Uncertainties in Climate Change Projection – An example of monsoon precipitation over China as simulated by 2 simulations of a RCM GAO Xuejie National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation: Policy, Practice & Legislation
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Uncertainties in Climate Change Projection – An example of monsoon precipitation over China as simulated by 2 simulations of a RCM GAO Xuejie National.
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Uncertainties in Climate Change Projection –
An example of monsoon precipitation over China as simulated by 2 simulations of a RCM
GAO Xuejie
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation: Policy, Practice & LegislationBeijing, 2-4 July 2013
Uncertainties in the future emission scenarios
Natural variability
Incomplete knowledge of the climate and earth system which lead to the imperfect models
Incomplete knowledge of some external factors in the future: solar, volcano, etc.
More uncertainties in the regional scale: landuse, aerosol, lack of enough observation, etc.
Multi-model ensemble is a good way to address some of the uncertainties
Source of the uncertainties:
SRES scenario RCP scenario
Annual mean surface air temperature as simulated/projected CMIP5 multi-models over China ( )℃
CMIP5 ProjectionsCMIP5 Projections
Annual mean precipitation as simulated/projected CMIP5 multi-models over China (mm)
RCM: the ICTP RegCM3 in both simulations, same configurations, similar domain