Iva Ridjan Skov, Assistant Professor [email protected] Department of Development and Planning Sustainable Energy Planning Group UNCERTAINTIES AND RISKS IN PLANNING FUTURE GAS GRIDS AND STORAGES
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Iva Ridjan Skov,
Assistant Professor
Department of Development and
Planning
Sustainable Energy Planning
Group
UNCERTAINTIES AND RISKS IN PLANNING
FUTURE GAS GRIDS AND STORAGES
2
EU GOALS FOR DECARBONISATION
• Decarbonising the energy system istechnically and economically feasible
• In the long run, all scenarios that achievethe emissions reduction target arecheaper than the continuation of currentpolicies.
• Early infrastructure investments cost less.Immediately replacing old infrastructurewith low-carbon alternatives can avoidmore costly changes in the future.
• A European approach is expected toresult in lower costs and more secureenergy supplies when compared toindividual national schemes.
EMISSION TRENDS
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1990=1
Energy Industries Industry Transport Residential Other Total
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C O 2 e m i s s i o n s 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 1 2 * S o u r c e : E U t r a n s p o r t i n f i g u r e s – s t a t i s t i c a l p o c k e t b o o k 2 0 1 4
4
EUROPE HAS PASSED THE POINT OF PEAK GAS CONSUMPTION…
Source: Eurostat
5
Source: The Danish Energy Agency and Energinet.dk 2014.
PROJECTION OF GAS SUPPLIES FROM THE NORTH SEA 2015-2042
NORD STREAM DEBATE
6
TOTAL FAILURE OF THE EU DECARBONISING GOALS!
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE
7
http://www.heatroadmap.eu/
8
Gas Grid
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
BiogasBiogas
Gasified BiomassGasified Biomass
SyngasSyngas
GAS GRID VS. DH GRID
DH
Power PlantsPower Plants
IndustryIndustry
Waste Incin‐eration
Waste Incin‐eration
Biofuel PlantsBiofuel Plants
Hydrogen PlantsHydrogen Plants
Solar ThermalSolar
Thermal
Geo‐thermalGeo‐
thermal
Heat PumpsHeat Pumps
Electric BoilersElectric Boilers
H i g h q u a l i t y e n e r g y f o r a l o w q u a l i t y d e m a n d
L o w q u a l i t y e n e r g y f o r a l o w q u a l i t y d e m a n d
9
DO WE NEED THE GAS INFRASTRUCTURE?
WHICH GAS TYPES WE WILL USE?
10
Methane Biogas Syngas Hydrogen
Renewable gases for future energy system:
• Biogas from anaerobic digestion or upgraded with H2• Gases from biomass gasification• Power-to-gas technology
WHICH CAN BE TRANSPORTED?
Hydrogen – max 15-20% in the gas gr ids, in DK only 2%
Syngas – explosive mixture cannot be transported, need dedicated network 11
Methane Biogas Syngas Hydrogen
Liquid fuelsMethane
POTENTIAL FOR USING THEM IN THE SYSTEM
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MethaneBiogas Syngas
CHALLENGES AND RISK
• Risk of lock-in in the existing technologies
• Methane as central fuel in the system
• Do we mind conversion losses from methane
to other fuels?
• Going l iquid cannot be avoided
• Rethinking the role of the gas network
13
Iva Ridjan Skov,
Assistant Professor
Department of Development and
Planning
Sustainable Energy Planning
Group
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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