Understanding and Predicting Interannual Climate Variability : Applications to thailand Summer Monsoon and Truckee/Carson Streamflows Balaji Rajagopalan Nkrintra Singhrattna Katrina Grantz CIVIL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ARCHITECTURAL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT BOULDER Hydrology Seminar Spring 2004
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Understanding and Predicting Interannual Climate Variability : Applications to thailand Summer Monsoon and Truckee/Carson Streamflows Balaji Rajagopalan.
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Understanding and Predicting Interannual Climate Variability : Applications to thailand Summer
Monsoon and Truckee/Carson Streamflows
Balaji RajagopalanNkrintra Singhrattna
Katrina GrantzCIVIL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ARCHITECTURAL
ENGINEERING DEPARTMENTUNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT BOULDER
• ITCZ northward movement:- Cover Thailand in May- Move to China in June- Southward move to cover Thailand again in August
AM
SON
TRENDS• Decreasing MAM
temperature over decadal (-0.4 C)
• Decreasing ASO rainfall (-180 mm)
• Tend to cool land and atmosphere less Increasing ASO temperature
• Trends after 1980: Increasing MAM temperature Increasing ASO rainfall (IPCC 2001 report)
• Trends are part of global warming trends (IPCC 2001)
KEY QUESTION
“What drives the interannual and interdecadal variability of Thailand
summer monsoon?”
Schematic view of sea surface temperature and tropical rainfall in the the equatorial Pacific Ocean during normal, El Niño, and La Niña conditions
..
Global Impacts of ENSO
FIRST INVESTIGATION• 21-yr moving window correlation with SOI index: Strong
significant correlation only post-1980• Spectral Coherence with SOI index
CORRELATION MAPS
SS
TS
LP
Pre-1980 Post-1980
COMPOSITE MAPS
• To understand nonlinear relationship: Composite maps (pre- and post-1980) of high and low rainfall years (3 highest and lowest years)
Hig
hLo
w
Pre-1980 Post-1980
RELATIONSHIP WITH CONVECTION PARAMETERS
Pre-1980 Post-1980
corr
ela
tion
com
posi
te
El Nino-La Nina Pre-1980 El Nino-La Nina Post-1980
ENSO COMPOSITES
• Composite maps of SSTs:
• Strong and eastward anomalies during post-1980
Pre-1980
Post-1980
HYPOTHESIS
“East Pacific centered ENSO reduces convections in Western Pacific regions (Thailand) while dateline centered ENSO decreases convections in Indian subcontinent”
Pre-1980
Post-1980
COMPARISON WITH INDIAN MONSOON
• To show changes in regional impacts of ENSO• 21-yr moving window correlation: Indian monsoon lose
its correlation with ENSO around post-1980• Thailand monsoon picks up correlation at the same time
CASE STUDIES
1997 2002
SS
TC
MA
P
SUMMARY
• Strong relationship between Thailand monsoon and ENSO during post-1980 – when the Indian monsoon shows weakening relationship
• Descending branch of Walker Cell associated with Eastern Pacific ENSO (post-1980) tend to be over Western pacific (including thailand) decreased Thailand monsoon rainfall
• Dateline-centered ENSOs (Pre-1980) tend to suppress convection over the Indian subcontinent
Predictor identification
• Good relation with monsoon rainfall (post-1980) at reasonable lead-time
• Correlate summer rainfall with large-scale climate variables from prior seasons identify regions with strong correlations and develop predictor indices
• Winds rotate counter-clockwise around area of low pressure bringing warm, moist air to mountains in Western US
Forecasting Model Predictors
•SWE •Geopotential Height •Sea Surface Temperature
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
020
040
060
0
SST Correlation
Winter SST Anomaly
Tru
ckee
Spr
ing
Vol
ume
(kaf
)
r=0.41
-100 -50 0 50
020
040
060
0
Geopotential Height Correlation
Winter Geopotential Height Anomaly
Tru
ckee
Spr
ing
Vol
ume
(kaf
)
r=-0.59
0 50 100 150 200 250
020
040
060
0
SWE Correlation
April 1st SWE (% of Normal)
Tru
ckee
Spr
ing
Vol
ume
(kaf
)
r=0.93
Forecasting Results
PredictorsPredictors• April 1April 1stst SWESWE• Dec-Feb Dec-Feb geopotential geopotential heightheight
95th
50th
5th
April 1st forecast
95th
50th
5th
0 1- 0 1 3
Forecast Skill Scores
April 1April 1stst forecastforecast
• Median skill scores significantly beat climatology in all year subsets, both Truckee and Carson
• Truckee slightly better than Carson
Truckee RPSS results
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
nov dec jan feb mar apr
Month
Me
dia
n R
PS
S (
all y
ear
s)
GpH & SWE
SWE
Truckee Forecasted vs. Observed Correlation Coeff.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
nov dec jan feb mar apr
Month
Co
rre
lati
on
Co
eff
GpH & SWE
SWE
Truckee Likelihood Results
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
nov dec jan feb mar apr
Month
Me
dia
n L
ike
liho
od
(al
l ye
ars
)
GpH & SWE
SWE
Model Skills in Water Resources Decision Support System
Ensemble Forecasts are passed through a Decision Support System of the Truckee/Carson Basin
Ensembles of the decision variables are compared against the “actual” values
Seasonal Model Results: 1992
• Irrigation Water less than typical– decrease crop size or use drought-resistant crops
• Truckee Canal smaller diversion-start the season with small diversions (one way canal)
• Very little Fish Water- releases from Stampede coordinated with Canal diversions
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
006
Truckee Spring Flow (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
006
0.01
2Carson Spring Flow (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
006
0.01
2
Lahontan Storage for Irrigation (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
010
Truckee Canal Diversion (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
010
0.02
0
Water Remaining in Truckee (kaf)
PD
F
Ensemble forecast results
Climatology forecast results
Observed value results
NRCS official forecast results
Seasonal Model Results:1993
• Irrigation Water more than typical– plenty for irrigation and carryover
• Truckee Canal larger diversion-start the season at full diversions (limited capacity canal)
• Plenty Fish Water- FWS may schedule a fish spawning run
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
010
Truckee Spring Flow (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
006
0.01
2
Carson Spring Flow (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
006
0.01
2
Lahontan Storage for Irrigation (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
0.04
Truckee Canal Diversion (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
010
Water Remaining in Truckee (kaf)
PD
F
Ensemble forecast results
Climatology forecast results
Observed value results
NRCS official forecast results
Seasonal Model Results: 2003
• Irrigation Water pretty average: business as usual
• Truckee Canal diversions normal: not full capacity, but don’t hold back too much
• Plenty Fish Water- no releases necessary to augment low flows, may choose a fish spawning run
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
015
Truckee Spring Flow (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
008
Carson Spring Flow (kaf)P
DF
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
010
Lahontan Storage for Irrigation (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
00.
015
0.03
0
Truckee Canal Diversion (kaf)
PD
F
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0.00
0.02
Water Remaining in Truckee (kaf)
PD
F
Ensemble forecast results
Climatology forecast results
Observed value results
NRCS official forecast results
CONCLUSIONS
• Interannual/Interdecadal variability of regional hydrology (precipitation, streamflows) is modulated by large-scale ocean-atmospheric features
• Incorporating Large scale Climate information in regional hydrologic forecasting models (Seasonal streamflows and precipitation) provides significant skill at long lead times
• Nonparametric methods offer an attractive and flexible alternative to traditional methods.
• capability to capture any arbitrary relationship• data-drive• easily portable across sites
• Significant implications to water (resource) management and planning
• Compare results with physically-based runoff model (e.g. MMS)
Acknowledgements
• Edie Zagona, Martyn Clark, K. Krishna Kumar, Tom Chase
• Paul Sperry of CIRES and the Innovative Reseach Project• Tom Scott of USBR Lahontan Basin Area Office • CADSWES• IUGG Travel support for Nkrintra Singhrattna