Understanding Pliocene Climate: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Alan Haywood, Aisling Dolan, Stephen Hunter, Daniel Hill, Ulrich Salzmann, Harry Dowsett, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Mark Chandler, Dan Lunt, David Rowley and the PlioMIP Participants
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Understanding Pliocene Climate: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Alan Haywood, Aisling Dolan, Stephen Hunter, Daniel Hill, Ulrich Salzmann, Harry.
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Understanding Pliocene Climate: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project
Alan Haywood, Aisling Dolan, Stephen Hunter, Daniel Hill, Ulrich Salzmann, Harry Dowsett, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Mark Chandler, Dan
Te r re st r ia l DM C (proxy s igna l ve rsus mode l s igna l
Proxy-based temperature anomaly
Degree of data-model discordance
(anomaly versus anomaly)
(Nature Climate Change– Salzmann et al. 2013)
Pliocene Uncertainty…
Modelling Uncertainty
Structural, Parameter
Data UncertaintyAnalytical, Spatial, Temporal
Boundary Condition U
ncerta
inty
Orbita
l forci
ng, Greenhouse
gase
s,
Topogra
phy
PlioMIP Phase 2
Pliocene ti me slices
First Pliocene Time Slice (3.205 Ma) is the centre piece of PlioMIP Phase 2 which is currently under construction.
(Haywood et al., 2013 – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A)
PlioMIP Phase 2
Conclusions 1. We said too much on the basis of too few models – now fixed
2. Global annual mean temperature increase of *********
3. Enhanced hydrological cycle with changes in monsoons
4. Little consistency in predictions for changes in AMOC
5. CO2 drives changes in the tropics, clear sky albedo dominates at the poles
6. Models struggle to warm high latitudes enough but…
7. ….the concept of the ‘stable Pliocene’ is obsolete
8. We need better time constraints on our syntheses of proxy data
Lectureship Available – Permanent(Marine Micropaleontology)
• Permanent position (Associate Professor)• Low teaching/admin• Within a big and growing palaeo group• Healthy start up funds• Ideal for an Early Career ScientistContact: Alan Haywood ([email protected])