Germany's coalition government agreed to an economic aid package wort

h about sixty-seven billion dollars. The two-year plan calls for spending on public works and

a tax cut for low-income Germans. Critics considered an earlier measure too small to fight the

recession in Europe's largest economy.

Aides to President-elect Barack Obama have been negotiating with Congress on a tw

o-year recovery plan for the world's largest economy. On Wednesday, Democratic Senator Ch

arles Schumer of New York suggested that the price could reach eight hundred fifty billion do

llars.

And that's the VOA Special English Economics Report, written by Mario Ritter. I'm

Steve Ember.

Listening Practice: News reportListening Practice: News report

1.1. What is the news about?What is the news about?

2.2. Who has the world’s second largest economy?Who has the world’s second largest economy?

3.3. What did the the Bank of England do to ease credit?What did the the Bank of England do to ease credit?

AssignmentsAssignments

1.1. Review the Text .Review the Text .

2.2. Keep in mind the special teKeep in mind the special te

rms learned in this Unit.rms learned in this Unit.

3.3. Do exercises in the book.Do exercises in the book.

Unit 9: Determinants of FX Rates

Documents

american exporter

american firm

revision of unit

chinese importer

background information

stipulated sum of money

promissory note

old form of commercial