Unburnable Carbon Concept

EASTERN MACEDONIA AND THRACE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

 SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY

 DEPARTMENT OF PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS

TECHNOLOGY 

MSC IN OIL AND GAS TECHNOLOGY 

Course: Environment ManagementAssignment: Unburnable Carbon

MSc Candidate: Trevezas Simon

How does CO2 affect global warming

Key Factors

The Cancun Agreement in December 2010 captured an international commitment to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels.

Research by the Potsdam Institute calculates that to reduce the chance of exceeding 2°C warming to 20%, the global carbon budget for 2000-2050 is 886 GtCO2. Minus emissions from the first decade of this century, this leaves a budget of 565 GtCO2 for the remaining 40 years to 2050.

Territorial CO2 emissions

Carbon Emission compared to fossil fuels consumption

Carbon emissions based to Oil & Gas Industry

2000-20500

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900886

321

565

745

180

Limit GtCO2Already UsedRemainingIndyustry's estima-tionExceeding

Unburnable Carbon

To achieve the UN limits for the next 40 years, 80% of our existing proven reserves of fossil fuels will need to stay in the ground

Stranded Asset

An asset that is worth less on the market than it is on a balance sheet due to the fact that it has become obsolete in advance of complete depreciation.

Carbon Bubble

Is the economical situation which affects the society, creating financial crisis due to misjudge of the investments risk

Increasing Energy Demand

Key Estimations

In 2035 global energy demand will be 33% higher 75% of global energy demand will be met by fossil fuels Oil consumption in 2035 will be 13% lower than today

while the demand for gas will be 20% higher Global population will increase by nearly 10,9 billion in

2050 and by 24,8 million in 2100. The largest increases are in China, India, and Southeast Asia

Emissions from transport grow will increase about 60% from 2010 to 2050

Global electricity production increases by about 85% from 2010 to 2050 and CO2 emissions from electricity grow by 46%

Temperature is projected to increase by 3.5–6.5 °C by 2100

Worlds Energy Scenarios

Symphony Scenarios:Energy supply could increase by 27% by 2050Renewable energy sources will grow 30%Fossil fuels will remain dominant resource for 59%Transport fuels will increase 20% with most of the increase being biofuels and electricityAsia will account for the largest percentage (45%) of the total energy consumption in 2050Decrease of CO2 emissions to 490-535 parts per million (ppm) by 2050

Worlds Energy Scenarios

Jazz Scenarios: Energy supply could increase by 61% by 2050Renewable energy sources will grow 20%Fossil fuels will remain dominant resource for 77%Transportation fuels increase coming from conventional fuels and a switch to natural gas Asia will account for the largest percentage of the total energy consumption 48% in 2050 Increase of CO2 emissions to 590-710 parts per million (ppm) by 2050

Developing Innovative Technology

Carbon capture, use and storage (CC(U)S) is a suitable technology (in addition to renewable electricity generation) to reduce CO2 emissions.

CC(U)S technology is already available and is potentially one of the lower-cost, deep decarbonisation optionsIssues remain such as technical feasibility at a large scale, public resistance and the upfront infrastructure cost Other new and emerging energy storage technologies, batteries, hydrogen, power to gas (hydrogen or methane), still need more research and development (R&D) before they become commercially viable

Conclusions-Recomedations

The Oil & Gas Companies must provide all technical information concerning the CO2 emissions, potential systematic risks, stress-test and fossil fuels reserves in order to inform investors

Rating agencies should provide systemic assessments and analysts develop stress –test valuations

Governments must proceed on incorporating environmental changes through guidance and strict legislation

Investors must be aware of every possible risk concerning their investment in order to avoid stranded assets

Referencies1. America CDPN. Use of internal carbon price by companies as incentive and strategic planning

tool A review of findings from CDP 2013 disclosure. 2013;(December):1-10.2. Énergie CMDEL, Gadonneix P, Kim YD, Meyers K, Ward G. World Energy Scenarios.3. Pasquier S, Saussay A. Progress Implementing the IEA 25 Energy Efficiency Policy

Recommendations 2011 Evaluation. 2012.4. Securities US, Commission E. Interpretation: Commission Guidance Regarding Disclosure

Related to Climate Change.5. Walker R. Energy transition & climate change Stranded assets , fossilised revenues. 2014;

(April).6. Exploring the concept of “ unburnable carbon .” 2014;(June).7. World Energy Outlook 2013. 2013. doi:10.1787/weo-2013-en.8. 2013 Energy and Climate Outlook. 2013.9. ALIGNING S ����������. 2014;(June).10. A n n u a l e n e r g y O u t l o o k.11. The global Status of CCS. 2014;(February). 12. http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-co2-enhanced-greenhouse-effect.htm13. http://www.pa.msu.edu/sciencet/ask_st/083194.html14. http://www.iea.org/publications/scenariosandprojections/15. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/06/carbon-bubble-threat-uk-economy-

fossil-fuels-mps16. http://www.economist.com/news/business/21577097-either-governments-are-not-serious-

about-climate-change-or-fossil-fuel-firms-are17. http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research-programmes/stranded-assets/index.php

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