Uninhabited Air Vehicle (UAV) Costing Considerations - … Air Vehilce... · Uninhabited Air Vehicle (UAV) Costing Considerations ... Compile equipment list with power drains ...

Uninhabited Air Vehicle (UAV)Costing Considerations

PSI Team

SCAF Workshop

22 November 2010

UAV Design Considerations

1. Role2. Design quality – military / commercial?3. Performance altitude, speed, endurance4. Propulsion5. Power source6. Power requirements for flight & payload7. Payload 8. Ground environment

UAV Role(s)• Reconnaissance

• Communications Relay

• Earth Observation, remote prospecting

• Law Enforcement (Traffic, Border control, Agricultural monitoring)

• Offensive activities against Land/ maritime targets

• Air combat, electronic warfare……….

• Any mix of the above!!

UAV Design – military / commercial• Military specifications arduous• Military materials and components costly• Design certification/ acceptance different• Historic

– schedules long– projects overtime/ cost etc

• Good commercial design reduces timescales, uses proven materials, components and may trade-off some performance for early fielding

UAV - Performance

• Performance– Endurance >48 hours

– Speed ~150Kts maximum

– Altitude 40,00ft plus

• All of the above are inter-related and some performance attributes will be role dependent and large drivers of cost.

UAV – Propulsion

• Air breathing– Reciprocating – Turbo-prop– Jet

• Chemical (rocket)• Electric

• Other propulsion nuclear or more exotic types ruled out on grounds of safety or immaturity.

• Final option likely to be a mix for resilience and performance

UAV – Power requirements

• Battery (sustain and engine electric start)

• Payload with growth capability

• Compile equipment list with power drains

• Total + safety margin + growth

UAV – Power sources

• Battery• Generator• Photo-voltaic, ~12% minimum efficiency

• Other sources nuclear, chemical etc are ruled out due to increased safety and certification issues.

• Final option likely to be a mix for resilience and performance

Photo-voltaic family

Photo-voltaic costs $/Watt

y = 0.0672x2 - 270.6x + 272432R² = 1

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Series1

Power (Series1)

Poly. (Series1)

UAV – Payload

• Mixed systems– Data link– Flight Control– Sensors (Electro-optic, SAR– etc)– Communications – Collision Avoidance– Potential capacity for Defensive Aids /Weapons

(internal bay)

• Satcom

UAV – Ground environment

• Handling & other facilities• Communications & control• Mission planning• Operator & Maintainer training• Maintenance policy• Operations & Mission Data collection &

analysisNeeded but excluded from this analysis

UAV – Costing Considerations

• Handling & other facilities• Communications & control• Mission planning• Operator & Maintainer training• Maintenance policy• Operations & Mission Data collection &

analysisNeeded but excluded from this analysis

PRICE Systems Team Option

OTS Reconnaissance UAV

UAV – Reconnaissance Option

• High altitude good commercial build• OTS Payload off the shelf avionic (10KW max)

– Communications Relay– Electro-optic (visible and dual band infra-red)– Synthetic aperture radar– Unused 250Kg capacity internal– External standard wired hard points

• OTS Propulsion small jet turbine(150Kts max)• OTS Power (15KW capability for growth)

– thin film photo voltaic– battery

Not the place for cutting edge technologies

UAV – Assumptions• Lighter Than air (LTA) technology (Helium)• Dry mass ~ 3.6 Tonnes• With LTA ~200KGs• Power requirements 15KW• Propulsion SAFRAN TR60-5 (1200lbs thrust)• Size ~ 16m diameter x 3m tall• Usable area 640 sq metres, • usable LTA volume 3290 cu metres• Composite airframe• Payload pack• Expandable airframe

PRICE What could it look like?

Picture courtesy www.freakingnews.com

Illustrative Mass DispersionUAV Illustrative Mass KGs

UAV power KGs Propulsion Airframe Payload Ballast Fuel

UAV – OTS Payload• EO/IR• Weapons/ DASS• Synthetic Aperture Radar (intermittent)• Data Link• Satellite Communications• Navigation• Communications Relay• Flight Management System• Anti-collision radar• Power supplies/ filters

RESULTS

UAV Point Estimates

Development £20M

SEPM £75M

Production £45M

Total £140M

Results – in round numbers

• 1,500,000 total hours UAV Acquisition

• Non Recurring costs £20M

• UPC (30 off) £1.47M

• 50%’ile £147M, £7.5M standard deviation

• Project cost range £138M -£157M @ 10 & 90% confidence intervals

Cost Split

Cost – Where the Activities Occur

Where the hours are spent