Unc world view_820

Our Global Food System:Sustainability and the Next Food Revolution

Dr. Greg PillarAssistant Professor of

Environmental Science and Chemistry

Thrive.

The Food Situation…..

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mill

ions

of

Und

erno

ursh

ed P

eopl

ein

Dev

elop

ing

Cou

ntrie

s

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

FAO, 2009

The Food Situation…..

less than $1.00 per daymore than $1.00 per day

12%88%

less than $2.00 per daymore than $2.00 per day

40%

60%

less than $10.00 per daymore than $10.00 per day

80%

20%

World Bank Developer Indicators, 2008

The Food Situation…..

FAO, 2008

FAO, 2009

The Food Situation…..

Price of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum between 1999 and 2009

Year

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

US

Dol

lar

per

Ton

ne

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Wheat (US)Maize (US)Rice (Thailand)Sorghum (US)

The Food Situation…..

www.standeyo.comwww.msnbc.comwww.usatoday.comwww.bbc.com

By Ariana Cubillos, AP

The Food Situation…..

The Challenges…..

Thrive.

Year

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Glo

bal h

uman

pop

ulat

ion

(bill

ions

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 billion1.6 billion

2.5 billion

6.0 billion

6.5 billion

2.5 people per second (80 million per year)

Challenge #1: - Population9.2 billion

Predicted

UN Population Division, 2009

Mackenzie, 2008Goldman Sachs, 2007

Global Demand

1979-1988

1988-1997

1997-2006

2006-2015

Ave

rage

ann

ual i

ncre

ase

(%)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

PREDICTED

Maize Wheat Rice

Ave

rage

ann

ual i

ncre

ase

(%)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0 1967 - 19961997 - 2006

Mackenzie, 2008FAO-STAT, 2008

Global Supply

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Yie

ld a

nd D

eman

d In

dexe

d to

196

5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5 Global Demand (Crop Product Consumption) Global Crop Yield

modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008 Goldman Sachs, 2007

Global Supply & Demand….

Norman Borlaug(1914 – 2009)

Fossil Fuel Resources

Machines

Plant Nutrients& Amendments

Seed

WaterAgricultural Chemicals

Fertilization

Tillage

Seeding

Irrigation

Pest Control

Purchased Inputs Farm Production

Harvest &Storage

Solar EnergyPrecipitation

Carbon Dioxide

Challenge #2: “Modern” Agriculture

FAO, 2009Price of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum between 1999 and 2009

Year

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

US

Dol

lar

per

Ton

ne

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Pric

e ($

per

bar

rel)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Wheat (US)Maize (US)Rice (Thailand)Sorghum (US)Crude Oil (US)

Year

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

US

Dol

lar

per

Ton

ne

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Wheat (US)Maize (US)Rice (Thailand)Sorghum (US)

Photos by Jim Richardson, National Geographic

“The history of every nation, is eventually written in the way in which it cares for its soil”-- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Soil Degradation

17% 14%

46%

71%

49%77%

1.1 billion hectares1.0 billion hectares

0.20 billion hectares

0.38 billion hectares0.21 billion hectares

0.36 billion hectares

Land Use….

IndiaUnitedStates

Europe

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Central/SouthAmerica

China

Planted CropsTotal Arable, Rain-Irrigated Land World Soil Resources Report, 2000

Ecuador: The Ayme family of TingoFood expenditure for one week: $31.55 Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008

Challenge #3: Food Culture

United States: The Revis family of North CarolinaFood expenditure for one week: $341.98 Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008

http://libcom.orghttp://www.simonsenconsultingservices.comhttp://www.deltaflow.comhttp://blogs.princeton.edu

Corn

Feed55% Ethanol

30%

High fructoseCorn syrup

5%

Starch2%

Sweeteners2%

Cereals2%

Field corn surplusAlcohols

Sweet cornSeed4%

Total Annual U.S. Non-Export Corn Production: 10.5 billion bushels

National CornGrowers Association, 2008

1200 calories

875 calories

250 calories

170 calories

Walsh, 2009

Meat Production – Developing Countries

FAO-STAT, 2009Year

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mill

ions

of

tonn

es

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Beef and BuffaloPigPoultry

Meat Production - Grain

Grain required (kg) to produce1 kg of protein

0 5 10 15 20 25

Beef

Pork

Eggs

Chicken

Milk

http://www.ces.purdue.edu

Meat Production - Water

Water required (kg) to produce 1 kg of protein

0 200 400 600 800

Beef

Milk

Pork

Chicken

Eggs

Gary Kazanjian – NY Times

Meat Production - Feedlots

www.factoryfarm.org

www.doveimaging.com

Challenge #4: The Environment

FAO, 2008

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & NASA, 2005

Global Climate Change

Justin Mott, NY Times

Global Climate ChangeAu

stra

lian

Prod

uctio

n (m

illion

met

ric to

ns)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Wine GrapesRice

modified from NY Times, April 17, 2008

Amy Toensing

Are we approaching another food revolution?

Thrive.

Opportunity #1: Genetically Modified Foodhttp://www.american.com

http://www.macalester.edu

Flood tolerant rice (SUB1A)

Opportunity #2: Boost Production

modified from Mackenzie, 2008

Malawi

EthiopiaNigeria

UgandaMali

Mozambique

Yie

ld (

tonn

es p

er h

ecta

re)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Average National YieldPotential Yield (Plot Demonstrations)

Asia –Pacific

Latin America &Caribbean

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Developingcountries

High-incomecountries

Research and Development Spending

Modified from Pardey, Beintema, Dehmer and Wood, 2006

Ave

rage

ann

ual g

row

th (

%)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

121976 - 19811981 - 19911991 - 2000

Opportunity #3: Sustainable Agriculture

Smaller Farms (LOTS of them)

Justin Sullivan / Getty http://riotofreasons.blogspot.comhttp://greensgrow.org

Sustainable “Urban” Agriculture

http://www.verticalfarm.com/http://gliving.com http://greenbrooklyn.comhttp://activplace.com

Growing Farmers

Photos by John D. SimmonsElma C. Lomax Incubator Farm (Cabarrus County)

Opportunity #4: Food Sovereignty

http://www.panna.orghttp://www.irri.org

Von Braun & Meinzen-Dick, 2009

Selling Land Purchasing Land

“Land Grabbing”

http://www.organicfood-benefits.com/Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008

Opportunity #5: Change the Culture

Local Food Policy Networks

Thank You!!

Online: http://www.pillarenvironmental.com

Twitter: PillarESci

Email: [email protected]

Thrive.