UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Trends in International Migration George Groenewold, NiDi 1. Concepts and Definitions 2. Data sources and their shortcomings 3. Measurement of migration: Stocks and Flows 4. Trends in International Migration in the World and Europe
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UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Trends in International Migration George Groenewold, NiDi 1. Concepts.
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UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005
Trends in International Migration George Groenewold, NiDi
1. Concepts and Definitions
2. Data sources and their shortcomings
3. Measurement of migration: Stocks and Flows
4. Trends in International Migration in the World and Europe
Immigrant: someone living in a country other than where he/she was bornEmigrant: someone leaving his/her country of birth to go and live in another country
In-migrant: someone living in another place than where he/she was born (but within the same country)Out-migrant: someone leaving his/her place of birth to go and live in another place (but within the same country)
Internal migration
International migration
Net migration
Difference between the number of immigrants (or in-migrants) and the number of emigrants (or out-migrants)
• If net migration is positive, there are more immigrants than emigrants
• A negative net migration implies that more people are leaving than arriving
Migration rates and ratios• Out-migration (emigration) rate: percentage of population from place x
that now lives elsewhere
• In-migration (immigration) ratio: population living in place x, but born elsewhere, as a percentage of the total population living in place x
• Depending on research question, denominator may differ so that indicator may be either a rate or ratio
Recent migrant: someone whose place of residence at the time of the census differs from that 1, 5 years ago
Lifetime migrant: someone who at the time of the census lives away from his/her place of birth
Multiple migrant: someone whose place of residence is different at all three times: at birth, X-years ago, and at the census
Return migrant: someone who, at the time of the census, was living in the same place as at birth, but who was living in another place X-years ago
Refugee: A refugee is a person who ‘owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country…’
(The 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees)
But….also persons granted refugee status by UNHCR, UN Relief and Welfare Agency (UNRWA), 1969 OAU Convention on African Refugees
Internally displaced person (IDP): Internally displaced persons are persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-inflicted disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized state border
2. Data sources and their shortcomings
Potential data sources for migration statistics:• Population censuses and population registers • Border statistics• Admission and stay registers for foreigners, including
refugees and asylum-seekers• Work permit statistics• General purpose surveys (GPS) • Specialised migration surveys
Typical shortcomings:• Completeness, definitions (comparability), quality • Limited depth and breadth of data • Data on situation of migrants prior to migration lacking • Data of relevant comparison groups lacking
Table 1: Number and distribution over time of using the census to determine the international migrant stock
3. Measurement of Migraton: Stocks, Flows, Trends
Stocks: who is a migrant?
• According to Place of Birth (POB)?
- life time migrants (legal+illegal residence status)
- no time reference, no policy handle
• According to Citizenship criterion?
- legal residence status
- indicator with policy handle
- multiple citizenship
• Number of migrants according to citizenship usually differs considerably from migrants according to POB
• Size and composition characteristics for monitoring social and economic integration
Table 2. Distribution of countries and areas according to the type of data used to identify stocks of international migrants
Africa Asia Europe L.Am. N.Am Oceania
Figure 1. Type of data used to estimate migration by region
Imputed
Citizensh.
Birthpl.
Flows (cross-tabulations)
- POR by POB
-life time migration moves only
-underestimation of total migration moves (intermediate destinations not recorded)
-not time-specific
- POR by POB by Duration of Residence
-migration cohorts: life time in-migrants by time of last arrival
- migration and development analysis
- POR by POR 1 or 5 years ago
-focus on recent arrivals
-UN recommends 5 years ago
-recall problem with fixed reference date
4. Trends in International Migration in the World and Europe
Suggested reference:International Organization for Migration (IOM) and UN. 2003. World Migration Report 2003. Geneva.
Figure 2. Growth of migrant stocks in less developed and more developed countries
Table 3. Estimates of (A) numbers of migrants (B)proportional distribution (C) proportion of female migrants in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000
Table 3. (continued)
Table 3. (continued)
2000 2000(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
World 6,056,715 174,781 2.9 15,868 0 0.0 62,239 0.2 More developed regions 1,191,429 104,119 8.7 3,012 2,321 2.0 12,535 0.1 Less developed regions 4,865,286 70,662 1.5 12,857 -2,321 -0.5 49,704 0.7 Least developed countries 667,613 10,458 1.6 3,066 -306 -0.5 .. ..
Source: Eurostat Statistics in Focus, Population and social conditions, Theme 3 - 7/2002
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Common Wealth of Independent States (CIS)
• 1989, 9 independent countries1997, 27 independent countries (over 550 million people)
Between 1989-1997:• Fewer than expected moved out of region (2.5 million) • Over 9 million moved within or between new States• Voluntary (repatriants) and forced movements (refugees
and internally displaced persons (IDP)
• By 1997, 4.7 million repatriants in CIS• CEE/CIS increasingly transit-zones of international
migrants and refugees from Asia and Africa
• Problem: collection, compilation and dissemination of good quality migration data and statistics
Total world population: 6 billion
International migrants1: 175 million (2.9% of worldpopulation)