UK LONG RANGE FORECAST WINTER 2012/13 A Very Harsh Winter ahead

UK LONG RANGE FORECAST

WINTER 2012/13

A Very Harsh Winter ahead for Britain!!!

The Winter Forecast for 2012/13 has been made by taking many different factors into account, extensive research,

and using my 6 years of knowledge in Weather and Meteorology.

When Forecasting Long Range Weather, I take several things into account. Those are the state of the Atmosphere,

Troposphere, Stratosphere at several levels, including 10mb/hpa, 200mb/hpa, 300mb/hpa, 500mb/hpa, 700mb/hpa,

850mb/hpa, 925mb/hpa, 1000mb/hpa, Jet Stream conditions (fast rhythm of upper-level air), Surface Temperatures

(2m), Sea Temperatures, Air Temperatures, Past & Current Weather Trends, Upper & Lower Level Winds, Arctic

Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Polar Vortex, Ultraviolet (UV)

conditions from the Sun, Solar Activity i.e. Sunspot Activity and Solar Flares, Lunar Activity, El Nino/La Nina/ENSO

Conditions, Volcanic Activity and a whole host of other Scientific factors. I check the Computer Weather Model Runs,

i.e. CFS (Climate Forecasting System), GFS (Global Forecasting System), ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range

Weather Forecasting, JAMSTEC, UKMO, Temperature Anomaly Charts, Ensemble Runs from different Models and

much more.

CONTENTS OF THIS LONG RANGE FORECAST:

SOLAR ACTIVITY

Taking Solar Activity into account, and explaining how and why this can sometimes determine the Weather for the

winter, here in the UK, and correlation between recent winters, and Solar Activity levels.

QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO)

Taking a review of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and explaining how this could affect our weather during this

upcoming winter.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST’s)

Taking a review of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s), and explaining how they could affect the weather this winter.

PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)

Taking a review of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and explaining how it could potentially affect the weather

this winter.

EL NINO/LA NINA/ ENSO CONDITIONS

Detailed review of La Nina, Enso and El Nino conditions, and reporting how these can link to a cold or mild winter in

the UK, how they affect our weather, as well as global weather, and what state it is likely to be this winter.

ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)

Detailed explanation and review of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and how it affects our weather.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)

Detailed explanation and review of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and how it affects our weather.

FORECAST FOR DECEMBER, JANUARY & FEBRUARY

A highly detailed, in-depth report into how I think the upcoming winter will pan out, what events could and are likely

to happen, warning periods, detailed charts, maps etc., and detailed explanations & analysis, to help you prepare for

what lies ahead this winter.

SOLAR ACTIVITY

The chart above shows the Solar Activity on the Sun. We are now nearing the peak of the current Solar Cycle. Solar

Cycle 24 (SC24) is the 1st half of the Hale Cycle (22yr Cycle). Sunspot numbers are unusually low, especially given

we’re now nearing a Solar Maximum. Take a look back from January 2000 to the present day, and see how high Solar

Activity was on the Sun back then, and how incredibly low it is now. Below, I have some images of the Sun’s current

Sunspot Activity, which is very low for this stage in its cycle.

SOLAR ACTIVITY (continued…)

The coming winter for the Northern Hemisphere looks to be shaping up for another massive event perhaps bigger

than what we experienced in 2011/2012. The last winter coincided with the highest level of EUV and FUV since the

beginning of SC24. In fact the current level is not far above the SC22/23 minimum. At present the EUV levels are less

than half of the values recorded during the peak of SC23.

There is strong evidence that low EUV and FUV are major players in determining the jet stream position and strength

along with major changes to ozone quantities at different levels of the atmosphere. UV also has an influence on the

NH polar vortex which when the conditions are right favour a negative AO over winter months. When both of these

options come together, the greatest effect is felt in the Northern Hemisphere. During the summer in the NH and the

winter at present in the SH, the mainstream media is picking up the relevance of the jet stream patterns that are

occurring. This is a shift from the previous year of not only of the knowledge gained but also of the increased activity

of the jet stream through 2012. If this pattern continues into 2013, we should witness some big extremes in weather

with blocking highs and masses of cold air feeding from the poles.

Last season was mixed with most of the USA getting off with a warm winter, but other parts of Europe, Asia and

Alaska experienced the massive event which was named the "Great Winter Freeze of 2012". The position of the jet

stream was the culprit of the mixed weather which mainly saw a positive AO, but this season has the chance of being

different.

QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO)

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies

and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere, which last season mostly favoured the formation of a positive AO. When

the QBO is in easterly mode the planetary waves that disrupt the NH polar vortex are more likely to occur which

tends to produce a negative AO. A negative AO in the past few winters has positioned the jet stream so that the USA

and Western Europe (including the UK & Ireland) feel the worst of the Arctic cold air movement and blocking highs

that perpetuate this event. The current and expected position of the QBO is looking to favour a negative AO this

season. The white area is the easterly flow.

QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO) (continued…)

The ENSO position will also play a role but more on a local scale. Some of the coldest temperatures recorded in the

UK occurred in Dec 2010, when we were in El Nino territory. All the models that are produced by the meteorology

groups are pointing towards an El Nino forming this winter in the NH. I am not so sure the models have the all

required data to predict accurately as we are in a different paradigm with low solar output and a negative PDO. Most

that ascribe to AGW ignore the effects of solar and ocean influences on climate, and prefer to claim everything is

man-made, the models suffer the same fate in my opinion.

The ocean temp anomaly diagram at the opening of this article, shows a negative PDO position which has the

customary hot spot in the central northern pacific. Last year the prevailing winds that come with a negative PDO

moved some of this warm water towards New Guinea, which in turn fuelled the Walker circulation pump that drives

the trade winds, which in turn builds up water against Asia and influences the level of the Thermocline. This pushes

cold water from below that surface off the South American coast and flows towards Asia with assistance of the trade

winds. It is still too early to call but July has seen a change with the SOI going positive and the trade winds are

maintaining. There is still a high chance of a La Nina forming which would make three in a row.

Even if a weak El Nino forms and the QBO has no effect on the AO position, the jet streams will still play a major role

in forming massive winter events that should be with us for the next 20 years at least, if my solar predictions

continue to play out. So far everything is right on track.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST’s)

Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) are linked to Northern Blocking. Currently warm in the North Atlantic.

PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) / ENSO / EL NINO / LA NINA

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a pattern of Pacific climate variability that shifts phases on at least inter-

decadal time scale, usually about 20 to 30 years. The PDO is detected as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific

Ocean, north of 20° N. During a "warm", or "positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern

ocean warms; during a "cool" or "negative" phase, the opposite pattern occurs.

In the GRAPH 1 below, you can see the multi-decadal behaviour of the PDO with warmth from 1922 to mid-1940s,

cold until the late 1970s, warmth 1979 to 1998 and cold again in recent years.

You see how the Multivariate ENSO Index shown in GRAPH 2 below, follows that pattern in the longer term.

PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) / ENSO / EL NINO / LA NINA (continued…)

The ENSO and PDO seem to reinforce each other and track well together. We should expect PDO to bounce some but

if the Pacific is really in the cold mode, the El Nino should be brief and at most moderate like they were from the

1950s through the 1970s and again in the middle 2000s. La Nina should return if not by/during winter during 2010.

See in the following cross-sections below, how the current ocean warmth is in the upper ocean and is a bit stronger

than the warmth last year and very similar to June 2002.

PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) / ENSO / EL NINO / LA NINA (continued…)

It is much weaker than the very warm plume and suppression of the thermocline in 1997/98

Most of the climate ENSO models range from neutral to strong El Nino (NASA GMAO). We believe a briefly moderate

El Nino is likely like we saw in 1965/66 and 1976/77, both El Nino’s during cold PDO and with an east QBO, the phase

most likely this winter.

The June through January 1977 anomalies were as shown below. CFS model from CPC seems to agree.

Meanwhile, global temperatures continue to slide, as shown here.

ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)

The Arctic Oscillation refers to opposing atmospheric pressure patterns in northern middle and high latitudes.

The oscillation exhibits a "negative phase" with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at

mid-latitudes (about 45 degrees North), and a "positive phase" in which the pattern is reversed. In the positive

phase, higher pressure at mid-latitudes drives ocean storms further north, and changes in the circulation pattern

bring wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland, UK and Scandinavia, as well as drier conditions to the western United

States and the Mediterranean. In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of North

America as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the

Rocky Mountains warmer than normal, but leaves Greenland, Newfoundland, Europe, and Asia colder than usual.

Weather patterns in the negative phase are in general "opposite" to those of the positive phase, as illustrated below.

Over most of the past century, the Arctic Oscillation alternated between its positive and negative phases. Starting in

the 1970s, however, the oscillation has tended to stay in the positive phase, causing lower than normal arctic air

pressure and higher than normal temperatures in much of the United States and northern Eurasia.

Effects of the Positive Phase | Effects of the Negative Phase

As you can see from the graph to the right,

which shows the current Arctic Oscillation

(AO) Phase, it’s trending towards

NEGATIVE Phase. This indicates High

Pressure over the Polar Regions.

This has been trending NEGATIVE

consistently for some time now, and it’s

this factor that I’m taking into very serious

consideration, when finalising this Winter

Forecast, and pin-pointing the detail.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)

The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North

America to Europe and much into Northern Asia. The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the

subtropical high and the polar low. The corresponding index varies from year to year, but also exhibits a tendency to

remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years.

POSITIVE NAO - The Positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical High Pressure centre and a

deeper than normal Icelandic low. The increased pressure difference results in more, and stronger winter storms

crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track. This results in warm, wet winters in Europe and in cold and

dry winters in northern Canada and Greenland. The eastern US experiences mild and wet winter conditions

NEGATIVE NAO - The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low. The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway. They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe. The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions. Greenland, however, will have milder winter temperatures

As you can see from the graph to the right,

which shows the current NAO Phase, it’s

trending towards NEGATIVE Phase. This

indicates High Pressure over the North

Atlantic Regions.

This has been trending NEGATIVE

consistently for some time now, and it’s

this factor that I’m taking into very serious

consideration, when finalising this Winter

Forecast, and pin-pointing the detail.

MY OFFICIAL WINTER FORECAST FOR WINTER 2012/13 – United Kingdom of Great Britain!

Long Range Forecast Issued: Thursday 25th October 2012!

This Winter Forecast has been made, following extensive reviews of the Climate Forecasting System (CFS) Models,

Global Forecasting System (GFS) Models, JAMSTEC Models, Jet Stream Forecasts, Precipitation Charts, Surface/Air

Pressure Charts, and Atmospheric Temperature at different Levels. I’ve also reviewed the Arctic Oscillation (AO),

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), Solar Activity,

Current, recent and past Weather Patterns, Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’S), ENSO/El Nino/La Nina conditions, and

many more different factors & Science, to come to an overall conclusion for the Winter ahead. For more information

on my Techniques, check the ‘About Me’ section of my website.

The Chart below is the Predicted Temperature anomaly, for the period of December 2012, & January and February

2013. This Chart is from the JAMSTEC Model, and it shows well-below average Temperatures across the UK,

therefore indicating the distinct possibility of a cold, possibly very cold winter ahead. The second UKMO 2m

Temperature Anomaly Chart, also shows the probability of a cold, or very cold winter, with well-below AV Temps.

DECEMBER 2012

December is looking more likely to have cold spells at the start of the month, with very cold weather potentially

setting in from around mid-month onwards. Why do I think this? Well, look at the atmospheric height anomaly chart

for the period of November, December and January. The greens are below-normal heights (Low Pressure), and the

oranges are above-normal heights (High Pressure). This indicates Northern Blocking, High Pressure over Greenland,

and the North, with Low Pressure to the South. These are good set-ups for bitter cold and snow. It puts the UK on

an Easterly flow, as air around HP flows clockwise, & air from LP flows anti-clockwise, therefore put the UK between

the two, we get a biting Easterly wind. Depending on the angle of the HP, we could see N-NE winds, therefore

bringing frequent, and heavy snow showers to the North and East of the UK, with some spreading inland towards the

Midlands, and other parts of England, including the South and Southeast.

December 2012 - Some suggested weather scenarios for the UK - Generally, December 2012 will be much colder,

and with the potential for much more snow, than the December of 2011, and the December of 2010. The coldest

periods are likely to occur around the 6th, the 12th, the 20th and the 25th to the 31st. The period that will produce

more snow will be from the 6th through to around the 20th, with the 6th to the 16th probably being the period when

the greatest snow events will occur in December 2012. Very windy conditions should be expected from the 11th

through to around the 19th. The area from Hull down to the south coast of England may well experience heavy snow

and blizzard conditions from around the 11th through to around the 19th, the westerly and northerly areas of the UK

may be more likely to see heavy snow fall from around the 19th through to the 31st, although all areas of the UK may

well experience severe cold and snow as from the 6th, through to months end. We cannot rule out milder conditions

on occasion, however, the general prognosis is for colder than average temperatures, with well-below average

temperatures as well. With Low Pressure running to the south of the UK, and High Pressure to the north, this then

puts us in an ideal setting for heavy snowfall, as fronts move westwards on the northern flank of the Lows. High

Pressure is likely to be situated across the North Atlantic and Greenland, with the Lows taking a more southerly

track. The Jet Stream is likely to be south (JSS), therefore putting the UK on the cold side of the Jet, Low Pressure

tracking further south than otherwise would be the case at this time of year, and above normal heights across

Greenland. This enhances the weakening of the Polar Vortex (PV), therefore promoting the release of cold air from

the Arctic Region. December will be a cold month, with periods of very cold weather.

The above dates aren’t to be taken too literally, as they’re only a guide to which forecast window time-frame, the

events are likely to occur.

SCENARIO CHART – DECEMBER 2012

This Chart is a POTENTIAL Pressure Scenario that I've created, which gives an idea as to how I personally think the December Pattern will pan out. It shows the Jet Stream (highlighted in Purple) well to the South of the UK (JSS) Jet Stream South, which I expect will take Low Pressure and unsettled weather across Iberia, Spain, and through the Mediterranean. I expect High Pressure across Greenland, and through the North Atlantic, with both a Negative NAO and AO. High Pressure is also expected to extend across Scandinavia, with a Trough into Western Russia, and Eastern Europe. There is the potential for some Low's in the English Channel & Northern France, as Low Pressure moves west to east, through the south. There is also likely to be some pretty significant snow events, as Low Pressure moves east through the Channel, creating a biting easterly wind, whilst the Low itself, throws up weather fronts, which will come in from the East/NE. These significant snow events are likely to affect the Midlands, Wales, Southern England, East Anglia, and the Southeast. The rest of the UK is also likely to get heavy snow, in the form of heavy snow showers from the North Sea. A NE wind is likely to pick up moisture from the North Sea, and drop it as heavy snow across Southern, Northern and Eastern Scotland, Northeast England, and Northern England, & through into the Midlands. Once the Lows clear away, all of the South & East of England, Midlands, and East Anglia are likely to get feeds of snow showers from the East, as the Lows clear away. Then the High builds its ridges in from the NW, leaving bitterly cold conditions both by day and night. This pattern of Lows to the south is likely to repeat itself a few times during December. Even when the High Pressure is in charge, I expect snow to come to much of the UK, in the form of heavy snow showers. There are likely to be significant snow events for many during December, more especially in the South, parts of the Southwest, Southeast, Eastern England, NE England, the Midlands, and across Wales. SCROLL DOWN FOR MORE DECEMBER GRAPHICS

DECEMBER 2012 PRECIPITATION FORECAST

Precipitation this December is expected to vary across the Country. Scotland and the Northern Isles are expected to

have well-below average precipitation amounts, with the exception on Southern and SW Scotland, where

precipitation is expected to below average, rather than well-below average. Moving further south into Northern

England, precipitation amounts are expected to be below average, with the exception of the Northeast and east of

the region, where amounts are expected to be around average. North Wales is expected to see below average

precipitation, mid-Wales is likely to have average precipitation, and south Wales, above-average precipitation.

The Midlands and the north of East Anglia are likely to see average precipitation amounts. Southwest England,

Southern England, the rest of East Anglia, and Southeast England, are likely to see above-average precipitation. As

my ideas state colder air across the UK in December, the likelihood is that much of the precipitation will fall as snow,

and Southern, SE, and Eastern England, could see a significant amount of snow, before months end.

DECEMBER 2012 - POSSIBLE SCENARIO(S) CHART

CHRISTMAS 2012 WEATHER……

As it currently stands, the weather for the Christmas period looks potentially good for the chances of a White

Christmas for 2012. With me expecting much colder and snowier weather during December, I have decided to do a

Chance percentage (%) on the chances of a White Christmas in all Regions of the UK.

SCOTLAND – 60%

NORTHERN IRELAND – 55%

NORTHERN/NW/NE ENGLAND – 60%

WEST & EAST MIDLANDS – 60%

EASTERN ENGLAND – 60%

SOUTHEAST ENGLAND – 60%

SOUTHERN ENGLAND – 60%

SOUTHWEST ENGLAND – 50%

WALES – 60%

JANUARY 2013

January 2013 is likely to begin on a rather cold note for many parts of the UK. High Pressure is likely to situate to the

NW of the UK, and across Greenland, giving a North-North-easterly wind. Low Pressure will again more likely track

south, as we endure a southerly tracking Jet Stream (JSS). The forecast is similar to December, with snowfall coming

in the form of bands and showers from the North & NE, and from fronts swinging west on the northern flank of Low

Pressure in the channel. These synoptics have potential to create significant snowfalls from the start of the month,

right until the end. Temperatures overall, will be much colder than average for much of the country (as shown in the

Temperature Anomaly chart below.

January 2013 - Some suggested weather scenarios for the UK - Generally, January 2013 has the potential for

becoming one of the coldest and snowiest Januarys in living memory, and very likely for several years at least,

although I expect January 2013 to be exceptionally cold throughout, the very coldest period will probably start

around the 10th then continue through to the 31st. The heaviest snowfall should be expected as from the 5th to

around the 15th. The windiest period will probably start around the 10th and continue through to months end, with

the strongest winds more likely near the 10th & the 18th. The north-easterly to southerly latitudes of the UK will

probably see the heaviest snow-fall from the 5th to the 15th with the westerly to northerly areas of the UK probably

seeing the worst snow conditions from around the 15th to the 23rd, then the north-westerly to north-easterly areas

from around the 23rd through to months end. Drier and cold conditions are more likely to occur from the 1st to

around the 5th, whilst blizzard conditions are more likely from around the 10th to around the 21st, with the mid to

southerly, Se’ly, and easterly areas of the UK more likely to see the worst blizzard conditions in this time frame. Frost

expected throughout.

The above dates aren’t to be taken too literally, as they’re only a guide to which forecast window time-frame, the

events are likely to occur.

SCROLL DOWN FOR SCENARIO CHART FOR DECEMBER 2012

SCENARIO CHART – JANUARY 2013

High Pressure is possible across Iceland, Greenland, North Atlantic, Scandinavia, and north Russia. This would put

Britain and Ireland under a cold NE/E Wind. Very cold air is likely with this setup, and with the Jet Stream

(highlighted in purple) heading south through the Mediterranean, a series of Low Pressures are likely to push east

through the English Channel and Northern France. The central/south UK will be on their northern flank, therefore

strong easterly/ne winds are probable, alongside the risk of significant falls of snow.

These conditions are expected throughout much of the month.

JANUARY 2013 PRECIPITATION CHART

Precipitation in January is expected to vary across the Country. Scotland and the Northern Isles are expected to have

well-below average precipitation amounts, with the exception on Southern and SW Scotland, where precipitation is

expected to below average, rather than well-below average. Moving further south into Northern England,

precipitation amounts are expected to be below average, with the exception of the Northeast and east of the region,

where amounts are expected to be around average. North Wales is expected to see below average precipitation,

mid-Wales is likely to have average precipitation, and south Wales, above-average precipitation.

The Midlands and the north of East Anglia are likely to see average precipitation amounts. Southwest England,

Southern England, the rest of East Anglia, and Southeast England, are likely to see above-average precipitation. As

my ideas state colder air across the UK in January, the likelihood is that much of the precipitation will fall as snow,

and Southern, SE, and Eastern England, could yet again, see a significant amount of snow, before months end.

December and January are very likely to be the worst months of the coming Winter, with plenty of snow, much

colder than average temperatures, and perhaps very cold at times.

JANUARY 2013

FEBRUARY 2013

This is where things get a little trickier in terms of forecasting what is likely to happen with the Blocking High

Pressure across Scandinavia, Greenland, and Iceland. At the moment, I’m going to stick my neck on the line, and say

that I currently expect the High Pressure to shift a bit, and reposition, perhaps somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic, and

extending across Greenland & Iceland. See the Scenario Chart on the next page for more on this. Yet again, I expect

February to continue on the same basis as December & January, in terms of colder than average temperatures. See

the chart below, for more on the Temperature Anomaly Chart.

You can see the UK is in Green territory, indicating colder than average temperatures for most.

February 2013 - Some suggested weather scenarios for the UK - Generally, February 2013 also has the potential for

severe winter conditions, but probably less so than January 2013. The heaviest snow-fall is more likely from the 3rd

through to the 13th. The coldest periods will probably occur from around the 7th to the 11th, then from around the

17th to months end. The windiest periods are more likely to occur around the 7th, 12th and the 26th. Heavy snow is

more likely to occur from the 3rd to the 12th, the mid to lower latitudes of the UK may see the worst of the

conditions at this time, with the worse conditions for the westerly, and northerly areas of the UK probably seeing the

worse conditions as from around the 12th to months end. The likeliest time for blizzard conditions will be from

around the 5th to around the 13th, then from around the 26th to months end. Frost expected throughout.

The above dates aren’t to be taken too literally, as they’re only a guide to which forecast window time-frame, the

events are likely to occur.

SCROLL DOWN FOR FEBRUARY 2013 SCENARIO CHART

SCENARIO CHART – FEBRUARY 2013

During February, I am expecting High Pressure across Scandinavia, stretching across Iceland and across Greenland.

This is likely to continue pumping milder air northwards on its western edges, across Greenland, Iceland, and into

the Arctic. This movement will misplace Polar air across the Arctic Regions, and move it southwest across Western

Europe and Eastern Europe. A trough is expected across Sweden, and Western Russia, stretching down into the Low

Countries. This trough is likely to bring much of the snow events during February across the UK, with the Jet Stream

kinking to the South. Low Pressures will then edge SE, therefore potentially giving Central & Southern Britain

significant snowfalls. A ridge of High Pressure across Kazakhstan & Turkey is likely to pump mild air northwards

across Central Russia, displacing colder air further west. This pattern could potentially go into lock-down mode;

therefore the cold weather across Western Europe may last for a considerable section of the month, perhaps

throughout the entire month. It’s possible that milder air could at times; move in across the far west of Ireland.

SCROLL DOWN FOR THE FEBRUARY 2013 PRECIPITATION CHART

FEBRUARY 2013 PRECIPITATION CHART

Precipitation in February is expected to vary across the Country. Scotland and the Northern Isles are expected to

have well-below average precipitation amounts, with the exception on Southern and SW Scotland, where

precipitation is expected to below average, rather than well-below average. Moving further south into Northern

England, precipitation amounts are expected to be below average, with the exception of the Northeast and east of

the region, where amounts are expected to be around average. North Wales is expected to see below average

precipitation, mid-Wales is likely to have average precipitation, and south Wales, above-average precipitation.

The Midlands and the north of East Anglia are likely to see average precipitation amounts. Southwest England,

Southern England, the rest of East Anglia, and Southeast England, are likely to see above-average precipitation. As

my ideas state colder air across the UK in February, the likelihood is that much of the precipitation will fall as snow,

and Southern, SE, and Eastern England, could yet again, see a significant amount of snow, before months end.

Below is a Summary, summarising the 2012/13 Winter Forecast, and some Warning Periods to watch out for.

FEBRUARY 2013

WINTER FORECAST SUMMARY

Overall, this Winter is expected to be much colder than average, with the potential for some significant snowfall

events at times. December and January are expected to be the worst of the three months. Significant snowfalls are

expected during December, January, and February. I’ve slashed the odds of a White Christmas, and I am sticking my

neck on the line, and saying that a large proportion of the UK will have snow already on the ground on Christmas

Day, with perhaps some snow in places on the day itself. It’s a huge call, but something I’m sticking with.

OVERALL STATISTICS – Winter 2012/2013

DECEMBER PRECIPITATION: Above average in the South, average or below in the North.

DECEMBER TEMPERATURE: Well below average for many, especially the South & East.

JANUARY PRECIPITATION: Above average in the South, average or below in the North.

JANUARY TEMPERATURE: Well below average for many, especially the South & East.

FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION: Above average in the South, average or below in the North.

FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE: Well below average for many, especially the South & East.

WARNING PERIODS FOR WINTER 2012/13

DECEMBER

The coldest periods are likely to occur around the 6th, the 12th, the 20th and the 25th to the 31st. The period that will

produce more snow will be from the 6th through to around the 20th, with the 6th to the 16th probably being the

period when the greatest snow events will occur in December 2012. Very windy conditions should be expected from

the 11th through to around the 19th. The area from Hull down to the south coast of England may well experience

heavy snow and blizzard conditions from around the 11th through to around the 19th, the westerly and northerly

areas of the UK may be more likely to see heavy snow fall from around the 19th through to the 31st, although all

areas of the UK may well experience severe cold and snow as from the 6th, through to months end.

JANUARY

I expect January 2013 to be exceptionally cold throughout, the very coldest period will probably start around the 10th

then continue through to the 31st. The heaviest snowfall should be expected as from the 5th to around the 15th. The

windiest period will probably start around the 10th and continue through to months end, with the strongest winds

more likely near the 10th & the 18th. The north-easterly to southerly latitudes of the UK will probably see the

heaviest snow-fall from the 5th to the 15th with the westerly to northerly areas of the UK probably seeing the worst

snow conditions from around the 15th to the 23rd, then the north-westerly to north-easterly areas from around the

23rd through to months end. Drier and cold conditions are more likely to occur from the 1st to around the 5th, whilst

blizzard conditions are more likely from around the 10th to around the 21st, with the mid to southerly, Se’ly, and

easterly areas of the UK more likely to see the worst blizzard conditions in this time frame.

FEBRUARY

The heaviest snow-fall is more likely from the 3rd through to the 13th. The coldest periods will probably occur from

around the 7th to the 11th, then from around the 17th to months end. The windiest periods are more likely to occur

around the 7th, 12th and the 26th. Heavy snow is more likely to occur from the 3rd to the 12th, the mid to lower

latitudes of the UK may see the worst of the conditions at this time, with the worse conditions for the westerly, and

northerly areas of the UK probably seeing the worse conditions as from around the 12th to months end. The likeliest

time for blizzard conditions will be from around the 5th to around the 13th, then from around the 26th to months end.

WINTER FORECAST 2012/2013

This Forecast was made between the period of the 17th and the 25th October 2012.

Forecast Issued: Thursday 25th October 2012.

Issued by: Will Cooper

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WILL COOPER WEATHER

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Wiltshire Astronomical Society, UK