Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector February 2013 Survey Update Issued 11 th March 2013 Richard Ramsey Chief Economist Northern Ireland [email protected]
Slide pack re the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index February 2013 (published 11th March, 2013)
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Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Source: Ulster Bank Private Sector Output (Index 2009 = 100) up to Q3 2012 & Markit Economics, * Jan&Feb average
50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI
Expansion
Contraction
NI output, new orders and employment all see their pace of contraction ease over the last 3 months
NI Private Sector Activity3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
Business Activity New Business Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionC
ontraction
Pace of contraction in NI new orders eases
Private Sector New Orders3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-03 Oct-04 Jun-06 Feb-08 Oct-09 Jun-11 Feb-13
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Orders increasing
Orders C
ontracting
NI’s levels of work outstanding still falling at a rapid rate but the pace of decline is easing
Private Sector Backlogs3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Feb-03 Oct-04 Jun-06 Feb-08 Oct-09 Jun-11 Feb-13
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Increasing D
ecreasing
Export orders post its best February reading in 6 years
NI New Export BusinessMonthly
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13
New Export Orders No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Grow
th AcceleratingC
ontraction Accelerating
PMI underestimated job gains in Q2 & Q3 (relative to official jobs survey) further job losses signalled in Q4 2012 but flat in Jan/Feb-13
NI Employment: PMI v QES*
35
40
45
50
55
60
Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Feb-13
PMI Index
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI & includes the public sector
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction,PMI 3mth averages except February 2013 which is based on average of January & February
The UK, RoI and NI all see a fall in their employment indices with NI posting a marginal decline in staffing levels
The PMI signals modest employment declines for the service sector in Q4. But PMI includes private sector only
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES*
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Feb-13
PMI Index
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI and includes the public sector
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction,PMI 3mth averages except February 2013 which is based on average of January & February
Local retailers still reporting falling orders & activity but pace of decline has eased
Northern Ireland Retail PMI3 monthly average
25
35
45
55
65
75
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
Business Activity New Orders Backlogs No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionC
ontraction
Profits squeeze on local retailers remains
NI Retail Input & Output Inflation3 month moving average
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
Input Costs Output Prices No Change
InflationD
eflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
Profits squeeze
NI construction sector still in the midst of a severe downturn
NI PMI has been a reasonably good predictor of actual job losses in the official employment surveys (QES)
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Feb-13
PMI Index
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains
*QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit PMI Index 50 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction,PMI 3mth averages except Feb-13 (average of Jan & Feb)
UK, RoI & NI all post contractions in construction output
Construction Sector Output - PMI3 month moving average
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