FEWS NET UGANDA [email protected] www.fews.net/Uganda FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update December 2016 Staple food prices atypically increasing alongside prospects of below-average harvest KEY MESSAGES • Following below-average 2016 production, some poor households in Karamoja have depleted household food stocks in December, three months earlier than normal. Many are atypically dependent on markets and above-average prices are lowering food access. In Napak, Kaabong, and Moroto, poor households are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in April and May, the peak of the lean season. • October to December second season rainfall was below average and erratic in many bimodal areas and December harvests are expected to be below average. This will be the second consecutive season of poorer than normal harvests in many bimodal areas. Due primarily to poor production prospects, staple food prices atypically increased between October and November. Food availability and access are lower than normal and some poor households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). • According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 350,000 South Sudanese have fled to Uganda since July 2016. Newly arrived refugees are heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance and are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). UNHCR’s funding appeal for South Sudanese refugees is only 65 percent funded. If funding gaps limit humanitarian assistance to refugees, it is expected many will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and May 2017. CURRENT SITUATION In many bimodal areas, October to December second season rainfall was below average and erratically distributed. The most significant rainfall deficits were around the Lake Victoria basin, where rainfall was 20-30 percent below average (Figure 1). Rainfall was also below average in the northwest and crop damage from moisture stress was observed in this region during a FEWS NET rapid food security assessment in November. Second season production is expected to be below average in Kumi, Serere, Ngora, Katakwi, and Amuria of Teso, Lamwo, Kitgum, Pader, and Agago of Acholi, Iganga and Bugiri of Busoga, Kalungu, Gomba, and Masaka of Greater Masaka, Rakai, Isingiro, Rwengo, and Nakasongola in the cattle corridor, and Arua, Koboko, Yumbe, and Adjumani in the northwest. Poorer than normal pasture conditions were also observed in the cattle corridor in late November, as a result of below-average rainfall. Rainfall in December is improving water and browse resources slightly, but higher than normal land surface temperatures are also contributing to the deterioration of pasture and water. Livestock body conditions are slightly below normal due to increased migration in search of adequate pasture. Staple food prices atypically increased in most markets between October and November. The retail price of maize increased 11 percent in Kabale, Masindi, and Mbale and 9 percent in Masaka, Iganga, and Tororo. Usually during this time food prices Projected food security outcomes, December 2016 to January 2017 Source: FEWS NET Projected food security outcomes, February to May 2017 Source: FEWS NET This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. To learn more about this scale, click here.
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FEWS NET UGANDA [email protected] www.fews.net/Uganda
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government
UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update December 2016
Staple food prices atypically increasing alongside prospects of below-average harvest
KEYMESSAGES
• Following below-average 2016 production, some poor households inKaramoja have depleted household food stocks in December, threemonthsearlierthannormal.Manyareatypicallydependentonmarketsandabove-averagepricesareloweringfoodaccess.InNapak,Kaabong,andMoroto,poorhouseholdsareexpectedtobeinCrisis(IPCPhase3)inAprilandMay,thepeakoftheleanseason.
• October to December second season rainfall was below average anderraticinmanybimodalareasandDecemberharvestsareexpectedtobebelowaverage.Thiswillbethesecondconsecutiveseasonofpoorerthan normal harvests in many bimodal areas. Due primarily to poorproductionprospects, staple foodprices atypically increasedbetweenOctober and November. Food availability and access are lower thannormalandsomepoorhouseholdsareStressed(IPCPhase2).
• According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR),over350,000SouthSudanesehavefledtoUgandasinceJuly2016.Newly arrived refugees are heavily dependent on humanitarianassistance and are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). UNHCR’s fundingappeal for South Sudanese refugees is only 65 percent funded. Iffunding gaps limit humanitarian assistance to refugees, it is expectedmanywillbeinCrisis(IPCPhase3)betweenFebruaryandMay2017.
CURRENTSITUATIONInmanybimodalareas,OctobertoDecembersecondseasonrainfallwasbelowaverageanderraticallydistributed.ThemostsignificantrainfalldeficitswerearoundtheLakeVictoriabasin,whererainfallwas20-30percentbelowaverage(Figure1).RainfallwasalsobelowaverageinthenorthwestandcropdamagefrommoisturestresswasobservedinthisregionduringaFEWSNETrapidfoodsecurityassessmentinNovember.SecondseasonproductionisexpectedtobebelowaverageinKumi,Serere,Ngora,Katakwi,andAmuriaofTeso,Lamwo,Kitgum,Pader,andAgagoofAcholi,IgangaandBugiriofBusoga,Kalungu,Gomba,andMasakaofGreaterMasaka,Rakai,Isingiro,Rwengo,andNakasongolainthecattlecorridor,andArua,Koboko,Yumbe,andAdjumaniinthenorthwest.
PoorerthannormalpastureconditionswerealsoobservedinthecattlecorridorinlateNovember,asaresultofbelow-averagerainfall.RainfallinDecemberisimprovingwaterandbrowseresourcesslightly,buthigherthannormallandsurfacetemperaturesarealsocontributingtothedeteriorationofpastureandwater.Livestockbodyconditionsareslightlybelownormalduetoincreasedmigrationinsearchofadequatepasture.
StaplefoodpricesatypicallyincreasedinmostmarketsbetweenOctoberandNovember.Theretailpriceofmaizeincreased11percentinKabale,Masindi,andMbaleand9percentinMasaka,Iganga,andTororo.Usuallyduringthistimefoodprices
Projected food security outcomes, December 2016 to January 2017
Source: FEWS NET
Projected food security outcomes, February to May 2017
Source: FEWS NET
This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. To learn more about this scale, click here.
UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update December 2016
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2
decrease as green harvests replenish household andmarket stocks.The increase inprices is likelyduetopoorerthannormalproductionprospects and below-average first season production. Althoughlivestockbodyconditionsareonlyslightlybelowaverage,priceshaveatypicallydeclinedinrecentmonths,giventheoversupplyoflivestockfor sale. Many households are selling more livestock than usual,anticipatingthatpasturewillbe insufficientduringthedryseasontoadequately support currentherdsizes. InNovember, thepriceofanaverage goat in key markets was 20 percent below both the sametime last yearand the five-yearaverage.Thecombinationofabove-average staple foodprices and lower thannormal livestockprices isdecreasinghouseholdpurchasingcapacity.Onaverage, the saleofagoat bought 78 kilograms of sorghum in November, whereas itpurchased85kilogramsatthesametimelastyear.
In Teso, Busoga, greater Masaka, northeastern Acholi, most of thenorthwest,thecattlecorridor,andtheLakeVictoriabasin,manypoorhouseholds are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). These regions had below-average first season production in June and depleted householdstocks earlier than normal. Many are now atypically dependent onmarkets to access food, yet household purchasing capacity is belowaverage.Poorhouseholdsarecopingbyseekinglaboropportunitiesinnearby towns, receiving remittances from relatives, increasingcharcoal production, and selling poultry. Some poor households intheseareashavealsoreceivedfoodassistancefromtheGovernmentofUganda,localhumanitarianorganizations,andchurches,whohavecollectively provided food assistance in Bukomansimbi, Lwengo,Kalungu,Kaliro,Serere,Katakwi,andAmuria.
ThedryseasonisongoinginKaramoja,butduetohigherthannormalland surface temperatures, of 3-7 degrees Celsius above average,pastureandwaterresourcesaredepletingfasterthanusual.Conflicthas been reported between Karamojong pastoralists in Kaabong,Kotido, and Moroto, and pastoralists from Turkana who havemigrated their livestock to Karamoja. Livestock body conditions,though,remainnearaverage,asdrypastureisstilllargelyadequate.ItislikelysomepoorhouseholdsinMoroto,Napak,andpartsofKaabongandAbimhavedepletedhouseholdfoodstocksthismonth,threemonthsearlythaninanormalyear,andarenowrelyingprimarilyonmarketstoaccessfood.However,thepriceofsorghumis10-30percentabovethefive-yearaverageandisdrivinglowerthannormalfoodaccess.Householdpurchasing capacity, asmeasured by labor-to-sorghumand charcoal-to-sorghum terms of trade, is 20-40 percent belowaverageinmostdistricts.According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 350,000 South Sudanese have fled toUgandasinceJuly2016.Refugeesnowmakeup20percentormoreofthepopulationinAdjumani,Kiryandongo,Isingiro,andYumbeDistricts(Figure2).NewlyarrivedrefugeesarehighlydependentonhumanitarianassistanceandarecurrentlyreceivingfullrationsfromtheWorldFoodProgramme(WFP).TheyareexpectedtobeStressed(IPCPhase2!).
UPDATEDASSUMPTIONSAlthoughmost of the assumptionsmade in FEWS NET’s Uganda Food Security Outlook for October 2016 toMay 2017remainvalid,thefollowingassumptionshavebeenupdated:• DecembersecondseasonproductioninbimodalareasofUgandawillbebelowaverage.Theworstaffectedareasof
Teso,greaterMasaka,andAcholiareexpectedtohavesignificantlybelow-averageproduction.However,overallproductionisstillexpectedtoresultinanationalsurplus.
• PastureandwaterresourceswillremainbelowaverageinbothKaramojaandthecattlecorridorthroughApril2017.
Figure 1. CHIRPS-estimated rainfall anomaly,percentofnormal,October1–December5,2016
Source:USGS/FEWSNET
Figure2.SouthSudaneserefugeepopulations insettlementsinUganda,December2016District Refugee
populationHostpopulation
Percent ofpopulationmadeupbyrefugees
Adjumani 197,418 237,100 43%
Kiryand-ongo
66,935 282,400 19%
Isingiro 120,415 525,100 19%
Yumbe 230,000 535,600 30%
Source:UNHCR
UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update December 2016
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3
PROJECTEDOUTLOOKTHROUGHMAY2017Asecondseasonofbelow-averageproduction isexpected inmanybimodalareas.Poorhouseholdswillhave lower thannormalhouseholdfoodstocksthroughMay2017and,subsequently,incomefromcropsaleswillalsobemuchlowerthannormal.Itislikelystaplefoodpriceswillremainabovethefive-yearaveragethroughouttheprojectionperiod.Withlowerthan normal income and high prices, household purchasing capacity will be below normal.Manywill continue to copethrough seeking labor opportunities in nearby cities and increasing petty trade, although food accesswill remain belownormal.PoorhouseholdsinTeso,Busoga,GreaterMasaka,northeasternAcholi,mostofthenorthwest,thecattlecorridor,andtheLakeVictoriabasinarelikelytoremainStressed(IPCPhase2)fromDecember2016throughMay2017.
InKaramoja,expectedfoodsecurityoutcomesremainasreportedintheUgandaFoodSecurityOutlookforOctober2016toMay2017.MostdistrictswillremainStressed(IPCPhase2)throughMay,duetoearlierthanusualdepletionofhouseholdstocksandseasonallylowincome-earningopportunities.InNapak,Kaabong,andMoroto,whereharvestsweresignificantlybelowaverage,poorhouseholdsareexpectedtobeinCrisis(IPCPhase3)inAprilandMay,thepeakoftheleanseason.
ThenumberofSouthSudaneseseekingrefugeinUgandaisexpectedtoincreasethroughatleastMay2017.Duetofundinggapsandhighneeds,theWorldFoodProgramme(WFP)hasreducedassistancetohalfrationsforallrefugeeswhoarrivedinUgandabeforeJuly2015.Thenearly200,000refugeesimpactedbythisareexpectedtoremainStressed(IPCPhase2):inadditiontothereductioninfoodassistance,mosthavelimitedcapacitytocultivategiventhesmallplotsizesallocatedtorefugees.Furthermore,October-Decemberrainfallwaspoorinallrefugeesettlementsandrefugeeswillalsoharvestlowerthannormalamounts inDecember.Mostnewlyarrivedrefugeeswereunable tocultivateandareheavilydependentonhumanitarianassistance.Giventhathumanitarianassistance isnotplanned, funded,and likely throughMay2017,newlyarrived refugees in Adjumani, Kiryandongo, Isingiro, and Yumbe Districts are expected to be Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in theabsenceofhumanitarianassistance.SEASONALCALENDARFORATYPICALYEAR
Source: FEWS NET
ABOUTTHISUPDATEThismonthlyreportcoverscurrentconditionsaswellaschangestotheprojectedoutlookforfoodinsecurityinthiscountry.ItupdatesFEWSNET’squarterlyFoodSecurityOutlook.Learnmoreaboutourworkhere.
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