Unclassified USJFCOM/J9 4-Dec-15 1 Synthetic Environment for Analysis and Simulation (SEAS) Mark Prevette SEAS Contractor Operational Lead J9, Experiment.

Unclassified

UnclassifiedUSJFCOM/J9

Apr 18, 2023 1

Synthetic Environment for Analysis and Simulation (SEAS)

Mark Prevette

SEAS Contractor Operational LeadJ9, Experiment Support Department, Analyst Division

SYColeman

Daniel Snyder

SEAS Contractor Technical LeadJ9, Experiment Engineering Department, M&S Division

Booz I Allen I Hamilton

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 2

Outline

The SEAS Model� Traits� Goals � Sensors� Actions� Behaviors

Synthetic Environment

Relationship to J9 Concepts

SEAS Functionality

Using SEAS� Inputs� Outputs

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Apr 18, 2023 3

About SEAS

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 4

SEAS Agent Constructs

Traits

Goals

Sensors

Actions

Behaviors

Provide the formalism to develop reusable modular computational models

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Apr 18, 2023 5

Traits

Traits capture the characteristics of an agent. E.g.:

� Demographics (ethnicity, gender)

� Behavioral (aggressiveness)

� Physiological (height, immunity to certain virus)

Traits realize diversity in agent populations

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 6

Goals

Goals describe the behavioral motivation of an agent

An agent can have multiple hierarchical goals

An agent might have different courses of action to accomplish a goal

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 7

Sensors

Sensors represent the probes through which an agent retrieves information from the rest of the synthetic world

Sensors are categorized into:

� Messages

� Actions

� Environment

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 8

Actions

Actions represent the interactions of one agent with a synthetic world

Actions can be directed against:

� Self

� Another agent

� A group of agents

� Non-human entities (eg. Infrastructure)

� Conceptual targets (eg. Economy)

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 9

Behaviors

Logic defines the behavior of the agent

Behavior determines the decision that an agent make

Different traits might produce different behavior, ensuring a wide spectrum of decisions in a diverse community of agents

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Apr 18, 2023 10

The 7 Behavior Primitives

Atomic Task

Initiate

Decide

Execute

Update

Terminate

Each atomic task consists of 7 possible behavior primitives.

Initiate and Terminate are required actions.

Search, Decide, Execute, Communicate and Update are optional. However there must be at least one optional action in a workflow entity.

Search

Communicate

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 11

Emergent Behavior

Emergent behavior is the behavior exhibited by a system that is not explicitly coded in its parts, e.g.:

� Birds flying in a formation

� Sands forming a dune

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 12

Agent within a Synthetic Environment

AGENT

ENVIRONMENT

IntelligenceEmotions

Social Group/Organization

BehaviorMobilitySensors Goals

DemographicsTraitsSusceptibility

Intelligence

SavingsGroup

I

D

X

S

E

U

C

T

FinancialLife

FoodWater

PersonEnviron.

Shelter

PrintElectronic

Do NothingSecurity

Basic

Communication

Exposure

RumorTrue

InfectedImmune

Well Being

Communicate

Carrier

I

S

E

D

X

C

U

nitiate

earch

valuate

ecide

E ecute

ommunicate

erminate

Behavior Primitives

T

pdate

HealthLibertySafety

Environment

Applicable Models

Agents can be:

Individuals

Organizations

Institutions

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Apr 18, 2023 13

Must Accommodate Testing New Capabilities

Current method:•White Cell: Subjective Effects Adjudication Cell input to legacy models

Improved method: •Use off-line Simulations to Quantify Non-tangible effects as input to JWARS

Ability to conduct Joint Military Campaigns integrating all elements of national power (DIME)?

CurrentAnalytic

Capabilities

ImportantQuestions

Effects Based OperationsImpact of all elements of National Poweron desired, undesired, and unintentional effects

Non-tangible effectsLeadership, training, morale, etc

Complexity and AsymmetryNon-linear effects

•Butterfly effects•Bifurcation

Emergent behavior•Sum more than parts

Requires Continuous Tool Improvement

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 14

Operational Net Assessment

Systems Perspective

Information

Political

Military

Social

Economic

Infrastructure

Key Nodes & Vulnerabilities

Political

Military

Economic

Social

Infrastructure

Information

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Apr 18, 2023 15

An Effects-BasedOperations Approach

ObjectiveDestroy

Global Terrorist Network(s)

Economic(cut off funding)

Diplomatic(build & sustain coalition)

Military(remove Taliban regime)(destroy terrorist cells)

Effects

What has to happen to Red to achieve Blue objectives (no longer able to operate as an adaptive network with

global reach)

Integrated DIME

Actions

Key Nodes & Vulnerabilities

Resources

Information(“not a war on Islam” message)

Changing the Way We Think …Changing the Way We Think …

Actions

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Apr 18, 2023 16

Effects Based Plan (EBP)• Developed by SJFHQ and RCC Staff with JIACG* as advisory element • ONA links DIME Actions to relevant PMESII* Nodes to achieve desired Effects

•Assigns Resources to Actions

Operational Net Assessment (ONA)• Developed by SJFHQ Includes:

• Desired Effects• potential DIME Actions• critical Nodes

• Execute Operations • Conduct Effects Assessment

Relationship Between Pol-Mil

Plan, EBP/O, ONA & Simulation Tools

SEAS Agent-based DImE Campaign• Models ONA Actions on PMESII Nodes

•interactions, synergy, and muting• Quantifies Impacts of DIE Actions

JWARS Simulations Military Campaign

• Models Blue and Red combat• Quantifies Impacts of Mil Actions

DImE COAAnalysis

POL-MIL Plan• Developed by NSC-PCC•Frames crisis response and identifies end-state•Guidance to relevant elements of national power (DIME) to achieve strategic objectives•Provides: Strategic Objectives & Policy Aims

Crisis

*CPG: Coalition Planning Group*JIACG: Joint Inter-Agency Coordination Group*PMESII: political, military, economic, social, information, and infrastructure

Linked:

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 17

SEAS Features

Individual Organization Institution

Agent Civilian Leader Social Group

Organization Government Institution

Political Political Leader

Political Org Political Institution

Inter-Gov

Institution

Military Terrorist Terrorist Leader

Soldier Terrorist Org

Military Institutions

Economy Multi National Corporations

Banks

Sectors, Regional and Global Macro Economics, Central Banks, IMF, World Bank, WTO

Society Religious Leader Religious Org, NGOs, charitable orgs

Social and Religious Institutions

Information Media personality Media -- print, broadcast, internet (blog)

News wires

Infrastructure Consumption model Multi National Corporations Infrastructure

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Apr 18, 2023 18

SEAS Models

Individual Organization Institution

AgentCivilian Behavior Model

Wellbeing ModelInternational Relationship Model

PoliticalCitizen Organization Subscription Model

Political Leader Model Political Organization Model

CX Government Model

COI Government Model

International Organization Model

Military

Insurgency Model

Global Terrorism Progression Model

Terrorist Leader Model

Combatant Model

WTF Model

Terrorist Organization Model

WTF ModelMilitary Institution Model

WTF Model

Economy Leaders, Influencers, LaborSectoral Models, Multinational Corporations

Economy Model

Society

Social Group Model

Citizen Organization Subscription ModelCitizen Unrest ModelEpidemiological Model

Religious Leader Model

Religious Organization Model

Social Network Model

Charitable Organizations

Humanitarian Organizations

Social and Religious institutions - church, mosques,

Information Citizen Perception ModelRumor Propagation Model

Media Organization Model

Infrastructure Leaders, influencers, labor Multinational Corporations Infrastructure Model

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Apr 18, 2023 19

Synthetic International System

……

AA

IIEE

PP MM

SS II

World

AA

IIEE

PP MM

SS II

Region

AA

IIEE

PP MM

SS II

Country1

AA

IIEE

PP MM

SS II

Province1

AA

IIEE

PP MM

SS II

City1

International System

C1 Government

AA

IIEE

PP MM

SS II

Province2

…

…P1 Governor

P2 Governor

C1 Mayor

AA

IIEE

PP MM

SS II

CountryXAA

IIEE

PP MM

SS II

ProvinceXAA

IIEE

PP MM

SS II

CityX

CX Government PX Governor CX Mayor

Seamless integration of new areas of interest

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Apr 18, 2023 20

GovernmentGovernment

CitizenMake DecisionsMake Decisions

• Stay• Flee• Affiliation to Factions

D I M Eactions

OrganizationsOrganizations LeadersLeaders

APMESIIActions

PMESII Actions

Actions

Node

PMESII Actions

Red

Sp

in

Blu

e S

pin

New

swir

e

Red Spin

Blue Spin

Newswire

Red

Sp

in

Blu

e Sp

in

New

swire

Roads & Bridges

Communication Lines

Health Services

Security

Oil & Gas

Sea Ports

Financial

Public Utilities

Target Action at Specific Nodes

Node

Node Node

Node Node

NodeNode

NodeNode

Status/ Operational

Level

SEAS (agent-based DIME model) Overview

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 21

User Interface: Action Plan

Planner supports complex course of action construction

Unclassified


Apr 18, 2023 22

Visualization of Effects

The level of achievementof each effect is displayed

for the past 10 days

Unclassified USJFCOM/J9 4-Dec-15 1 Synthetic Environment for Analysis and Simulation (SEAS) Mark Prevette SEAS Contractor Operational Lead J9, Experiment.

Documents

unclassified usjfcomj9

agent behavior

seas slide

traits traits

agent populations

actions actions

different behavior

hamilton slide