Understanding the “Arab Spring”: Public Opinion in the Arab World Craig Charney Presentation to Center for Strategic and International Studies Washington, DC January 26, 2012
Understanding the “Arab Spring”:
Public Opinion in the Arab World
Craig Charney
Presentation to
Center for Strategic and
International Studies
Washington, DC
January 26, 2012
2
Sources National Opinion Polls
This presentation is based on scientific, national, randomly-sampled opinion surveys taken in Arabic by trained
local interviewers and polling groups.
Charney Research Polls:
• March 2011 – Egypt (615 respondents)
• August 2010 – Lebanon (1000 respondents),
Palestine (1019 respondents)
• July 2009 – Palestine (2402 respondents)
• July 2008 – Lebanon (1800 respondents)
• Oct 2008 – Yemen (1304 respondents), Saudi
Arabia (1199 respondents), Algeria (1199
respondents), Egypt (1205 respondents)
Other Polls:
• Spring 2011 – Gallup World Poll: Syria, Egypt,
Yemen, Palestine, Tunisia, Algeria, Lebanon,
Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE
(1000 respondents each)
• April 2011 – Pew Research Center: Egypt, Jordan,
Lebanon (1000 respondents each)
• October 2010 – Gallup World Poll: Qatar
(1000 respondents), UAE (1000 respondents), Kuwait
(1000 respondents), Lebanon (1000 respondents)
• April 2010 – Gallup World Poll: Bahrain (1000
respondents), Jordan (1000 respondents), Syria
(1000 respondents), Tunisia (2000 respondents)
• March 2010 – Gallup World Poll: Algeria (1000
respondents), Egypt (2000 respondents), Saudi
Arabia (1000 respondents), Libya (1000
respondents), Morocco (1000 respondents)
• Feb 2010 – Gallup World Poll: Palestine (1000
respondents), Yemen (1000 respondents)
• Feb 2010 – Gallup World Poll: Palestine (1000
respondents), Yemen (1000 respondents)
• July 2010 – Shibley Telhami, University of Maryland:
Egypt (818 respondents), Saudi Arabia (812
respondents), UAE (512 respondents), Morocco
(816 respondents), Lebanon (509 respondents),
Jordan (509 respondents)
• 2010 – Pew Global Attitudes Survey: Palestine
(1100 respondents), Jordan (1000 respondents),
Egypt (1000 respondents), Lebanon (1000
respondents)
• 2009 – Pew Global Attitudes Survey: Palestine (1100
respondents), Egypt (1000 respondents)
• August 2009 – IRI Poll: Jordan (1000
respondents)
• August 2009 – Greenberg Poll: Egypt (800
respondents)
• Jordan (1000 respondents )
• Fall 2006 – Arab Barometer Survey: Morocco
(1277 respondents), Kuwait (750 respondents)
• Spring 2006 – Arab Barometer Survey:
Palestine (1270 respondents), Jordan (1142
respondents)
• 2000: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators
Database
Today’s Presentation
• Distinguishing Factors: Economic and Political
• Common Elements: Political and Economic
• New Media
• Post-Revolutionary Conditions
• Post-Revolutionary Elections
• Religious Institutions and Identity
• International Issues
3
4
Upheavals occurred where the fewest were thriving;
stability prevailed where the most were.
Gallup World Poll 2010, 2011
Distinguishing Factors
Percent “thriving”
Group 1:
Major Upheaval
Group 2:
Spring 2011 Instability
Group 3:
Stable
Country Thriving
%
Country Thriving
%
Country Thriving
%
Syria 3% Morocco 9% Kuwait 45%
Egypt 6% Algeria 18% Qatar 48%
Bahrain 7% Lebanon 18% Saudi Arabia 50%
Yemen 11% Jordan 28% UAE 58%
Libya 14%
Tunisia 16%
Group 1
Average 10%
Group 2
Average 18%
Group 3
Average 50%
5
The countries in upheaval saw significant drops in the proportions
of citizens thriving in the past three years, unlike the rest.
Gallup World Poll 2007-2011
Distinguishing Factors
Group 1 Countries
Country
%
Thriving
(2009)
%
Thriving
(2010)
%
Thriving
(2011)
Syria 21% 10% 3%
Egypt 25%* 11% 6%
Yemen 17% 12% 11%
Libya 24% 14% N/A
Tunisia 25%* 14% 16%
Bahrain 40% 27% 7%
*Egypt and Tunisia from 2007-2008 – more tracking data available
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Group 1 Average
Group 2 Average
Group 3 Average
25%
20%
50%
15% 20%
50%
8%
18%
50%
2009 2010 2011
Average thriving: 2009*-2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
34% 35%
66%
The countries most dissatisfied with job creation tended
to be the least stable (Groups 1 and 2).
Distinguishing Factors: Economic
In your country, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the efforts to increase the number of quality jobs?
(Satisfied only)
6 Gallup World Poll 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
29%
18%
12%
Countries with more poverty had more unrest.
7
Have there been times in the last 12 months when you did not have enough money to buy the food that you
or your family needed?
(Yes only)
Gallup World Poll 2010-2011
Distinguishing Factors: Economic
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
25%
43%
75%
Dissatisfaction with the local economy was also
closely linked to instability. Right now, do you think the economic conditions in the city or area in which you live, as a whole, are
getting better or worse?
(Better only)
8 Gallup World Poll 2010-2011
Distinguishing Factors: Economic
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
13%
20% 21%
Regimes fell in countries where people felt the
most voiceless. Have you voiced your opinion to a public official (in the last month)?
(Yes only)
9 Gallup World Poll 2010
Distinguishing Factors: Political
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Group 1 Average
Group 2 Average
Group 3 Average
61% 61%
21%
Perceptions of widespread corruption and reported problems
were more common in Groups 1 and 2 – the less stable countries. Is corruption widespread throughout the
government in your country?
(Yes only)
10 Gallup World Poll 2010-2011
Distinguishing Factors: Political
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Group 1 Average
Group 2 Average
Group 3 Average
44% 48%
21%
Paid bribe to official for service in past year
(Yes only)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
55% 50%
80%
Lack of confidence in the rule of law was
linked to instability. In your country do you have confidence in the judicial system and the courts?
(Yes only)
11 Gallup World Poll 2010
Distinguishing Factors: Political
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
48%
34%
58%
Countries where elections were seen as rigged
also were less stable. In your country do you have confidence in the honesty of elections?
(Yes only)
12 Gallup World Poll 2010
Distinguishing Factors: Political
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
47%
36%
67%
Countries where mistrust of domestic media was
higher (Groups 1 and 2) were more unstable. In your country do you have confidence in the quality and integrity of the media?
(Yes only)
13 Gallup World Poll 2010
Distinguishing Factors: Political
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
83% 79% 77%
14
There is a strong desire for democracy
across the region.
CR 2008, Arab Barometer 2006
Percent preferring a democratic system of government
Common Elements: Political
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
79%
65% 73%
15
Majorities throughout the Arab world believe today
that democracy is compatible with Islam. Democracy compatible with Islam
(Yes only)
Common Elements: Political
Pew 2007, 2009, 2010; CR 2008,
Arab Barometer 2006
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Group 1 Average* Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
55% 60%
54%
The majority of citizens said political change should
be peaceful in Arab countries (except Libya).
Common Elements: Political
Some people believe that groups that are oppressed and are suffering from injustice can improve their situation by
peaceful means ALONE. Others do not believe that peaceful means ALONE will work to improve the situation for
such oppressed groups. What do you believe?
(Believe peaceful means ALONE only)
16 Gallup World Poll 2010 *Libya: 34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
68%
85%
76%
17
A consensus across the region favors foreign trade
and globalization.
Pew 2010, 2009; CR 2008
Common Elements: Economic
Percent saying greater foreign trade is good
18
Internet access is lower in the less stable countries – while it is
nearly universal in the most stable (and developed).
Gallup World Poll 2010
New Media
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
28% 34%
81%
Does your home have internet access?
(Yes only)
19
Mobile phones have become almost ubiquitous in the Arab
world, where very few had them a decade ago.
Gallup World Poll 2010, ICT 2000
New Media
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
7% 13% 23%
2000 2011
Does your home have a cellular phone?
(Yes only)
86% 89%
99%
20
The key news medium in the region is television, though
internet and print matter in some countries.
Telhami 2010
New Media
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Egypt Morocco Jordan Lebanon UAE Saudi Arabia
86% 95%
64% 57%
50%
88%
9% 1%
9% 15%
20%
9% 5% 1%
12% 15% 19%
3% 3%
14% 12% 12%
Television Internet Newspapers/magazines Radio
What is your primary source for international news?
21
Al Jazeera leads as an international news source, but MBC, Al
Arabiya, and Egyptian TV also have large audiences.
New Media
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Egypt Morocco Jordan Lebanon UAE Saudi Arabia
31%
65%
24% 20% 15%
41%
54%
14%
1% 9%
5%
9%
21%
14% 16%
12%
4%
1%
6%
3%
10%
30%
Al Jazeera Egyptian network MBC Al Arabiya
When you watch international news, which of the following networks do you watch most often?
Telhami 2010
22
There was enormous hope and optimism in Egypt and
Tunisia following the revolutions in those countries.
CR 2011, 2008; Pew 2011,
EMRHOD 2011
Post-Revolutionary Conditions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Egypt 2008
Egypt March 2011
Tunisia April 2011
27%
82% 79%
61%
10% 14%
Right direction Wrong direction
Generally speaking, do you think things in
[Egypt/Tunisia] are going in the right direction or
wrong direction?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
57%
79%
16% 15%
27%
6%
Optimistic Pessimistic Neither/Don't know
How do you feel about
the future?
(Tunisia)
Are you optimistic or pessimistic
about the future of the country?
(Egypt)
Egypt
March 2011
Tunisia
April 2011
23
Egyptians and Tunisians saw their countries’ biggest problems as the
economy and security; corruption and democracy ranked lower.
CR 2011, IRI 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40% 35%
22%
8% 7% 5%
Biggest national problem
(mentioned by 5% or more) Egypt (Mar)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40% 39% 37%
7% 8%
Tunisia (Apr)
Post-Revolutionary Conditions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2005 2011
21%
62%
24
Voter turnout soared as Egyptians could vote freely, but
dropped as Tunisians were no longer coerced to vote.
Official turnout
Egypt Turnout Tunisia Turnout
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2009 2011
89%
52%
Post-Revolutionary Elections
25
After the revolutions, political parties were unknown to
large proportions of Egyptians and Tunisians.
CR 2011, EMRHOD 2011
0% 50% 100%
58%
63%
59%
41%
39% Freedom and
Justice Party
Wafd Party
Al Ghad Party
Tagammu Party
Al Nour Party
Egypt – June 2011
Party familiarity – top 5 parties
(Don’t know only)
0% 50% 100%
Don't know any
Ettajdid
PDP
Ennahda
61%
92%
88%
71%
Tunisia – April 2011
Party familiarity – top 3 parties
(Don’t know only)
Post-Revolutionary Elections
26
Moderate Islamists took two-fifths of the vote in Egypt
and Tunisia, Salafis one-fifth more in Egypt.
Post-Revolutionary Elections
Ennahada (Islamist)
37%
Secular Parties
25%
Minor Parties and
Lists 32%
Blank ballots
6%
Freedom and
Justice (Islamist)
37%
Al Nour (Salafis)
27% Other
Islamists 4%
Ex-NDP 5%
Secular Parties
27%
Parliamentary Election Results
(votes)
Official results
Tunisia
Oct 2011
Egypt*
Nov-Dec 2011
*1st + 2nd Rounds
27
In Egypt, undecideds broke decisively for the Islamists
as the election approached.
Post-Revolutionary Elections
15% 16%
50% 56% 54%
42%
29%
31%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
June 2011 Sept 2011 Dec 2011
Gallup 2011
Freedom and Justice Party
(Muslim Brotherhood)
5%
7%
31%
60% 57%
58%
35% 36%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
June 2011 Sept 2011 Dec 2011
Al Nour Party
(Salafis)
Oppose
Don’t know
Support
Oppose
Don’t know
Support
28
Turkey’s political system is the most popular political
model among Egyptians, followed by Europe.
Telhami 2011
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Iran
Morocco
United States
China
Saudi Arabia
Germany, France, UK
Turkey
1%
2%
5%
8%
8%
22%
44%
If Egypt’s political system looked like that of one of the following
countries, which one would you prefer it to be?
Post-Revolutionary Elections
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
81% 79% 84%
29
Confidence in religious institutions is far higher across
the region than that in political institutions.
Gallup World Poll 2010
Religious Institutions and Identity
In your country do you have confidence in the religious organizations?
(Yes only)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Yemen Egypt Algeria Saudi Arabia
82% 80% 75%
86%
30
There is broad support for banning criticism of Islam and
harsh Sharia punishments in several Arab countries.
CR 2008, Pew 2010
Religious Institutions and Identity
Some people say the law should prohibit criticism of
Islam or other religions. Would you agree or disagree?
(Agree only)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
77%
58%
13%
84% 86%
6%
Views of Sharia punishments
(Favor only)
Egypt Jordan Lebanon Egypt Jordan Lebanon
Cut hands for theft Death for apostasy
31
Tension between Sunni and Shia, and Muslim and
Christian, is strong in a number of countries.
CR 2008
Religious Institutions and Identity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Yemen Egypt Algeria Saudi Arabia
15%
4%
25% 20%
77%
56%
75% 74%
Favorable Unfavorable
Is your opinion of Shia Muslims favorable or
unfavorable?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Yemen Egypt Algeria Saudi Arabia
4%
16% 21%
15%
87%
52%
79% 78%
Is your opinion of Christians favorable or
unfavorable?
32
Suicide bombing is generally rejected across the
region.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3
64%
55%
71%
Suicide bombing is never justified to defend Islam
(Agree)
Pew 2009, 2010, 2011; CR 2011
Religious Institutions and Identity
33
Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, Iran’s president, is not
very popular with most Arabs.
Pew 2009, 2010, 2011; CR 2008
International Issues
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
26% 30% 28%
Percent favorable to Ahmedinejad
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average
24% 24% 27%
34
Favorability to America’s leadership is low throughout
the region, despite Barack Obama as president. Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of the leadership of the USA?
(Approve only)
Gallup World Poll 2010, 2011
International Issues
35
Views of the UN are mixed, with greater popularity in
countries touched by its work for the Palestinians.
Pew 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011; CR 2008,
2009; Greenberg 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Lebanon Egypt Algeria Kuwait Saudi Arabia
Jordan Morocco Yemen
65%
54% 50%
41%
35% 35%
20% 18%
Percent favorable to UN
International Issues
36