This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Slide 1
UNECE Conference on poverty measurement December 2-4, 2013
Poverty and Equity Measurement at the World Bank and the ECA
context
Slide 2
Content Poverty measurement: conceptual issues Poverty
measurement at the World Bank Global monitoring Corporate
objectives Country dialogue Types of measures used Shared
prosperity Non-monetary measures Access to opportunities
Complementarities across measures Looking ahead
Slide 3
Poverty measures: Theoretical and practical considerations
Desirable characteristicsIntended use understandable and easy to
describe conforms to a common sense notion of poverty fits the
purpose for which it is being developed technically solid
operationally viable easily replicable compare the poverty of
different households and regions in the country compare poverty
over time compare poverty between countries define a poverty
reduction strategy evaluate the impact of a poverty reduction
strategy
Poverty measurement within the World Bank Global poverty
monitoring Corporate goals End extreme poverty (Percentage of
people living with less than US$ 1.25 a day to fall to 9 percent in
2020 and 3 percent by 2030) Promote shared prosperity (Promote
income/consumption growth of the bottom 40 percent of the
population in every country) Country dialogue Main dimension of
dialogue with stats institutes Policy linkages Feedback to
corporate and global monitoring tasks
Slide 6
Global monitoring and corporate goals US$ 1.25 / day poverty
line Global viability ensured through: Why $1.25/day -- many
desirable features Understandable Accepted standard of global
poverty Operationally viable Possible to compare poverty across
countries and over time Standardized welfare aggregate Expenditure
based Per capita terms Expressed in PPP terms conversion based on
private consumption Poverty PPPs (ICP2011) PPPs updated
periodically
Slide 7
Regional monitoring: IS US$1.25/day relevant for the ECA
region?
Slide 8
Regional (ECA) monitoring US$ 1.25/day too low for ECA Regional
ECA lines ($2.5/day; $5/day) Cold weather requires: Higher caloric
intakes Higher food expenditures Higher expenditures in clothing,
energy (and transportation) Higher non-food expenditures What is
the relevant reference line?
Slide 9
Country dialogue: national poverty lines Mostly absolute
poverty lines Variation in adult equivalent adjustments Relative
poverty lines in EU and some Western Balkans countries Key
methodological difference among ECA countries
Slide 10
Absolute vs Relative lines Absolute linesRelative lines Common
in poor countries Anchored to a fixed welfare standard Offer
comparability across space and time Can in fact account for
differences in social norms E.g. choice of food bundles But, adjust
slowly over time Common in wealthier countries EU: 60% of median
income Aim to capture differences in the cost of social inclusion
absolute in the space of appearing in public without shame Social
inclusion becomes more salient with increasing wealth Do not allow
for comparisons among countries or across time Not based on the
same level of welfare Except for anchored AROP Income losses need
not lead to higher poverty
Slide 11
BiH Spotlight: Expenditure-based profile and EU social
inclusion indicators Adoption of social inclusion indicators will
likely bring a new set of estimates / profiles / geographic
distribution of deprivation Over 2/3 rd of AROPE population is
outside of the bottom quintile However, 82% of those in 1 st
quintile are identified by the AROPE indicator
Slide 12
Corporate goals: shared prosperity Policy contextMethodological
issues Growth in real income/consumption of the less well-off
segment of the population (bottom 40%) A growing economy and a
fundamental concern for equity Direct focus on the incomes of the
poor/less well-off Growth is necessary. But not any growth
sustained growth that makes the less well-off an integral part of
that process Not about redistributing a fixed pie, but expanding
the size of the pie continuously and sharing it Goal defined only
at the country level, no global target is proposed Uses a money
metric Medium-run objective 5-year span Unbounded measure Higher
growth of bottom 40% is not inconsistent with higher inequality
Anonymous measure Composition of bottom 40% changes
Slide 13
Overall positive record on shared prosperity in late 2000s
Slide 14
Non-monetary measures: human opportunity index (HOI) Measures
availability of services necessary to progress in life, penalized
by how unfairly the services are distributed among the population.
HOI=C(1-D) Focus on children Early life equality of access to basic
opportunities Education Health care Adequate housing / amenities
Minimize effect on life chances of pre-determined circumstances
(e.g. gender, ethnicity, birthplace, or family background)
Variations: access to economic opportunities for adults (e.g.
jobs)
Slide 15
Multidimensional analysis: Opportunities (HoI)
Slide 16
Access to opportunities (sanitation)
Slide 17
Access to opportunities -- determinants
Slide 18
Access to opportunities coverage gaps
Slide 19
Complementarities across measures What do various measures
capture? $1.25/day extreme (absolute) poverty Shared prosperity
relative concept Similar to at-risk-of-poverty, only dynamic
Relevant for all countries Sharing benefits of economic growth HOI:
inequality of opportunity Together equity aspects WDR 2006: Equity
is defined in terms of two basic principles: (a) equal
opportunities and (b) avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes.
EU social inclusion similar agenda
Slide 20
Poverty measurement at the WB: looking ahead Theoretical
considerationsPractical considerations Monitoring & policy
objectives need poverty lines absolute in the space of welfare
(fixed real value over time and space) Cost of Basic Needs (CBN)
approach Consistency of comparisons Can be broadened to: capture
capabilities via the money metric of utility capture relative
concerns Equity agenda focus on shared prosperity (SP) IO /
mobility meant to complement and unpack SP Monetary measures Better
data; higher frequency data Issues of updating poverty baskets
Non-monetary measures Better understanding of multiple dimensions
of poverty and exclusion Dashboards vs composite indices; weights
Inequality of opportunity Capabilities (in Sens sense) remain
difficult to measure in practice