Unicef Training September New York September 2009

Carina Bachofen and Edward CameronSocial Development Department, The World Bank -

The Social Dimensions of Climate Change Learning ModuleYouth and Climate Change - UNICEF, 9 September 2009 -

LEARNING MODULE Introduction to the World Bank Social Development Department

The Social Development Department at the World Bank aims to empower poor and marginalized women and men through a process of transforming institutions for greater inclusion, cohesion and accountability.

๏ Social Policy Analysis๏ Local Governance and Community Driven Development๏ Conflict Crime and Violence๏ Indigenous Peoples and Involuntary Resettlement

LEARNING MODULE The Social Dimensions of Climate Change at the World Bank

๏ Social justice as over-arching theme๏ Governance and social accountability in climate action๏ Equity, rights, and livelihood security in CC mitigation & adaptation ๏ Learning module and micro-documentary contest๏ Rights, forests and climate change ๏ Local institutions, area-based development & CC๏ Emerging work on IPs, gender, conflict, and urban

Our goal: Socially inclusive, climate-resilient policies & operations in client countries

LEARNING MODULE GOALS and STRUCTURE

To LEARN:

We must change our understanding of climate change

To LEAD:

We need to shape urgent policy responses to climate change

Analysis and diagnostics - reshapes climate change as a human and social issue; helps to determine thresholds and targets; brings new disciplines into the debate

Process - key to authoritative advocacy; providing access to processes; influencing the nature of processes; vital for building constituencies and securing agreement

Social justice - addresses inequalities; reduces vulnerabilities; builds resilience

Outcomes - critical in shaping global policy architecture and responses; instruments and application at the local level

Why study the social dimensions of climate change?

the social dimensions of climate change learning moduleclimate change and youth


Our goals for today: Learn and Lead

Learn:Climate change 101

Climate change and people

Unequivocal

Accelerating

Human Induced (anthropogenic)


Climate Change 101 the IPCC conclusions

2°C is the temperature rise identified as a serious natural systems tipping point

450ppm is the CO2 equivalent in the atmosphere required

80% reductions in GHG emissions will be required by 2050


Climate Change 101 how the world warms

Orbital Variations Takes thousands of years to register

Tectonic Activity Again too slow

Volcanoes No sign of a sustained pattern of eruptions

Solar Variability Solar variations produce a small effect

Internal VariabilityDoes not produce the rapid temperature rises of the

past century

Human inducedThe Warming; the Nature of the warming; and the

Pace of the warming can only be explained by human induced factors.


Climate Change 101 human contributions

PowerTransportIndustryBuildingsLand useAgricultureWasteOther energy


Climate Change 101 responsibility

Only 17 countries account for 1% or more of global greenhouse gas emissions

Together, these 17 countries are responsible for more than 85% of global emissions

1990 2004

Sources: United Nations Statistics Division / European Environment Agency / UNFCCC

Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), thousand metric tons of CO2

Some 262 million people were affected by climate disasters annually from

2000 to 2004.

Developing WorldOECD

Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2007 / 2008

In the OECD, one person in every fifteen hundred was affected by

climate disaster (1:1500)

In the developing world the number was one in nineteen (1:19)

A risk differential of 79!% of people affected by climate disasters 2000 - 2004


Climate Change 101 climate related disasters

๏ Poverty, hunger and livelihoods

๏ Destroying settlements and infrastructure and inducing migration

๏ Impacts on human health and fatalities

๏ Exacerbating inequalities

๏ Undermining the realization of rights

๏ Conflict, crime and violence

Climate change may be the defining social justice issue of our generation.

What are the social dimensions of climate change?


IPCC projected natural impacts

complex social responses

equity

human rights and other implications

Temperature rises, extreme weather events, changes in hydrological cycles, sea level rise, threats to unique systems and biodiversity, increase in flooding and storm surges

Loss of livelihoods; health/fatalities; food/water insecurity; migration; conflict; damage to infrastructure; decline in natural systems services; distribution of impacts

Adequate standard of living; minimum means of subsistence; health; food; water; self-determination; property; culture; life; education; gender, indigenous and children

Process and substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations

Vulnerability according to the IPCC:Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation in which a system is exposed, it's sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007a, p21)


An additional stress on an already stressed system


We are taking things out 20% faster than we can put them back in.

20% of fish stocks are already depleted.

1 billion people lack access to safe water, while 430 million people suffer from water stress. This will increase by five times by 2050

We have lost 20% of our forests in the past 100 years (from 5 billion hectares to 4 billion).

Exposure - the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is subjected, such as:

๏ Risks to unique and threatened systems (coral)

๏ Extreme weather events (storm surges and sea swells)

๏ Reduced agricultural productivity

๏ Increased water insecurity

๏ Increased health risk

๏ Large-scale singularities

๏ Aggregate impacts (impacts worsen over time)


An additional sensitivity on an already sensitive system


30,000 children under the age of five die every day from hunger and easily prevented diseases.

90% of the world’s poor depend on forests for their income

30% of the population - more than 800 million people - is malnourished

An additional sensitivity on an already sensitive system


70% of the people who live in extreme poverty, are women and girls.

Two-thirds of children denied primary education are girls, and 75 per cent of the world’s 876 million illiterate adults are women.

More than 60% of the population live on less than $2 per day. 1.2 billion people live on less than $1 per day.

๏ Access to information, decision making and justice

๏ Dependence on the environment for livelihoods, food, fuel, shelter and medicine

๏ Geographical context

๏ Financial / socio-economic status

๏ Governance / political economy issues

๏ Gender, age, abilities

๏ Indigenous Peoples

๏ Cultural norms


Sensitivity - Intersecting inequalities - produce different experiences of climate change impacts, such as:

Adaptive Capacity - The resources that can be mobilized to build resilience

๏ Various types of assets (social, physical, natural, financial, human, cultural capital)

๏ Technological

๏ Knowledge

๏ Governance

Adaptation - “Refers to changes in processes, practices, or structures to moderate or offset potential damages or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in climate. It involves adjustments to reduce the vulnerability of communities, regions, or activities to climatic change and variability” (IPCC 2001).


ResilienceResilience occurs where adaptive capacity is strong, inequalities are addressed, and exposure minimized. It reflects the ability to deal with change and continue to develop.


Just as vulnerable communities are threatened with collapse from climate impacts, a resilient community can anticipate and plan for a sustainable future.

Equity


Vulnerable and marginalized communities are typically least responsible for the cause and least able to deal with the consequences of climate change.

“These groups, by lacking a voice and influence in climate change policy making, are unlikely to account for their particular experience. This is likely to exacerbate their position of marginalization or vulnerability further” (Pollack, 2008, p17).

Improved outcomes, adaptive capacity and resilience

Enhanced capital and resources

Improved governance

Change analysis and diagnosis

Critical in shaping global policy architecture and responses; instruments and application at the local level; addresses inequalities; reduces vulnerabilities; builds resilience

Technological; knowledge; political; various types of assets (social, physical, natural, financial, human, cultural capital)

Key to authoritative advocacy for vulnerable populations; providing access to processes; influencing the nature of processes; vital for building constituencies and securing agreement

Implementation of governance principles across governance scales leads to enhanced capital and resources

Case Study 1: The Maldives


Case Study 2: Bolivia



Question 1:Case study analysisEach student in the group takes five minutes to read one case study from The Maldives and Bolivia.

When you have finished reading the case studies, present the case to your colleagues, explaining why your chosen country is vulnerable.


Question 2:Are you vulnerable too?Think about your own vulnerability to climate change. How vulnerable is your home country? What vulnerabilities are present here in the United States and in New York City?


Where are we now?

Lead (1) - Shaping policy responses:

From Kyoto to Copenhagen

Climate building blocks


Kyoto

Missed opportunities and failed promises

A new beginning in Bali

Changing our perspective

All roads lead to Copenhagen

Beyond Copenhagen

Climate policy building blocks

๏ Mitigation

๏ Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)

๏ Adaptation

๏ Technology

๏ Finance


Mitigation

๏Sources

๏Sinks / Reservoirs

๏Sequestration

๏Substitutes


Renewable Energy: Co-benefits

๏GHG Reductions

๏Economic returns for those who innovate

๏Employment and local development

๏ Increased security of supply

๏Reduced emissions of other pollutants and health benefits


Biofuels: Negative Social Impacts

๏Questionable GHG reductions potential

๏Deforestation

๏Land acquisition and displacement

๏ Impact on food (production, access, prices)

๏Political instability, corruption and violence


ISSUES / ETHICSReducing Emissions from Degradation and Deforestation

REDD Agenda

๏ Deforestation is responsible for at least 25%-30% of anthropogenic climate change each year

๏ Forests help to slow climate change by acting as a sink / reservoir for GHG emissions

๏ Assign a price for carbon to cover environmental services and create incentives for forest conservation and management

๏ Effective forest governance is key to success but remains elusive


Adaptation

๏Planned versus autonomous adaptation

๏First Generation

๏Second Generation

๏Third Generation (?)


What Adaptation Strategy?Case 1: Engineering - protecting the land or the person?

๏ Protects vital infrastructure

๏ Protects vital utilities

๏ Coastal zone management

๏ Seawalls, flood defences, etc..

๏ Deals with exposure but what about sensitivity?

๏ May not target the most vulnerable

๏ May not address key system impacts (ecological and social)


What Adaptation Strategy?Case 2: Health policy - hard or soft adaptation?

๏ Health impacts critical to understanding social dimensions of climate change

๏ Health policy directly addresses a variety of climate impacts

๏ Contributes to MDGs and spurs economic development

๏ Draws upon existing financial resources

๏ Costly (capital and operational)

๏ Serious resource constraints

๏ Requires long-term vision


Technology

๏Research and innovation

๏ Investment and political will

๏Development and deployment

๏Access and supporting structures


Finance

๏How much is required?

๏New and additional?

๏How to generate funding?

๏How to disburse / target funding?


Equitable, efficient and effective?

Baseline ODA (up to 0.7% of GNP)GDP Contribution (0.5% - 1% by developed countries)Carbon TaxesGeneral taxes and specific fundsAviation / Shipping taxGHG LevyTax on Financial Transactions (Tobin Tax)Emissions Cap and TradeAuctioning of Emissions RightsCDM and Carbon Offset Markets

Potential Sources of Climate Finance:

Current estimates put the cost of dealing with climate change at between $4bn and $109bn per year(low end from Stern 2006 / high end from UNDP 2007)

Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the Bali Brunch, April 2009


Global: UNFCC, Kyoto, Bali Roadmap

Regional: EU and other initiatives

Local / Sub-national:Initiatives at provincial, community and household level

National:Policies at the state level



What can you do?

Lead (2) - The Four Cs:Citizen

Consumer

Communicator

Change Agent


Question 3: What can you do?What practical steps can you take a s a Citizen, Consumer, Communicator and Change Agent to address climate change?


Climate change - what path shall we take?

Possible Effects of Climate Change Policy:

EQUITY

RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY

CO-BENEFITS NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS

INEQUITY


Governanceimproved policies, processes and outcomes

“The great tragedy of sustainable development is that we have not invented a politics to go with the concept”.

James MacNeill, former Secretary General of the Brundtland Commission



www.worldbank.org/sdcc

http://www.worldbank.org

http://www.worldbank.org


www.1010uk.org

http://www.1010uk.org

http://www.1010uk.org


Its your world

Its your responsibility

Its your time to LEAD!


Thank you for your attention

Carina Bachofen - [email protected] Cameron - [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




Unicef Training September New York September 2009

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