UNESCAP

Challenges of climate change and responses in Asia and the Pacific:

implications for civil society

UNESCAP

Sangmin Nam, PhDEnvironmental Affairs Officer

Environment and Development Division

World Civic Forum5-8 May 2009, Seoul

GHG Emissions and Rising Temperature

Source: IPCC

450ppm CO2 eq

550ppm CO2 eq

Trends of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific

Temperature increase (A-P above the trend)• Shrinking glaciers (e.g. Himalayan glacier)• Sea level rise (many small islands in A-P)

Changes in rainfall patterns

change in river flow pattern more frequent and severe floods, droughts changes in coastal circulation patters

Increase in extreme weather (A-P more vulnerable)

Climate change in Asia-Pacific context

Geographic factors• Many countries in lower latitudes• Large coastal areas of low elevation• Many small islands states

Socio-economic factors• Dependence on climate sensitive activities (agriculture,

fishery, etc)• Many poor Lack of resources for prevention, adaptation

and mitigation measures• Population growth more people living in higher risk

areas such as coastal areas

Global Environmental Governance: Actors and Factors

Factors

Interplay of interests

Influence of Knowledge

Actors

State ActorsNon-state Actors International

organizations Civil Society Epistemic

Communities

Factor 1: Influence of Knowledge Knowledge in Multilateral Environmental Governance

Asymmetrical information acts as an obstacle to building and implementing governance

Thus, mutually or widely shared understanding of a problem is the first requirement of environmental governance.

Required knowledge for multilateral governance: causality of the problem as well as the consequences of policies

The specific roles of knowledge include identifying the nature of a problem; shaping states’ perception on an environmental problem; and creating bases for the choice of substantive approaches and rules of governance

Factor 2: Interplay of Interests

National interests in multilateral environmental governance

National interests: the outcome of calculations of expected environmental vulnerability and abatement costs

A reflection of interactions among various domestic factors

National interests are always heterogeneous. Thus, the important fact is the intensity of heterogeneity and the potential of a governance mechanism to alter or create incentives for cooperation

State Actors: the agent of national interests

State actors cannot be defined as an entity of a monolithic interest, but an entity with diverse interests.

Actor: Civil Society

Two existential bases of CSO

• As external advocates for encouraging state actors to effectively respond to environmental challenges by creating required governance mechanisms

• As executors for CSO-initiated governance mechanisms or activities of formal governance mechanisms

Roles of CSO

Diffuse new information and knowledge; create new agendas of governance; form an encouraging political atmosphere towards new governance; and execute their own governance sphere.

Progress in GEG on Climate Change

Shared Vision for Long-term Global Goal

• Ambitious (meeting ultimate objective of the UNFCCC)

• Based on science

• Achievable and realistic

• Economic development

• Comprehensive

(5th Session of the AWG-LCA)

Bali Action Plan: Key Directions

• Achieving the ultimate objective of the Convention

• Deep cut

• NAMA

• MRV

• Technology and Financing

• Markets and cost-effectiveness

• Adaptation

Goals of Post-2012 Action

Developed Countries: Reducing 20-40% of 1990 level by 2020

Developing Countries: NAMA/ Substantial Deviation from Baseline

At least 50% below 1990 level by 2050

Stabilizing GHG at the level of 450 ppm CO2 eq. in 2050

Limiting global warming to 2ºC increase

The Approach of the Kyoto Target

GHG concentration in 2050: ?

Global emissions by 2050: ?

Targets for Annex I: 5% Reduction by 2012

No quantified target for Non-Annex I

Global temperature: ?

Implication for Developing Countries: NAMA

Developed Countries: NAMC + Deep Cut Developing Countries: (1) NAMA (2) in the context of SD (3) in

a MRV manner

Encouraging Mitigation Action of Developing Countries

Technology, Financing and Capacity Building for Developing Countries

Formal TT and Financing Mechanism under UNFCCC

Market-based Mechanism

Globally required additional investment and financial flows in 2030: 0.3 to 0.5% of GDP and 1.1 - 1.7% of global investment (UNFCCC).

Approaches to NAMA

Sustainable Development Policies and Measures Low-carbon development plans and strategies Sector-based mitigation actions and standards Technology deployment Programme Cap-and-trade schemes

Registry of NAMAs MRV Link NAMAs with pledges or sources of support

Moving towards Committed Actions

Key Approaches to Implementing Mitigation Actions

Co-benefits approach to attain multiple outcomes

Holistic approach to designing socioeconomic policies

Cooperative approach to developing and implementing policies

Inclusive development approach to simultaneously achieving key social development goals including MDGs

Enabling Climate Action in Developing Countries

TT, Financing and CB under formal mechanism

Cooperative sectoral approaches and sector-specific actions

Create crediting mechanisms for NAMA through a

registry of NAMAs so as to improve commercial viability of investments in mitigation actions in developing countries.

Enabling Sector-specific Actions

Options(1) Sector-wide transnational approaches, e.g.

transnational industry-led approaches(2) Country-specific quantitative sectoral approaches,

possibly combined with no-lose targets(3) Top-down sectoral crediting as an incentive mechanism,

e.g. a sectoral Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)(4) Policy or technology-oriented sectoral approaches

Target sectors (1) Domestically-oriented sectors: power generation,

transport, residential building, etc(2) Internationally-oriented/ operating sectors:

manufacturing industry

Energy

Transportation 13.5%

Electricity & Heat 24.6%

Other fuel Combustion 9.0%

Industry 10.4%

Fugitive Emissions 3.9%

Road 9.9%

Air and Transport 3.9%

Residential & Commercial Buildings 9.9%

Unallocated fuel Combustion 3.5%

Iron & Steel 3.2%

Other metals 4.4%

Chemicals 4.8%

Cement 3.8%

Other Industry 8.3%

Oil/Gas Extraction, Refining & Processing 6.3%

Forest Change 18.2%

Agricultural Use 13.4%

Livestock & Manure 5.1%

Carbon Dioxide(CO2) 77%

Methane (CH4) 14%

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 8%

HFCs, PFCs SFs 1%

Industrial Processes 3.4%

Land Use Change 18.2%

Agriculture 13.55%

Waste 3.6%

Sector End Use/ Activity GHG

Source: WRI

Key Sectors and Actors

Number of participating countries covering 80-90% of non-Annex I GHG emissions in particular sectors

(Source: Center for Clean Air Policy)

Asian Countries on the Top Ten

For All Sectors: China, India, and South Korea

For Selected Sectors: Electricity - Indonesia, Thailand; Chemical and Petrochemical - Indonesia; Cement - the two countries and Pakistan

Enabling Sector-specific Actions -Sectoral Crediting Mechanism (SCM)

Policy-based crediting, where credits would be generated by adopting and implementing GHG friendly policies in particular sectors;

Rate-based (indexed) crediting, where GHG emissions below a certain intensity level (e.g. per product output or per value of output) would generate emission credits; and

Fixed sectoral emission limits, where emissions “credits” could be generated if a sector or company emits at a lower level than an agreed, fixed, limit.

Source: OECD/IEA

Financing Climate Action

New Crediting Mechanism?

New Funding Mechanism?

Enhancing the roles: a fundamental requirement for financing

Financing Mitigation Actions: proposals

Contributions based on national capacity and responsibility

An assessed contribution from developed country based on GDP An assessed contributions from all Parties based on GHG emissions and

respective capacities.

Levies on commercial and individual activities

A uniform Global levy on CO2 emissions International aviation and maritime transport Air travel International monetary transactions

Engaging market

Auctioning of assigned amounts or emission allowances A share of proceeds from CDM, JI and ET

Continuing Roles of Civil Society in Climate Actions

Framing climate change into political agenda Facilitating actions of sub-state actors and the private

sectors Interpreting scientific information into common knowledge

and practical action Building hubs of vertical and horizontal interactions Acting as an agent for citizens’ voluntary action such as

carbon offsetting Linking climate agenda into broader sustainable

development/ green growth agenda

Attaining the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC and sustainability of “humanitarian planet”

Thank you very much for your attention

Sangmin Nam ([email protected])