Ukrainian society (May 2015)

The current situation in the Ukrainian society

May 2015

Natalya Kharchenko, Executive Director of KIIS [email protected] Paniotto, General Director of KIIS [email protected]

Plan KIIS info Level of well-being Tolerance Trust Linguistic-ethnic groups The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians

to Ukraine Independence of Ukraine Attitude to the EU, NATO, the Customs Union Euromaidan Propaganda Situation in the Donbas Migration Volunteering

2

KIIS info

Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)  - is one of the leading private research organizations in Ukraine (more than 20 years of experience).

KIIS is working closely with the National University of "Kyiv Mohyla Academy“. KIIS has extensive experience in projects of qualitative and quantitative research. We implement about 100 projects of varying  difficulty every year.

THE COMPANY ORGANIZATION:KIIS has a small permanent scientific and administrative staff, and temporary research groups that are created when needed. The staff includes 37 permanent and 600 part -time workers (CATI interviewers, moderators of focus groups, regional supervisors,interviewers).

MOTTO: REPUTATION IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PROFIT3

Regional composition

4

The presentation mainly used the following regional division. Exclusion is marked specially .

West - Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky and Chernivtsi oblasts;

Central - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasi oblasts and the city Kyiv;

South - Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson oblasts;

East - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv oblasts,

Donbas - Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (only the territory controlled by the authorities of Ukraine).

Level of well-being

SELF-ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL STATUS

Approach that KIIS has used for many years is self-assessment of the financial status of respondents. The question is phrased as follows:

The respondents are to define their financial status themselves according to the following scale:

We do not even have enough money to eat We have enough money to eat, but it is hard to buy clothing and

shoes We have enough money for food and clothing and we can set

something aside, but it is not enough to buy expensive items (such as a refrigerator or television)

We can permit ourselves to buy some expensive items (such as a television or refrigerator), but not everything we want

We can permit ourselves everything we want

6

Subjective well-being 1994-2015

7KIIS national monitoring survey, F2F, n=2000, 1994-2015 years.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

51.7

47.2

11.4

17.770235025223916.8057650725605

8.74692874692874

18.7

We do not even have enough money for food, %

After the global crisis, in 2008, the poverty rate increased and then fell to 9%. Now the poverty rate is increasing again.

We measure the percentage of people who consider that they don’t have enough money for food, since 1994. For 10 years, from 1998 to 2008, the poverty rate fell from 52% to 12%, and this is one of the few, but important achievements of Ukraine.

8

SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC PROGNOSES

What do you think, over next year how will the economy of Ukraine change?

ЧА

СТИ

НА

І. «ЕК

ОН

ОМ

ІЧН

І» О

ЧІК

УВ

АН

НЯ

Н

АС

ЕЛ

ЕН

НЯ

І РІВ

ЕН

Ь З

АД

ОВ

ОЛ

ЕН

ОС

ТІ Ж

ИТТЯ

М

Donbass

East

South

Center

West

Ukraine

75

72

74

63

52

64

11

13

10

17

24

17

1

6

7

12

13

10

13

10

8

8

11

10

will be much or somewhat worse will be the same will be much or somewhat betterHard to say

KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

LONG-TERM ECONOMIC PROGNOSES

What do you think, over next 5 years how will the economy of Ukraine change?

ЧА

СТИ

НА

І. «ЕК

ОН

ОМ

ІЧН

І» О

ЧІК

УВ

АН

НЯ

Н

АС

ЕЛ

ЕН

НЯ

І РІВ

ЕН

Ь З

АД

ОВ

ОЛ

ЕН

ОС

ТІ Ж

ИТТЯ

М

Donbass

East

South

Center

West

Ukraine

29

27

39

19

18

23

11

16

14

9

10

11

15

30

29

51

52

42

46

27

18

21

20

23

will be much or somewhat worse will be the samewill be much or somewhat better Hard to say

KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

REFORMS IN UKRAINE According to the research of KIIS in the spring of 2015, almost none

of the Ukrainians has experienced the positive results of reforms, but the majority felt their negative consequences.

Every fourth Ukrainian agrees to suffer from reforms if it will lead to prosperity of the country.

However, almost half of the citizens do not want to suffer from reforms for Ukraine's success. They believe that reforms will not change anything. In addition, their lives are already difficult enough and they are not ready to bear additional losses.

The highest priority task for Ukraine, according to the views of the citizens, - fight against corruption and withdrawal from economic crisis.

11

Tolerance

The Bogardus ScaleI AGREE TO ACCEPT REPRESENTATIVES OF THE NATIONAL GROUPS AS...

Americans 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Belarusians 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Jews 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

And so on, total - 13 groups

13

family members ................... 1 close friends ........................ 2 neighbors ............................. 3 colleagues ........................... 4 residents of Ukraine ............ 5 Ukraine guests ..................... 6 would not allow in Ukraine . 7

The xenophobia index 1994-2014

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

14KIIS Monitoring survey, F2F, n=2000, 1994-2015 years

The level of xenophobia is measured by Bogardus social distance scale, index xenophobia – is the average of social distances from Ukraine population to 13 ethnic groups. For a long time it grew up and now it is stabilized.

From 1994 to 2001 the level of xenophobia was growing due to spread of poverty, it was consistent with the “scapegoat« theory. Then the level of xenophobia decreased but the media effect of 11 September 2001 tragedy increased distrust of foreigners, and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq contributed to the development of xenophobia. Another factor is the elections which emphasized ethnic differences.

15

The xenophobia index

16

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

All Ukraine

September 2013 October 2014

KIIS Monitoring survey, F2F, n=2000, 2013-2014 years

The xenophobia index

17

Despite of the Maidan, war, high levels of migration and the deterioration of living conditions, the average index of xenophobia is not increased but even decreased a little (from 4.15 to 4.01).

As for certain ethnic groups, it can be noticed that the attitude to Russian worsened and the attitude to Crimean Tatars somehow improved.

Interethnic relations in the conflict zone

18

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Comparison of East under control of Ukraine and Occupied Donbas (10.2014)

East under control of Ukraine (Kharkiv oblast + partially Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) Occupied Donbas

KIIS opinion poll, 18+, F2F, October 2014, East- N= 320, and Occupied Donbas - N = 142

Trust

Political trust and income

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 600000

1

2

3

4

5

Belgium

Bulgaria

Switzerland

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Germany

Sweden

Estonia

Spain

Finland

France

United Kingdom

Greece

Croatia

Hungary IrelandIsrael

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Russia

Denmark

Slovenia

Slovakia

Ukraine

Per capita GDP (PPP)

Tru

st

in p

olit

icia

n (

0:1

0)

20

Trust is one of the key concepts of democracy and market theories. Trust contributes consolidation of the public and the creation of communities in public sector, and it accelerates cooperation and interpersonal exchange in the economic sphere.

The higher level of trust in society, the higher indicators of economic growth and investment in its economy and vice versa.

Low trust reduces the ability of people to enter into a relationship, the ability to negotiate and to conclude agreements, prevents the spread of innovation and technology.

According to European comparative studies, GDP per capita and the level of political trust correlated: the higher the GDP, the higher the trust, and Vice versa, the high level of trust gives the opportunity to achieve high GDP (deviations - such as Greece - there are not very often). Unfortunately, Ukraine is among countries which take one of the last places on the trust and the last place on the GDP.

21

Dynamic of trust to the President of Ukraine

May, 2000 Sept, 2004 March, 2005 March, 2007 Oct, 2009 March 2010 Feb, 2012 Sept, 2014 Feb, 2015-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

22KIIS monitoring surveys, F2F, n=2000, 2000-2015 years

Personalized dynamics of trust to the President

May, 2000 Sept, 2004

-60.0-40.0-20.0

0.020.040.060.0

Kuchma the balance of trust-distrust

March, 2005 March, 2007 Oct 2009

-60.0-40.0-20.0

0.020.040.060.0

Yushchenko the balance of trust-distrust

Sept, 2014 Feb, 2015

-60.0-40.0-20.0

0.020.040.060.0

Poroshenko the balance of trust-distrust

March 2010 Feb, 2012 Nov, 2013 March 2014

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

Yanukovych the balance of trust-distrust

23KIIS monitoring surveys, F2F, n=2000, 2000-2015 years

24

Trust to the social institutions

Trust, % Distrust, % Balance Trust-

distrust Church 62 17 45 Mass-media 41 28 12 Non-government organizations

27 29 -2

Army 34 37 -2 Opposition 24 53 -29 President 22 66 -44 Militia 16 63 -47 Government 16 69 -53 Parlament 12 73 -61

2012

Trust, % Distrust, % Balance trust-distrust

Army 76 16 60 President 68 24 44 Church 55 18 37 Ukrainian mass-media

37 35 2

Government 39 51 -12 Militia 29 63 -34 Parliament 20 74 -54 Russian mass-media

7 77 -70

2014

24

KIIS Omnibus , F2F, n=2000, 2012-2014 years

Linguistic-ethnic groups

Census 2001:Ukrainians 78%, Russians 17%, other 5%

KIIS uses more detailed scaleI consider myself ...

1) only Ukrainian2) Ukrainian and Russian but more Ukrainian3) equally Ukrainian and Russian4) Russian and Ukrainian but more Russian 5) only Russian

26

Bi-ethnic group, October 2014

 Language

preferences

Ukrainian language

Russian language Total

1)Only Ukrainian 66,0 34,0 100,0

2) Ukrainian and Russian

10,2 89,8 100,0

3) Only Russian  2,0 98,0 100,0

27KIIS Omnibus, F2F, n=2025, October 2014

The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians to

Ukraine

Do you agree with the statement that there is a war between Russia and Ukraine?

April 2014 August 2014 September 2014

Yes -34%Yes - 26%

Yes-% 70

No - 57% No - 59%

No - 19%

DS - 9%DS -15%

DS - 10%

Опитування “ГД “КМІС в Україні і Левада-Центру у Росії, 2014р.

30KIIS poll in Ukraine and Levada-Center in Russia, 2008-2015 years

Dynamics of the positive attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and of Russians

towards Ukraine

April 2008

Septe

mber 2008

Febru

ary 2009

May 2009

October 2

009

March 2010

June 2010

October 2

010

November 2

011

Febru

ary 2012

Septe

mber 2012

Febru

ary 2013

May 2013

November 2

013

Febru

ary 2014

May 2014

Septe

mber 2014

December 2

014

Febru

ary 2015

May 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

In Ukraine to Russia In Russia to Ukraine

% of persons of Ukraine with positive attitude to Russia and % of persons of Russia with positive

attitude to Ukraine

Dynamics of positive attitudes to V. Putin and Ukraine

Jan 2000

Jul 2000

Jan 2001

Jul 2001

Jan 2002

Jul 2002

Jan 2003

Jul 2003

Jan 2004

Jul 2004

Jan 2005

Jul 2005

Jan 2006

Jul 2006

Jan 2007

Jul 2007

Jan 2008

Jul 2008

Jan 2009

Jul 2009

Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Jan 2013

Jul 2013

Jan 2014

Jul 2014

Jan 2015

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

Approve of Vladimir Putin Good attitude towards Ukraine EuromaidanAnnexation of Crimea

Donbas conflict

Active phase of2nd Chechen

war

Shot down Tu-154

over the Black Sea

Tuzla conflict

Orange revolution

Russian-Georgian

war

Worsening ofRussian-

Georgian relations

Levada-Center polls in Russia, 2000-2015 years

Regional differentiation in the attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia, the Russians and

the Russian government

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

West Central South East Whole Ukraine

2532

59

83

48

66 63

81

91

74

2 3

16

69

21

To Russia To Russians to the Russian leadership

% of adults in Ukraine with positive or very positive attitude to …

KIIS Omnibus,18+, F2F, n=2035, September 2014.

Regional composition:West - Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky and Chernivtsi oblasts;Central - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chercasi, Chernihiv oblasts and the city Kyiv;South - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson oblasts; East - Donetsk, Kharkiv oblasts. We have no possibility to conduct survey in Lugansk region at this time.

“When you think of the Ukrainian way of life, do you associate it more closely with Western values or with Russian values?“ (n=2,039)

Values Most Closely Associated with Ukrainian Way of Life

Differences by Region

East – 51 R 9 W 11 B

North – 25 R 25 W 6 B

Center – 37 R 26 W 6 B

South – 44 R 12 W 14 B

West – 7 R 53 W 18 B

IFES in Ukraine, Funded by USAID, Fieldwork -KIIS, April 8-15 2014, , F2F, National poll, n=2039

DK/NR

Other

Peaceful

Independent, patriotic

Respect for traditions

Stability

Social protection, services

Economic devp.

Respectful of people

Rule of law

Democracy

Rights and freedoms

16%

13%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

12%

14%

14%

27%

28%

“What values does Ukraine share with the West?” (n=499)

Values Ukraine shares with Russia/West

IFES in Ukraine, Funded by USAID, Fieldwork -KIIS, April 8-15 2014, , F2F, National poll, n=2039

Independence of Ukraine

Indicator

What would you like to see the relations between Ukraine and Russia?

1. Relations of Ukraine with Russia should be like with other states - with closed borders, visas and customs

2. Ukraine and Russia should be independent, however, friendly countries - with open borders, without visas and customs

3. Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state

1+2 – support of independence

How would you like to see the relations between Ukraine and Russia?(%)

45

46

2 7

They should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs

Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly - with no visa, no customs and with open borders

Ukraine and Russia should be united in one country

Difficult to answer

KIIS Omnibus, F2F, n=2022, May 2015

38

How would you like to see the relations between Ukraine and Russia?(%)

KIIS Omnibus, May 2013, F2F, all Ukraine, n=2030KIIS Omnibus, May 2015, F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region), n=2022

11

69

14

45 46

2

May 2013 May 2015

Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state?(%) by Regions

KIIS Omnibus, May 2013, F2F, all Ukraine, n=2030KIIS Omnibus, May 2015, F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region), n=2022

West Center South East Crimea

3

8

20

28

24

1 12

6

May 2013 May 2015

Dynamic of Ukraine’s independence support

01/91 01/92 01/93 01/94 01/95 01/96 01/97 01/98 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

(independence supporters per cent among the all adults

Russia’s advance to-ward Touzla

Russia’s intrusion into Georgia

Chechen wars of Russia First Second

Annexion of the Crimea

KIIS Monitoring survey, F2F, n=2000, 1991-2015 years

The level of support of independence of Ukraine has considerably increased, but    it partly related to1) The lack of voters in Crimea2) With the problems in research in areas that are not controlled by Ukraine

Attitude to the EU, NATO, the Customs Union

Donbass

East

South

Center

West

Whole Ukraine

28

19

22

5

3

11

28

32

32

56

74

51

24

33

31

25

15

25

20

16

15

14

9

13

Nonalignment neither to the European Union not to the Custom Union

FOREIGN POLICY COURSE OF UKRAINE

What integration direction Ukraine should go?

Accession to the European Union Accession

to the Customs Union

Hard to say/ No answers

ЧА

СТИ

НА

II. ЗО

ВН

ІШН

ЬО

ПО

ЛІТ

ИЧ

НІ О

РІЄ

НТА

ЦІЇ

KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

Accession to NATO membership Please imagine that referendum on whether Ukraine must join NATO is

taking place now. You can vote for joining the union, oppose or abstain - not to participate in voting. What is your choice?

Donbass

East

South

Center

West

Whole Ukraine

51

50

55

28

15

33

26

26

25

47

63

43

12

13

14

9

5

10

11

12

6

15

17

14

Against accession Hard to say/No answersI will not voteFor accession

ЧА

СТИ

НА

II. ЗО

ВН

ІШН

ЬО

ПО

ЛІТ

ИЧ

НІ О

РІЄ

НТА

ЦІЇ

KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

Euromaidan

The Euromaidan is a starting point for the modern history of Ukraine.Research on the Maidan , which was held by KIIS and Fund "DIF“, shows invalidity of somemyths that are still used in the information war. In particular, it shows that the vast majority of participants (80-90%) took part in protest independently and wasn’t organized by parties or public organizations.

46

December 8, 2013

Three polls on the Maidan

Polls:1) December, 7-8, weekend, Maidan-meeting

2) December, 20, Maidan-camp

3) February, 3, weekdays, Maidan-Sich (analog of Zaporizhzhya Sich)

Three pools on the Maidan

If you arrived, was it is organized or you arrived yourself?

Maidan-meeting

Maidan-camp

Maidan- Sich

It is organized by one of the parties 1,8 11,9 3.0

It is organized by one of the public organizations (movements)

6,3 11,9 13.3

I arrived himself 91,9 76,1 83.5

Where are you from?

Maidan-meeting

December, 7-8, 2014

Мaidan-camp

December, 20, 2014

Мaidan-Sich

February, 3, 2014

From Kiev 49,8 19,3 12.4

From the province 50,2 80,7 87.6

Propaganda

The way the propaganda works

Why did Malaysian plane crash on July 2014 in eastern Ukraine?T

rust

t

o T

V n

ews

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/26/russian-and-ukrainian-tv-viewers-live-on-different-planets/

Information war against Ukraine

Information component of a hybrid war against Ukraine is no less powerful mean of influence than traditional weapon. It gave the opportunity to annex the Crimea, provoked the armed conflict in the Donbas and provided support the actions of Russia and pro-Russian forces in some regions of the country.

The logical chain of Russian propaganda: The protests on the Maidan in the winter of 2013-2014 were organized by the

Americans and the radical nationalists; As a result, the nationalists seized the power and now threaten the Russian-speaking

population of Ukraine which lives mainly in the South and the East; Crimea was in danger but voluntarily joined to Russia and was saved from the

repression of the nationalists; Donbas rebelled and is now fighting for independence; The conflict in Ukraine is a civil war of criminal power of the nationalists against

average citizens.

The most supported propaganda statements in Russia

Data of surveys of Russian Levada-Center , September 2014- May 2015 years:

Do you agree or disagree that as a result of Kiev Maidan in February the state upheaval happened? Data for Russia

Agree 83

Disagree 10

What is your attitude toward United States of America?

Favorable 12

Unfavorable 81

Do you support joining of Crimea to Russia?

Yes 84

No 7

All Ukraine Donbas

926

80

60

Trust Do not trust

Trust to Russian mass-media

Support of pro-Russian point of view

Joining of Crimea to Russia

All Ukraine Donbas

11

27

81

57

Support Do not support

Attitude to USA

All Ukraine Donbas

59

2922

42

Favorable Unfavorable

Attitude to Maidan

All Ukraine Donbas

6141

2333

People's protestNationalist, anti-russian forces' struggle

ATO is a punitive action against civilians

All Ukraine Donbas

19

38

62

35

Agree Disagree

Data: KIIS Omnibus, February 2015, F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region) , n=2013

Effectiveness of Russian propaganda in different regions of Ukraine

Index of effectiveness of Russian propaganda (IERP) is based on 5 variables: negative perception of Maidan-2014, negative attitude to USA, support of Crimea annexation, disapproval of anti-terrorist operation of Ukrainian army, trust to Russian mass-media. If IERP equals 100, it means that every person support all 5 statements; 0 means that nobody support any.

Eastern and Southern Ukraine are the most receptive regions. These regions are predominantly Russian-speaking and traditionally vote for pro-

Russian politicians and parties. Presently the population of these regions is a main target of both propaganda and

intimidation by acts of terrorism.

Effectiveness of Russian propaganda in different regions of Ukraine

For calculation of Index of effectiveness of Russian propaganda (IERP) the data of recent KIIS Omnibus survey (all population 18+ except Crimea) were used.

Data: KIIS Omnibus, February 13-24, 2015 , F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region), n=2013

Situation in the Donbas

Humanitarian Aid Needs Monitoring The project estimated the humanitarian aid needs of community residents

in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The research was initiated and conducted on demand of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center and “Dopomozhemo TV“.

Surveys were conducted by Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) applying the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing method (CATI). Respondents at the age 18 years and over were interviewed.

Sample size: about 2100 respondents from 26-29 most needing communities in Donbas (Sometimes it was not possible to hold the survey in some settlements due to telephone communications failure).

According to the September 2014 survey results communities were classified, joining under one class if having similar aid needs structure (hierarchical cluster analysis method applied). Such an analysis made it possible to distinguish a group of communities, the residents of which are in the most aid need, and focus the further needs research on those particularly.

In the inquiries, held from October, 2014 to March, 2015, the current resident needs in foodstuff, medical supplies and non-grocery goods were investigated, as well as the work of medical and educational facilities, communications status.

59

Geography of survey

60

Situation Changes in the Community

61

35%

32%

15%

16%

32%

3%

3%

3%

1%

6%

8%

9%

21%

18%

11%

3%

4%

16%

7%

3%

September

October

November

December

March

How has the situation in you community changed over the past week?

Slightly better

Significantly better

Slightly worse

Significantly worse

14% 38%

In comparison with November-December 2014, the perception of the situation has significantly improved.

KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center , n=2100, December, 2014-2015 years.

Basic Needs

household goodsmedical suppliesfood products

34

50

45

38

58

45

% of population lacking…

March December

The deficit of medical supplies and household goods decreased, but the situation with food products remains difficult.

KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center , n=2100, December, 2014-2015 years.

Real-life Situation Estimation

Not so bad, you can live on

Life is hard, but bearable Not possible to bear our misery

Hard to say

5

4843

47

63

30

1

Which of the statements is most relevant to current situation?

December March

% settlement ‘s adults

In March 2015 the number of people, estimating the situation as bearable (“life is hard, but bearable”) has increased by 15% comparably with December,2014.

KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center , n=2100, December, 2014-2015 years.

Stressful Situations across the YearStressful situations % of references

Experience bombing 80

Feeling helpless 57

Turn out to be without means of living 47

Experiencing severe illness of relatives 24

Experiencing severe illness, surgery 22

Loss of one's work, becoming forcedly unemployed 21

Loss of one's self-belief 20

Loss of belief in mankind, encounter with meanness 16

Experiencing death of relatives 12

Serious conflicts with others 5

Exposure to threats, intimidation 3

Being a victim of abuse or robbery 2

Being a victim of theft or fraud practices 2

Living in close to suicide state 1

Experiencing other stressful situations 47

There was no stressful situations 56KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center , n=2100, December, 2014.

Migration

Assessment of the Level of Migration: Methodology

Usual surveys do not allow us to estimate the number of those who left - because if the whole family left, it does not fall into the sample. In addition, the size of our sample is small, and the evaluation of migration would be possible only for the region as a whole.

The idea is to look for those who left through social networks: we carry out a normal random sample and ask a respondent to select five the closest families and tell who left, and who remained. This allows us to: To obtain information about the families all the members of which left;

To increase the effective sample size (in particular, in 3rd wave we interviewed 700 respondents and received information about 5,200 residents of the towns included in the sample).

Fragment of the QuestionnaireAnd now several unusual questions. Please, make a list of five your closest friends, who constantly live in [NAME THE TOWN] or have lived there in January this year. These should be people from different families. We will not ask who they are or their relation to you. WAIT UNTIL THE LISTS ARE READY. We have only 3 questions on each of them:

Does this person continue to live in the town now or has left? If he(she) left, did he(she) went by him(her)self or with someone

from his(her) family? How many people were in the family and how many of them have

left?

Family Number of the family members Number of those who left12345

Migration Rates

October November December March

32%

23%

27%

30%

KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center , n=2100, December, 2014-2015 years.

Migration

According to the Ministry of Social Policy (May 21, 2015) in Ukraine there were almost there were almost 1,3 million internally displaced persons. Most of them were registered in the areas around the conflict zone, in Kiev and Kiev region.

According to the operative data of the Ministry of Emergencies of Ukraine (May 31, 2015) nearly 874 thousand people moved.

Data of different institutions can differ due to those people that live on the occupied territories but registered as internally displaced persons in the Ukrainian localities in order to receive social payments.

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70Оригінал: http://unhcr.org.ua/attachments/article/1244/map47.jpg

Characteristics of the internally displaced persons

Disproportionate number of women, children and people of retirement age compared to the average data in Ukraine;

Only about 9% of registered internally displaced persons (IDPs) indicated that they need work (~58% of the estimated economically active able-bodied IDPs);

One of the main reasons why immigrants rejected from finding work - the belief that their situation is temporary and they will go to home in the near future. Other reasons – caring for sick person, unwillingness to break the previous employment relationship, postponement looking for a job;

Among internally displaced persons who applied to the State employment service, higher proportion of well-educated persons and professionals than among registered unemployed in Ukraine in general.

71

Migration plans

72

82

15

11

December

No

Yes, I would like to, but I can't

Yes, I'm going to leave until summer

Yes, I'm going to leave, but don't know when

Hard to say

89

6

113

March

No

Yes, I would like to, but I can't

Yes, I'm going to leave until summer

Yes, I'm going to leave, but don't know when

Hard to say

In another region of Ukraine 42%

In Russia 30%

In other place within Donbas 5%

In Crimea 1%

Europe, USA, Canada 5%

Hard to say 17%

Please tell me where you or your family members are going to move?

KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center , n=2100, December, 2014- March, 2015.

When will the conflict in Donbas be over?

73

Нескольких месяцев

Следующего года

Через 2-3 года

Через 4-5 лет

Затянется боле чем на 5 лет

Никогда

Не знаю

18%

22%

9%

3%

3%

2%

44%

What do You think, when the conflict in Donbas will be over? It will happen in...

Couple of months

Next year

2-3 years

4-5 years

Will last more, then 5 years

Never

I don’t know

40% of respondents think, that the conflict will be over within a year

KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center , n=2100, December, 2014.

Should we try to find the compromise with Russia and the leaders DNR and LNR for peace in Donbas?

Peace at any cost, it is necessary to ac-cept any compro-

mises

For peace it is nec-essary to accept se-rious compromises -

but not all

Some compromise is acceptable, but not any serious conces-

sions

No concessions at all, even if you have a

war

Difficalt to say0

10

20

30

40

50

60

28

23 24

16

9

55

24

14

5

1

Ukraine

Donbas

51%

79%

74National poll KIIS -DI, n=2035, September 2014

Public opinion on Minsk agreement

Large majorities in all regions approve Minsk agreement. In Donbas, both rebel-held areas and Ukrainian-controlled territories support Minsk solution of the conflict.

Rebel-held Donbas

Nation

83

74

8

12

Approve Disapprove

Data are taken from all-nation (except Crimea) KIIS recent survey conducted in February-March 2015. 75

THE STATUS OF DONBAS (Ukraine)

In your opinion what status Donetsk and Lugansk regions should have?

Hard to say / No answer

Regions as parts of Russia

Autonomous Republics as parts of Russia

Independent states

Autonomous Republics as parts of Ukraine

Regions as parts of Ukraine but with enhanced rights

Regions as parts of Ukraine with the same rights

9.3

0.6

0.6

3.1

10.7

37.9

37.7

ЧА

СТИ

НА

VI. Т

ЕРИ

ТО

РІА

ЛЬ

НИ

Й У

СТРІЙ

УК

РА

ЇНИ

І СЕП

АРА

ТИ

СТС

ЬК

І Н

АС

ТРО

Ї

All-nation (except Crimea) KIIS survey conducted in February-March 2015, n=2013.

West Center South East

Donbas(the territories controlled by Ukraine)

Regions as parts of Ukraine with the same rights which they have now

56.1 38.4 27.6 25.0 14.6

Regions as parts of Ukraine but with enhanced rights in economic, social and humanitarian spheres

25.6 45.4 47.3 40.9 22.0

Autonomous Republics as parts of Ukraine

6.0 6.0 15.9 16.8 27.6

Independent states 2.0 1.7 1.3 7.5 4.9

Autonomous Republics as parts of Russia

0.2 0.7 1.3 0.2 1.6

Regions as parts of Russia 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.6

Hard to say / No answer 9.8 7.3 5.9 8.7 27.6

THE STATUS OF THE DONBAS (regions of Ukraine)

In your opinion what status Donetsk and Lugansk regions should have?

ЧА

СТИ

НА

VI. Т

ЕРИ

ТО

РІА

ЛЬ

НИ

Й У

СТРІЙ

УК

РА

ЇНИ

І СЕП

АРА

ТИ

СТС

ЬК

І Н

АС

ТРО

Ї

All-nation (except Crimea) KIIS survey conducted in February-March 2015, n=2013.

THE STATUS OF DONBAS (“DNR” and “LNR”)Ч

АС

ТИ

НА

VI. Т

ЕРИ

ТО

РІА

ЛЬ

НИ

Й У

СТРІЙ

УК

РА

ЇНИ

І СЕП

АРА

ТИ

СТС

ЬК

І Н

АС

ТРО

Ї

KIIS and “Telekritika” syrvey, totally 220 respondents were interviewed on the territory of “DNR” and “LNR”, February, 2015.

In “DNR” and “LNR” half of the respondents consider optimal for Donbas one of three scenarios in which Donbas remains in the country. 26% would choose the independence of their region and16% would joined to Russia.

Donbas is a part of Ukraine with the same rights as before

Decentralization for Donbas

Autonomy of Donbas

The independence of Donbas

Donbas is a part of the Russian Federation

Hard to say

12%

20%

18%

26%

16%

8%

What do you think what the solution from the situation in Donbas would be optimal?

"DNR" and "LNR"

Donbas

East

South

Center

West

Whole Ukraine

13

22

32

44

48

38

28

52

54

46

38

45

20

11

8

3

2

6

6

1

0

0

0

1

34

13

6

6

11

11

Unitary, regions have the same powers Unitary,decentralization

Federalization Division into several states Hard to say/ No answers

TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE OF UKRAINE State system of Ukraine should be...?

KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

SEPARATIVE MOODS It will be better for my locality, if it will be separated from

Ukraine

40

80

80

97

88

86

22

4

11

1

4

5

38

16

9

1

8

9

Donbas

East

South

Center

West

Whole Ukraine Rather or totally disagree

Rather or totally agree

Hard to say / No answer

ЧА

СТИ

НА

VI. Т

ЕРИ

ТО

РІА

ЛЬ

НИ

Й У

СТРІЙ

УК

РА

ЇНИ

І СЕП

АРА

ТИ

СТС

ЬК

І Н

АС

ТРО

Ї

KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

THE SUPPORT OF SEPARATISM: Direct question vs. «Secret ballot» procedure

For my locality it would be better if it separates from Ukraine, % of those who agrees

ЧА

СТИ

НА

VI. Т

ЕРИ

ТО

РІА

ЛЬ

НИ

Й У

СТРІЙ

УК

РА

ЇНИ

І СЕП

АРА

ТИ

СТС

ЬК

І Н

АС

ТРО

Ї

KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

All Ukraine West Center South East Donbas

54

1.4

10.9

4

22

5.6

3.11.7

7.58.6

26F2F interview "Secret ballot"

Volunteering

Attitudes to civic participation and volunteering

Ukrainians’ interest in different types of civic participation is growing with time.

The most widespread practice during 2014-2015 – material aid to the Army, internally displaced persons, participants of Euromaidan. Only a small percentage of Ukrainians took part in volunteering for civic movements and NGOs. Interest in volunteering and readiness to it is much lower than to providing of material help to the victims of armed conflict in Donbas (soldiers, civilians).

A quarter to a third of Ukrainians express their interest to such types of civic society activities as participation in public hearings and meetings, reports about corruption and infrastructural problems to authorized agencies, discussions of draft laws.

Each third person thinks that the problems must be solved by state, not by ordinary people. Each fifth belongs to vulnerable categories; the same number has no time and motivation to participate in civic initiatives; the same number does not know about possibilities to participate.

Participation in volunteering and charity activities to help the army and IDPs

In October, 2014 44% of Ukrainians said they helped the army and displaced persons during the year. The same number did not do it and do not plan to do. Other 7% were going to help until the end of 2014.

KIIS Omnibus, n=2025, October, 2014Hard to say

I didn't participate in any of above mentioned activities and I don't plan to do it in a short time

I didn't participate in any of above mentioned activities, but I plan to do it by the end of the year

Other

I personally traveled in the area of ATO to provide volunteer assistance

I bought military and protective equipment, etc. for the Ukrainian army

I helped to provide housing for displaced persons

I made repost of requests for help in social networks

I bought foods and medicine for displaced persons

I transferred the money to persons displaced from area of ATO

I bought foods and medicine for wounded military

I transferred the money to support wounded military

I support Ukrainian army by transfering of the money (including SMS sending to number 565, transfer to cards, etc)

5%

44%

7%

4%

0%

2%

2%

2%

5%

7%

8%

11%

27%

Thanks for your attention!

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