Understanding Systems Thinking

R U S S E L L M A R T I N

A S S O C I A T E S&

Russell Martin & Associates 9084 Technology Drive, Suite 500, Fishers, IN 46038

(317) 475-9311 @[email protected]

Systems Thinking



Why Systems Thinking? An ExampleCreating a Causal Loop Diagram

“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to

ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect.”

- Chief Seattle

© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com Page 2



Systemic, complex problems are tough to fix; they keep coming back.

There is no language for discussing the interaction of multiple, complicated parts.

There is no recognition that our ‘interpretation’ of the situation drives the system.

Time delays and feedback loops are also drivers of good or bad systems.

Fixes may not be possible, but improvement is.

We’re multitasking and we can’t think well.

Page 3

I never should have sent that

email last

night!!!

© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com



As Exercise increases, Health increases (same)

As Health increases, Exercise increases (same)

As Exercise decreases, Health decreases (same)

As Health decreases, Exercise decreases (same)

Page 4

Health Exercise

S

S

Time

Growth



A S S O C I A T E S& Page 5

Amount

EatenWeight

S

O

As Amount Eaten increases, Weight increases (same)

As Weight increases, Amount Eaten decreases (opposite)

As Amount Eaten decreases, Weight decreases (same)

As Weight decreases, Amount Eaten decreases (opposite)

Time

Growth



A S S O C I A T E S& Page 6 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com



Opposite

Same Opposite

Opposite

Same

Same




Opposite

Same Opposite

Opposite

SameSame




“Successful adaptation to the environment requires that an organism be capable of learning.” - Richard Restak, M.D. “The Brain”

Page 9 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com



Pick a problem that you’ve tried to solve unsuccessfully.

Create a team of vested interest.Create a WHY question.Build a Reinforcing Loop that supports the

question aka Rock Back and Forth.Find the Balancing Loops (and other

Reinforcing Loops) Tell the stories in ‘both directions’.

Page 10 Page 10 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com



o WHY is _______happening?

o No WHAT or HOW

o Avoid: Should, blame

“Why should we sell more?”

“Why doesn’t the Help Desk help?”

o Seek: Observable fact

“Why does fund raising fluctuate?

Why can’t we steadily

increase fund raising?

Triggering QuestionTriggering Question

?? Page 11 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com



Start with the NOUN of the WHY question?

Why does PRIDE interrupt our faith and

happiness?








…may change as you learn




Create a WHY question you have a passion for solving.

Vote / Sign Up.Create the best WHY question – keep it in

plain sight.




SS

S

Portion of Revenue Spent on

Fund Raising

Fund raisers

Donations

Revenue

Links: “As Donations increase, what happens to

Revenue?

(decrease/increase = same/opposite)

S

“Why can’t we increase donations?”

Variables = measurable nouns

(not quantifiable)


Avoid sequence… don’t think

THENBad Example:

Donations happen then

buying happens



Donations

Think backwards

Close the loop

Think forward

Start Here


What happens when donations increase?

What causes donations to increase?



SS

S


Fund Raising

Fund raisers

Donations

Revenue

S


Delay = a passage of time that provokes flawed perceptions of cause and effect




Remember your best WHY question – keep it plain sight and change it if it makes sense to.

Create the NIRVANA / HELL reinforcing loop.




“Our experience is that donations are not steadily increasing or steadily decreasing. It ‘feels’ more like a roller coaster. Never gets to good or too bad. Something bounces us back up or down. There had to be more than a Nirvana/Hell reinforcing loop. Something else is going on.”

What keeps donations from steadily increasing?




Reinforcing Loop

Balancing Loop

S

Sales Loop

O

S

Market Loop

SFund Raising Productivity Perceived

Timely Follow-up

Timely Follow-Up

Attention to Donors

S

S

S S

Reinforcing loops will have an even number (or no) Opposites

Balancing loops will have an odd number of Opposites


Fund Raising

Fund Raisers

Donations

Revenue

S





Reinforcing Loop Balancing Loop Balancing Loop

Fund raising goes UP UP UP

(or DOWN DOWN DOWN)

Backlog of follow-up work influences reputation and

deadens fund raising

Additional support help arrives too little, too

late

S

SS

O

S S

OS

S

SRequest for Additional

Staff / Support

Staff / Support

S

S


Fund Raising

Fund Raiser

s

Donations

Revenue

Fund Raising Productivity Perceived

Timely Follow-up

Timely Follow-Up

Attention to Donors





Reinforcing Loop Balancing Loop Balancing Loop

Fund raising goes UP UP UP

(or DOWN DOWN DOWN)

Backlog of follow-up work influences reputation and

deadens fund raising

Additional support help arrives too little, too

late

O

SS

S

S S

Sales Loop

O

Production LoopS

Market LoopS

SRequest for Additional

Staff / Support

Staff / Support

S

S


Fund Raising

Fund Raiser

s

Donations

Revenue


Follow-upTime

Follow-upTime

Attention to Donors









Remember the WHY question – keep it plain sight.

Create the Balancing Loops and other reinforcing loops that tell your actual story.

You have 45 minutes to build your Causal Loop Diagram




Map Mental ModelsName the LoopsA “Remember” Checklist




Does it Feel Right?(“this doesn’t feel like a balancing loop to me…”)

When we have more donations we can ramp up

our fund raisers

The more fund raisers we have,

the more donations we’ll

get

Every donation creates revenue

We only invest in fund raising when

we have extra money

People will be reluctant to give again

The staff is stressed and needs help

quickly

It takes awhile to find good

people

As donors feel they are

unappreciated, it will be harder to

fund raise.

O

SS

S

S S

Sales Loop

O

Production LoopS

Market LoopS

S

S

S


Fund Raising

Fund Raisers

Donations

Revenue


Follow-upTime

Request for

Additional Staff /

Support

Staff / Support

Follow-upTime

Attention to Donors

This goes up when this goes up because…

When we get too many donations,

our staff gets overloaded

We don’t get our thank you letters out accurately or

quickly

The donors notice they never heard

from us

The workload decreases with

more help




The Rich Get

Richer

Build It And

They Will Com

e

O

SS

S

S S

Sales Loop

O

Production LoopS

Market LoopS

SRequest

for Additional

Staff / Support

Staff / Support

S

S


Fund Raising

Fund Raisers

Donations

Revenue


Follow-upTime

Follow-upTime

Attention to Donors

You Can’t Always

Get W

hat You

Want




A variable will often have more than one cause and/or more than one effect. Tell the story “As stress increases sleep decreases” [cause/effect] not “Stress happens then you

can’t sleep” [flowchart / sequential] Use nouns for variables - avoid action.

Donations not High Donations Use things that can be easily measured.

Length of Project not Time Use the positive (desired) sense.

Positive Feedback not Negative Feedback Think of unintended as well as expected outcomes.

Caffeine intake influences early morning and evening alertness Think of perceived as well as actual variables.

Perceived value is different than Actual Benefit Consider a broader scope if you can’t settle on one WHY question. Avoid Why am I stressed

AND overweight? (multiple questions). To make more understandable, combine variables to tell the simplest story. Corporate donations

+ individual donations + grant money = Donations




Where is your leverage?What can your company do, your team do,

you do?What intervention is sustainable and possible?

Page 32 Page 32 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com



“The trick to problem solving is not just ‘know-how,’ but ‘know-when’ --which lets you adapt the solution method

to the problem, and not vice versa.”- Gerald Weinberg

• Intervention can be proposed and tested

• Mental Models are revealed

• The initial concern has been explored enough to try out some action








Fund Raising: Better trained fund raising staff (more with

less)Marketing: Have a plan to

outsource follow-up temporarily when donations spike

Capacity Planning: Predict capacity needs as a

function of fund raising investment

Revisit the purpose

Create trial interventions and do mental simulations using the model

Examine delays: Can you shorten?

Acknowledge personal responsibilities: “Start Where You Are”Examine Mental Models: more

sales staff more bookings

O

SS

S

S S

The Rich Get Richer

O

Build It And They Will ComeS

You Can’t Always Get What You Want S

SRequest

for Additional

Staff / Support

Staff / Support

S

S


Fund Raising

Fund Raisers

Donations

Revenue


Follow-upTime

Follow-upTime

Attention to Donors




Revisit your Causal Loop DiagramBrainstorm answers to the following:

How could your organization improve this problem? What balanced interventions would improve and not make worse?

How could your work team improve this problem? How has your approach to this problem changed as

you’ve modeled it? What are you going to do?

You have 20 minutes to build your Intervention

Page 37



“The bottom line of systems thinking is leverage - - seeing where actions and

changes in structures can lead to significant, enduring improvements.”

- Peter Senge




At www.russellmartin.com:

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@nolecture Lou Russell



40

Trust by Leadership in Their People

Trust by People in

Their Leadership

Performance

Personal Rewards

Desire forStability

Autonomy to Make

Decisions

Appropriately Skilled

(Strategic) People

Personal Buy-In

Client Expectations

Level of Investment

Education Emphasis

Resource (HR, $, Infra) Availability

Clarity of Need

Degree of Shared Vision

& Values

Perceived Need for

Communication

Effectiveness of Communication

Agility

s

s

s

R

We Are Good

B

I Read My Press

Clippings

s

s

s

o

s

s

s

R

Go-pher It

s

s

s

ss

s

s

o

s

s

B

Fading Vision

David Aga, Tom Collins, Tom Igielske, Rachel Korstad, Merald

Nesje, Bob Roepke, Bob Stemwedel

23 Aug 96

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

s

9

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Interventions Change Reward System.

Mixed Model Aggressively and Continually Communicate Vision and Values.

Us Do Be willing to balance skills development with the need to respond to day-to-day

pressure (value thinking). Expand model and share with influencers.

Mental Models1 In times of rapid change, my performance may depend on my ‘improv’ abilities.

No two days are alike.2 Consistent satisfaction leads to trust -- not brownie points or awards, but the

intangibles -- trust, respect, confidence, good will.3 I don’t know to punch a clock mentally or physically. I set my schedule, my

priorities, my collaborations with colleagues.4 I can react quickly to changes because I ‘have my own head’, I can think for

myself.5 The better I do, the higher I raise the bar for myself for next time.6 When I deliver satisfaction, people will take the investment approach rather than

the expense approach. Solid short-term performance is just a given. 7 High-leverage resources of all varieties become more available, even with the

understanding that they take a while to come on-line.




Mental Models, continued 8 Acting with agility depends on having appropriate resources available -- that’s the third leg of the ‘agility stool’. 9 Clearly one of the high leverage resources is an ‘improved me’! My portfolio needs to grow over time

because the future will likely not be like the past.10 When I attend conferences and classes and engage in reflection, I gain two ways -- I better understand

the skills which will become more valuable in the future, and I understand that that understanding is itself valuable!

11 I need to have the right skills to be agile, but ‘right’ changes from situation to situation and over time.12 I get rewarded for my ‘actual’ performance, not my potential to perform, not for being agile, but for

performing with agility.13 When I get rewarded, I tend to repeat the things that I think led most directly to that reward.14 I invest in getting good at something, but it turns out not to have strategic value. My practices were

okay when things were stable, but now the environment is just too turbulent. I wake up and I’m obsolete!

15 I want to look like I know what I’m doing. When I sense that my performance has pleased people in the short term, I’m more likely to buy in for the long haul.

16 I trust that the leadership will not put me in a position where I will fail or embarrass myself.17 Since ‘they’ haven’t made ‘me’ fail, I come to believe that they do know where they’re going. They

and Me become We.18 If we think we agree, we probably won’t engage in further conversation to ‘prove’ it.19 And if we do, we will likely just use jargon and short-cuts -- but our interpretations of those things will

drift apart because of our different experiences.20 Clarity does not come telepathically -- and even if it did, telepathy is still a kind of communication!21 My strategy derives from the need, which is connected to the organization’s (and my own) vision.




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Understanding Systems Thinking

Education

r u s s e

r t i na s s o c

t e s systemic

t e spage

t e spick

t e swhy systems

t e ssuccessful adaptation

chief seattle russell