Uncertainties in implementation of common metrics Jolene Cook, 3 April 2012, Bonn With thanks to: Chris Huntingford (CEH), Laila Gohar (Met Office Hadley Centre), Nick Howarth (Oxford Univ.), Myles Allen (Oxford Univ.), Alex Lorenz (Oxford Univ.), Keith Shine (Reading Univ.), Bill Collins (Met Office Hadley Centre), Jason Lowe (Met Office Hadley Centre), David Lee (Tau Scientific)
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Uncertainties in implementation of common metrics Jolene Cook, 3 April 2012, Bonn With thanks to: Chris Huntingford (CEH), Laila Gohar (Met Office Hadley.
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Uncertainties in implementation of common metrics
Jolene Cook, 3 April 2012, Bonn
With thanks to: Chris Huntingford (CEH), Laila Gohar (Met Office Hadley Centre), Nick Howarth (Oxford Univ.), Myles Allen (Oxford Univ.), Alex Lorenz (Oxford Univ.), Keith Shine (Reading Univ.), Bill Collins (Met Office Hadley Centre), Jason Lowe (Met Office Hadley Centre), David Lee (Tau Scientific)
Uncertainties in current knowledge and use of metrics
• Physical- e.g. climate sensitivity, radiative impact
• Structural- e.g. impact of different lifetimes, choice of time horizon, relationship with
end impact
• Economic- e.g. choice of discount rate, potential for perverse incentives
• Political- e.g. winners and losers, ease of communication, stability
3 APRIL 2012UNCERTAINTIES IN IMPLEMENTATION OF METRICS
3 APRIL 2012UNCERTAINTIES IN IMPLEMENTATION OF METRICS
Value choices affect metrics
• Policy goals, e.g. 2°C, emission trading, reporting and monitoring
• What’s included in the basket of gases
• Revisions due to new evidence, e.g. SAR to AR4.
• Choice of metric, e.g. GWP, GTP or other?
• Choice of time horizon
3 APRIL 2012UNCERTAINTIES IN IMPLEMENTATION OF METRICS
Value choices affect metrics
• Policy goals, e.g. 2°C, emission trading
• What’s included in the basket of gases
• Revisions due to new evidence, e.g. SAR to AR4
• Choice of metric, e.g. GWP, GTP or other?
• Choice of time horizon
3 APRIL 2012UNCERTAINTIES IN IMPLEMENTATION OF METRICS
Value choices affect metrics
• Policy goals, e.g. 2°C, emission trading
• What’s included in the basket of gases
• Revisions due to new evidence, e.g. SAR to AR4
• Choice of metric, e.g. GWP, GTP or other?
• Choice of time horizon
3 APRIL 2012UNCERTAINTIES IN IMPLEMENTATION OF METRICS
Impact of new evidence:updating GWP values
IPCC SAR IPCC AR4
CO2 1 1
CH4 21 25
N2O 310 298
HFC23 11,700 14,800
SF6 23,900 22,800
Other HFCs 140 – 9,200 124 – 9,810
Source: IPCC 2007;
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008
High
N2O
CH4
CO2
SAR AR4
26.4% 26.2%
3 APRIL 2012UNCERTAINTIES IN IMPLEMENTATION OF METRICS