Uncovering the Essence of the Climate Change Adaptation Problem—A Case Study of the Tourism Sector at Alpine Shire, Victoria, Australia

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Uncovering the Essence of the ClimateChange Adaptation Problem—A CaseStudy of the Tourism Sector at AlpineShire, Victoria, AustraliaCarolina E. Roman a , Amanda H. Lynch a & Dale Dominey-Howes ba School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, MonashUniversity, Melbourne, Australiab Natural Hazards Research Laboratory and Australian TsunamiResearch Centre, School of Biological, Earth and EnvironmentalSciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

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To cite this article: Carolina E. Roman, Amanda H. Lynch & Dale Dominey-Howes (2010):Uncovering the Essence of the Climate Change Adaptation Problem—A Case Study of the TourismSector at Alpine Shire, Victoria, Australia, Tourism and Hospitality Planning & Development, 7:3,237-252

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Uncovering the Essence of the ClimateChange Adaptation Problem—A CaseStudy of the Tourism Sector at AlpineShire, Victoria, Australia

CAROLINA E. ROMAN∗, AMANDA H. LYNCH∗ ANDDALE DOMINEY-HOWES∗∗∗School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

and ∗∗Natural Hazards Research Laboratory and Australian Tsunami Research Centre, School of

Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney,

Australia

ABSTRACT A problem-orientated and interdisciplinary approach was employed at Alpine Shire, innorth-east Victoria, Australia, to explore the concept of contextual vulnerability and adaptability tostressors that include, but are not limited to climatic change. Using a policy sciences approach, theobjective was to identify factors that influence existing vulnerabilities that might consequently act asbarriers to effective adaptation for the tourism sector. This paper presents initial analyses carriedout to clarify adaptation goals through problem definition. Results suggest that many threats,including the effects of climate change, compete for the resources, strategy and direction of localtourism management bodies. An approximation of the common interest, i.e. enhancing capacity inbusiness acumen amongst tourism operators, would facilitate adaptability and sustainabilitythrough the enhancement of social capital in this business community.

Introduction

Climate change is gaining attention as a significant strategic issue for regions that rely on

tourism as a principal economic activity (Becken and Hay, 2007; UNWTO, 2008; Dwyer

et al., 2009). Responses to dealing with climate change impacts have been advocated

through mitigation and adaptation (UNFCCC, 2009), where mitigation reflects mostly

global and national scale interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, whereas adap-

tation centres on reducing vulnerability of natural and human systems to actual or expected

climatic change (Kane and Shogren, 2000; Reilly et al., 2001; Tol, 2005; Fussel and Klein,

2006; IPCC, 2007). Vulnerability, in this instance, is depicted as the degree to which a

system is susceptible to adverse effects (of climate change), where stressors, exposure,

sensitivity, and adaptive capacity define its character (Adger, 2006).

Tourism and Hospitality Planning & Development

Vol. 7, No. 3, 237–252, August 2010

Correspondence Address: Carolina E. Roman, School of Biological Earth and Environmental Science, University

of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia. Email: [email protected]

ISSN 1479-053X Print; ISSN 1479-0548 Online/10/030237–16 # 2010 Taylor & FrancisDOI: 10.1080/1479053X.2010.503049

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A PhD research study was undertaken at Alpine Shire in the north-east region of

the state of Victoria, Australia, to characterise climate change vulnerability and explore

implications for adaptation strategies. Previous studies carried out in Alpine Shire

(Tryhorn, 2008), recognised the importance of this community’s tourism sector as a

vital activity that promotes economic development and viability. Consequently, the

focus and scope of this research focused on identifying key vulnerabilities as well as impli-

cations for adaptation to change that are specific to the tourism sector. However, given the

limited scope for presenting all aspects of this research, only a selected portion of this body

of work is presented in this paper. The aim here is to present a snapshot of the initial

process and analytical steps taken in order to define the climate change vulnerability

and adaption problem through goal clarification (Lasswell, 1971; Clark, 2002). Using a

policy sciences approach, goal clarification helped to uncover common interests as well

as issues that were found to potentially impede adaptive responses to conditions of

change. A principal component of this part of the analysis was mapping of the social

process, which allowed for an appreciation of participant’s perspectives and values and

consequently how these shape the way problems are perceived and defined (Roman

et al., 2009; Roman, 2010).

Using Policy Sciences to Uncover the Essence of a Problem

Shortcomings with Scenario-Based Approaches to Climate Change Vulnerability

Assessments

In Australia, much of the focus in alpine studies has largely been on the biophysical and

ecological impacts that diminishing winter snow would have in the Australian alpine

environment (Whetton et al., 1996; Worboys and Pickering, 2002; Hennessy et al.,

2003; Pickering et al., 2004) as well as on snow-based winter tourism (Koenig, 1998;

Bicknell and McManus, 2006). However, in Australian alpine and indeed sub-alpine

environments where towns are located, a reduction in winter snow is not the only potential

biophysical impact to likely affect these regions (Roman, 2010). There are indications that

extreme events such as an increase in frequency and intensity of bushfires and dry spells

can significantly threaten these environments in spring and summer as precipitation

patterns change and temperatures rise (Hennessy et al., 2005; Abramson et al., submitted).

Either way, projections of climate change impacts or associated estimations of those

vulnerabilities are examples of research that embody scenarios or “end-point” approaches

(Kelly and Adger, 2000), based on outputs of climate and other types of modelling that

project future climatic conditions. Whilst useful for describing an indicative assessment

of likely future climatic conditions, the scientific framing and method that characterise

these approaches have come under question, particularly when used as sole inputs for

informing strategy, policy, planning and adaptation (Klein and Maciver, 1999; Brooks,

2003; Berkhout et al., 2006; Fussel and Klein, 2006; Klein et al., 2007; Lynch et al.,

2007; O’Brien et al., 2007). As Clark (2002) clarifies, problems in the management and

policy of environmental issues, such as climate change, are viewed only or largely

within the bounds or conceptions of positivistic science, thus creating the misperception

that only sciences in this conventional sense are required to provide the solutions to

solve problems (Clark, 2002).

There is an emerging body of literature that advocates for the characterisation of

vulnerability at a more fundamental level, i.e. by incorporating the geopolitical and

socioeconomic circumstances that construct and shape this vulnerability in the first

place (O’Brien et al., 2007). By framing vulnerability solely as an outcome of climate

238 C. E. Roman et al.

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change, it reinforces the promotion of technological means for adaptation, for instance as

evident in the planned implementation and expansion of artificial snow-making infrastruc-

ture at various Australian alpine resorts as a means to adapt to projected reductions in

future snow cover (DSE, 2004).

Characterising risks associated with climate change is an important step in the analysis

and assessment of what adaptive measures become crucial for the preservation of what is

valued. Proposed approaches for the management of climate change impacts, particularly

those with respect to adaptation strategies at the local scale, have generally dealt with the

identification of new or improved measures for coping with climate change in isolation, as

a “new” risk (Burton et al., 2002; O’Brien et al., 2007), scaffolded on existing issues of

concern and risks to consider and manage. Furthermore, studies on adaptation strategies

in place-based contexts have shown that minimising vulnerability to climate change is

only one of many community interests that must compete with other interests for

various resources (Lynch and Brunner, 2007a, 2007b).

When exploring the sustainability of the tourism sector at a destination, defining the

underlying goals that serve the common good become important considerations for the

research approach, ideally one that would include the characterisation and evaluation of

problems that impact on what is valued by the tourism sector and, just as importantly,

the community at large. One such approach is the policy sciences, where a number of

intellectual tasks are applied for the analysis and evaluation of problems (Lasswell,

1971). This contextual approach is a useful conduit towards a comprehensive analysis

of existing policies and practices, particularly in a society where the economy is largely

dominated by a climate-sensitive activity (O’Brien et al., 2007). Furthermore, this

approach allows for the development of adaptation strategies in the face of uncertainty

through the legitimisation of various forms of knowledge, an increasingly recognised

prerequisite for planning and strategy in environmental change and policy (Brunner,

1991; Bramwell and Lane, 2000; Berkhout et al., 2006; Lynch and Brunner, 2007b;

O’Brien et al., 2007; Tryhorn, 2008; Brunner and Lynch, 2010).

The Policy Sciences Approach

The term “policy sciences” was first coined in the early 1950s by Harold D. Lasswell, who

collaboratively developed the policy sciences approach. Policy science is more generally

described as

an approach to understanding and solving problems. . .The policy sciences provide an inte-grated and comprehensive set of procedures for addressing them in ways that help toclarify and secure the common interest. Helping people make better decisions is the centralobjective of the policy sciences, and the fundamental goal is to foster a commonwealth ofhuman dignity for all.

(Policy Sciences Center, 2007)

The policy sciences approach is based on three principal attributes, or dimensions

(Lasswell, 1971). First, is contextuality, recognising that decisions are derived and

made within a larger social process. Second, is problem orientation, which is characterised

by the five analytical tasks used to procedurally identify the essence of a problem. Third is

diversity in the methods employed to collect and analyse the empirical evidence that

clarifies a problem. Figure 1 illustrates in very general terms, how these dimensions

relate in the analysis of a problem. Observational standpoint is depicted here as influencing

every aspect of this analytical process as it unfolds. Clark et al., (2000) describes one’s

own observational standpoint as one’s

Uncovering the Essence of the Climate Change Adaptation Problem 239

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value orientations and biases resulting from personality, disciplinary training, experiences(parochial/universal), epistemological assumptions, and organisational allegiances.

(Clark et al., 2000, p. 21)

Clarifying one’s own standpoint is important because, as Clark et al. (2000) point out, it

helps to situate the researcher in the process as well as being able to identify, seek,

understand and discount biases.

In problem orientation the emphasis is on synthesising, rather than sequencing

intelligence and knowledge about a given problem (Auer, 2007). This requires a multi-

method and interdisciplinary approach, one that derives knowledge from various intellec-

tual foundations such as philosophy, history, science, traditional indigenous knowledge, to

name but a few (Auer, 2007). Throughout the problem orientation process there are a

number of questions which are suggested as means to defining the problem at hand

(Clark, 2002) (Table 1).

Whilst the policy sciences approach has been widely applied in many disciplines over a

number of years, more recent developments have seen its application on issues relating

to climate change (Brunner, 1991; Pielke Jr, 1997; Brunner and Klein, 1999; Morss,

2005; Lynch and Brunner, 2007a; 2007b; Lynch et al., 2007; Tryhorn and Lynch, 2009;

Brunner and Lynch, 2010). The emphasis here is on the “place-based” context in

climate vulnerability assessments for policy and decision making, particularly when

dealing with adaptation, climate variability and extremes at the local scale. The extensive

track record in the application of the policy sciences also provided confidence in its

theoretical depth and usefulness in problem solving.

It is important to reiterate that these analytical tasks are not necessarily sequentially

linear, given that the process is meant to be abductive, thus allowing for movement

back and forth between consideration of the whole and its parts as well as the theory

and the data before the researcher (Lasswell and McDougal, 1992). A comprehensive

mapping of the social and decision-making processes (the context), then provides the

detail and focus required to inform on the issues being explored (the problem).

Mapping Social Processes

Tourism has been described as a complex system of relationships, interactions, interdepen-

dencies and impacts amongst tourism agents (Becken and Hay, 2007). There are several key

Figure 1. Analysing problems in context through policy sciences principles (adapted from Lasswell, 1971;

Clark, 2002)

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actors involved in tourism, namely the private sector (or tourism industry), the public sector

(governments), the destination itself together with its many agents, tourists, and interest

groups that can include private sector organisations, non-governmental organisations,

civil societies or groups, academia, and labour organisations (Becken and Hay, 2007).

It is increasingly being recognised that an analysis of these tourism agents within the

tourism system in question would enable a certain understanding of behaviours, relation-

ships and developments (Becken and Hay, 2007), thus contributing towards a description

of the unique context within which decisions on tourism development takes place. One

way of revealing these insights is through mapping social processes, allowing for an

appreciation of desired outcomes, common goals and how they may influence the

process (Lasswell, 1971; Clark, 2002).

Mapping the social process (see Table 2) provides a guiding framework on what to think

about and what to look for (the content), as well as how to proceed in the understanding of

Figure 2. Location of Alpine Shire, Victoria Australia (adapted with permission from Victorian Electoral

Commission [VEC], 2004)

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behaviours, relationships and developments (the procedure). In general terms, the social

process is characterised by the way that actors seek to maximise values or gratifying

outcomes, through institutions or other means of identity, for an effect or influence on

their environment (Lasswell, 1971). The premise for this selective behaviour in any

given context is described by Lasswell (1971) through the maximisation postulate,

which stipulates that people complete acts in ways that are perceived by the actor to

leave him or her better off than if he or she had completed the act differently.

In this study, mapping the social context enabled us to clarify not just the common inter-

ests and goals of the community in question, but also helped to define and uncover actual

and potential barriers and conflicts that reflect the essence of the problem at stake, thus

characterising the contextual vulnerability that this community implicitly deals with.

Methodology

The policy sciences embody philosophical underpinnings in pragmatism (de Leon, 1994;

de Leon and Vogenbeck, 2007) that, by definition, adopts “what works” through an

Table 1. An overview of the five intellectual tasks of problem orientation, with examples

of questions (Clark, 2002)

Tasks Examples of questions to ask

Goal clarification What outcomes or future states do the participants prefer?

Trend description To what extent have past events approximated the preferred goals? What

discrepancies exist between goals and trends? What problems hinder

achievement of the goals?

Analysis of conditions What factors or conditions have affected or caused the direction and

magnitude of the trends described? How do these contribute to the

problem?

Projection of developments If current policies are continued, what are the probable future trends with

regard to goal realizations and discrepancies? How will these affect the

problem?

Invention, evaluation, and selection

of alternatives

What other policies or practices might achieve the goals and solve the

problems? How should these be evaluated with regard to past trends,

conditioning factors, and projected trends?

Table 2. Social process analysis (Lasswell, 1971)

Categories

of reference Interactions

Participants Actors that interact in a social context: individuals, organised or unorganised groups,

value shapers and value sharers.

Perspectives The subjectivity experienced by the actors: value demands, expectations, identities,

myths.

Situations Zones in which interactions of social process occur: spatial, temporal, organised,

unorganised.

Base values Values available to and adopted by an actor at a given time: positive or negative (power,

enlightenment, wealth, well-being, skill, affection, respect, and rectitude).

Strategies Management of base values to affect value outcomes (symbols, coercive, persuasive).

Outcomes Value indulgences and deprivations, and decision choices (intelligence, promotion,

prescription, invocation, application, termination, appraisal).

Effects Values (accumulation, enjoyment, distribution), institutions (structure, function,

innovation, diffusion, restriction).

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interdisciplinary approach to methodology. In this context, a mixed-methods approach

helps to reduce methodological blind spots and move away from fragmentation (Lasswell,

1971), where selective attention can ensue as a result of limitations inherent in any method

used in isolation. Despite the fact that a mixed-methods approach was adopted as part this

research, the first phase of this study (goal clarification) involved qualitative analysis of

both primary and secondary sources of data.

Primary data sources included in-depth semi-structured interviews (n ¼ 24) with

various participants such as tourism operators, council officers and managers, Councillors,

chambers of commerce, and regional tourism organisations. Recruitment of participants

was carried out through a snowball sampling technique (Atkinson and Flint, 2001; Saran-

takos, 2005), and ethics approval for these interviews was granted by Monash University.1

Secondary data sources included existing transcripts of in-depth semi-structured inter-

views (n ¼ 25) conducted as part of previous work at Alpine Shire (Tryhorn, 2008).

These interviews were conducted with residents, as well as council officers and Council-

lors. Other sources of secondary data included: survey data (Wallis Consulting Group,

2008; 2009), council documents and reports, and focus group data (Regional Development

Table 3. Issues of concern

Issue of concern Description of the issue Secondary data supporting findings

Representation and

leadership

State-level approach to strategic tourism

development difficult to engage with

locally, consequently affecting

branding and marketing efforts at the

local scale, functions of the Alpine

Region Tourism Board (ARBT)

ARTB, 2006, 2009; Parliament of

Victoria, 2008; Regional Development

Company, 2007

Stakeholder

relationships

Socio-political barriers evident amongst

major town centres in the Shire, as well

as conflicting interests for tourism

development with external

stakeholders such as local alpine

resorts

ARTB, 2006; Regional Development

Company, 2007

Data and statistics Lack of consistency in tourist-related data

gathering and reporting

ARTB, 2006, 2008, 2009; Parliament of

Victoria, 2008

Seasonality and

weather variability

Season-specific tourism offer, drought

conditions resulting in water

restrictions, observed extremes and

shifts in weather patterns and

variability (e.g. bushfire conditions,

onset of frosts in autumn)

ARTB, 2009; Cioccio and Michael, 2007

Natural disaster

management

Post-disaster recovery and access to

support for re-building, as well as the

media’s role in the recovery process

ARTB, 2006; Ministerial Taskforce on

Bushfire Recovery, 2003, 2007;

Parliament of Victoria, 2008; Regional

Development Company, 2007

Business capacity Skills shortage, employability and lack of

adequate business skills

ARTB, 2006; Parliament of Victoria,

2008; Regional Development

Company, 2007

Infrastructure and

transport

Closure of Mt Buffalo Chalet, road

signage and tourist attraction signage,

touring and public transport options

ARTB, 2009; Parliament of Victoria,

2008; Regional Development

Company, 2007

Exposure to external

factors of macro-

scale

Fluctuations in economic indicators such

as the value of the Australian dollar,

interest rates, inflation, GDP growth

and fuel prices

ARTB, 2006; Parliament of Victoria,

2008; Regional Development

Company, 2007

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Company, 2007). Computer-assisted qualitative data analysis was carried out using

NVivo software package, version 8.

Alpine Shire—The Case Study

Background

Alpine Shire is a local government area located approximately 270 km north-east of

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (see Figure 1). The Alpine Shire was incorporated in

1994 from the amalgamation of the Shires of Myrtleford and Bright along with parts of

the Yackandandah, Beechworth and Omeo Shires. The Shire now encompasses

4397 km2 and a resident population of 12,988 people (DPCD, 2007). The major urban

centres in the Shire are Bright and Myrtleford along the Ovens River valley, and Mount

Beauty in the Kiewa River valley.

Alpine Shire is approximately 92% public land, including parts of the Alpine National

Park and all of the Mount Buffalo National Park. Most of the freehold lands are alluvial

flood plains along the Ovens, Kiewa and Buffalo Rivers together with adjoining gentle

slopes and hills. The Shire’s economy is based on tourism, forestry and agriculture

(DPCD, 2007), with tourism being a key contributor generating up to AU$300 million

to the local economy each year (Buchan Consulting, 2003) and in 2006 employing

some 21% (or 1375 annual equivalent jobs) of the Shire’s employees (Dredge and

Thomas, 2009).

The Alpine Shire Tourism Sector

Historically, tourism has been an important activity for the Shire by providing local

employment opportunities and enhancing the economic development of the region. One

of the first activities to promote tourism growth in the 1880s was the introduction of rec-

reational skiing and the formation of local skiing clubs (Webb and Adams, 1998). Other

forms of sporting, cultural and musical events that saw the early developments of a vibrant

tourism industry were supported through the mining community when gold was discov-

ered in the mid to late 1800s (Lloyd, 1982; Bate, 1988; Webb and Adams, 1998;

ARTB, 2009). Over the years, much of the tourism development in the region has been

attributed to the introduction of and improvements in infrastructure and transport links

such as rail and roads, facilitating visitations by tourists to the region from major

centres such as Melbourne (Webb and Adams, 1998; Waugh, 2004; Tryhorn, 2008).

The Alpine Shire is characterised by a diverse range of tourism products and services

that include food and wine, festivals and events, sport, nature and adventure-based activi-

ties, touring and 4WD, winter tourism to the ski resorts, and historical attractions (ARTB,

2006; ARTB, 2009). A high degree of diversity is evident amongst the various stake-

holders and actors that combine to create a tourism sector in the region. These range

from government at various scales—national, state (agencies such as Tourism Victoria)

and local (Alpine Shire Council)—tourism operators and service providers in the

region, tourism bodies and committees such as the Alpine Region Tourism Board

(ARTB), neighbouring alpine resort operators and national parks managers.

In the valley towns and sub-alpine regions, tourism activity is significant across all four

seasons of the year but peaks during the summer months, particularly when it coincides

with public holidays, school holidays and most significantly, the events and festivals

that are characteristic of this region. Whilst winter is not identified as one of the main

tourist seasons for the valleys and sub-alpine areas in terms of visitor numbers, there

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are four areas within the Shire’s geographical boundaries that offer snow-based tourism

and related activities in winter. These areas include the two alpine resorts of Mount

Hotham and Falls Creek, which are managed by the Alpine Resorts Co-ordinating

Council (ARCC) under state-level jurisdiction. The third ski recreational area is within

Mount Buffalo National Park, which is managed by Parks Victoria. The fourth and only

alpine resort area which falls entirely within the Shire’s jurisdiction and management is

Dinner Plain Village, which is located just outside the Mount Hotham Alpine Resort.

Goal Clarification

Stated Goals and Aspiration for Tourism Development

Through “a vision of beauty and contentment”, the residents of Alpine Shire have summar-

ised and documented their aspirational vision for their community’s future to the year

2030 (Alpine Shire Council, 2005). The document titled Alpine Shire: 2030 Community

Vision adopted in 2005 following community consultation across the Shire outlines

eight key directions, based on a number of core values that the community has identified

as desirable in order to drive these key directions. These would have a significant influence

and reflection on what the community would desire as characteristic of their region and

therefore define the type of destination and tourism products that would typify and be

offered to tourists visiting the region. These key directions ultimately aim to enable

realisation of the community’s vision for its future. They include:

. unspoilt natural environment;

. sympathetic and balanced development;

. economic prosperity;

. identity and character of our towns and villages;

. services and facilities (health, wellbeing and lifestyle);

. linkages between communities;

. enhancing our strong and safe communities; and

. future focused.

These key directions formed the basic premise of initial consultation with relevant

tourism sector actors at Alpine Shire through in-depth semi-structured interviews. The

aim was to try and identify their main issues of concern particularly with respect to the

sorts of stated goals and visions documented in strategic reports such as the Alpine

Shire: 2030 Community Vision report. Of interest to the researchers of this study was

also to ascertain the extent to which climate change as an issue plays a role in these

concerns, and if so how?

Issues of Concern—The Actor’s Perspectives

Following an analysis of primary and secondary data, a number of themes and issues of

concern were identified. These common themes, in no particular order, include:

. representation and leadership;

. stakeholder relationships;

. data and statistics;

. seasonality and weather variability;

. natural disaster management;

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. business capacity;

. tourism infrastructure and transport; and

. exposure to external factors of macro-scale.

In order to get a sense of how widespread and common these views were across the

region, a selection of secondary data sources such as other studies and reports, were exam-

ined for compatible evidence. These sources are presented in Table 2 as supporting evi-

dence for the issues of concern identified by the participants interviewed. Furthermore,

these issues of concern were discussed again with a select number of previously inter-

viewed respondents, through an informal focus group session to seek their feedback and

clarify whether these were indeed issues of relevance. Via this “bottom-up” approach

(i.e. by collecting insights, responses and feedback, and supported by external secondary

data as shown in Table 2), we confirmed that these are widely recognised and on-going

issues of concern in this region and therefore provided confidence that further in-depth

analysis would bear insightful, relevant and fruitful information for those concerned in

this particular context.

Whilst there was some consistency in the way respondents were able to identify and

describe the circumstances under which these problems tend to arise in the Shire, the

importance placed on some of these concerns tended to differ depending on geographic

or spatial perspective and the participant’s role in the industry. For instance, the issue

of water availability for the provisions of services and amenity was a resounding

concern amongst those who, at the time of the interviews, were operating in areas under

water restrictions due to drought conditions along the Ovens River valley. However, it

did not feature as an issue of primary concern for those operating in areas with less strin-

gent restrictions on water usage in the Upper Kiewa River valley. Likewise, those oper-

ators that relied on snow-based winter tourism at nearby alpine resorts were more

concerned about recent seasons with less reliable snow cover and the prospects of

reduced snow-cover into the future, projecting a downturn in their own business as

fewer tourists would be visiting the region in winter for snow-dependent activities such

as skiing. However, the same concerns for lack of snow were not reflected in those respon-

dents whose businesses or tourism product were further away from the resorts in the

valleys, noting that their busier tourist visitations are experienced at other times of the

year such as summer and autumn. However, the prospect of tourism and accommodation

facilities being offered by the alpine resorts in the summer were seen a threat by valley

operators concerned over a potential reduction in their summer market share.

Therefore, understanding the unique perspective for these views—even though they

speak of the same broad issue—became an important step in the mapping of the social

process being looked at in Alpine Shire. These perspectives point to the implicit actor

values that are either indulged or deprived through particular decisions or actions in a

given situation (Lasswell, 1971).

Perceptions of and Insights About Seasonality, Weather Extremes and ClimateChange Scenarios

Experiences with Climate Variability and Extremes

As previously mentioned, one of the main interests to us was to ascertain the extent of

concern about climate change amongst participants interviewed. In light of the responses

gathered and other data analysed, several observations are possible with respect to experi-

ences with climate variability and extremes, as well as how climate change information is

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perceived, particularly when this information focuses on future scenarios for the region at

large.

The concerns expressed with respect to weather and climate centred on variability and

how this affects their season-specific tourism product, especially when faced with an

extreme event. Seasonality was raised with respect to the lack of broader tourism

product diversification in the region across all seasons, i.e. the Shire valleys relying on

summer and autumn to raise tourism revenue and the alpine resorts relying on the

winter season to make profits. Problems arise when weather variability affects the charac-

teristics of this season-specific tourism product, such as bushfires and drought for the

valley towns. This situation has left a number of tourism operators feeling vulnerable to

reduced revenue from a season that would otherwise cushion their operations for the

rest of the year. A number of operators and council staff interviewed made comments

in relation to this issue with particular reference to their experiences of the 2006–2007

summer months. A prolonged dry period saw water restrictions introduced as well as an

extensive bushfire that affected the region. Some made reference to the bushfires as

being an opportune event in keeping tourists away from the region in what would other-

wise be their busiest time of year, simply because of the drought conditions and lack of

water available for amenity. A council officer notes:

I mean we were on Stage 4 water restrictions here in the Ovens Valley. . .I mean, in a lot ofways the bushfires were a blessing because we wouldn’t have been able to, our water supplies,wouldn’t have been able to sustain that influx of tourists over Christmas had the fires notcome.

(Interview, Bright, Alpine Shire 22 May 2007)

A similar remark was made by a ranger at Mt Buffalo National Park, a popular destina-

tion in the region in summer:

we’ve been running out of water. . .if the Chalet had been open over summer, we probablywould’ve failed in water capacity because for the first time we actually, there was notenough stream flow in the major stream that feeds the Chalet. . .then the fires happened andof course we then went through a lot of water as we had fire fighters permanently stationedat the Chalet wetting down around the Chalet.

(Interview, Mt Buffalo NP, 24 May 2007)

Conversely, tourism over the summer season is somewhat different for neighbouring

alpine resorts, given their institutional structures and arrangements. Unlike in the

valleys, the summer months are not a priority for the alpine resorts in terms of capitalising

and increasing their share of the tourist market. As a resort manager mentioned:

The reality is it [summer] doesn’t affect us that much because we don’t make any moneythrough visits in summer. Our operators may, but we don’t because we don’t charge gateentry [in summer] and that’s our only visitor price point ever, even in winter. . .we don’tsell anything or do anything else other than provide gate entry which is a cost recoveryservice anyway.

(Interview, Mt Hotham Alpine Resort, 6 August 2008)

This arrangement with the state government to collect entry fees only in winter is

expected to have implications for the management boards at alpine resorts that are required

to expand and diversify their tourism product across all seasons, as a way of adapting to

drier and less reliable snow cover in winter (DSE, 2004). Likewise, this strategy will likely

have implications for stakeholder relations in the region, particularly with neighbouring

valleys and towns whose share of its tourism market peaks in the summer months.

The experience is reversed in the winter months when the valleys experience their

“down-time” in terms of visitor stays and the resorts are busiest because of their focus

Uncovering the Essence of the Climate Change Adaptation Problem 247

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on winter operations. These responses illustrate the vastly different experiences with

weather variability, seasonality and contexts between actors operating within a few kilo-

metres of each other. These observations have important implications for the types of

adaptation strategies that these actors design and employ in order to spread their

tourism products into quieter seasons, irrespective of climate change. Of particular

concern is the apparent lack of cohesiveness amongst actors and jurisdictions to bring

about a region-wide strategy to enhance tourism (see also Parliament of Victoria,

2008). As Woodhouse (2006) describes, fostering partnerships and synergies promotes

an increase in social capital that create connections within and between social networks,

a key ingredient for a successful local economy (Woodhouse, 2006). Higher levels of

social capital within a small regional community have a positive impact on the level of

economic development (Woodhouse, 2006).

Climate Change as an Issue of Concern

The majority of those interviewed felt that climate change as an issue is an important one

to consider and be aware of in principle. However, it is also an issue that is perceived as

overwhelming and beyond their capacity to accommodate, given their focus on their

day-to-day businesses, as one operator explains:

[climate change] is just way too complex for little old me. . .most people sit back and say “oh, Ican’t do a lot about it myself, I can adapt to whatever comes long”. . .people around here arejust scrappin. . .they’re on survival mode. . .people are worried about how much they’re takingfor that week and their lack of customers because of fires and droughts.

(Interview, Myrtleford, 22 May 2007)

Similarly, when discussing the likelihood of future scenarios under climate change,

the response was largely brought back to a discussion on their recent experiences and

the disruptive nature of extreme weather events, rather than concerns over adaptation to

conditions in 20 or even 50 years ahead. One council officer mentioned:

they [tourism operators] really focus on what’s happening rather than talk about what wouldhappen if it doesn’t come. . .that is systemic of the tourism industry. . .it’s about get throughthis next season—and unlike farmers, they don’t go “hmmm there might be a drought nextseason so I’ll put a bit away”.

(Interview, Bright, 22 May 2007).

Consequently, this raises some concerns about the types of climate information made

available to those with the responsibility and interest in developing tourism at the level

in which these businesses exist, particularly when presented with future scenarios that

are not based on concrete experiences. Climate change is just one of many concerns

that compete for the resources, strategy and direction of local tourism management

bodies, and in some instances taking a lesser priority in practical terms—especially at

much longer time scales. Different sets of information serve different purposes for the

intended audiences, and in this case we have found that climate variability as it affects

their short-term seasonality—both in the valleys and in alpine resorts—is of greater

relevance at their scale of operations.

Discussion and Conclusions

In this paper, we aimed to present the initial process and analytical steps taken in order to

define the climate change vulnerability and adaptation problem through goal clarification

(Lasswell, 1971; Clark, 2002). Whilst climate change and variability were raised as issues

248 C. E. Roman et al.

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of concern, in many cases implicitly and indirectly, there were also a resounding number

of other issues that were consistently brought to our attention that compete for space in the

tourism development agenda, reflecting manifestations of unresolved problems. The inte-

grated complexity seen in the types of issues raised has provided an appreciation for the

contextual vulnerability present and therefore the level of adaptive capacity that the

Shire’s tourism sector can rely upon for its resilience and sustainability as a dependable

economic activity. Whether climate change is a problem of significance for tourism, it

strongly depends on its detailed context and on how that problem is framed and defined

in the first place. This is especially the case when climate change is of interest to the

researcher or the audience targeted, thus reflecting the base values from that observational

standpoint.

Using a policy sciences approach, goal clarification allowed us to uncover common inter-

ests as well as issues that were found to potentially impede adaptive responses to conditions

of change. In this instance we found that adaptation goals effectively mean reducing net

losses of what is valued in the common interest, where active engagement to raise the

business capacity of all tourism operators in the Shire is a shared objective in enhancing

this capacity. However, when dealing exclusively with the question of climate change and

adaptation options for the Shire’s tourism sector, these were best analysed in greater depth

based on the experiences described and supporting these with empirical evidence, illustrating

the trends that have helped to shape this unique context (Roman, 2010). In this paper we con-

clude that it is critical to assess contextual vulnerability with respect specifically to seasonally

distributed climate extremes under projected future climate change. This is of particular

relevance in this case study context, given that Australia’s vulnerability to climate change

is likely to depend more on changes in the intensity and frequency of extremes in weather

events than on changes in the mean climate over time (Lynch et al., 2008).

By focusing on adaptation strategies that only relate to end-point scenario driven con-

ditions at large temporal scales, such as those associated with tackling climate change,

there is a risk of being too uni-dimensional when these only focus on climate change, poten-

tially missing a unique opportunity for enhancing resilience in the present. Issues pertaining

to climatic change are best regarded as opportunities for transformative action that bring

broader sustainability goals in a less abstract and more tangible perspective. By embedding

and streamlining climate change into this broader framework would allow for a more

integrative and effective approach, one that considers multiple intersecting pressures,

challenges and various resources and therefore establishing a solid foundation for adaptive

capacity that is compatible with conditions experienced on the ground (Wilbanks, 2003;

Deyal et al., 2006; DiSano, 2006; Soltau, 2006; Ziervogel et al., 2006).

Acknowledgements

This PhD work would not be possible without the participation, support and interest of the

people of the Alpine Shire in north-east Victoria. This work is funded by the Australian

Research Council through FF0348550 by Monash University through the Monash

Graduate Research School, and by the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research

Centre, established by the Australian Commonwealth Government. In addition, we wish

to acknowledge and thank feedback received from two anonymous reviewers. Any

remaining errors are our own.

Note

1 Approval number 2005/138, amendment granted for this research on 16 March 2007.

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